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The Brexit Thread

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Meanwhile : this smells of being desperate or drunk - 

"Like Jason in search of the golden fleece, the Prime Minister has overcome the mightiest of obstacles to return with a deal that fulfils the mandate of the referendum vote," writes

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Brain of Britain wrote

" is that EU will do away with the monarchy.  Do away with our currency and merge our armed forces into the EU's army "

How will thet do away with the monachy..........shoot then in a cellar like the Romanovs ?

And what is the 'EU army' and when was it formed ?

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14 minutes ago, Surfer said:

Meanwhile : this smells of being desperate or drunk - 

"Like Jason in search of the golden fleece, the Prime Minister has overcome the mightiest of obstacles to return with a deal that fulfils the mandate of the referendum vote," writes

Except Jason then gets killed by his rotting boat* falling on top of him. Classical allusions often have a sting in the tail.

*Symbolism alert - rotting boat equals the Tory party, the electorate, vengeful ex-wives and/or mistresses...

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Can Boris Johnson win the vote?

The winning post for votes in the House of Commons is 320 if everyone turns up - seven Sinn Fein MPs do not sit and the Speaker and three deputies do not vote.

There are currently 287 voting Conservative MPs. The prime minister needs to limit any rebellion among them.

Then, if the DUP will not support his deal, he will need the backing of 23 former Conservative MPs who are currently independents. Most will probably support the deal, but not all.

That is still not quite enough, though, so the PM will also need the backing of some Labour MPs and ex-Labour independents. In March, when MPs voted on Theresa May's deal for the third time, five Labour MPs backed it, plus two ex-Labour independents.

This time it is likely to be a bit higher than that because several MPs have said they would now back a deal.

All this still leaves the vote very close. And it is possible some MPs could abstain, making it even harder to predict the outcome.

 

This from the BBC Website. Clearly going to be closer than some are predicting on here. Looks like a narrow loss to me. DUP coming on board would swing it Johnson's way as I suggested previously but that doesn't look too likely. As things stand

Edited by Hairy Canary

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11 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

Why would you want to join the Euro?

Convenience mainly, that and the fact that any loss of control (and that implies that I have a modicum of trust in those who have their hands on the levers at present) will be compensated by the economic benefits (predicted to be between 1-3% increase in GDP). 

I suspect I am in a significant minority with the viewpoint so it is unlikely to ever happen, but I equally suspect that the majority of people opposed based their objections on jingoistic and nostalgic reasons, as well as illogical premises like, "Look what happened to Greece!!!", rather than on sound economic arguments.

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55 minutes ago, Hairy Canary said:

Can Boris Johnson win the vote?

The winning post for votes in the House of Commons is 320 if everyone turns up - seven Sinn Fein MPs do not sit and the Speaker and three deputies do not vote.

There are currently 287 voting Conservative MPs. The prime minister needs to limit any rebellion among them.

Then, if the DUP will not support his deal, he will need the backing of 23 former Conservative MPs who are currently independents. Most will probably support the deal, but not all.

That is still not quite enough, though, so the PM will also need the backing of some Labour MPs and ex-Labour independents. In March, when MPs voted on Theresa May's deal for the third time, five Labour MPs backed it, plus two ex-Labour independents.

This time it is likely to be a bit higher than that because several MPs have said they would now back a deal.

All this still leaves the vote very close. And it is possible some MPs could abstain, making it even harder to predict the outcome.

 

This from the BBC Website. Clearly going to be closer than some are predicting on here. Looks like a narrow loss to me. DUP coming on board would swing it Johnson's way as I suggested previously but that doesn't look too likely. As things stand

Yep, from Dominic Grieve this morning on the BBC it sounds like 16-18 of those 23 seem inclined to back Boris' deal. That still will leave him needing a good few Labour MPs; how many dare brave the probable trigger ballots back in their constituencies if they are seen to enable Johnson's woeful deal and prop up and bolster his Premiership?

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Rumours from Wasteminster are that a possible 19 Labour MPs will vote for the deal which with the 21 ex Tories on board could swing it for this deal.

Evidently many of the 19 are worried that they are in constituencies that had a majority for leave. Counterbalance that with the chance of being deselected for ignoring a three line whip.

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Chill out everyone - many a twist and unexpected turn in this yet - didn't anybody tell you it's a trilogy! 

First up we have the Scottish Cts (yes again) - could be that JRM has actually shot down his own deal. Karma if it happens.

Secondly I love the analogy of Arlene now in the departure lounge for a United Ireland (having literally passed through customs control....). Love and kisses Boris. I bet she thinks Brexit was a bad idea now! 

Then we have the ERG - again abandoning their 'Unionist' principals (it was in the Tory party name) for the full English Brexit. But then they never had any anyway.

Corbyn - being useless as ever - so nothing changes there.  I wonder how many Labour for a Tory Brexit MPs there will be be?

Probably will fail at first attempt as with all cliff-hangers - 2nd ref anybody to get it over the line?

Next episode 5pm next week.....

Edited by Yellow Fever

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3 hours ago, Hairy Canary said:

Can Boris Johnson win the vote?

The winning post for votes in the House of Commons is 320 if everyone turns up - seven Sinn Fein MPs do not sit and the Speaker and three deputies do not vote.

There are currently 287 voting Conservative MPs. The prime minister needs to limit any rebellion among them.

Then, if the DUP will not support his deal, he will need the backing of 23 former Conservative MPs who are currently independents. Most will probably support the deal, but not all.

That is still not quite enough, though, so the PM will also need the backing of some Labour MPs and ex-Labour independents. In March, when MPs voted on Theresa May's deal for the third time, five Labour MPs backed it, plus two ex-Labour independents.

This time it is likely to be a bit higher than that because several MPs have said they would now back a deal.

All this still leaves the vote very close. And it is possible some MPs could abstain, making it even harder to predict the outcome.

 

This from the BBC Website. Clearly going to be closer than some are predicting on here. Looks like a narrow loss to me. DUP coming on board would swing it Johnson's way as I suggested previously but that doesn't look too likely. As things stand

I posted yesterday that if the DUP voted against then Johnson would definitely lose, but I see today the FT and Sky have number-crunching that leaves him only two or four votes short without those 10. It seems that more and more of the ERG have decided they won't vote the way the DUP does anymore. My guess would still be that he will lose, but a lot can happen in 24 hours. My fantasy is that Johnson falls short by one vote, and it turns out to be Theresa May getting her revenge on him and the b*stards of the ERG...

To add:

The FT guesstimate, for example, has only seven Labour MPs voting for. As keelansgrandad indicates, with rumours of more than double that, it could be the Labour 'rebellion' figure is being underestimated.

The usual reasons are that these MPs are afraid of a No-Deal as the only alternative, and/or are falling in line with how their constituents seem to have voted.

But there is another calculation, which applies to the ex-Tories as well. Johnson's deal is potentially more economically damaging than May's. Difficult to imagine, but true. However that is pretty much all contained in the political declaration/future trade talks, which are not set in stone.

So, the pragmatic temptation goes, avoid the catastrophe of a No-Deal by voting for Johnson's nonsense and then hope the election produces  either a Labour or an anti-Tory government to negotiate a much softer post-Brexit deal.

Edited by PurpleCanary
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So, if you were an MP sitting in the House of Commons, knowing that Junker has said no more extensions, would you:

A) vote for the deal or B) vote against the deal?

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4 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

So, if you were an MP sitting in the House of Commons, knowing that Junker has said no more extensions, would you:

A) vote for the deal or B) vote against the deal?

I think I'd view it as him trying to put pressure on accepting what is a very good deal for the EU and would imagine he'd soon change his mind if faced with no deal and would therefore vote against it.

Edited by ThorpeCanary

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11 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

So, if you were an MP sitting in the House of Commons, knowing that Junker has said no more extensions, would you:

A) vote for the deal or B) vote against the deal?

Old news... That fox is shot.

Angela Merkel has told EU leaders a Brexit extension would be unavoidable if British MPs vote down the deal agreed with Boris Johnson.

During private talks at the EU summit, the German chancellor told her fellow leaders they could not pretend an extension would not be offered to the UK if it was requested, according to a source familiar with the discussions.

Edited by Yellow Fever
ref Guardian 'live'

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23 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Old news... That fox is shot.

Angela Merkel has told EU leaders a Brexit extension would be unavoidable if British MPs vote down the deal agreed with Boris Johnson.

During private talks at the EU summit, the German chancellor told her fellow leaders they could not pretend an extension would not be offered to the UK if it was requested, according to a source familiar with the discussions.

Except that the same argument that got applied here yesterday to Juncker - that he coud not tell 27 heads of government whether or not to veto - applies to Merkel.

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2 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said:

Except that the same argument that got applied here yesterday to Juncker - that he coud not tell 27 heads of government whether or not to veto - applies to Merkel.

True but Merkel is one of the 27 - Junker is not Tusk says much the same as Merkel. An extension on sensible grounds would almost certainly be granted - so I think the question is moot.

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21 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

True but Merkel is one of the 27 - Junker is not Tusk says much the same as Merkel. An extension on sensible grounds would almost certainly be granted - so I think the question is moot.

If think Junker's comments were taken more seriously than they should have been. It was a simple question dodge by Junker as he did not want to get drawn on commenting on the extension when he hadn't consulted any Heads of State or other key players. A simply, "we don't need to talk about that because we have a deal".

It's looking increasingly more likely that an extension will be granted, though with any luck there will be a caveat that ensures some sort of meaningful resolution to make certain that it will be the last. And the way I see it, a second referendum is the only outcome that offers certainty, a general election does not.

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Nothing is impossible. Or else they wouldn't have sat down with Johnson again. The way things were going a second referendum was looming which may have suited them.

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So Brexit wins as Boris has got round the Benn Act and we leave with No Deal if the deal is voted down :

 

 

 

Edited by paul moy

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12 minutes ago, paul moy said:

So Brexit wins as Boris has got round the Benn Act and we leave with No Deal if the deal is voted down :

I actually think you are stupid enough to believe that.

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oh dear, the numptoes are out in force

for lairy canary, the figure is not 23 short frt the Tories, as

Tories 288

the rest 352 ( who will vote)

64 so it needs 33 NOT as you state 23

aha, will be the bleat, that was the figures from the BBC site

I was too dim to check the basic maths

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1 hour ago, Rock The Boat said:

So, if you were an MP sitting in the House of Commons, knowing that Junker has said no more extensions, would you:

A) vote for the deal or B) vote against the deal?

hand crank clueless as ever

imagines that all this is being made up 'on the hoof' (as are his posts)

 this has been agree this summer, as why would Remain get this far if there was no certainty that an extension would be granted ?

and many on both sides know that tomorrow they can vote with an eye on their constituency and a GE as the numbers are usually known before the count

whips will know who is going to vote which way, it is how it works

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Any remoaners taking up a free ride to Smokey Auld Laandaan for the anti-brexit blub waah fest? It's courtesy of our Champagne Campaigner and Colossal Club Matriarch 'Deals no Deals' remainer, who's personally funding the (hopefully eco-friendly) charabancs.....I also wonder if crates o' socialist stout will be supplied for the oiks trip daaarn?...... Toot Toot!....

Hope she don't miss the game against the cheerful Cherries?.....

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4 minutes ago, Mello Yello said:

Any remoaners taking up a free ride to Smokey Auld Laandaan for the anti-brexit blub waah fest? It's courtesy of our Champagne Campaigner and Colossal Club Matriarch 'Deals no Deals' remainer, who's personally funding the (hopefully eco-friendly) charabancs.....I also wonder if crates o' socialist stout will be supplied for the oiks trip daaarn?...... Toot Toot!....

Hope she don't miss the game against the cheerful Cherries?.....

Someone's enjoying their Friday.

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1 minute ago, canarydan23 said:

Someone's enjoying their Friday.

I'm having fun......Hey, are you gaarn daarn as a stout socialist?......'Move along the bus'......Toot toot!....

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11 minutes ago, Mello Yello said:

I'm having fun......Hey, are you gaarn daarn as a stout socialist?......'Move along the bus'......Toot toot!....

I bet Kenny Everett was your favourite comedian and, like you, was about as amusing as chlamydia. 

Edited by Fuzzar
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19 minutes ago, Mello Yello said:

Any remoaners taking up a free ride to Smokey Auld Laandaan for the anti-brexit blub waah fest? It's courtesy of our Champagne Campaigner and Colossal Club Matriarch 'Deals no Deals' remainer, who's personally funding the (hopefully eco-friendly) charabancs.....I also wonder if crates o' socialist stout will be supplied for the oiks trip daaarn?...... Toot Toot!....

Hope she don't miss the game against the cheerful Cherries?.....

or get stuck on the A11 either

...................know wot aye mean ? :classic_biggrin:

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1 minute ago, Fuzzar said:

I bet Kenny Everett was your favourite comedian and, like you, was about as amusing as chlamydia. 

we'll have to take your word for that

 

ps does it hospitalise you ?

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Speaking of chlamydia....along comes Bill/City 1st.....

3 minutes ago, Fuzzar said:

I bet Kenny Everett was your favourite comedian and, like you, was about as amusing as chlamydia. 

I bet Ben Elton was your favourite Chlamydian......Drip drip.....

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