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The Brexit Thread

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Has RTB gone to ground again after yesterday's epic fail? It's becoming quite the pattern these days... 五不

Apples

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20 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Kantar poll today

44/32

They aren't a real polling company.

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1 hour ago, Herman said:

They aren't a real polling company.

Obviously not

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Swindon obviously believed that William Hague was going to give an unbiased opinion about Corbyn.

Its like asking Denis Skinner to give his opinion about Prince Andrew.

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There does seem to be fairly large margins between some polls. Especially allowing for a 4% window of inaccuracy.

I think it is becoming more obvious by the day that the election will be won or lost in the Labour seats in the North. I think Farage is right that many will look for a Leave party instead of their traditional Labour vote. Of course voting Labour doesn't mean Remain. Labour should be explaining that a lot clearer. If there is a referendum, the same people can vote Leave again.

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Interesting quote taken fromthe BBCbusiness live. As they say - follow themoney.

UK PLC is 'investing substantially' into the EU

Quote Message: We expect the climate for merger and acquisition (M&A) activity in the UK to remain frosty. Outbound M&A, the one bright spot in these [ONS] statistics only serves to highlight the relative attractiveness of more stable jurisdictions to invest in. It's ironic that as we fight to exit from the EU, UK PLC is working hard to invest abroad, and substantially into the EU. from Rob Donaldson RSM's head of corporate finance

Rob DonaldsonRSM's head of corporate finance

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57 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

There does seem to be fairly large margins between some polls. Especially allowing for a 4% window of inaccuracy.

I think it is becoming more obvious by the day that the election will be won or lost in the Labour seats in the North. I think Farage is right that many will look for a Leave party instead of their traditional Labour vote. Of course voting Labour doesn't mean Remain. Labour should be explaining that a lot clearer. If there is a referendum, the same people can vote Leave again.

The problem with that is that Leavers see it for what it is. An attempt to overturn their vote.

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9 minutes ago, ricardo said:

The problem with that is that Leavers see it for what it is. An attempt to overturn their vote.

I think that's actually a bit too simplistic- I suspect outsidethe committed true believers (leave or remain flavours) formany slightly disengaged voters Brexit is a bit nebulous with no strongfeelings. Neither is it an attempt to overturnas yet any vote (thatwould be a 2nd ref) even though if the polls are to be believed the countryis indeed more Remainthan Leave in the coldlight of day.

Edited by Yellow Fever

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1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

I think that's actually a bit too simplistic- I suspect outsidethe committed true believers (leave or remain flavours) formany slightly disengaged voters Brexit is a bit nebulous with no strongfeelings. Neither is it an attempt to overturnas yet any vote (thatwould be a 2nd ref) even though if the polls are to be believed the countryis indeed more Remainthan Leave in the coldlight of day.

Its a very narrow margin, there seems to be an urban myth that there has been a big change but there hasnt.The Tory poll support is firm at around the 41% ish and I dont see that changing, leave v remain poll is around 46-50and if anything support for leavehas gained a little bit. The two polling figures are inextricably linked.

Screen Shot 2019-12-03 at 13.24.24.png

Edited by Van wink

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6 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Its a very narrow margin, there seems to be an urban myth that there has been a big change but there hasnt.The Tory poll support is firm at around the 41% ish and I dont see that changing, leave v remain poll is around 46-50and if anything support for leavehas gained a little bit. The two polling figures are inextricably linked.

Screen Shot 2019-12-03 at 13.24.24.png

Yes - but ifit was just Leave vs Remain with no 'middle' in in the GE then we wouldn't have or need all the all the spending commitments from Labour AND the Tories (and all the smears). Labour is clearlynot reallyfighting on Brexit for instance!

The ToriesI agree areat the high water mark with BXP and Farage (who?) now almostirrelevant. The only question I have (and suspect) is trulymassive tacticalvoting on theday sanctioned or otherwise betweenLD and Labour. I wouldn't be at all surprised if there weren't a few shocks on the day with a few big beaststumbled.

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London in its own bubble, but this isnt encouraging for Steptoe, could big Jo nick a few seats from them?

New poll in London compared to 2017 General Election: LAB: 47% (-8) CON: 30% (-3) LIB: 15% (+6) GRN: 4% (+2) BRX: 3% (+2 compared to UKIP 2017)

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19 minutes ago, Van wink said:

London in its own bubble, but this isnt encouraging for Steptoe, could big Jo nick a few seats from them?

New poll in London compared to 2017 General Election: LAB: 47% (-8) CON: 30% (-3) LIB: 15% (+6) GRN: 4% (+2) BRX: 3% (+2 compared to UKIP 2017)

More than one way to read a poll @Van wink .....if you compare with November Labour are on a bit of a surge. With a 6% swing from the LibDems to Labour. Suspect the trend is only going one way as well (btw also a 3.5% swing from the Tories as well)

image.png.a0d56146a13724915ccd5dbd45267579.png

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2 hours ago, Van wink said:

Its a very narrow margin, there seems to be an urban myth that there has been a big change but there hasnt.The Tory poll support is firm at around the 41% ish and I dont see that changing, leave v remain poll is around 46-50and if anything support for leavehas gained a little bit. The two polling figures are inextricably linked.

It's more of a demographic shift as opposed to changing of minds. Youngsters coming onto the electoral roll are massively if favour of remain. Oldsters slipping off their perches were massively in favour of Leave. One of the reasons the Brexiteers are in a hurry and don't want to risk another vote.

Edited by BigFish
change tense!
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6 minutes ago, BigFish said:

More than one way to read a poll @Van wink .....if you compare with November Labour are on a bit of a surge. With a 6% swing from the LibDems to Labour. Suspect the trend is only going one way as well (btw also a 3.5% swing from the Tories as well)

image.png.a0d56146a13724915ccd5dbd45267579.png

YesLondon does looks bad for the Tories = Labour+8 !

Actually I think there is a lot of noise in these polls and various MSM 'spin' the resultsto suit their readersi.e.the 'Sun' today!

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Just now, BigFish said:

It's more of a demographic shift as opposed to changing of minds. Youngsters coming onto the electoral roll are massively if favour of remain. Oldsters slipping off their perches are massively in favour of Leave. One of the reasons the Brexiteers are in a hurry and don't want to risk another vote.

If you look at the poll graph for leave v remain that I posted the evidence doesnt seemsupport what you say.

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1 minute ago, Yellow Fever said:

YesLondon does looks bad for the Tories = Labour+8 !

Actually I think there is a lot of noise in these polls and various MSM 'spin' the resultsto suit their readersi.e.the 'Sun' today!

The poll I posted showed the comparison with 2017 where Labour are -8

All these 8's are confusing arent they

The overall picture there is a gloomy one for Labour when you consider London is one of their last major strongholds.

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3 minutes ago, Van wink said:

The poll I posted showed the comparison with 2017 where Labour are -8

All these 8's are confusing arent they

The overall picture there is a gloomy one for Labour when you consider London is one of their last major strongholds.

Labour is up 8 since November

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3 minutes ago, BigFish said:

It's more of a demographic shift as opposed to changing of minds. Youngsters coming onto the electoral roll are massively if favour of remain. Oldsters slipping off their perches were massively in favour of Leave. One of the reasons the Brexiteers are in a hurry and don't want to risk another vote.

I always thought'Brexit' was the right answer but to a different question.If the question was do you wish to go back to a rose tinted 1970's view of the world and the UK'splacewithin it, reopenthe coal mines, steelworks and heavy industry (what's a PC?)and jobs for life at NorwichUnion then vote Brexit.

If the question was however do you wish to be a 'Leader of the Pack' in the 21st century modern integrated world then it has to be Remain.

That's why 'age' is one of the strongest indicators of Brexit views.

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5 minutes ago, BigFish said:

Labour is up 8 since November

Yeh but still 8 behind where they were in 2017.......when they lost!

If they were making strong gains "up north" the picture may be different....but sadly for them it appears they're not atm.

Edited by Van wink

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4 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

There does seem to be fairly large margins between some polls. Especially allowing for a 4% window of inaccuracy.

I think it is becoming more obvious by the day that the election will be won or lost in the Labour seats in the North. I think Farage is right that many will look for a Leave party instead of their traditional Labour vote. Of course voting Labour doesn't mean Remain. Labour should be explaining that a lot clearer. If there is a referendum, the same people can vote Leave again.

TBH KG I think Labour's problem is far bigger than that - after all for anyone that has the slightest interest Labour's position is actually pretty straightforward already - they've been sat firmly on the fence for the last three and a half years and they'd like to carry on like that for a good while longer. That seems simple and clear to me but the trouble is its no longer a credible proposition for the voters.

That IMO is one of the main reasons why they have passed up the chance to win a historic and hugely important election. The other major reason is that in an even greater piece of stupidity and tactical ineptitude they have refused to work with the other parties.

Labour are not fighting this election on Brexit they are fighting it on anti-Tory austerity and as such they have ready made potential partners in virtually every other party contesting the election bar the DUP and the Brexit Company. Their failure to co-operate with the other opposition parties is IMO an act of mind blowing stupidity and will cost them dearly.

I'm still hoping that Labour will somehow manage to hang onto enough seats to deliver a hung Parliament but it is looking increasingly unlikely (this huge campaigning machine called Momentum we've heard so much about appears to be up on bricks with the wheels off!). It seems almost inconceivable that the Tories could win another election after nine years of total screw ups and misery, even with all the assistance of their media and propoganda friends but Labour have just gifted it to them without a fight.

Edited by Creative Midfielder

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2 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Clearly not dying quick enough, a good dose of Norwalk should do the trick:classic_biggrin:

The issue thoughis that nearly all pensioners vote - youngsters not so much and alsoless stable as to location.

That said - all the polls tryto take these effects intoaccounts and modify their raw data accordingly - and that'swhy an unexpected 'Youth Quake' could easily makemockery of existingpredictions.The polls are just polls and are best read as trends.

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Just now, Van wink said:

Yeh but still 8 behind where they were in 2017.......when they lost!

If they were making strong gains "up north" the picture may be different....but sadly fr them it appears they're not atm.

I thought your point was that LibDems might take some Labour London seats? Even on this poll (ignoring the fact that the direction of travel is in Labour's favour) they fall well short. Although they would make a gain from the Tories.

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37 minutes ago, BigFish said:

I thought your point was that LibDems might take some Labour London seats? Even on this poll (ignoring the fact that the direction of travel is in Labour's favour) they fall well short. Although they would make a gain from the Tories.

You are getting confused BF. There is a 2.5 percent swing from Lab to the Tories since 2017.

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44 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

TBH KG I think Labour's problem is far bigger than that - after all for anyone that has the slightest interest Labour's position is actually pretty straightforward already - they've been sat firmly on the fence for the last three and a half years and they'd like to carry on like that for a good while longer. That seems simple and clear to me but the trouble is its no longer a credible proposition for the voters.

That IMO is one of the main reasons why they have passed up the chance to win a historic and hugely important election. The other major reason is that in an even greater piece of stupidity and tactical ineptitude they have refused to work with the other parties.

Labour are not fighting this election on Brexit they are fighting it on anti-Tory austerity and as such they have ready made potential partners in virtually every other party contesting the election bar the DUP and the Brexit Company. Their failure to co-operate with the other opposition parties is IMO an act of mind blowing stupidity and will cost them dearly.

I'm still hoping that Labour will somehow manage to hang onto enough seats to deliver a hung Parliament but it is looking increasingly unlikely (this huge campaigning machine called Momentum we've heard so much about appears to be up on bricks with the wheels off!). It seems almost inconceivable that the Tories could win another election after nine years of total screw ups and misery, even with all the assistance of their media and propoganda friends but Labour have just gifted it to them without a fight.

Shouldn't have picked an unelectable leader.

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Yeah, they should have gone for a fat, lying, deceitful sack of crap. The great British public seem to prefer that.

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13 minutes ago, Herman said:

Yeah, they should have gone for a fat, lying, deceitful sack of crap. The great British public seem to prefer that.

Yes Boris is all of that - and with almost any other Labour leader - same policies except Corbyn - Labour would win by a countrymile.

It's doubts about Corbyn when itcomes to defence - taking morally difficult butdecisive decisions. Hisblame anybody else other than Russiaover Skripal at first until he was draggedreluctantly to thesameconclusion.It's an anti-West bias (a leftover fromthe 1970s). Even today we have him skewered on NATO - can't 'just say it's been an excellent alliance. That'swhy he's hopeless.

Edited by Yellow Fever
Yes I know it not what you want to hear - but I'll still lend him my vote in the hope of a hung parliament.

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16 minutes ago, ricardo said:

You are getting confused BF. There is a 2.5 percent swing from Lab to the Tories since 2017.

Not confused @ricardo, just lazy writing. It was a LibDem win I was referring to, the 4.5% swing from the Tories to LD would win them Richmond Park from Zak Goldsmith rather easily. Normal caveats apply

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