Jump to content
Note to existing users - password reset is required Read more... ×
Jools

The Brexit Thread

Recommended Posts

15 minutes ago, ron obvious said:

OK. We would ensure that Scotland would be economically worse off outside the union.

 

How, what with and why?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Herman said:

How, what with and why?

I was refining my reply to PC after Badger objected to my use of 'punishing'. If the EU must ensure that we are economically worse off after leaving the EU then by the same logic the UK should ensure that Scotland is economically worse off after leaving the UK.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, ron obvious said:

I was refining my reply to PC after Badger objected to my use of 'punishing'. If the EU must ensure that we are economically worse off after leaving the EU then by the same logic the UK should ensure that Scotland is economically worse off after leaving the UK.

The EU has to position itself that way so that nutters like Le Pen don't bring the whole house of cards down by using Britain as a shining beacon of how good it would be for France outside the EU (for example). Not sure there is the same political will to keep the UK together to be honest, if Scotland goes then does it really matter that the whole UK breaks up? Are we that bothered about keeping Wales and NI that we would stop Scotland getting a good deal to keep Wales and NI within the union? I doubt it somehow.

You're missing the key element of motive here. The situations aren't as parallel as you seem to think.

Edited by kick it off

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, ron obvious said:

OK. We would ensure that Scotland would be economically worse off outside the union.

 

Where have we heard that before 😀
 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, kick it off said:

The EU has to position itself that way so that nutters like Le Pen don't bring the whole house of cards down by using Britain as a shining beacon of how good it would be for France outside the EU (for example). Not sure there is the same political will to keep the UK together to be honest, if Scotland goes then does it really matter that the whole UK breaks up? Are we that bothered about keeping Wales and NI that we would stop Scotland getting a good deal to keep Wales and NI within the union? I doubt it somehow.

You're missing the key element of motive here. The situations aren't as parallel as you seem to think.

OK. So it's acceptable to make people economically worse off to ensure they don't elect governments you don't like, even if that government is democratically elected.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, ron obvious said:

OK. So it's acceptable to make people economically worse off to ensure they don't elect governments you don't like, even if that government is democratically elected.

What are you even talking about? We chose to leave the EU. If you leave a club, you lose the benefits of the club. That's not the EU making us worse off, it's the people who voted for Brexit leaving us worse off. If you extend the advantages of the club to people who don't belong to the club, then the club itself becomes pointless. It's not difficult to grasp....

Edited by kick it off
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, Van wink said:

Is it really? So you think the Win was down to Tory tactics, nothing to do with  Corbyn wrapping  it and adding a bow?😀

 

Yes I do.  Think I've made my views on Labour's stupidity very clear and they undoubtedly made the liar's task much easier than it should have been.

But his tactics were set as soon as he walked into 10, in fact they were given a trial run in the leadership contest and proved equally effective amongst the Tories themselves.

So yes, I think DAG's critique is absolutely spot on 😀

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

.

12 minutes ago, kick it off said:

What are you even talking about? We chose to leave the EU. If you leave a club, you lose the benefits of the club. That's not the EU making us worse off, it's the people who voted for Brexit leaving us worse off. If you extend the advantages of the club to people who don't belong to the club, then the club itself becomes pointless. It's not difficult to grasp....

And if Scotland leaves the UK it's leaving the UK club. And I believe they do quite a lot of trade with us. Plus receive a lot of money via the Barnett formula. So perhaps we should ensure the Scots would be worse off in the way the EU must ensure we'd be worse off

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, ron obvious said:

.

And if Scotland leaves the UK it's leaving the UK club. And I believe they do quite a lot of trade with us. Plus receive a lot of money via the Barnett formula. So perhaps we should ensure the Scots would be worse off in the way the EU must ensure we'd be worse off

But again you're missing the point. The EU want to stay together as a club, if Scotland leaves our little club, does anyone really care if Wales and NI do too? The SNP already accepted they'd take an economic hit from independence - they admitted that before the last referendum.

Plus the fact, I doubt we'd be desperate to do the Scots any favours if they did go for independence (which is utterly inevitable now), in the same way the EU won't do us any. You're equating some little Englander entitlement to the EU being outrageously behaved. The EU doesn't owe us a living, and will act in the interests of their members - if that results in us getting a terrible deal that makes us far worse economically, then thats YOUR fault. You were warned. I have said from day one the EU holds all the cards. Once out of the club - the EU will act in their own self-interest, as should be obvious to anyone with a brain.

Their self-interest is aligned around getting the best possible trade deal for their member states, and they will look for common ground with the UK but ultimately, any deal that is not materially worse for the UK than being in the club is not worth doing, they'd be signing their own death warrant and breaking up the union.

If Scotland leave, then I have no doubt Westminster will be acting in their own self interest too. I suspect that will align a little more closely around mutual interests due to the nature of shared currency etc, but ultimately, they won't be looked at from the same perspective as there will be little desire to keep the other states within our UK union.

Edited by kick it off
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, kick it off said:

But again you're missing the point. The EU want to stay together as a club, if Scotland leaves our little club, does anyone really care if Wales and NI do too? The SNP already accepted they'd take an economic hit from independence - they admitted that before the last referendum.

Plus the fact, I doubt we'd be desperate to do the Scots any favours if they did go for independence (which is utterly inevitable now), in the same way the EU won't do us any. You're equating some little Englander entitlement to the EU being outrageously behaved. The EU doesn't owe us a living, and will act in the interests of their members - if that results in us getting a terrible deal that makes us far worse economically, then thats YOUR fault. You were warned. I have said from day one the EU holds all the cards. Once out of the club - the EU will act in their own self-interest, as should be obvious to anyone with a brain.

Their self-interest is aligned around getting the best possible trade deal for their member states, and they will look for common ground with the UK but ultimately, any deal that is not materially worse for the UK than being in the club is not worth doing, they'd be signing their own death warrant and breaking up the union.

If Scotland leave, then I have no doubt Westminster will be acting in their own self interest too. I suspect that will align a little more closely around mutual interests due to the nature of shared currency etc, but ultimately, they won't be looked at from the same perspective as there will be little desire to keep the other states within our UK union.

Reassuring to know it's all MY fault.

On the other hand, perhaps it's YOUR fault for characterising all leavers as thick, racist, xenophobic, Little Englanders. Call me a cvnt & I'm unlikely to warm to you.

And if the only way you can hold a club together is by threatening its members with dire consequences if they leave, then it's not a club I want to be part of.

You seem to fundamentally misunderstand the reason for trade. Nobody would ever do a trade deal unless there were some advantage to both sides - otherwise why bother? We may well lose some markets after leaving the EU, that's up to the EU, but to deliberately rig such a deal so as to impoverish the UK in order to hold itself together is not I think a good idea, any more than it would for any other empire.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Can Scotland even afford to operate on its own? I know the SNP were forced to admit that they’d be an economic hit but J thought the reality was that Scotland didn’t make enough money from tax receipts to actually fund all the Scottish services, hence the Barnet formula and the additional per-head spending in Scotland?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, ron obvious said:

Reassuring to know it's all MY fault.

On the other hand, perhaps it's YOUR fault for characterising all leavers as thick, racist, xenophobic, Little Englanders. Call me a cvnt & I'm unlikely to warm to you.

And if the only way you can hold a club together is by threatening its members with dire consequences if they leave, then it's not a club I want to be part of.

You seem to fundamentally misunderstand the reason for trade. Nobody would ever do a trade deal unless there were some advantage to both sides - otherwise why bother? We may well lose some markets after leaving the EU, that's up to the EU, but to deliberately rig such a deal so as to impoverish the UK in order to hold itself together is not I think a good idea, any more than it would for any other empire.

YOU voted for it, I didn't, certainly not my fault! Maybe, people wouldn't speak about Leavers in that way, if they were capable of offering any real argument for leaving other than the imaginary abstract concept of "sovereignty" - when you've had 3 and a half years, yet still cannot construct a coherent argument to support your position, then it's a little difficult to engage with on any other level.

They didn't threaten us to stay in. Nobody once said that. We were warned that the natural consequence of leaving would be a massive economic hit - maybe, because the benefits of that club were pretty bloody beneficial.

You were arguing they were going to the rig the deal a minute ago - your new position is correct, they aren't going to rig the deal, because they don't need to. They have every card in the deck. They will do a deal with us because we bring something to the table, but ultimately it will be massively favourable to them because they don't need us, and we are scrounging around for the scraps as our choice is take what we're offered or starve. You seem to think that we are trading on an equal footing so the deal with be equally equitable but that's simply not the case.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, kick it off said:

YOU voted for it, I didn't, certainly not my fault! Maybe, people wouldn't speak about Leavers in that way, if they were capable of offering any real argument for leaving other than the imaginary abstract concept of "sovereignty" - when you've had 3 and a half years, yet still cannot construct a coherent argument to support your position, then it's a little difficult to engage with on any other level.

They didn't threaten us to stay in. Nobody once said that. We were warned that the natural consequence of leaving would be a massive economic hit - maybe, because the benefits of that club were pretty bloody beneficial.

You were arguing they were going to the rig the deal a minute ago - your new position is correct, they aren't going to rig the deal, because they don't need to. They have every card in the deck. They will do a deal with us because we bring something to the table, but ultimately it will be massively favourable to them because they don't need us, and we are scrounging around for the scraps as our choice is take what we're offered or starve. You seem to think that we are trading on an equal footing so the deal with be equally equitable but that's simply not the case.

So what is the SNP's coherent argument for independence?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If the EU allowed us frictionless trade and basically all the benefits of membership with non of the drawbacks that would be great for us.

Unfortunately everyone else would wonder why they are staying in the EU while being undercut by the UK and so will question their membership

End result being a disbanded EU with all of us dealing with each other (and others such as the US/China) separately with less power than as a single larger entity. So worse off than where we all are now.

The same wouldn’t apply if Scotland left. Once they go you’re comparing the deal you do with them Vs the price of Wales and NI also leaving. Tiny populations in comparison with what remains of the EU.  

  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, ron obvious said:

So what is the SNP's coherent argument for independence?

Remaining in the EU, a club with massive economic benefits for a start. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, Canary Wundaboy said:

Can Scotland even afford to operate on its own? I know the SNP were forced to admit that they’d be an economic hit but J thought the reality was that Scotland didn’t make enough money from tax receipts to actually fund all the Scottish services, hence the Barnet formula and the additional per-head spending in Scotland?

I think their response would be that the hit will be a short term one which will certainly be manageable. When they leave they will be fast-tracked back into the EU and certainly have a number of regions which will receive very significant funding from the EU. There will of course be a big bust up about them getting a fair share of the oil revenue (which currently they don't) but quite aside from that they believe, and with some justification, that they can run their economy much better and more successfully than Westminister.

They also have considerable natural resources, especially in renewable energy, which have been hamstrung by the Tories opposition to renewables, which they can exploit pretty rapidly (another dollop of substantial EU funding - they have just annouced a huge new green deal for the EU - I think on Thursday, the same day that the UK turned its back on the idea!!).

Finallly bear in mind that the UK economy as a whole doesn't make  'enough money from tax receipts to actually fund all the services. It hasn't done that for over ten years and it is unlikely to do so in the next 10 years either - and that is before the UK takes the hit of actually leaving the EU.

So the situation is very different to the time of the previous referendum when there was almost certainly some short pain involved in independence for the Scots. This time around I suspect that it will be a very difficult argument to make - it won't stop people trying of course but the SNP will have some very strong rebuttals to hand. If, of course, any one is still interested in the economy - it doesn't seem to be an important topic in UK elections any more, not in the last few years anyway so I doubt it would be such a decisive factor next time as it was a few years ago.

Edited by Creative Midfielder
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, ron obvious said:

Reassuring to know it's all MY fault.

On the other hand, perhaps it's YOUR fault for characterising all leavers as thick, racist, xenophobic, Little Englanders. Call me a cvnt & I'm unlikely to warm to you.

And if the only way you can hold a club together is by threatening its members with dire consequences if they leave, then it's not a club I want to be part of.

You seem to fundamentally misunderstand the reason for trade. Nobody would ever do a trade deal unless there were some advantage to both sides - otherwise why bother? We may well lose some markets after leaving the EU, that's up to the EU, but to deliberately rig such a deal so as to impoverish the UK in order to hold itself together is not I think a good idea, any more than it would for any other empire.

As I've often pointed out Ron there are some who don't even want to learn but stick with their same old failing story, and then become surprised when they continue to fail. 

As anyone who has ever been a teacher knows you can't teach those who do not wish to learn.

I think most of us can see the point you are making and agree it is a valuable observation. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
44 minutes ago, Canary Wundaboy said:

Can Scotland even afford to operate on its own? I know the SNP were forced to admit that they’d be an economic hit but J thought the reality was that Scotland didn’t make enough money from tax receipts to actually fund all the Scottish services, hence the Barnet formula and the additional per-head spending in Scotland?

They don't make enough money by themselves and rely heavily on subsidies from England to make up the shortfall. So the first question to be answered, would the EU actually want another small state requiring subsidies as a member? Politically yes, but economically it doesn't make sense. 

Then one can see that the. EU could demand very tough terms from a state so eager to join the EU club. Terms such as signing up to an EU army and to the Euro. 

Imagine the cultural shock of the abandonment of all those famous Scottish regiments being merged into some European Defence Force where the soldiers wear pony tails. 

Imagine also the fiscal shock of being forced into the Euro when Sturgeon had promised to keep the pound sterling - despite the BoE telling them that it wasn't possible 

Anyway, it's all a moot point because  Boris's majority means that the once-in-a-lifetime 2014 indyref will mean what it says on the side of the packet. We are living in a new political world to which we all need to adapt

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Hillhead said:

If the EU allowed us frictionless trade and basically all the benefits of membership with non of the drawbacks that would be great for us.

Unfortunately everyone else would wonder why they are staying in the EU while being undercut by the UK and so will question their membership

End result being a disbanded EU with all of us dealing with each other (and others such as the US/China) separately with less power than as a single larger entity. So worse off than where we all are now.

The same wouldn’t apply if Scotland left. Once they go you’re comparing the deal you do with them Vs the price of Wales and NI also leaving. Tiny populations in comparison with what remains of the EU.  

You make a compelling argument for a Common Market, and if that is what we were, I suggest we all - including our friends on the continent - would be happy with that. 

I would like to see our country now make a case for a Common Market in Europe with all the political element that the EU brings stripped out. 

Edited by Rock The Boat

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, ron obvious said:

OK. We would ensure that Scotland would be economically worse off outside the union.

 

We wouldn't ensure it at all. We would apply the same rules to Scotland as we did to other EU nations. They would have to make the calculation as to whether they were better of with single market access and the four freedoms (labour being a particular need for them) or trade with the rest of Britain and whatever deals are agreed elsewhere. I'm sure that this would be a big issue in any referendum that might take place.

They might decide that they were better of in the long term being in the EU or they may decide they are better of in the UK. We certainly could not offer them less favourable terms than the rest of the EU and for historic reasons they might end up with better terms (as Ireland did post-partition).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, ron obvious said:

So what is the SNP's coherent argument for independence?

 

I think it is similar to the Leaver argument in the UK. Some  believe that the gain in sovereignty is worth any economic loss. As with some Leavers here, others believe that in the long term at least there would be economic advantages to separation.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
53 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

You make a compelling argument for a Common Market, and if that is what we were I suggest we all - including our friends on the continent - would be happy with that. 

I would like to see our country now make a case for a Common Market in Europe with all the political element that the EU brings stripped out. 

Possibly - the irony is that it was Mrs Thatcher who pushed so strongly for the single market replacing the common market. This required regulatory union (to harmonise the four freedoms) which is despised, rightly or wrongly, by Brexiteers. 

What I always find confusing is that the PM who did more than any other to bring about regulatory union is seen (basically on the strength of a couple of speeches) as being ant-EU.

She more than anyone else in the UK is the architect of the modern EU. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, Badger said:

Possibly - the irony is that it was Mrs Thatcher who pushed so strongly for the single market replacing the common market. This required regulatory union (to harmonise the four freedoms) which is despised, rightly or wrongly, by Brexiteers. 

What I always find confusing is that the PM who did more than any other to bring about regulatory union is seen (basically on the strength of a couple of speeches) as being ant-EU.

She more than anyone else in the UK is the architect of the modern EU. 

True. She was very enthusiastic for it. She later admitted she had made a mistake

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, ron obvious said:

Reassuring to know it's all MY fault.

On the other hand, perhaps it's YOUR fault for characterising all leavers as thick, racist, xenophobic, Little Englanders. Call me a cvnt & I'm unlikely to warm to you.

And if the only way you can hold a club together is by threatening its members with dire consequences if they leave, then it's not a club I want to be part of.

You seem to fundamentally misunderstand the reason for trade. Nobody would ever do a trade deal unless there were some advantage to both sides - otherwise why bother? We may well lose some markets after leaving the EU, that's up to the EU, but to deliberately rig such a deal so as to impoverish the UK in order to hold itself together is not I think a good idea, any more than it would for any other empire.

I haven't read all the precursors to this but from my perspective.

Brexit was never an economic argument - it falls at the first hurdle if you try to make it -  and is why Thatcher (not known for wooly thinking) embraced indeed created the single market for good economic reasons.

The 'original' argument for Brexit was immigration - all those Eastern Europeans taking our jobs on farms, in care homes and the NHS.

 

Anyway that is moot now - the question is what is next.

Does Boris go down the free market route as beloved by the the ERG - zero import tariffs - destruction of all those Welsh farmers (and other farmers) incomes and also UK manufacturing industry (as Minford the Brexiters own pet economist predicts). That will go down really well in all those left behind Leave now Tory heartlands. Love and kisses suckers, Boris xxx

OR - Does he go down the protectionist route - more in-line with the Labour Leave base - but that of course precludes any US deal - or really any significant others - and of course our export markets would immediately raise tariffs to match on our export products and any 'dumping'  (state subsidized steel etc) too. Hmm. Economic madness straight from the Corbyn playbook.

I suspect a middle road - stay close to the EU (and their large markets) with common tariffs. Does beg the question as to why we left at all but that is moot. We'll just have to follow their standards without any input - I suppose a bit of fiddling (literally or especially NI smuggling) around the edges.

Seems to me the REAL problems are only just starting ....

 

Now for Leicester...

Edited by Yellow Fever
1 :1 - A middle route :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Rock The Boat said:

True. She was very enthusiastic for it. She later admitted she had made a mistake

Yes she did, but it was after she had gone completely bonkers so I wouldn't attach much significance to her later ramblings.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Boris will not allow the Scots to leave until we are out, then they would have to re-apply and be given the job of sorting out the border between us and them !

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Surfer said:

The physical border part is easy - Hadrian built it in AD 122, and the foundations are still there. 

Could a second-tier wall be built on those foundations then? Asking for a football executive friend...

Edited by PurpleCanary
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Except for the most part its well within England now!

It will be interesting how the NI situation works out (the unicorns have been shot) - I presume Boris's 'no border checks' between Eire and NI and now NI and 'UK' will be just fine for Scotland - plus of course there no sectarian problem to worry about..

Edited by Yellow Fever
Re : Hadrian's Wall

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×