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The Brexit Thread

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8 hours ago, Bill said:

right that you suggested the only two dates available before mid January

whatever stunnng revelation will we be offered up next ?

it will be a white Christmas this year, or it won't

more in the 2020 Old Bore's Almanack where hand crank predicts both the moon and tide times, the correct Saints days and also predicts the day March 29th will fall on (the one after March 28th)

 

Bill
if there's to be a GE Nov 28th would be my thought

Poor Bill.

 
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1 hour ago, Herman said:

A compromise date would be ten and a half of December. 

A "landing zone" .......FFS

Edited by Van wink

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Most of Cummings "cunning plans" have crashed and burned, he's going to get lucky eventually, a single issue December GE may well give BJ the majority he wants and the mandate to punch his WA through.

As for scrutiny, whilst parliamentary scrutiny is currently being denied there will be plenty of time for public scrutiny in the lead up to the election.

Edited by Van wink

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9 hours ago, Surfer said:

So why did he pull it - or was it only ever a Trojan Horse to force a GE? 

I think it is as I posted last Thursday:

This move by Johnson looks to me (or it would if I existed and was not some photoshopped hologram) like what I think in American Football is called an option play. In this case aimed at keeping happy those  who have been telling him to aim for an immediate election and those who believe he can get his Withdrawal Deal through Parliament without being amended to death.

There is no doubt Johnson got a much larger majority for the second reading than anyone expected. Actually getting a majority of any kind was significant. But then the fear/argument kicked in that the deal would get amended not to his liking, so it was pulled. So Johnson managed to please both those who had been telling him to use the HoC and those wanting an election. And now to be able, as also said last week, to campaign in that seemingly inevitable early election on a blatant populist 'People versus Parliament' stance:

Voters see that Johnson did something that seemed impossible in getting the EU to renegotiate (actually that involved getting the border back in the Irish Sea which was what the EU wanted all along but that is a nicety most won't care about) and then got it voted on approvingly in the Commons (something May never managed), only to be thwarted by some arcane procedure. And by MPs who thwart the ref. result by rejecting Brexit deals but cannot come up with any alternative.

And the problem with that pitch is that there is enough truth in it to be believable for many voters. Outside the Westminster bubble it must be hard to understand why MPs keep on voting against whatever gets proposed over Brexit but have never voted for some kind of solution.

Edited by PurpleCanary
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4 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Rare to see a turkey voting for Christmas

Happened twice in 3.5 years so not that rare. The last time, there were a lot more of them though

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3 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Rare to see a turkey voting for Christmas

I'm actually wondering just who are going to be the turkeys though!

I think we can generally agree the SNP and LD will do well - possibly extremely eye poppingly well.

For the Tories it's a gamble - can they hold off the Brexit party (will Farage yet again be the bridesmaid not the bride) and take Labour 'Leave' seats or will they be eaten alive by the LDs and fail to make serious Labour inroads? Tactical voting by 'Remainy' voters too?

For Labour its hard to see any true success so will this be last we ever see or hear of Corbynism (every cloud has a silver lining🙂 )

Whatever I expect a high turnout in the younger vote - they will be heard - and perhaps a smaller turnout in the older (weather - cold - dark). That may not help Johnson ! 

So who's afraid of the big bad voter wolf really ?

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2 hours ago, PurpleCanary said:

I think it is as I posted last Thursday:

This move by Johnson looks to me (or it would if I existed and was not some photoshopped hologram) like what I think in American Football is called an option play. In this case aimed at keeping happy those  who have been telling him to aim for an immediate election and those who believe he can get his Withdrawal Deal through Parliament without being amended to death.

There is no doubt Johnson got a much larger majority for the second reading than anyone expected. Actually getting a majority of any kind was significant. But then the fear/argument kicked in that the deal would get amended not to his liking, so it was pulled. So Johnson managed to please both those who had been telling him to use the HoC and those wanting an election. And now to be able, as also said last week, to campaign in that seemingly inevitable early election on a blatant populist 'People versus Parliament' stance:

Voters see that Johnson did something that seemed impossible in getting the EU to renegotiate (actually that involved getting the border back in the Irish Sea which was what the EU wanted all along but that is a nicety most won't care about) and then got it voted on approvingly in the Commons (something May never managed), only to be thwarted by some arcane procedure. And by MPs who thwart the ref. result by rejecting Brexit deals but cannot come up with any alternative.

And the problem with that pitch is that there is enough truth in it to be believable for many voters. Outside the Westminster bubble it must be hard to understand why MPs keep on voting against whatever gets proposed over Brexit but have never voted for some kind of solution.

Finally there is one rock-solid prediction about Brexit that can be made. That if Johnson wins the election - he ends up with an outright majority or can absolutely count on enough non-Tories  - then Brexit will happen, and no later than January 31 2020.

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3 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

For the Tories it's a gamble - can they hold off the Brexit party (will Farage yet again be the bridesmaid not the bride) and take Labour 'Leave' seats or will they be eaten alive by the LDs and fail to make serious Labour inroads? Tactical voting by 'Remainy' voters too?

https://www.tactical-vote.uk/

It's been up for a few months now. Spread wide and far and let's get Boris' Bastards out of office.

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I suspect the LD’s will have a greater impact on the Labour vote than the Brexit party will have on the Tories. 

Some good odds there for our JC supporters.

6C27632A-AFDD-413E-90DA-AD41066AF5FD.png

Edited by Van wink

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4 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said:

Finally there is one rock-solid prediction about Brexit that can be made. That if Johnson wins the election - he ends up with an outright majority or can absolutely count on enough non-Tories  - then Brexit will happen, and no later than January 31 2020.

By agreeing to an election there is a very good chance that Labour has finally concluded our exit from the EU.

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12 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said:

Finally there is one rock-solid prediction about Brexit that can be made. That if Johnson wins the election - he ends up with an outright majority or can absolutely count on enough non-Tories  - then Brexit will happen, and no later than January 31 2020.

Impossible. We have been informed by the Sage of East Runton for the past three years that Brexit will never happen. He's put £1000 down at the bookies on that outcome to demonstrate he's not all skirt and no knickers.

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Just now, kick it off said:

For anyone who tells you how this election is going to end up, tell them this. According to the British Election Study around 35-45% of *all* voters switched parties at each of the past two elections. Those elections have been the most volatile ever.

And the tactic of keeping Boris out of the public eye cannot feasibly be sustained through an entire election campaign. There is a whole ream of ammo to throw at him that he won't be able to answer without looking like the bumbling idiot he is. Why isn't he dead in a ditch? What happened to his plan to lie down in from of the bulldozers at Heathrow? How many more journalists has he wanted beaten up? What does he feel about his financial backers betting on the pound collapsing?

America voted for Trump and we laughed. Are we really, collectively as a nation, as futten ret@rded as that?

I worry the answer may be yes.

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And the tactic of keeping Boris out of the public eye cannot feasibly be sustained through an entire election campaign. There is a whole ream of ammo to throw at him that he won't be able to answer without looking like the bumbling idiot he is. Why isn't he dead in a ditch? What happened to his plan to lie down in from of the bulldozers at Heathrow? How many more journalists has he wanted beaten up? What does he feel about his financial backers betting on the pound collapsing?

America voted for Trump and we laughed. Are we really, collectively as a nation, as futten ret@rded as that?

I worry the answer may be yes.

Well it is up to the opposition parties to make hay with all his misdemeanours. And I know it will be repelled with "dirty politics" and "avoiding spelling out your won policies" but this incompetent egomaniac needs taking to task in public and not be allowed to sway people with his undoubted talent for humour to avoid the real question.

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4 minutes ago, canarydan23 said:

And the tactic of keeping Boris out of the public eye cannot feasibly be sustained through an entire election campaign. There is a whole ream of ammo to throw at him that he won't be able to answer without looking like the bumbling idiot he is. Why isn't he dead in a ditch? What happened to his plan to lie down in from of the bulldozers at Heathrow? How many more journalists has he wanted beaten up? What does he feel about his financial backers betting on the pound collapsing?

America voted for Trump and we laughed. Are we really, collectively as a nation, as futten ret@rded as that?

I worry the answer may be yes.

Anyone voting for Corbyn and Abbott would need to be certified. Not only have Labour lost their marbles they will soon be losing their deposits. Labour, the party that stands for.......?? haven't got a clue....

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Just now, Rock The Boat said:

Anyone voting for Corbyn and Abbott would need to be certified. Not only have Labour lost their marbles they will soon be losing their deposits. Labour, the party that stands for.......?? haven't got a clue....

RTB old boy, you're a walking advert for IQ-weighted elections. But please would you, an idiot, tell me more about how you need to be certified to vote for the first black woman to make it into the House of Commons who made it into Cambridge in the 70s as a black woman with a welder for a Dad and a nurse for a Mum.

Likewise, why not bleat about leftie snowflakes getting triggered whilst crying to the PinkUn admin team and sobbing whilst begging to get people who hurt your feelings banned.

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1 hour ago, kick it off said:

For anyone who tells you how this election is going to end up, tell them this. According to the British Election Study around 35-45% of *all* voters switched parties at each of the past two elections. Those elections have been the most volatile ever.

Absoutely. This is a massive gamble by Johnson. The sane# thing to do would have been to allow MPs to scrutinise the WA further, perhaps even allowing some changes on, for example, workers' rights, subject to EU approval (which for that would have been forthcoming), and then call for the WA to be passed.

Particularly pointing the finger at the MPs who voted for the second reading but then switched sides on the basis that it was being rushed through, and demand that since their complaint had been dealt with they should switch back to backing him and making Brexit happen.

 

#I would substitute 'safer' for 'sane'.

Edited by PurpleCanary

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37 minutes ago, Van wink said:

I suspect the LD’s will have a greater impact on the Labour vote than the Brexit party will have on the Tories.

Psephologically that doesn't really matter @Van wink as there tend to be very few LD/Lab marginals in our FPTP system. Should Remoaners vote tactically and the Labour vote collapse in Con/LD marginals it has zero impact seat wise.

Labour has two major challenges, 1) Scotland where the SNP could wipe them out and 2) the old industrial seats where it is obvious that the Tories are targetting. In neither is the LD a major factor.

 

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10 minutes ago, canarydan23 said:

RTB old boy, you're a walking advert for IQ-weighted elections. But please would you, an idiot, tell me more about how you need to be certified to vote for the first black woman to make it into the House of Commons who made it into Cambridge in the 70s as a black woman with a welder for a Dad and a nurse for a Mum.

Likewise, why not bleat about leftie snowflakes getting triggered whilst crying to the PinkUn admin team and sobbing whilst begging to get people who hurt your feelings banned.

Oh dear, you really are triggered. And a walking advertisement for everything wrong with the looney left.

It doesn't matter whether she is black, a woman, Dad is a welder or Mum is a nurse.

What matters is - is she competent? And as she demonstrates every time she appears in public, she is the total opposite of competent, and as such has become a national laughing stock - along with her lover boy Jeremy Corbyn.

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Just now, BigFish said:

Psephologically that doesn't really matter @Van wink as there tend to be very few LD/Lab marginals in our FPTP system. Should Remoaners vote tactically and the Labour vote collapse in Con/LD marginals it has zero impact seat wise.

Labour has two major challenges, 1) Scotland where the SNP could wipe them out and 2) the old industrial seats where it is obvious that the Tories are targetting. In neither is the LD a major factor.

 

One just have to look at the polling figures and if they are accurate - and I realise it is a big if - then LidDems are neck and neck, and sometimes even ahead of Labour. FPTP doesn't favour LibDems but their brand is strong while Laboour's brand is non-existant, so they should do better than they have done for years, expect them to capture between 25-30 seats.

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