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Jools

The Brexit Thread

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Hard left, far right, disaster capitalists. What could this disperate group all get out of a weakened UK? 

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On 15/05/2019 at 16:48, Herman said:

At what point did WTO rules become the go to soundbite for the Brexiters? 

I can't speak for others but it's been my position from the outset, Herman

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8 hours ago, BigFish said:

Seems like some of the Brexit Party candidates are on record with some interesting views. Legalising pornography involving children, legalising Internet Pornography in general, supporting the IRA, in favour of revolutionary communism.

Perhaps some ideas for Fraudage when he does put a manifesto together (along with abolishing the NHS)

Seems like a post designed for a bit of whatabouttery, BF. I'll decline bcz you probably know what I'm gonna say anyway.

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19 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

Seems like a post designed for a bit of whatabouttery, BF. I'll decline bcz you probably know what I'm gonna say anyway.

Maybe @Rock the Boat, although not really aimed at someone who can come back with such an appropriate reply.

It was more about what a disreputable bunch of chancers The Brexit Party are. They do little to advance the cause of Brexit with their vapid attention seeking.

There may be a pragmatic route to Brexit but it will never involve Farage (and for that matter as you mention it, it will never include the stupidity of WTO rules)

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1 hour ago, BigFish said:

It was more about what a disreputable bunch of chancers

 

The Brexit Party are doing very well for a bunch of disreputable chancers:

poll-brex.jpg?resize=540,334&ssl=1

A shocking new YouGov poll has found that the Brexit Party has hit 35%, a number Ed Miliband thought could make him Prime Minister. The poll sees the Tories slump down to single figures and the Lib Dems overtake Labour. ChUK and UKIP were polling so low they didn’t merit a spot on Guido’s chart😀

Election Maps UK has visualised a set projection for this poll, showing the Brexit Party winning every region in England and Wales except London, but even there picking up the same number as seats as the Labour Party, and even receiving 1/3 of the seats in Scotland. If the results in less than a week’s time are anything like this it would be a remarkable feat for a party that has existed for just five weeks… 👍

 

Here are the law breaking, disreputable chancers, SmallFry:

led-by-donkeys-breach-electoral-law-copy

Anti-Brexit campaign ‘Led By Donkeys’ have been busy racking up the FBPE retweets for a fresh swathe of billboards they’ve put up around the country. The billboards are branded as Brexit Party adverts with a fake Brexit Party web address and feature phrases like “Attack the NHS” and “Target Gay People”. They’ve now said they’re taking down the “Target Gay People” billboard after a major backlash, Guido hears the Brexit Party are also considering legal action…

As Led By Donkeys are no doubt aware, as they’ve put a small imprint on their posters, the UK is in a regulated election period for the EU elections. Under Electoral Commission guidance Led By Donkeys clearly qualify as a non-party campaign. This means they are subject to legal spending limits:

“non-party campaigns for or against a political party, or particular categories of candidate, including campaigns on policies or issues closely associated with a particular party or category of candidates”

“Spending in the regulated period that can be reasonably regarded as intended to influence voters to vote for or against candidates or parties in the European Parliamentary elections will count towards these limits.”

Even though Led By Donkeys are yet to appear in the Electoral Commission’s database, Guido will give them the benefit of the doubt and assume they are in the process of registering. This means they have the following spending limits which have been in force from 23rd January:

spending-limits.png?w=504&ssl=1

Led By Donkeys have helpfully catalogued every billboard they put up between February and April, counting 255 in total. They’ve also tweeted out four new billboards which have gone up this week. On their own crowdfunder, which has raised over £400,000, they estimate the cost of each billboard at £1,000:

lbd-cost-1.png?resize=540,179&ssl=1

Even the first 8 posters which they say were “guerrilla operations” they put up themselves and around a dozen outside England, this means that by their own count they have spent well over £230,000 since January. They put up the 8th “guerilla” poster on January 23 itself, all the others appear to have been put up after this. This puts them over £70,000 over the legal spending limit and in massive breach of electoral law…

 

Hopefully, The Brexit Party will be able to use turn this smear tactic to their advantage. The more the establishment try and smear/lie/fool the electorate, the bigger the backlash is going to be 👍

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You can never underestimate how many selfish pensioners there are in the UK......

image.thumb.png.e0363bedb27a569bb357306b8c1632e0.png

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Guido whining about illegal spending?! Right wingers are terrible at comedy normally.......

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On 12/05/2019 at 11:44, Herman said:

"No Answers" Nigel.

 

Watching him and there are no answers, just shouty distractions, claims of bias and getting the hump when his words are played back to him. It is Trumpism at its purest. And millions of mugs are falling for it, which is a sad indictment of my fellow countrymen.

You deserve the politicians you get.

 

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22 hours ago, BigFish said:

Maybe @Rock the Boat, although not really aimed at someone who can come back with such an appropriate reply.

It was more about what a disreputable bunch of chancers The Brexit Party are. They do little to advance the cause of Brexit with their vapid attention seeking.

There may be a pragmatic route to Brexit but it will never involve Farage (and for that matter as you mention it, it will never include the stupidity of WTO rules)

A lot of the success of the Brexit Party will come about because it really is made up of ordinary people from all walks of life (or chancers as you call them). They won't be slick careerist politicians and they will come with warts and all because that's just how normal people are, and that is the great appeal in the North to former Labour voters, and why I think Labour could get really hammered if there is a general election shortly after the EU vote.

The two-party system has been around for a long time because the two main parties don't really have much in the way of competition up until now. The Chuk party now provides a Blairite option separate from the broad-left of the Labour Party, which allows soft-left Tories to attach themselves. They will, and are, failing as a party because they are no different to a social democratic party and they really belong in the LibDems. Maybe they will eventually end up there. The Brexit party, meanwhile, offer a real Brexit choice (and not the BRINO deal that May has been trying to force through). They will hoover up votes in the north of England because they represent real people. The Tories were always perceived as toffs and could never make headway, while Labour has lost its working-class roots and has become a metropolitan-based party. Just how far this has gone was outlined in a study by University College, London who described just how quickly working-class politicians have disappeared from the Labour Party. I quote a relevant section from the study:

The report finds that career MPs, categorised as politicians that come from a background in politics or a closely related profession, are more likely to adopt policies for strategic political reasons to win over swing voters and win elections. In contrast, working-class MPs, categorised as politicians that have a background in manual and unskilled labour, are more likely to support policies that benefit working class communities 

Study author Dr Tom O'Grady, Lecturer in Quantitative Political Science, (UCL Political Science), said: "Political parties across the developed world, particularly European Social Democratic parties, once consisted of politicians drawn from a broad range of classes and occupations, including manual trades. Today, many political parties are dominated by middle-class professional politicians with little experience outside of politics itself. Working-class people find it increasingly difficult to enter politics.

"Before Tony Blair came to power there was only a modest difference in working-class and careerists positions on welfare reform. But our research finds that during his premiership - the influence of working-class MPs dropped while there was a rise in the influence of careerist politicians.

"The former had a stronger ideological attachment to welfare provision because it benefits working-class voters, whereas the latter's greater concerns for electoral success and career advancement meant they were more likely to support welfare reforms. The findings suggest that the large shift from working-class MPs to career politicians in the British Labour Party considerably weakened the representation of working-class voters' interests. Put bluntly, careerist MPs are much more likely to blow with the political winds."

When the Labour Party first achieved electoral success in the 1920s, more than 70% of its MPs were drawn from working-class backgrounds. This has declined drastically from the mid- 80s and today just 8% of Labour MPs are working-class

Working-class have been replaced one for one with careerists, a rare phenomenon up until the 80s when career MPs made up just a 10th of the party. Careerists are now the largest occupational group, outnumbering MPs from public and voluntary sector, private and financial sectors and professional backgrounds.

In other words, the Brexit Party now offers a choice to traditional Labour voters in the north and provides direct competition to the Labour Party. You only have to look north of the English border to see what happened when the SNP (a single-issue party much like the Brexit Party) also promoted strong socialist policies and as a result wiped out the Labour Party in Scotland (though admittedly in the last election there was movement away from SNP as services began to collapse). But it sows there is a precedence that voters are prepared to change allegiances when they see that alternatives do exist.

The Brexit Party needs a quick GE as the momentum will be with them after the EU vote. If there is an election I predict they'll gain 100 seats, taking many former Labour seats with them.

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On 16/05/2019 at 18:52, Rock The Boat said:

I can't speak for others but it's been my position from the outset, Herman

It was the only position, RtB --- There was no mention of a deal on the polling card and the EU was never going to give us a deal until we'd actually left.

It was always going to be WTO, but of course, as is common knowledge now, the Remaniacs have and still are doing everything to thwart democracy and the will of the people.

Hence Sir Nigel of Farage and the Brexit Party.

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So what you are both saying is that you knew that all the promises made during the referendum were a pack of lies, that Britain wasn't good enough or strong enough to get a good deal and that we'll crash out with absolutely **** all. If only they had written that on the side of a bus.

Funnily though I don't remember the campaign. I definitely can't remember Johnson or Farage saying we'll swap membership of the largest trading bloc in the world for the bottom rung of the ladder. Maybe people wouldn't have voted if that was the message. Who knows.

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Gaslighting

Description

Gaslighting is a form of psychological manipulation that seeks to sow seeds of doubt in a targeted individual or in members of a targeted group, making them question their own memory, perception, and sanity.

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Nigel Farrage will wear a white suit on Monday, as to not have to worry about milk shakes being thrown at him, raise his arms in the air and sing  Ahahahaha.

But he's got nowt to say in the HoC, and after October 31st. the lazy b....er will be leaving his fat wage packet and receive his perks pension. Then what? There is no GE planned until 2022, and his supporters will have to show patience, well at least try.

I would suggest that they have a Brexit party stall at the Luton Mela.

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Lots of ordinary hard working people and Labour party members at the Luton Mela, so the Brexit party of ordinary people should really try and get some more working class people signed up there, if they dare.

Mi9nd it is a positive family event and they might not want to be bothered with tub thumper's.

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On 25/05/2019 at 14:53, nevermind, neoliberalism has had it said:

Lots of ordinary hard working people and Labour party members at the Luton Mela, so the Brexit party of ordinary people should really try and get some more working class people signed up there, if they dare.

 

Seems they dared, old timer.

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Hopefully she will be interviewed more so that people wake up to the fact they are voting in bigoted old regressives.

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7 hours ago, A Load of Squit said:

Ann Widdecombe, just awful.

I expect her TV appearances will be limited from now on.

 

 

Yes, I'm not surprised you find straight talking in politics awful 🤪 No ambiguity from Anne or the Brexit party - No saying one thing but meaning another like May perfected as did Cameron, Brown and Blair before.

I miss straight talking in politics and nobody needs an explanation as to why you don't.

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Howard Zinn's quote is the best for this black day when the dark destroyer and mysoginist president forces himself on his unsuspecting poodle from behind. I'm switching off for the next three days.

Civil disobedience is not our problem. Our problem is civil obedience. Our problem is that people all over the world have obeyed the dictates of leaders…and millions have been killed because of this obedience…Our problem is that people are obedient allover the world in the face of poverty and starvation and stupidity, and war, and cruelty. Our problem is that people are obedient while the jails are full of petty thieves… (and) the grand thieves are running the country. That’s our problem.

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👍👇

Fans of Brexit-themed music videos will be delighted with the news that Libertarian Comedian Dominic Frisby – singer of the #1 smash hit “17 Million F**k O**s”is standing as a Brexit Party candidate. Frisby will be bringing his musical comedy and standup, along with some very sound views on Brexit and monetary policy, to the South-East London constituency of Old Bexley and Sidcup. The song is more than worth another listen…

James Brokenshire has a 15,000 majority but the constituency voted a whopping 62.4% Leave. He won’t be laughing if Frisby makes it to number one again…  👍

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Brexit Party Ramps up the Pressure on Boris Johnson, Announces New Parliament Candidates

A Brexit Party MEP has reacted with anger to the suggestion that now Boris Johnson is Prime Minister the party should stand aside, insisting that the British people still need to hold politicians to account over the promised withdrawal from the European Union which still hasn’t happened.

Claire Fox, a new member of the European Parliament and, as a former member of the Revolutionary Communist Party a key example of the broad political coalition for Brexit Nigel Farage has built, reacted to the suggestion that the Brexit Party could now be merely dismissed by the government as the party announced 50 new candidates ready for a snap election.

The Brexit Party has announced its first Westminster parliamentary candidates — here are their names https://t.co/jk6mqayJrT

— Breitbart London (@BreitbartLondon) August 2, 2019

 

As @Fox_Claire says, it is arrogant for the @Conservatives to say we should stand aside. They are the very reason we exist. We simply do not trust them to deliver. pic.twitter.com/J2prt6f8m5

— Nigel Farage (@Nigel_Farage) August 4, 2019

 

Talks of a potential electoral pact between the Brexit Party and the Conservatives have intensified in recent weeks, and as the candidate lists published by the Brexit Party themselves showed they would be standing against even Conservative Brexiteers. Reacting to the dismissive attitude towards the Brexit Party exhibited by some in the Conservative Party that now nominal Brexiteer Boris Johnson was leading the country they could wind up operations, MEP Fox said: “I think there’s something really quite offensive about having a party that says ‘OK Brexit Party, you can stand down now, we’ve now got a Conservative Party that’s talking the good talk on Brexit’.”

UKIP, the party formerly led by Nigel Farage and the official leave campaigns in 2016 that all played significant roles in delivering a successful vote to take the United Kingdom out of the European Union in 2016 to some extent made the same mistake that the Brexit Party is being called upon to do now, by letting their collective guards down when Prime Minister Theresa May promised to deliver Brexit. The Brexit Party was founded nearly three years later in response to the fact those promises had been broken.

Pointing out the Brexit Party’s already key role in holding the establishment’s feet to the fire over respecting democracy, and perhaps going some way to explain why that same establishment would be glad to see them stand aside, Fox continued: “If the Brexit Party didn’t exist, Theresa May would still be running the Conservative Party… Brexit was more or less thwarted, and over. The role of the Brexit Party continues to be to argue for a clean Brexit, to continue arguing for democracy. You have to remember that Brexit was almost thwarted, Brexit voters were being traduced.

“…the idea that anyone treats the Brexit Party as a kind of junior wing of the Conservative Party that can be dismissed because we’ve done our job doesn’t understand there is something much more profound happening in British politics today.”

Poll: Brexit Party Would Win More Votes than Tories If BoJo Delays Brexit https://t.co/gJ1oOUaQCA

— Breitbart London (@BreitbartLondon) August 2, 2019

 

The growing list of Parliamentary seats ready to be challenged by the Brexit Party will inevitably keep the pressure on Boris Johnson’s Conservative government to keep its word and deliver Brexit, as many of the candidates to stand could deprive sitting Conservatives of their seats. Brexit Party Chairman Richard Tice said today: “Today we release the names of 50 more high-calibre Prospective Parliamentary Candidates who stand ready to shake up Westminster, deliver a proper Brexit and help Change Politics for Good.

“The high quality, diversity, integrity, and resolve of the people putting themselves forward are exceptional. The Brexit Party will keep the pressure on the political establishment until it listens to and respects the will of British people.”

The new Parliamentary candidates include a former organiser for the Anti **** League Alaric Bamping, comedian and author Dominic Frisby, and the author grandson of Evelyn Wauge, Alexander Waugh.

It isn’t just the Conservatives that watch the Brexit Party with concern. Polling and the European Union parliament vote show the Party is picking up large numbers of voters in Labour’s northern former heartlands, areas in which many from working-class communities favour Brexit and feel alienated by Labour’s metropolitan, north-London centric leadership. The Brexit Party fired a warning shot across the bow of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn Monday morning by also announcing a candidate in his Islington North constituency.

Delingpole: Watch – the Best Ever Song About Brexit… https://t.co/3xYnvfnLHR

— Breitbart London (@BreitbartLondon) March 6, 2019

 

The irony won’t be lost on Mr Corbyn himself, who has been a long-standing critic of the European Union but was apparently forced to drop his views after becoming the leader of the Labour Party. James Heartfield will stand for the Brexit Party in Corbyn’s constituency and said of being selected: “I’ve lived in Islington since the 1980s, working in the Council and now as a history teacher… Seeing the way the EU forced vicious austerity policies on Greece and Portugal convinced me we had to get out.

“Free from the EU Britain can make its own decisions about what kind of country it wants to be. I’ve been a Brexit Party supporter since it launched and urge anyone who believes in freedom and in democracy to join us.”

Following the first 50 announced last week, the Brexit party announced another 50 today. Had your area been revealed yet?

Aberdeen North – Diane Elliott
Aylesbury – Allison Wild
Bath – Adefolajimi Adekanmi Ogunnusi
Beckenham – Dr Chidi Ngwaba
Birmingham, Erdington – Wendy Garcarz
Bolsover – Kevin Brendan Harper
Bridgwater and West Somerset – Alexander Evelyn Michael Waugh
Broadland – Alex Hayes
Bromsgrove – Mandy Childs
Broxbourne – Maximilian James Jackson
Bury North – Alan McCarthy
Charnwood – Sadhana Stokes
Dartford – Alaric Bamping
Doncaster North – Andrew Stewart
Ealing Central and Acton – Samir Alsoodani
East Devon – Michael John Amor
Eddisbury – Nicholas William Sean Goulding
Folkestone and Hythe – Matthew Patten
Grantham and Stamford – Jessica Swift
Hastings and Rye – Tom Bewick
Havant – Christopher Ellis
Hertsmere – Graham Barry Shore
Huntingdon – David Blake
Isle of Wight – Peter Wiltshire
Islington North – James Heartfield
Leeds East – Sarah Wass
Mid Sussex – David Banks
Newcastle-under-Lyme – Jason Crawford Cooper
North Durham – Peter Telford
Norwich South – Graham Roberts-Phelps
Old Bexley and Sidcup – Dominic Frisby
Portsmouth North – Angela Hancock
Portsmouth South – Susan Lloyd
Runnymede and Weybridge – Lorna Rowland
Skipton and Ripon – Charlotte Kozlow
Slough – Vishal Khatri
Stafford – Anne Elizabeth Grahamslaw
Staffordshire Moorlands – Richard Watkin
Stourbridge – Aaron Hudson
The Cotswolds – Peter Udale
Truro and Falmouth – Paul Christopher Wood
Tunbridge Wells – Christopher Pendleton
Wantage – Sally Ann Rainbow-Ockwell
Warrington South – Dennis Rogers
Washington and Sunderland West – Howard Brown
Watford – William Berry
Welwyn Hatfield – Keith Adams
West Dorset – Rosie Darkin-Miller
Workington – Philip Walling
Ynys Môn – Helen Jenner

Farage Predicts General Election, Urges Boris to Embrace Tory-Brexit Party Pact https://t.co/2IyER6LzYF

— Breitbart London (@BreitbartLondon) August 3, 2019

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On 16/05/2019 at 15:04, Herman said:

Hard left, far right, disaster capitalists. What could this disperate group all get out of a weakened UK? 

Read the following, Hermione 👇

 

odey-performance.png?w=540&ssl=1

There is a belief popular with some Remainiacs that Brexit backing financiers – particularly those who donate to Brexit causes – are doing so to profit. Somehow they will make a killing when Brexit goes disastrously wrong and that is the reason why they are funding Brexit causes. The latest manifestation of this is that Crispin Odey is short* £300 million of shares in British companies, proof that he stands to make a killing when Brexit collapses the economy. Literally caught short!

Guido has not spoken to Odey for this article. It is however well known that he runs a long/short fund. A common strategy of such funds is to do pairs trades; a trader might go long Fed-Ex shares and short Royal Mail shares because he thinks Fed-Ex will do better than Royal Mail whether the general market goes up or down. If the market goes down he expects Royal Mail to go down more, if it goes up he expects Fed Ex to go up more. The difference between the moves – the spread – is where his profits or losses will be made. The difference in the shares’ relative performance.

Both shares could go up, so long as Fed-Ex goes up more the trader profits. Sometimes long/short funds will short a stock versus the general market. If the market goes up more than the shorted stock, they profit. The reason the financial press knows Odey is short £300 million of shares is that funds have to make regulatory declarations of short interests. They do not have to declare their long interests. However we know that Odey has billions under management. It is therefore very likely that his firm is net long the UK stock market given he has only £300 million in declared shorts. Not a position you take if you expect disaster.

Odey is often reported as having made millions from the referendum. Guido is sure Crispin is happy for potential investors to think that. However the facts are that his Swan Long/Short Equity fund lost 42.1% in 2016 and 21.8% in 2017. It has only just started clawing back losses by some 39.7% in 2018, leaving it well down since the referendum. So much for profiting from Brexit…

*Shorting is when you borrow and sell shares in the hope of buying them back later at a lower price.

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Posted (edited)

I've given it since yesterday morning when I posted Boris's letter to Tusk here and not one of you has picked up on a key point: The letter only addresses the backstop -- The backstop defines many unacceptable issues, but it doesn't change all the other parts of the disastrous 'Withdrawal Agreement', nor does it alter any parts of the equally disastrous 'Political Declaration' -- Even minus the backstop the 'Withdrawal Agreement' is a 'Surrender Treaty'.

Boris told us the WA (Surrender Treaty) was dead and it has to go:

Brexiteers agreed and Brexiteers expect the complete repudiation of the supplicant and defeatist approach of the previous administration.  

Does Boris really need reminding Sir Nigel of Farage and the Brexit Party are waiting in the wings?

Forget about GEs & a 2nd referendums --- The best Remaniacs can hope for now is Brexiteers worst nightmare --- A last-minute BRINO.

Which would render Van Winkerton correct.

 

(Cue Billock accusations of Van Wink and myself being the same person 🤪)

Edited by Jools

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I'm posting this wonderful Piersmorgan rant here because I'm pretty sure the mighty EU thread will disappear once we've actually left the EU 👍

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"Everyone is offended by everything"

Even vegan sausage rolls.

"A humourless void where nothing happens"

Morgan practising for an autobiography?

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