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Jools

The Brexit Thread

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1 hour ago, SwindonCanary said:

Not a lot has happened whilst I've been away, except Boris has increased his lead :classic_biggrin:

CON 40 (36-44)
LAB 29 (25-33)
LD 15 (11-19)
BRX 7 (3-11)
SNP 3 --*
GRN 3 (0-7)
UKIP 0 (0-4)
PC 0 --*
TIGfC 0
 

Labour are remarkably stable at around 28%-30% which suggests the tribal vote is still intact despite the Marxist take over of the party.

Yes, it's slowly returning to a two-party vote. BXP votes moving to Con, and LD votes drifting to Labour. While it is clear that Brexiteers are going to vote for Boris, I don't quite make out what Remainers are up to. If they really want Remain then LD is their best hope. Perhaps Labour Remainers have given up on stopping Brexit and are more concerned with supporting Corbyn and his hard-left agenda. Tory Remainers are sticking with LD. There's still a lot to play for, imo, it's not cut and dried as yet.

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21 minutes ago, Herman said:

How many times did Johnson get "get brexit done" in?

EJw8epcXUAozdvK.png?resize=540,270&ssl=1

 

Although I have to say, the whole thing was dross from start to finish.

Edited by Jools
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14 minutes ago, Van wink said:

The cupboard is bare

And it's not going to get filled if we carry on with brexit. They can promise to spend as much as they like but as we don't know what our trading arrangements will be for years it is all wishful thinking.

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45 minutes ago, king canary said:

I know it shouldn't be a shock but I'm still surprised by the pure cynicism of CCHQ rebranding as 'fact check uk' on twitter for the debate. Brazenly dishonest.

Here's a shock for you. FFS.

 

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What did people genuinely think of that?

I thought Johnson won the Brexit part, with Corbyn struggling to answer the question on if he would campaign for or against his renegotiated deal. Corbyn did much better on the NHS. Other parts of the debate were pretty even.

Anyone else think it was very odd for the question of Scotland and their referendum being discussed by two Englishmen while the SNP weren't at the debate?

Hardly inspiring from either man to be honest and honour even. Can't see that changing too many opinions.

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12 minutes ago, Hairy Canary said:

What did people genuinely think of that?

I thought Johnson won the Brexit part, with Corbyn struggling to answer the question on if he would campaign for or against his renegotiated deal. Corbyn did much better on the NHS. Other parts of the debate were pretty even.

Anyone else think it was very odd for the question of Scotland and their referendum being discussed by two Englishmen while the SNP weren't at the debate?

Hardly inspiring from either man to be honest and honour even. Can't see that changing too many opinions.

I think Corbyn will be pleased. Although no winner (a draw) that's either a huge improvement for Corbyn or a fail for Johnson. 

As to Scotland.. yes outrageous being talked about as a vassal state by Johnson and no Scottish reply present

As RTB says (he gets somethings right) " There's still a lot to play for, imo, it's not cut and dried as yet."

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10 hours ago, Hairy Canary said:

What did people genuinely think of that?

I thought Johnson won the Brexit part, with Corbyn struggling to answer the question on if he would campaign for or against his renegotiated deal. Corbyn did much better on the NHS. Other parts of the debate were pretty even.

Anyone else think it was very odd for the question of Scotland and their referendum being discussed by two Englishmen while the SNP weren't at the debate?

Hardly inspiring from either man to be honest and honour even. Can't see that changing too many opinions.

I think Corbyn may well win these debates if he wasn’t hamstrung by his unwillingness to be clear about his personal position on Brexit, which historically is to leave. By continuing to try and be all things  to all women (and men), on the biggest issue of the election, he is in the same trap that May was in and it won’t end well.

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10 minutes ago, SwindonCanary said:

Boris failed badly to land the blows he needed against a lamentably bad opponent.

Welcome back, we've not missed this complete b0ll0cks.

I suspect you've been usung FactChechUK. 😀

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19 minutes ago, Van wink said:

I think Corbyn may well win these debates if he wasn’t hamstrung by his unwillingness to be clear about his personal position on Brexit, which historically is to leave. By continuing to try and be all things  to all women (and men), on the biggest issue of the election, he is in the same trap that May was in and it won’t end well.

He could just wait until the very last minute and then write two articles for a newspaper before deciding on which one to publish.

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20 minutes ago, Van wink said:

I think Corbyn may well win these debates if he wasn’t hamstrung by his unwillingness to be clear about his personal position on Brexit, which historically is to leave. By continuing to try and be all things  to all women (and men), on the biggest issue of the election, he is in the same trap that May was in and it won’t end well.

The Labour position - negotiate a better exit deal (not hard, given how potentially damaging is Johnson's) and put that up against staying in a referendum - is perfectly sensible. But it doesn't make a good soundbite or bumper sticker, which is what politics has descended to. It is also vastly more honest that Johnson's clarion-call soundbite, which is selling a Brexit he voted against - twice - when May put it forward. In essence they are the same proposals.

And Corbyn is probably also hamstrung by being more decent than Johnson (again, it would be hard not to be more decent than a serial liar) and having an old-fashioned view that policy and ideas matter more than personalities and cheap point-scoring. As evidenced by this observation made by The Guardian's sketch writer:

Corbyn couldn’t even take advantage of the most open of goals. One questioner asked about personal trust. Here was the Labour leader's chance to ask Boris how many children he had, his relationship with Jennifer Arcuri and his broken promises to family and country. It would have been a slam-dunk moment that could have maybe changed the momentum of the election. But Corbyn blew it. The first half ended with an insincere handshake.

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said:

The Labour position - negotiate a better exit deal (not hard, given how potentially damaging is Johnson's) and put that up against staying in a referendum - is perfectly sensible. But it doesn't make a good soundbite or bumper sticker, which is what politics has descended to. It is also vastly more honest that Johnson's clarion-call soundbite, which is selling a Brexit he voted against - twice - when May put it forward. In essence they are the same proposals.

 

 

Maybe but my point stands.

ps I always thought the May deal would eventually get through 😉

Edited by Van wink

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3 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said:

Corbyn couldn’t even take advantage of the most open of goals. One questioner asked about personal trust. Here was the Labour leader's chance to ask Boris how many children he had, his relationship with Jennifer Arcuri and his broken promises to family and country. It would have been a slam-dunk moment that could have maybe changed the momentum of the election. But Corbyn blew it. The first half ended with an insincere handshake.

Rightly or wrongly, Corbyn believes politics is about policies not personalities. When everyone is looking for a better type of politics he should be applauded for that.

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4 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said:

The Labour position - negotiate a better exit deal (not hard, given how potentially damaging is Johnson's) and put that up against staying in a referendum - is perfectly sensible. But it doesn't make a good soundbite or bumper sticker, which is what politics has descended to. It is also vastly more honest that Johnson's clarion-call soundbite, which is selling a Brexit he voted against - twice - when May put it forward. In essence they are the same proposals.

And Corbyn is probably also hamstrung by being more decent than Johnson (again, it would be hard not to be more decent than a serial liar) and having an old-fashioned view that policy and ideas matter more than personalities and cheap point-scoring. As evidenced by this observation made by The Guardian's sketch writer:

Corbyn couldn’t even take advantage of the most open of goals. One questioner asked about personal trust. Here was the Labour leader's chance to ask Boris how many children he had, his relationship with Jennifer Arcuri and his broken promises to family and country. It would have been a slam-dunk moment that could have maybe changed the momentum of the election. But Corbyn blew it. The first half ended with an insincere handshake.

 

 

 

That's quite fair.

 

I think the Twitter 'scandal ( and yes Twitter should and must take that account down) is far more informative as to 'Truth' & 'Trust' and the systemic lack thereof of Johnson's party.

 

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1 minute ago, BigFish said:

Rightly or wrongly, Corbyn believes politics is about policies not personalities. When everyone is looking for a better type of politics he should be applauded for that.

You may be right, but he has to get into power to make his policies reality, as long as he continues to behave like the leader of a pressure group rather than accepting what has to be done to gain power he will never be PM

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1 minute ago, BigFish said:

Rightly or wrongly, Corbyn believes politics is about policies not personalities. When everyone is looking for a better type of politics he should be applauded for that.

Yes, BF. Indeed. My point entirely. To be clear, because these things can sometimes get a misleading life of their own, what you quoted looked as if it was from me but actually was from Crace, The Guardian sketch-writer, and I was saying how sad it was that was the way politics had gone:

And Corbyn is probably also hamstrung by being more decent than Johnson (again, it would be hard not to be more decent than a serial liar) and having an old-fashioned view that policy and ideas matter more than personalities and cheap point-scoring. As evidenced by this observation made by The Guardian's sketch writer:

'Corbyn couldn’t even take advantage of the most open of goals. One questioner asked about personal trust. Here was the Labour leader's chance to ask Boris how many children he had, his relationship with Jennifer Arcuri and his broken promises to family and country. It would have been a slam-dunk moment that could have maybe changed the momentum of the election. But Corbyn blew it. The first half ended with an insincere handshake.'

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12 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

Yes, it's slowly returning to a two-party vote. BXP votes moving to Con, and LD votes drifting to Labour. While it is clear that Brexiteers are going to vote for Boris, I don't quite make out what Remainers are up to. If they really want Remain then LD is their best hope. Perhaps Labour Remainers have given up on stopping Brexit and are more concerned with supporting Corbyn and his hard-left agenda. Tory Remainers are sticking with LD. There's still a lot to play for, imo, it's not cut and dried as yet.

Anywhere apart from maybe 3 dozen constituencies (ones they won at their high point in 2005) vote for Swinson and you will get Johnson.

If you want to Remain the route in England & Wales (except Brighton) is vote Labour, in Scotland vote SNP>>2nd Ref>> Remain wins that Ref.

If you want a hard Brexit vote Johnson

If you want Lexit the route is vote Labour>>2nd Ref>>Leave wins that election.

Any other vote is wasted in this election

 

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Difficult for the Tories to spin these outputs of the YouGov Poll (Don't knows removed)

Who do you think came across as more trustworthy?

Corbyn 53% Johnson 47%

Who do you think came across as more in touch with ordinary people?

Corbyn 70%  Johnson, 19%

Who do you think performed best during the section of the debate on NHS?

Corbyn 59% Johnson, 41%

Who do you think performed best during the section of the debate on other issues [ie, not Brexit, NHS or spending]?

Corbyn 54% Johnson  46%

Edited by BigFish

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48 minutes ago, BigFish said:

Anywhere apart from maybe 3 dozen constituencies (ones they won at their high point in 2005) vote for Swinson and you will get Johnson.

If you want to Remain the route in England & Wales (except Brighton) is vote Labour, in Scotland vote SNP>>2nd Ref>> Remain wins that Ref.

If you want a hard Brexit vote Johnson

If you want Lexit the route is vote Labour>>2nd Ref>>Leave wins that election.

Any other vote is wasted in this election

 

First past the post needs to **** off and fast. Awful system.

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22 minutes ago, king canary said:

First past the post needs to **** off and fast. Awful system.

Nobody rational can disagree with that.

We will all vote tactically (an affront to democracy) - not for who we might actually want. Faragists vote Tory, Remainers likely Labour in most seats. Whoever wins won't actually represent the nation's real complex views at all. They'd all do well to remember that!

 

Edited by Yellow Fever

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1 hour ago, BigFish said:

Difficult for the Tories to spin these outputs of the YouGov Poll (Don't knows removed)

Who do you think came across as more trustworthy?

Corbyn 53% Johnson 47%

Who do you think came across as more in touch with ordinary people?

Corbyn 70%  Johnson, 19%

Who do you think performed best during the section of the debate on NHS?

Corbyn 59% Johnson, 41%

Who do you think performed best during the section of the debate on other issues [ie, not Brexit, NHS or spending]?

Corbyn 54% Johnson  46%

Who do you think will win the election Johnson 100 % Corbyn 0 %

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2 hours ago, BigFish said:

Anywhere apart from maybe 3 dozen constituencies (ones they won at their high point in 2005) vote for Swinson and you will get Johnson.

If you want to Remain the route in England & Wales (except Brighton) is vote Labour, in Scotland vote SNP>>2nd Ref>> Remain wins that Ref.

If you want a hard Brexit vote Johnson

If you want Lexit the route is vote Labour>>2nd Ref>>Leave wins that election.

Any other vote is wasted in this election

 

You may be right about these routes to an outcome, BF. But it does beg the question, if Labour is the party for Remain then why doesn't their leader come out and unequivocally state that they are the party of Remain and stop dodging the question. And if they are the party of Remain then why on earth drag out this whole process further by wanting to open negotiations with the EU again - and goodness only knows if they can get an agreement through Parliament, especially since they may vote against the agreement they they have negotiated. It's politics of the madhouse to keep dragging out Brexit for even longer period of time. We need closure on this issue.

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2 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

You may be right about these routes to an outcome, BF. But it does beg the question, if Labour is the party for Remain then why doesn't their leader come out and unequivocally state that they are the party of Remain and stop dodging the question. And if they are the party of Remain then why on earth drag out this whole process further by wanting to open negotiations with the EU again - and goodness only knows if they can get an agreement through Parliament, especially since they may vote against the agreement they they have negotiated. It's politics of the madhouse to keep dragging out Brexit for even longer period of time. We need closure on this issue.

I wasn't really writing about Labour's (or more accurately Corbyn's) view, just options for the electorate.

But as you asked the logic is that Labour is a democratic party. It considers the will of the people should be paramount. It also considers the May/Johnson withdrawal deal and future direction as incredibly harmful and not what was put to the electorate at the referendum. So the idea is to moderate this into something that protects the electorate and allows the UK to leave safely, offer this up to the electorate and if they still want to leave we will leave. If we vote to stay we will Remain.

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42 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

You may be right about these routes to an outcome, BF. But it does beg the question, if Labour is the party for Remain then why doesn't their leader come out and unequivocally state that they are the party of Remain and stop dodging the question. And if they are the party of Remain then why on earth drag out this whole process further by wanting to open negotiations with the EU again - and goodness only knows if they can get an agreement through Parliament, especially since they may vote against the agreement they they have negotiated. It's politics of the madhouse to keep dragging out Brexit for even longer period of time. We need closure on this issue.

That makes sense to me - BF's analysis does seem to reflect the way many voters may be thinking but I'm pretty sure that there are plenty of remainers who like me do not see Labour as a party of Remain at all - the fence sitting by the leadership which initially was both understandable (in terms of the division amongst Labour voters) and quite successful. But it passed its sell by date a long time ago and is no longer a credible/vote winning position (in my eyes).

When you also consider that 20ish Labour MPs voted not just for Brexit, but Boris the liar's hard Brexit (I think against a 3 line whip with no sanction, although I could be wrong about that), plus the fact that Labour have rebuffed all offers to work with the real Remain parties then it seems clear that Labour is also a Brexit party, just a slightly softer Brexit than Boris, despite a majority of their current MPs and members being Remainers - makes no sense at all to me and an electoral non-starter as far as I'm concerned.

Edited by Creative Midfielder

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55 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

When you also consider that 20ish Labour MPs voted not just for Brexit, but Boris the liar's hard Brexit (I think against a 3 line whip with no sanction, although I could be wrong about that)

It was only second reading, with the intention that the Bill could then be amended by the Commons. It was these possible amendments that provoked Johnson into surrendering the 31st October exit and collapsing Parliament.

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58 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

That makes sense to me - BF's analysis does seem to reflect the way many voters may be thinking but I'm pretty sure that there are plenty of remainers who like me do not see Labour as a party of Remain at all - the fence sitting by the leadership which initially was both understandable (in terms of the division amongst Labour voters) and quite successful. But it passed its sell by date a long time ago and is no longer a credible/vote winning position (in my eyes).

Spot on.

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58 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

That makes sense to me - BF's analysis does seem to reflect the way many voters may be thinking but I'm pretty sure that there are plenty of remainers who like me do not see Labour as a party of Remain at all - the fence sitting by the leadership which initially was both understandable (in terms of the division amongst Labour voters) and quite successful. But it passed its sell by date a long time ago and is no longer a credible/vote winning position (in my eyes).

When you also consider that 20ish Labour MPs voted not just for Brexit, but Boris the liar's hard Brexit (I think against a 3 line whip with no sanction, although I could be wrong about that), plus the fact that Labour have rebuffed all offers to work with the real Remain parties then it seems clear that Labour is also a Brexit party, just a slightly softer Brexit than Boris, despite a majority of their current MPs and members being Remainers - makes no sense at all to me and an electoral non-starter as far as I'm concerned.

The reason is of course is that Corbyn is a 1970s un-reconstructed leftie. He hasn't the smarts to overcome his 1970s view of the UK and is still fighting the 1970s Labour wars. Most of his compatriots did come to realize in the 1970s that the EU as the way forwards but not Corbyn. Sadly much the same can be said about the Brexit Tories as well.

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