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The Brexit Thread

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5 hours ago, Surfer said:

There fixed it for you... btw: duh, of course it does, always has - how do you think they elect MPs?

The Conservative Party now has more support among working-class voters than the upper classes, according to a new poll ....

 

What newspapers do the working classes mostly read? The Sun, Mail and Express. Crazy as it sounds, but it's as if the powerful and wealthy persuade the people to vote against their best interests. 

The working classes. Their own worst enemies. 

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RTB's list of topics he knows very little about but likes to pretend he does gets bigger all the time.

He must be like Johnson and addicted to lying. 😀

 

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2 hours ago, How I Wrote Elastic Man said:

In General Elections, save for 2015 where The Right polled a fraction over 50%, this is untrue

The trouble is that the right leaning voter coalesces around a single party, by and large. The left however have always split their support, (Labour, Lib Dem, Nationalist, Green) which in a first past the post system is a major disadvantage. Why Labour haven't come round to supporting PR I have never understood as it would produce an almost permanent left of center coalition.

This year, with the Brexit Party being around, it looked like that mold might be broken but recent events mean we seem to be reverting to type.  

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22 minutes ago, Hairy Canary said:

The trouble is that the right leaning voter coalesces around a single party, by and large. The left however have always split their support, (Labour, Lib Dem, Nationalist, Green) which in a first past the post system is a major disadvantage. Why Labour haven't come round to supporting PR I have never understood as it would produce an almost permanent left of center coalition.

This year, with the Brexit Party being around, it looked like that mold might be broken but recent events mean we seem to be reverting to type.  

My dream outcome in December, though I concede it is very much a dream at this stage, is a Lab/Lib coalition in which the Lib Dems demand PR as the price to support to Labour manifesto. No referendum, just a Great Reform Act II that passes a Regional PR List system that maintains some sort of regional representation whilst have a proportional parliament.

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It's fortunate that the majority of electors votes for the right

Or the wrong in many cases. The rise of the far right will only just heap pressure on the centre right. Which the ERG has managed to do with Brexit.

When the lines became blurred in the Blair/Cameron/Clegg era, the margins became tighter. And now it has become so simple for the ERG and DUP, both far right groups, to dictate.

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The Guardian has come up today with an elegant way of calling someone stupid:

It is interesting that CCHQ put up Brandon Lewis, a Home Office minister, to give interviews this morning defending what is the Conservative party’s overnight attack line against Labour - the claim that average net immigration would rise to 840,000 a year under Jeremy Corbyn – and not his boss, Priti Patel. Patel, the home secretary, is very popular with with rightwing Tories and Brexit party supporters, but she is not one of the cabinet minister most skilled at dealing with forensic questioning.

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1 hour ago, TCCANARY said:

RTB's list of topics he knows very little about but likes to pretend he does gets bigger all the time.

He must be like Johnson and addicted to lying. 😀

 

RTB is sat in a nice warm office in Tufton Street writing bollox on many a social media site. 

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33 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Still a lot of problems with PR Dan.

There's no perfect system, otherwise everyone would have it. But FPTP is about as far from perfect as any other system. It's in the same ballpark as the US's electoral college.

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From my favourite Telegraph writer:

 

This could actually be it – the end of Labour. Some may scoff, pointing out that it has narrowed the gap with the Tories in some polls. But on the ground, in the heartlands, the party smells of death.

Before the darkness always comes that euphoric moment of clarity. The Liberals felt it in 1924, when they suddenly grasped that the working-classes – towards whom they felt deep intellectual ambivalence – were about to sweep them away. Their push to make amends came too late. Today, Labour MPs across the Midlands, North and Wales are so certain the end is coming that, as one Tory puts it, “they are not even bothering to change tack”. They are either insulating their egos for the racuous humiliation of televised vote counts or they have quit – especially if their name is Tom Watson.

Historic political collapses don’t so much clang with confusion as ring with lucidity. Although they almost don’t dare to, Tory candidates can sense it on the doorstep. One standing in a Midlands market town told me: “People know they have been cheated. Lifelong Labourites are reciting ‘Let’s Get Brexit Done’, before we’ve even had a chance to bring it up.”

The Opposition’s counter-strategy is slapstick Momentum. Instead of putting Brexiteers up in marginals, it is parachuting in Corbynista loyalists. Take Natalie Fleet, who after being selected for Ashfield (70 per cent Leave), infuriated locals by trilling that Brexiteers didn’t know what they were voting for in a chalkboard-scraping Newsnight interview.

The incumbent Labour MPs who have not already resigned are imploding. The BBC – an avuncular blind-deaf national treasure no longer of this world – may rattle off dopey items on the NHS being an election-decider. But on the frontline, attempts to shift the focus from Brexit have stupendously backfired. Instead, constituents are demanding to know why Labour is blocking democracy.

Prospective candidates who desperately want to talk about police cuts and food banks are being forced back onto the stingy slogan that they “can’t back something that will harm constituents”. It has more than a slight tang of the Liberals circa 1924. As one mill striker put it then: “We have had two parties in the past, the can’ts and the won’ts, and it is time that we had a party that will.”

What is more, to the horror of Labour, Boris Johnson is proving surreally popular in the West Midlands, this election’s main battleground. An old Etonian among ordinary folk he may be, but the land of closed steelworks and sparkly glamrock connects emotionally with his gloom-piercing character. Which is why social media attacks on Johnson by Black Country Labour prospective candidates – far from going viral – have been met with sniffs of disapproval. There is less love for his rival leader. One joke doing the rounds is: “I’d rather jump in the river Trent than vote for Corbyn. An’ I co’er swim.”

In its historic heartlands, the end of Labour can’t come soon enough. It is a stillborn populist movement that has mummified hideously into a metropolitan protest group. Its story is tragic. Within 30 years of its launch, bohemian Bolshevism had smothered the hopeful pragmatism of its rank-and-file.

But if socialism crushed Labour’s spirit, Blairism sucked out its soul. To the Mandelson set, the working class was the man who griped “too many immigrants” over digestive biscuits in their focus groups, but might find himself again at a call centre in Hull. Thank the stars that Corbynism – the spoilt adolescent of Blairism – is about to blow the whole thing up in a fit of fundamentalism.

 

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" One in six patients waited longer than four hours in A&E in England during October – the worst-ever performance since a target was introduced in 2004, according to data.

The shadow health secretary, Jonathan Ashworth, said: “The Conservatives have ushered in the worst NHS crisis on record. Under Boris Johnson the NHS is in crisis and we’re heading for a winter of abject misery for patients.

“Our A&Es are overwhelmed, more so than ever. In every community there’s an ever-growing queue of people waiting for treatment. The Tories spent a decade cutting over 15,000 beds. Now they should apologise to every patient languishing on a trolley and waiting longer for treatment.”

 

I suppose it is one way for the Tories to be rid of 'useless mouths (pensioners) - kill them off through reducing health care

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41 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

From my favourite Telegraph writer

There are two types of people on this Earth, those who have a favourite Telegraph writer and those that don't.

Or to abbreviate, c*nts and non-c*nts.

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1 minute ago, canarydan23 said:

There are two types of people on this Earth, those who have a favourite Telegraph writer and those that don't.

Or to abbreviate, c*nts and non-c*nts.

it's only van wink

he gets lonely stuck out in France so amuses himself by posting up here under various names

all rather sad, really

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From my favourite Telegraph writer:

You mean you agree with what they write? I wonder if the same will be written after the election. It happens all the time. This party is gone forever. Remember the Tories with Hague and a succession of tossers. With Blair finding the centre, the media told us we would never see the Tories in Government again.

What they forget is that every now and then, people want change. Just like the Brexit vote. I will wager at least thirty per cent of the leave vote was because people fancied a change.

Corbyn will be gone and Momentum will have moved onto something else. And Labour will take over from an ailing right wing Tory Government that will not improve the NHS, Law and Order or immigration. And all those who said we want to make our own laws will find they have two chances: none and a dogs.Tax cuts will be high on their agenda and the lies that Johnson spews out will comeback to bite them.

I still expect the Tories to be the largest party and maybe even with a decent majority but I don't think anyone can call it accurately.

Edited by keelansgrandad

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17 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

From my favourite Telegraph writer:

You mean you agree with what they write? I wonder if the same will be written after the election. It happens all the time. This party is gone forever. Remember the Tories with Hague and a succession of tossers. With Blair finding the centre, the media told us we would never see the Tories in Government again.

What they forget is that every now and then, people want change. Just like the Brexit vote. I will wager at least thirty per cent of the leave vote was because people fancied a change.

Corbyn will be gone and Momentum will have moved onto something else. And Labour will take over from an ailing right wing Tory Government that will not improve the NHS, Law and Order or immigration. And all those who said we want to make our own laws will find they have two chances: none and a dogs.Tax cuts will be high on their agenda and the lies that Johnson spews out will comeback to bite them.

I still expect the Tories to be the largest party and maybe even with a decent majority but I don't think anyone can call it accurately.

Momentum won't be going anywhere soon. After Corbyn is gone, Momentum will continue to cement their grip on the Labour Party. They will deepen their control of the Labour Party Executive and there will be another far-left candidate put up in place of Jeremy, perhaps John McDonall himself, though I suspect it will be a lesser figure that the Executive can control, perhaps someone like Norwich's own Clive Lewis.

In any case the Labour membership is always to the left of Labour voters and they haven't had a leader that understood working-class people since John Smith. And until they can connect with their core, traditional voters Labour will lose out to the LibDems, Greens, Welsh Nationalists, SNP, BXP. There's plenty of choice for a Labour voter and their brand is so weak.

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13 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

The Conservative Party now has more support among working-class voters than the upper classes, according to a new poll which predicts that Boris Johnson will win a 110-seat majority at the general election.

The exclusive Savanta ComRes survey for The Daily Telegraph found that 43 per cent of voters from the DE social group are prepared to vote for the Tories on December 12, up from 35 per cent in 2017. The poll found 40 per cent of AB voters plan to back Mr Johnson compared to 46 per cent who were prepared to vote for Theresa May two years ago.

As champions of free-market capitalism, the Conservatives have always traditionally been seen as the party of the rich. However, since the UK voted to leave the European Union in 2016, the largely Remain voting so-called metropolitan liberal elite have pivoted to the Liberal Democrats. Conversely, working-class Leave voters are increasingly backing the Prime Minister’s promise to ‘get Brexit done’ in the face of Labour prevarication over a second referendum.

Although the pollster said the results may have been affected by a change in methodology since the last election, it is significant that the Tories are polling so well with lower socio-economic groups. Mr Johnson is hoping to win over Labour leave constituencies to secure a parliamentary majority on December 13. 

 

brexit track.JPG

And yet Johnson is less popular than May was in the polls. Go figure

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2 hours ago, canarydan23 said:

My dream outcome in December, though I concede it is very much a dream at this stage, is a Lab/Lib coalition in which the Lib Dems demand PR as the price to support to Labour manifesto. No referendum, just a Great Reform Act II that passes a Regional PR List system that maintains some sort of regional representation whilst have a proportional parliament.

In principle, that sounds fine but it needs to be more robust than that. Regional lists tend not to be proportional, some kind of top-up is required to fix that. Greater develolution is also needed, particularly in England. London needs equivalent powers to Scotland. Regional government is required in the English regions. The House of Lords should be fully appointed, with those appointments time limited & made by the devolved instituitions in a proportional manner.

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After yesterdays terrible 'photo ops for Johnson he's had a visit to a bakery cancelled due to a protest outside the venue.

He seems to do well when he visits schools that have very young children, maybe he connects with them on an intellectual level.

Is it time the Tories considered lowered the voting to 4 or 5 to capitalise on Johnson's new demographic?

 

 

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1 hour ago, BigFish said:

In principle, that sounds fine but it needs to be more robust than that. Regional lists tend not to be proportional, some kind of top-up is required to fix that. Greater develolution is also needed, particularly in England. London needs equivalent powers to Scotland. Regional government is required in the English regions. The House of Lords should be fully appointed, with those appointments time limited & made by the devolved instituitions in a proportional manner.

As long as the regions are big enough, it could have the affect of making it considerably more proportional whilst still creating a sufficiently high barrier to stop extreme parties getting in.

I'm reasonably open-minded to the idea of a more federal UK, the historian in me quite fancies reverting to the old kingdoms of Anglaland; Wessex, East Anglia, Mercia, Northumbria and London would be its own region.

Edited by canarydan23

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This link relates to Roger Stone, and hence Donal trump, and indirectly to Farage and Brexit, but the point of posting it here is it debates the value of truth? Stone's attorney is basically saying that lying is not a crime, truth does not matter, the prosecution attorney is saying - give us. break - truth is at the core of democracy.

The Jury will consider the case starting today. So who is right about how far society should go to protect the value of truth?

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2019/11/roger-stone-trial-closing-statement-truth-matters-movie/

Edited by Surfer

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2 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

 but I don't think anyone can call it accurately.

no,

I prefer to call it a General Election

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45 minutes ago, TCCANARY said:

Is it time the Tories considered lowered the voting to 4 or 5 to capitalise on Johnson's new demographic?

age or IQ ?

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2 hours ago, BigFish said:

And yet Johnson is less popular than May was in the polls. Go figure

at the moment polls are showing the opposite of what we were told, as voters move away from fringe partys and coalesce around the 'big two'

 a case of bigotry .....................or bigot free

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12 minutes ago, canarydan23 said:

As long as the regions are big enough, it could have the affect of making it considerably more proportional whilst still creating a sufficiently high barrier to stop extreme parties getting in.

Sorry that is not proportional, if we have PR we have to accept that some parties we may not like get representation. Also the mere fact we have Regions by defintion makes the system less proportional.

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54 minutes ago, TCCANARY said:

Is it time the Tories considered lowered the voting to 4 or 5 to capitalise on Johnson's new demographic?

age or IQ ?

 

People, 4 or 5 people.

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

Labour will lose out to the LibDems, Greens, Welsh Nationalists, SNP, BXP. There's plenty of choice for a Labour voter and their brand is so weak.

which is why they are rising in the opinion polls I suppose

 

bring back Len, or even bagster in his 'builders' van ..... a Citreon C1 🤣

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14 minutes ago, BigFish said:

if we have PR we have to accept that some parties we may not like get representation

Why? If you argue for your limitations, they are yours.

It doesn't have to be all out FPTP or PR. I despite FPTP but am not so blinkered as to deny that it does not have its strengths, excluding Nazis from one end of the spectrum and anarchists from the other. However, a weakness is that it allows mainstream political parties to ignore issues that give rise to such extreme elements as the barrier for them to ever achieve some sort of political power is so high.

Under a Regional PR List system, the barrier would be sufficiently set so that governments would need to deal with the factors driving people to extremism, whilst still making it suitably difficult to gain a foothold. Under all out PR, the BNP would have got about 12 or 13 seats in Parliament in 2010.

The other key positive of FPTP is the constituency link. PR List will retain this and in some ways strengthen it. If East Anglia was a region and contributed say 50 MPs, chances are there would be a representative for my region from half a dozen parties, therefore the vast majority of people could take their case to a member of a party more aligned to, and more sympathetic to, your ideals. At the moment as a Norwich North constituent, over half of voters have to go to an MP they did not vote for.

I don't understand this, "Well, if you are having PR then you have to have all or nothing". Why?

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7 minutes ago, canarydan23 said:

Why? If you argue for your limitations, they are yours.

It doesn't have to be all out FPTP or PR. I despite FPTP but am not so blinkered as to deny that it does not have its strengths, excluding Nazis from one end of the spectrum and anarchists from the other. However, a weakness is that it allows mainstream political parties to ignore issues that give rise to such extreme elements as the barrier for them to ever achieve some sort of political power is so high.

Under a Regional PR List system, the barrier would be sufficiently set so that governments would need to deal with the factors driving people to extremism, whilst still making it suitably difficult to gain a foothold. Under all out PR, the BNP would have got about 12 or 13 seats in Parliament in 2010.

The other key positive of FPTP is the constituency link. PR List will retain this and in some ways strengthen it. If East Anglia was a region and contributed say 50 MPs, chances are there would be a representative for my region from half a dozen parties, therefore the vast majority of people could take their case to a member of a party more aligned to, and more sympathetic to, your ideals. At the moment as a Norwich North constituent, over half of voters have to go to an MP they did not vote for.

I don't understand this, "Well, if you are having PR then you have to have all or nothing". Why?

PR is the worst of all options if only that it suggests that it somehow delivers a 'fairer' systom.

It removes the opportunity to elect a certain person as your MP. You just get whoever the party decides.

It further allows minorities such as the DUP to wield enormous power and simply ends up as in Italy where the government falls every few months.

The real problem is the whiners who crawl out at an election grizzling how awful it all is then spend the rest of the time voting for Love Island, I'm a **** keep me in here etc

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