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The Brexit Thread

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7 hours ago, Jools said:

Well, Hermione -- Guido appears to be the winner 😀

Doesn't mean he's right just that there are far more stupid and gullible Englishmen than at first feared. 

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All papers have an editorial bias, even the FT. A liberal bias in this particular case.

Edited by Van wink

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9 hours ago, PurpleCanary said:

No. That was not what you said, and nothing to do with what you said. You were then not talking about Barber supposedly being now more ambivalent about Brexit. You were claiming something entirely different and much more serious, that the FT's coverage of Brexit under Barber's editorship had been biased and that under the new editor (about whom I doubt you could say anything  relevant at all beyond what you might hurriedly find on Wiki) the coverage would be less biased:

'Only when it’s been biased.  I think you will find they will report in a more even handed way after the departure of Barber.'

By all means carry on digging yourself deeper, but at the risk of denying myself later pleasure I feel the need to point out that every time the FT carries a story that casts doubt on Brexit as an enterprise the dumber your 'new editor' theory will look. Still, against that you will always, wrong or wronger, have Jools as a sycophantic cheerleader.

 

PS. Please provide a full transcript of this interview Barber had with Robinson. Nothing less will do. Of course neither of us, or anyone else with a brain, would  take on trust Toby Young’s account of what he had for breakfast, let alone something serious, so he can happily be ignored.

 

 

 

 

Just to put this to bed. In the last few months Barber has given a few interviews on Brexit and written a long piece for the FT. In not one of them have I seen any suggestion that Barber now thinks Brexit was a good idea.  What he has said, and has been the FT's position all along, is that there are various possible Brexits, with some being more damaging to the economy and some less damaging. Which is not only a statement of the obvious but a view held by posters here.

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7 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said:

Just to put this to bed. In the last few months Barber has given a few interviews on Brexit and written a long piece for the FT. In not one of them have I seen any suggestion that Barber now thinks Brexit was a good idea.  What he has said, and has been the FT's position all along, is that there are various possible Brexits, with some being more damaging to the economy and some less damaging. Which is not only a statement of the obvious but a view held by posters here.

I’m certainly not claiming he thinks Brexit is a good idea, if I have made that claim then I would appreciate you directing me to it. From memory the word used was ambivalent. 

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42 minutes ago, Van wink said:

I’m certainly not claiming he thinks Brexit is a good idea, if I have made that claim then I would appreciate you directing me to it. From memory the word used was ambivalent. 

Most thoughtful Remainers are now ambivalent, that the UK is leaving the EU at the end of the month is a given and the view is the country needs to make the best of it. The debate has entered the phoney war stage and most of the noise is being generated from hubristic Leavers. No actual progress has been made and at the current rate is unlikely until after the budget & the publication of the EU negotiating mandate in March. It appears the the government will not be publishing its own negotiating mandate, instead will sound off in the media for local consumption (although not through any channel that would ask too many difficult questions). Your can make your own assumptions of why this might be.

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11 hours ago, Jools said:

Congratulations on being first out of the gate in telling us Brexiteers you know better than Barber and the FT soothsayers that you've so heavily relied on for your information in the last three and a half years, Purple 👍

 

😀

Where's Bulls!tter Bill when you don't need him?

🤣🤣🤣

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Laurence Fox's anti-woke anthem 👍

They have put something in the water
They seek a cure for the conversation
They stole a march on your indecision
And the first to fall is laughter
Just to quell the long offended
They seek to murder your opinion

The light has been turned down on the age of reason
Replaced by blinding fires that burn wild across the region
For the wrong to rule
The good must just stand idly by

So I need you more than ever
Need your hands in this resistance
If we're going to go the distance
And if I ever doubt it
I think about my future
And if i want to live there

The world outside is wondrous wide for a reason
And if you can't decide, you must blow your own mind for that reason
For the wrong to rule
The good must just stand idly by

It can be hard to know what feeling
What with all the lies that you're reading
If it's hard to say, you may mean it

Don't be lost thinking about tomorrow
When today is what you are living
Make today your new beginning

The light has been turned down on the age of reason
Replaced by blinding fires that burn wild across the region
For the wrong to rule
The good must just stand idly by

So I need you more than ever
Need your hands in this resistance
If we're going to go the distance
And if I ever doubt it
I think about my future
And if i want to live there

The world outside is wondrous wide for a reason
And if you can't decide, you must blow your own mind for that reason
For the wrong to rule
The good must just stand idly by

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BF, I think that’s the right approach and an encouraging step forward for many 👍

“Most thoughtful Remainers are now ambivalent, that the UK is leaving the EU at the end of the month is a given and the view is the country needs to make the best of it. “

 

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1 hour ago, Van wink said:

BF, I think that’s the right approach and an encouraging step forward for many 👍

“Most thoughtful Remainers are now ambivalent, that the UK is leaving the EU at the end of the month is a given and the view is the country needs to make the best of it. “

 

As someone who accepted the referendum result and never once argued for a retake that has been my position all along, but trying to make the best of a bad job still doesn't make Brexit anything other than a bad job.

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This should help to encourage the refreshing approach our remainer colleagues are now adopting.


A narrow EU trade deal is the most likely way forward The UK should not agree to proposals to stagger the talks, with fish as part of the first course

 It is worth reflecting on Mark Carney’s call for the British government not to make any compromises on financial services in post-Brexit trade talks with the EU. The outgoing governor of the Bank of England argued that the City of London had a lot to gain from a regulatory divergence. This way, it could exploit new commercial opportunities, including those arising from the transition to a low-carbon economy. Just consider for a moment how far the debate has come since the referendum in 2016. Back then, Mr Carney delivered scary forecasts. The City of London was desperate to keep passporting, which allows financial companies to trade from anywhere and to anywhere in the EU. Now Mr Carney actively encourages divergence. His line of argument applies to other sectors too. If the UK wanted to become a global leader in artificial intelligence, it would be constrained by EU regulations. There are also concerns about the impact of the new General Data Protection Regulation, on the grounds that it restricts the collection of data for commercial use and increases compliance costs. There are business opportunities to be exploited if the UK manages to extricate itself from GDPR. I expect this to become a big issue in the trade talks. One of the policy challenges of Brexit is to balance the new opportunities that might arise out of regulatory divergence with the interests of businesses that benefit from EU membership. Divergence is costly in the short run. Longer-term there is more money to be made in artificial intelligence than to be lost by, say, reduced production of diesel cars, which are soon to be extinct anyway. But even in the motor industry, there are opportunities in divergence. EU car prices are kept artificially high by requirements to make cars capable of speed on the German autobahn — plus an EU-wide 10 per cent import tariff. So where does all this leave the trade talks? During her visit to London last week, Ursula von der Leyen, the new European Commission president, linked the degree of preferential single market access to regulatory convergence. She still appears to be working from the assumption that the UK would seek deep market access in areas like financial services. But Mr Carney’s comments suggest that the EU may overestimate the UK’s appetite — and the price it is ready to pay for it. Observers tend to extrapolate from the previous round of negotiations, before the UK general election, during which the EU rammed through most of what it wanted. Back then, the UK’s position was weakened by a confused negotiation strategy, the lack of Conservative majority, and three deadline extensions. Boris Johnson’s victory ended all that. It is possible that the prime minister may be bluffing. Will he extend the end of 2020 deadline for the transition period after all? I would not bet on it. If not, the best deal that can be achieved would be a relatively narrow agreement focusing on the free flow of goods. One possible obstacle is the EU’s insistence on regulatory alignment even in the case of a no-frills zero-tariff trade agreement. I find that demand hard to justify given the EU’s large trade surplus with the UK. A zero-tariff agreement would not threaten the integrity of the single market. Just think for a moment what would happen if no deal is agreed by the end of this year. No, the German car companies will not intervene. BMW and Mercedes will simply divert car production to their US plants and export to the UK from there. They will not suffer, German workers will. Would it not be reasonable to expect Berlin to organise a qualified majority in the European Council in favour of a narrow trade deal? Another potential problem is sequencing. The UK should not agree to the EU’s proposals to stagger the talks, with fish as part of the first course. It would better for the two sides to define the scope and the timetable first, then negotiate all the chapters in parallel. Both sides have an overwhelming interest in striking a deal — not least in view of the geopolitical situation. The UK should consider giving assurances to the EU on environmental regulation and labour standards and, yes, maybe on fisheries too. Whatever the future UK industrial strategy, it will probably not rely on child labour, coal-fired power stations, or halibut. It is also worth reflecting that the harsh Brexit that now lies ahead is the result of monumental political misjudgments — by Theresa May, the former prime minister, the Labour Party, the Liberal Democrats, Tory rebels and the second referendum campaign. The European Council, too, is partly to blame. EU leaders could have helped secured a softer Brexit if they had refused to participate in the charade of Brexit extensions. The reason a narrow trade deal is now the most likely way forward is that all the alternatives have been eliminated. 

 

Edited by Van wink

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6 minutes ago, Van wink said:

A narrow EU trade deal is the most likely way forward.....  Now Mr Carney actively encourages divergence...If the UK wanted to become a global leader in artificial intelligence, it would be constrained by EU regulations....also concerns about the impact of the new General Data Protection Regulation, on the grounds that it restricts the collection of data for commercial use and increases compliance costs. There are business opportunities to be exploited if the UK manages to extricate itself from GDPR. Longer-term there is more money to be made in artificial intelligence than to be lost by, say, reduced production of diesel cars, which are soon to be extinct anyway.... the assumption that the UK would seek deep market access in areas like financial services. ...the best deal that can be achieved would be a relatively narrow agreement focusing on the free flow of goods. One possible obstacle is the EU’s insistence on regulatory alignment even in the case of a no-frills zero-tariff trade agreement. A zero-tariff agreement would not threaten the integrity of the single market. ... Would it not be reasonable to expect Berlin to organise a qualified majority in the European Council in favour of a narrow trade deal? ...The UK should consider giving assurances to the EU on environmental regulation and labour standards and, yes, maybe on fisheries too. ... It is also worth reflecting that the harsh Brexit that now lies ahead is the result of monumental political misjudgments — by Theresa May, the former prime minister, the Labour Party, the Liberal Democrats, Tory rebels and the second referendum campaign... The reason a narrow trade deal is now the most likely way forward is that all the alternatives have been eliminated.

Not so fast @Van wink you will have to do better than this collection of nonsense. Firstly, qualified majority voting does not apply to EU trade deals so that is just wrong. Secondly, tariffs have nothing to do with Single Market access (regulation alignment does). So would the UK really abolish GDPR having already sunk the cost in applying it, will the UK allow big business to spy on UK citizens.....madness. That is without the unicorn of AI, can you name a leading UK company in the AI field? At moment vast sums are being invested in the US & China but in the UK not much. Without government support there is no future in AI in the UK accept as consumers or niche product producers.

Where is correct is the deal will be a skeleton only and the Leaving of the EU will be harsh.

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Good post Wonky. Most people misunderstand the way this is going. Not surprisingly as May did not understand the ramifications and those around her, being die-hard Remainers were not about to explain anything. Therefore we've been following the false Remain narrative that 'we need the EU more than the EU needs us'. 

Now the reality isn't the opposite view - that 'they need us more than we need them' (which is just as daft) but that from herein, everything is different. 

And just as the winners in evolution are not the fittest or the biggest - but those who can adapt to change, so our future success as an independent country depends upon our ability to be agile. 

Cummings gets this. His famous advert for brilliant weirdos was a recognition of the fact that we need to diverge from the old and adopt the new. A narrow trade agreement makes sense. We look westwards and not to our close neighbours. We push back boundaries not build walls. We don't plan based on the past but on the future. 

Cummings and Boris have a huge fight on their hands to break up the establishment and old order. I'm not sure if Johnson has the stomach for the fight though he talks as though he does. We have to see if genuine inroads can be made in rebuilding the civil service. If they don't win this battle other battles will be even more difficult. 

Still, Boris has a big majority and the backing of the country plus some very smart people around him. À lot of people are fed up with the growth of progressive wokeism and are currently open to the ideas of Conservatism. This might just succeed if we stay brave. A look at Macron's Gilets Jaunes should remind us how it could go if we remain with the same old same old. 

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On 19/01/2020 at 10:57, Herman said:

 

image.png.7523e5af61e032915febb2e810be6f6f.png

The man's an idiot. He gets asked a question about the challenges trying to combine components manufactured across different countries and borders into a single product, and replies that Japan doesn't have any issues importing the finished, already assembled product into the EU (which is going to be a one-time, high margin transaction).

 

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VW - I don't agree with this .. A so called Hard Brexit is by choice not by necessity.

Yes I did want a confirmatory referendum - I don't sign blank cheques or contracts without knowing the terms. It seems many do so - more fool them.

As to the future - yes we'll make the best of it - we have our plans which will be now be actioned without further input from the electorate but wholly dependent upon which way Johnson goes. Brexit has taken far too much management time already. I can retire.

As I noted to SC - Honda no longer have a Brexit problem and the board sleep more soundly because of it!

 

"It is also worth reflecting that the harsh Brexit that now lies ahead is the result of monumental political misjudgments — by Theresa May, the former prime minister, the Labour Party, the Liberal Democrats, Tory rebels and the second referendum campaign. The European Council, too, is partly to blame. EU leaders could have helped secured a softer Brexit if they had refused to participate in the charade of Brexit extensions"

 

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20 minutes ago, BigFish said:

Not so fast @Van wink you will have to do better than this collection of nonsense. Firstly, qualified majority voting does not apply to EU trade deals so that is just wrong. Secondly, tariffs have nothing to do with Single Market access (regulation alignment does). So would the UK really abolish GDPR having already sunk the cost in applying it, will the UK allow big business to spy on UK citizens.....madness. That is without the unicorn of AI, can you name a leading UK company in the AI field? At moment vast sums are being invested in the US & China but in the UK not much. Without government support there is no future in AI in the UK accept as consumers or niche product producers.

Where is correct is the deal will be a skeleton only and the Leaving of the EU will be harsh.

You’ll have to take those points up with the FT my boy. I was ( perhaps mistakenly ) working on the basis that their articles were factually correct.

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18 minutes ago, BigFish said:

Not so fast @Van wink you will have to do better than this collection of nonsense. Firstly, qualified majority voting does not apply to EU trade deals so that is just wrong. Secondly, tariffs have nothing to do with Single Market access (regulation alignment does). So would the UK really abolish GDPR having already sunk the cost in applying it, will the UK allow big business to spy on UK citizens.....madness. That is without the unicorn of AI, can you name a leading UK company in the AI field? At moment vast sums are being invested in the US & China but in the UK not much. Without government support there is no future in AI in the UK accept as consumers or niche product producers.

Where is correct is the deal will be a skeleton only and the Leaving of the EU will be harsh.

You are talking about a subject of which you appear to know little BF. The UK is leading the world in AI technology. 

Who did the Americans come to in the infamous FB cases?

Even the Americans are investing in UK AI. 

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38 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

You are talking about a subject of which you appear to know little BF. The UK is leading the world in AI technology. 

Who did the Americans come to in the infamous FB cases?

Even the Americans are investing in UK AI. 

Pot & Kettle spring to mind @Rock The Boat, as ever you have posted entirely fact free. Sure the now defunct Cambridge Analytica got some notorietory but they are not developing AI, only crimanal data theft. Sure there is some investment from the US but it is limited to regional offices and a few thousand jobs. The idea that it could compensate for throwing our motor industry under the bus any time some is fanciful. The idea that without significant government intervention that the UK AI industry will be anything but a minor player is just stupid.

image.thumb.png.bf179dd96ebf499a7e161345ccb27764.png

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46 minutes ago, Van wink said:

You’ll have to take those points up with the FT my boy. I was ( perhaps mistakenly ) working on the basis that their articles were factually correct.

Who's it by, VW? It reads like an opinionated comment column submitted from outside, and so with no necessity to be true, rather than a piece written by an FT staffer.

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3 hours ago, Jools said:

Laurence Fox's anti-woke anthem

Laurence Fox protest singer...he should probably stick to minor parts in ITV dramas? 🤭🤣

Apples

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I swear that AI and 5G and Blockchain, and for England HS2 are modern Unicorns...

Does anyone have any idea how they benefit the economy or businesses or the people of the country. No. Just means to funnel “investment” into automation, communications & transport which if placed into plain language everyone could understand. 
 

p.s I was writing up a marketing proposal for a client the other day and the conversation was “ can we call what we do AI? The investors will like that” 

So reality please, de-regulation is to enable exploitation of new loopholes by someone connected to the politicians enabling that. 

In the US we know who the people pulling the strings are ... who is it in the UK? 

 

Edited by Surfer

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34 minutes ago, Mr Apples said:

Laurence Fox protest singer...he should probably stick to minor parts in ITV dramas? 🤭🤣

Apples

Ultimate Force has a lot to answer for. 🤣

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1 hour ago, PurpleCanary said:

Who's it by, VW? It reads like an opinionated comment column submitted from outside, and so with no necessity to be true, rather than a piece written by an FT staffer.

Munchau, I believe he is an associate  FT editor.

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3 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Munchau, I believe he is an associate  FT editor.

Ah him. Silly me, I should have guessed. Munchau is an FT staffer, known for his sometimes eccentric views and unlikely statements. Best with any Munchau piece to look at the comments below to see if what he is claiming bears much relationship to either factual or geopolitical reality, and in this case some of the comments make it clear this article is not, as with this:

If such misleading statements [about AI] are allowed in FT pieces under the guise of 'opinion' then editors should at least require from the author some explanation so we can all share Wolfgang's insight into this. Based on my own insight in this area this statement is complete nonsense (as are several other similar unbsubstantiated assertions in the article).

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2 hours ago, Surfer said:

I swear that AI and 5G and Blockchain, and for England HS2 are modern Unicorns...

Does anyone have any idea how they benefit the economy or businesses or the people of the country. No. Just means to funnel “investment” into automation, communications & transport which if placed into plain language everyone could understand. 
 

p.s I was writing up a marketing proposal for a client the other day and the conversation was “ can we call what we do AI? The investors will like that” 

So reality please, de-regulation is to enable exploitation of new loopholes by someone connected to the politicians enabling that. 

In the US we know who the people pulling the strings are ... who is it in the UK? 

 

 

Yes. Jargon and fad words for everybody.

Amuses me that anybody thinks that the rUK will be leader in any 'big' science after Brexit. Niche areas perhaps but the brighter lights of the US, China or Europe and the 'big' companies in big markets with big (state and private) R&D budgets will quickly pull our most able overseas. Much the same happened to those 'left' behind Brexity areas - the most able moved out to the better jobs. Back to the 1970s we go. Jolly good show/chap Johnson.

Musk has already situated  his new 'Gigafactory' in Germany because of Brexit. So long for the UK leading commercial battery technology.

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"Attending the penultimate session of the #EuropeanParliament’s #FisheriesCommittee #PECHcommittee) with #BritishMEPs. The big question now is, who will be here to hold these people to account while they still control Britain’s waters, but the UK has no representation?"

June Mummery BP MEP.

Edited by Herman

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We learn today that 1400 license applications from European Financial Services Companies to open offices and trade from the UK have been made and 230 of those are from Irish companies 😲

This can't be right as I've been told for the last three and a half years that the square mile and Canary wharf were upping sticks and relocating to Dublin, Amsterdam, Paris and Frankfurt because of Brexit 🤔

It's almost as if there was a furtive Project being run...designed to put fear into people... 🤔

I'll get back to you when I think of a good name for the Project...

 

😀

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52 minutes ago, Jools said:

We learn today that 1400 license applications from European Financial Services Companies to open offices and trade from the UK have been made and 230 of those are from Irish companies 😲

This can't be right as I've been told for the last three and a half years that the square mile and Canary wharf were upping sticks and relocating to Dublin, Amsterdam, Paris and Frankfurt because of Brexit 🤔

It's almost as if there was a furtive Project being run...designed to put fear into people... 🤔

I'll get back to you when I think of a good name for the Project...

 

😀

Speaking of hubristic leavers with nothing to say about "global Britain"

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