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Jools

The Brexit Thread

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59 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

I have come late into this thread, thought i would read the posts, or most of them, since Thursday's election. Seems to be a fair number of posts raising the question of PR again, just because only 45% of voters voted for the Tories. Yet also a fair few seem to think Scotland are definitely on the way out of the UK....despite, albeit a significant landslide that parallels the Tory victory, the SNP gained 8 fewer seats than in 2015 and also 45% of Scottish voters voted for the SNP. So how would the map read if Scotland had PR based on voter percentage?

Yes, the SNP (and the Tories) benefited by FPTP even more so than the Tories did across the whole of the UK - under a PR system SNP would have had mid to high twenties of seats rather than the 48 they actually ended up with.

However I certainly wouldn't assume that because the SNP only got 45% in this elections that the Scots won't vote for independence in the coming referendum - Scotland as a whole is very strongly remain, as are all the Scottish parties except for the Tories. But whilst we are still in the EU then clearly many remainers will vote for 'their' party be it Lib Dem, Green or Labour.

But assuming Brexit goes ahead as expected in the New Year, then the Scots will have a completely different scenario in front of them compared the the last independence referendum, and the 2015, 2017 and 2019 general elections. They will be offered a choice of an independent Scotland (free from Westminister control which many of them not surprisely despise) inside the EU, or stay where they are as part of struggling UK. So most of the SNP 45% are banked votes for independence but there are going to be plenty of Remain, i.e. EU minded Lib Dems, Greens and Labour voters very likely to back independence with EU membership on offer.

And think of the campaign, Boris' **** may work well in England but it doesn't cut it at all in Scotland. In the last referendum Cameron and Brown were both well respected in Scotland, this time..................... Nicola Sturgeon will make mincemeat out anyone the 2019 Tories are foolish enough to put up against her.

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Boris Johnson plans to pour billions into Midlands and North. Government earmarks infrastructure funds for areas that turned Conservative

 Boris Johnson will tell his newly elected MPs on Monday that the government plans to direct billions of pounds of investment into the midlands and north of England — areas whose support delivered last week’s crushing election victory. The prime minister will promise the 109 new Conservative MPs arriving in Westminster that the government will start pouring cash into parts of Britain that had never previously voted Tory, and push ahead with Brexit immediately. 

 

Good stuff if it happens.

Edited by Van wink

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Brian Clough is now the Welsh secretary and Nicky Morgan took a step away from politics to sit in the Cabinet.🤨

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1 hour ago, Van wink said:


Boris Johnson plans to pour billions into Midlands and North. Government earmarks infrastructure funds for areas that turned Conservative

 Boris Johnson will tell his newly elected MPs on Monday that the government plans to direct billions of pounds of investment into the midlands and north of England — areas whose support delivered last week’s crushing election victory. The prime minister will promise the 109 new Conservative MPs arriving in Westminster that the government will start pouring cash into parts of Britain that had never previously voted Tory, and push ahead with Brexit immediately. 

 

Good stuff if it happens.

Go on, surely you can trust Johnson

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4 hours ago, Jools said:

So it's just a coincidence that most educated towns and cities vote and voted Labour then? 🙃

Fixed

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7 hours ago, ricardo said:

I see the Corbynistas mean to keep control of the party.

Rebecca Wrong Daily now favourite to take over.

Yeah, well out in front, don't understand why though.

 

image.thumb.png.e63c637a6a8348e85fe39e62bc082525.png

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24 minutes ago, Icecream Snow said:

Yeah, well out in front, don't understand why though.

 

image.thumb.png.e63c637a6a8348e85fe39e62bc082525.png

They will skip a generation so irrespective of policies it won’t be Starmer, Cooper or Thornberry. 

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Dan Jarvis would be a very sensible choice to bridge the divide - Northern seat, mayor of Sheffield, Nottingham born, former military man and very competent and coherent. Credible and electable. Very understated manner but I think that would sit well with the Northern voters who don't like all the circus antics of parliament.

Clive Lewis, Rayner, Lisa Nandy or Keir Starmer would also be solid choices.

Jess Phillips would be a shot in the dark. She's more of a loose cannon - might work, equally might just explode in their face. I like her but not sure how she comes across to the electorate en masse.

Long-Bailey would be an horrific choice. Absolutely the worst choice they could make.

It'll be Long-Bailey then no doubt

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3 hours ago, Herman said:

Isn't it "the pot calling the kettle black"?🤣

Just when you think he couldn't prove to be much dimmer, he impresses yet again.

No wonder Pearl dumped him... although she did have her Instagram career to think of too, I guess.

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41 minutes ago, kick it off said:

Dan Jarvis would be a very sensible choice to bridge the divide - Northern seat, mayor of Sheffield, Nottingham born, former military man and very competent and coherent. Credible and electable. Very understated manner but I think that would sit well with the Northern voters who don't like all the circus antics of parliament.

Clive Lewis, Rayner, Lisa Nandy or Keir Starmer would also be solid choices.

Jess Phillips would be a shot in the dark. She's more of a loose cannon - might work, equally might just explode in their face. I like her but not sure how she comes across to the electorate en masse.

Long-Bailey would be an horrific choice. Absolutely the worst choice they could make.

It'll be Long-Bailey then no doubt

I have no idea about any of them, KIO, but why so opposed to Long Bailey? Because she is seemingly a Corbynista or is it a lack of talent? 

It is not clear to me whether Corbynism will survive. Some plainly want to keep it going. Others not. But in any event she doesn’t have the unelectable baggage - some genuine, some much less so, and some just a rightwing tabloid fantasy - that Corbyn had. And some aspects of the Labour manifesto, whether Corbynism or not, are worth keeping.

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54 minutes ago, kick it off said:

 

Long-Bailey would be an horrific choice. Absolutely the worst choice they could make.

It'll be Long-Bailey then no doubt

😉

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4 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said:

I have no idea about any of them, KIO, but why so opposed to Long Bailey? Because she is seemingly a Corbynista or is it a lack of talent? 

It is not clear to me whether Corbynism will survive. Some plainly want to keep it going. Others not. But in any event she doesn’t have the unelectable baggage - some genuine, some much less so, and some just a rightwing tabloid fantasy - that Corbyn had. And some aspects of the Labour manifesto, whether Corbynism or not, are worth keeping.

Look at who is supporting her - McDonnell, Burgon etc. She is the Corbyn 2.0 candidate and if we've learnt anything the electorate does not want Corbynism. I agree Corbyn was toxic, but the problems run deeper than just him. The party needs a fresh direction and someone with a bit of personality. Long-Bailey to me just seems devoid of personality and a continuation of the failed direction of Labour.

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Just now, kick it off said:

Look at who is supporting her - McDonnell, Burgon etc. She is the Corbyn 2.0 candidate and if we've learnt anything the electorate does not want Corbynism. I agree Corbyn was toxic, but the problems run deeper than just him. The party needs a fresh direction and someone with a bit of personality. Long-Bailey to me just seems devoid of personality and a continuation of the failed direction of Labour.

Thanks.

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4 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said:

Thanks.

In looking deeper at the others - Starmer was pushing for the referendum position and has a north london seat so not likely to take the top job but instrumental part of the new leader's team.

Lots of political will to have a woman as next leader which probably rules Lewis and Jarvis out (wrongly) before it's begun.

Rayner or Nandy are both credible and have some charisma. Northern background. Northern seats and not tainted by the last election.

Edited by kick it off

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Just now, kick it off said:

In looking deeper at the others - Starmer was pushing for the referendum position and has a north london seat so not likely to take the top job but instrumental part of the new leader's team.

Lots of political will to have a woman as next leader which probably rules Lewis and Jarvis out (wrongly) before it's begun.

Rayner or Nandy are both credible and have some charisma. Northern background. Northern seats.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/16/angela-rayner-rebecca-long-bailey-labour

😲😳🤣

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4 minutes ago, kick it off said:

In looking deeper at the others - Starmer was pushing for the referendum position and has a north london seat so not likely to take the top job but instrumental part of the new leader's team.

Lots of political will to have a woman as next leader which probably rules Lewis and Jarvis out (wrongly) before it's begun.

Rayner or Nandy are both credible and have some charisma. Northern background. Northern seats and not tainted by the last election.

It seems as if it might be Long-Bailey with Rayner as deputy. If so, and it is more of a collegiate leadership, that might ease your fears? My guess would be that even if Long-Bailey is the choice of the Corbynistas that doesn’t necessarily mean she will keep to their script.

 

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1 minute ago, PurpleCanary said:

It seems as if it might be Long-Bailey with Rayner as deputy. If so, and it is more of a collegiate leadership, that might ease your fears? My guess would be that even if Long-Bailey is the choice of the Corbynistas that doesn’t necessarily mean she will keep to their script.

Nah, I just don't see her offering a credible opposition. I'd rather take the shot in the dark with Jess Phillips than take RLB and Rayner as a duo. I like Rayner, but can't understand why she'd sideline herself and play sidekick to Long-Bailey when she's clearly a stronger candidate.

If it's RLB-Rayner ticket, then it's likely to garner a lot of internal support within Labour but I would much rather see anyone else get the top job. Nandy might give them a run for their money but if Rayner positions herself with RLB (which is not a given, as Burgon was eyeing up that spot) then Nandy would need a strong second in command.

Nandy and Phillips could work - Northern seat and Midlands seat - and think their styles would complement each other very well. Think Phillips' biggest knock in this run would be lack of front bench experience and only 4 years in the Commons. Running behind Nandy with a view to a natural succession might be a sensible path for her if she harbours ambitions for leader.

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5 minutes ago, kick it off said:

Seen it already - it's the wrong decision. I do think that she may come full circle on it though and decide to go for leader adter all. 

Aye.

I think the left/liberals need to come to the realisation that it's a popularity contest and the average voter isn't that interested in detail or policy. They are more interested in "celebrity" , style over substance. They've got to be more cynical, the tories definitely are, and although not a pleasant way of running a country, we are where we are.

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Imagine Angela Rayner at the despatch box after a put-down by Boris - "Am I bovvered? Do I look bovvered?"  🤣

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