The Positive Brexit Thread

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

36 minutes ago, Fen Canary said:

 All these recessions, emergency budgets and mass redundancies we were promised simply never happened. I’m sure one day we’ll be in recession again, it’s how the economic cycles work unfortunately, then people like yourself will gleefully point to Brexit as a cause, conveniently forgetting the other dozen predictions of economic doom you got wrong. Even a broken clock tells the correct time twice a day, so keep predicting recessions and you’ll eventually guess correctly 

😂🤣😂 Wise words, or at least they'd have a very faint chance of being had I actually said anything about a recession in my post which was almost entirely about what has already happened rather than 'predictions of economic gloom' and although you apparently have difficulty with facing reality the government's own statistics have already demonstrated that we are worse off as a result of the vote.

Of course you don't have to believe the Government, I frequently disbelieve them, but in this instance it seems highly unlikely that they would bend the figures in a way that undermines the policies they are trying to implement.

You've said several times that you wanted a reasoned debate about Brexit, which would be really interesting if it were true, but it seems as though every time a debate might get underway you retreat into this sort of nonsense. Granted you don't descend into obnoxious ranting like some of the usual suspects but it seems as though in reality you are still trying to peddle the old, long ago debunked myths and hence we are definitely going round in circles, very futile circles.

[Fen Canary 822]

12 minutes ago, Hoola Han Solo said:

 

You’re the one still attacking and finding fault with the EU after Brexit. I thought you’d be happy but all I see is a miserable and bitter Little Englander 👍🏻

Nothing wrong with being a Little Englander. They’re the ones who were against the empire, who believed Britain’s power should stop at it’s own borders 

[Fen Canary 822]

8 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said:

A week or so back I provided the Brexit-related statistics showing - in an entirely predictable fashion, which actually was literally predicted - just how the UK has been worse off since the referendum, but am happy to do so again:

In the three years  from the referendum the number of UK jobs created by foreign investment fell by 19 per cent.

In the same three years foreign capital investment in greenfield projects fell by 30 per cent from $120bn to $83.5bn.

In the  same three years about one in five overseas investors either cancelled or put on hold potential projects.

This analysis, based on government and other official and trade figures, is from the FT.

.

In that timeframe what has been foreign capital investment into the EU? I’d wager that’s also dropped as it has throughout the world, largely due to the Chinese slowing down their global spending.

The problem with statistics is that they can be cherry picked to tell whatever the poster wants them to tell. You make no mention of what that money was going to for instance? If it was being used for industry then yes it would be bad, if it was simply being used to inflate our property bubble in an around London then I’d argue it wouldn’t be missed. The FT has hardly been a neutral party in the whole debate, it’s as partisan as the rest of the media 

[Surfer 1,547]

3 hours ago, BigFish said:

The briefings are it is now a question of when, not if, the transition is extended even though this will require the UK to pay more contributions. There is even talk this might be for five years

Silver lining and all that.... in 5 years we'll have a GE and can officially put an end to Brexit. 

[Fen Canary 822]

49 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

😂🤣😂 Wise words, or at least they'd have a very faint chance of being had I actually said anything about a recession in my post which was almost entirely about what has already happened rather than 'predictions of economic gloom' and although you apparently have difficulty with facing reality the government's own statistics have already demonstrated that we are worse off as a result of the vote.

Of course you don't have to believe the Government, I frequently disbelieve them, but in this instance it seems highly unlikely that they would bend the figures in a way that undermines the policies they are trying to implement.

You've said several times that you wanted a reasoned debate about Brexit, which would be really interesting if it were true, but it seems as though every time a debate might get underway you retreat into this sort of nonsense. Granted you don't descend into obnoxious ranting like some of the usual suspects but it seems as though in reality you are still trying to peddle the old, long ago debunked myths and hence we are definitely going round in circles, very futile circles.

I don’t resort to obnoxious ranting, though I can see why many people do. I’ve tried to explain my reasons for voting Leave, why I’m not fond of the EU, the faults within it, the emerging markets outside it, it’s diminishing share of the world economy etc, and all I seem to get back are posters implying that I’m ignorant, stupid or downright racist. You end up repeating yourself because people answer the questions they want to answer, rather than the ones they were asked and the whole debate descends into farce. 

[PurpleCanary 5,558]

48 minutes ago, Fen Canary said:

In that timeframe what has been foreign capital investment into the EU? I’d wager that’s also dropped as it has throughout the world, largely due to the Chinese slowing down their global spending.

The problem with statistics is that they can be cherry picked to tell whatever the poster wants them to tell. You make no mention of what that money was going to for instance? If it was being used for industry then yes it would be bad, if it was simply being used to inflate our property bubble in an around London then I’d argue it wouldn’t be missed. The FT has hardly been a neutral party in the whole debate, it’s as partisan as the rest of the media 

You doubt the existence of hard data to prove the Brexit decision has already harmed the UK economy and when it is provided mount a pathetic deflection campaign. To take one simple point, this was not FT data (which I would trust if it was) - this was data from official sources, including the government.

[BigFish 1,986]

The money markets desparately need some advice from some posters on here. They are under the strange misunderstanding that the Dollar and the Euro are good reserve currencies and not the pound. Why can they not see the Eurozone is a failing corpse of a economy.Why has Sterling has lost three-quarters of a cent to $1.156, back towards the 35-year low of $1.14 set last Friday. It was worth $1.30 a month ago (meaning UK investors who held cash rather than shares have also suffered from the coronavirus). Why has sterling fallen 0.6%  against the Euro at €1.083 (just above last week’s 11-year low of around €1.053)?

 

[dylanisabaddog 4,921]

I haven't engaged with this thread before but sheer boredom has tempted me in. 

The whole world will eventually take a huge financial hammering from this crisis so it's probably pointless arguing about who has the strongest currency. The only solution is going to be a worldwide response with countries working together. Who knows, we may even persuade Amazon and Apple to pay some tax. 

[Yellow Fever 3,783]

17 minutes ago, dylanisabaddog said:

I haven't engaged with this thread before but sheer boredom has tempted me in. 

The whole world will eventually take a huge financial hammering from this crisis so it's probably pointless arguing about who has the strongest currency. The only solution is going to be a worldwide response with countries working together. Who knows, we may even persuade Amazon and Apple to pay some tax. 

In short that's is my view but the pound is toast - mixture of Brexit and our long term economic model (basically relying of foreign investment to keep us afloat). The 'virus' should make countries work together more effectively in the future - yes institutions like the EU else you can and will hang separately.

Edited March 23, 2020 by Yellow Fever

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

10 hours ago, Fen Canary said:

I don’t resort to obnoxious ranting, though I can see why many people do. I’ve tried to explain my reasons for voting Leave, why I’m not fond of the EU, the faults within it, the emerging markets outside it, it’s diminishing share of the world economy etc, and all I seem to get back are posters implying that I’m ignorant, stupid or downright racist. You end up repeating yourself because people answer the questions they want to answer, rather than the ones they were asked and the whole debate descends into farce. 

What you say about the general level on debate on here is sometimes, perhaps often, true but in this particular case you asked why people thought Brexit has already caused damage to the country and stating categorically that Brexit cannot be blamed until we had left the Customs Union.

I replied in what I thought was a very reasonable and detailed fashion about why I believed we had already been damaged and also what I believe is a (one of) gaping hole in your emerging market ideas, i.e. that you have overlooked or ignored the whole issue of trade deals being only applicable to goods (about 20% of our economy) and have nothing to replace the benefits of the single market with regards to our service sector (80% of our economy). 

Others have replied more concisely that we believe the economy has already been damaged by Brexit because the Government's own data says that even though no doubt they fervently wish it were otherwise.

We are going round in circles because you haven't then attempted to discuss. correct or contradict any of the points made but instead had a mini-rant about predictions of recession that had nothing whatsoever to do with what I'd said.

I'm certainly not calling you ignorant, stupid or racist but as I said last time, I do believe that you are recycling long debunked theories and myths, and that any real attempt to discuss or rebut what you say is met with the 'we were told there would be an immediate recession' type of response rather than any rational discussion.

[Hoola Han Solo 448]

I don’t know why some of you argue that the economy might nosedive and the country might suffer. To some Brexiteers (including some on here), the state of the U.K. economy is of no concern to them. Even with hard facts there is a double downing of ignorance and deflection. As long as we ‘got back control’, the welfare of the country is of little worry.

[dylanisabaddog 4,921]

8 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

In short that's is my view but the pound is toast - mixture of Brexit and our long term economic model (basically relying of foreign investment to keep us afloat). The 'virus' should make counties work together more effectively in the future - yes institutions like the EU else you can and will hang separately.

We are often told that we have the 5th largest economy in the world. But if it wasn't for the London based financial institutions we would be around 30th. So whether you love those institutions or hate them we are going to be absolutely stuffed if they go under. We rely on them so much more than other countries and we don't have time now to create an alternative and more balanced economy. For that reason we need our currency to stay strong and we need foreign financial investment. God help us if that doesn't happen. When a socialist like me says that you know you have a problem. 

Edited March 23, 2020 by dylanisabaddog

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

14 minutes ago, dylanisabaddog said:

We are often told that we have the 5th largest economy in the world. But if it wasn't for the London based financial institutions we would be around 30th. So whether you love those institutions or hate them we are going to be absolutely stuffed if they go under. We rely on them so much more than other countries and we don't have time now to create an alternative and more balanced economy. For that reason we need our currency to stay strong and we need foreign financial investment. God help us if that doesn't happen 

Spot on but just to add we are often told we have the 5th largest economy in the world because until relatively recently we had.

But no longer, although I rather  suspect the Tories and the Brexiteers will stick to the historic position for a good while yet, and why not - after all they did a fantastic job of blaming every single thing that went wrong on their watch on the last Labour govt for a good 8 years.

But you are absolutely right - IMO the City has always been an extremely mixed blessing and our economy (even before Brexit/virus) desperately needed rebalancing. But wrecking the City before we've made any progress whatsoever in developing other sectors will be a disaster for us all.

Edited March 23, 2020 by Creative Midfielder

[Rock The Boat 1,331]

35 minutes ago, dylanisabaddog said:

We are often told that we have the 5th largest economy in the world. But if it wasn't for the London based financial institutions we would be around 30th. So whether you love those institutions or hate them we are going to be absolutely stuffed if they go under. We rely on them so much more than other countries and we don't have time now to create an alternative and more balanced economy. For that reason we need our currency to stay strong and we need foreign financial investment. God help us if that doesn't happen. When a socialist like me says that you know you have a problem. 

A lot of our financial services is based on providing a market where buyers can meet sellers. So a corporation might float a EuroDollar bond on the London market looking for lender to buy them up. That's what the market does. But there's nothing priced in Sterling in that transaction and the sterling exchange rate has no effect on the transaction whatsoever. The banks fees are probably not priced in Sterling either. So it has next to no influence on the ability of the market to do deals. 

Having said that. I'm pretty sure the finance ministers of Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy and so on, wish they had a capability to adjust the exchange rate of their currency because the overvalued Euro is killing their economies and they have nothing but fiscal austerity to offer their citizens. Hence the high levels of unemployment in Europe, a problem we didn't have

[Surfer 1,547]

Lower Pound = More expensive food. Simple.
 

[BigFish 1,986]

50 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

Having said that. I'm pretty sure the finance ministers of Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy and so on, wish they had a capability to adjust the exchange rate of their currency because the overvalued Euro is killing their economies and they have nothing but fiscal austerity to offer their citizens. Hence the high levels of unemployment in Europe, a problem we didn't have

The Finance Ministers of those countries wouldn't have this power at all, it would be set by the markets. The likely sceanrio for those countries would be devaluation and high inflation. The Uk saw a spike of inflation after the referendum that made consumers worse off while doing little to rebalance the economy. Your point on an overvaled currency is valid though.

[Yellow Fever 3,783]

3 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

A lot of our financial services is based on providing a market where buyers can meet sellers. So a corporation might float a EuroDollar bond on the London market looking for lender to buy them up. That's what the market does. But there's nothing priced in Sterling in that transaction and the sterling exchange rate has no effect on the transaction whatsoever. The banks fees are probably not priced in Sterling either. So it has next to no influence on the ability of the market to do deals. 

Having said that. I'm pretty sure the finance ministers of Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy and so on, wish they had a capability to adjust the exchange rate of their currency because the overvalued Euro is killing their economies and they have nothing but fiscal austerity to offer their citizens. Hence the high levels of unemployment in Europe, a problem we didn't have

Don't worry RTB.

I'm sure those of us with hard currencies will help you pay your bills.

[Rock The Boat 1,331]

 

[Herman 9,763]

Looking at the people you follow online it's no wonder you are angry. 

[Rock The Boat 1,331]

1 hour ago, Herman said:

Looking at the people you follow online it's no wonder you are angry. 

Remember when your darling EU called on member states to share out the migrants between them? So how come the EU isn't now sharing out the ventilators?

 

Spoiler alert: Deutschland Uber Alles. 

[Surfer 1,547]

Meanwhile .... 

 

[Herman 9,763]

1 hour ago, Rock The Boat said:

Remember when your darling EU called on member states to share out the migrants between them? So how come the EU isn't now sharing out the ventilators?

 

Spoiler alert: Deutschland Uber Alles. 

I'm not sure where you are getting these stories from to have an opinion on them.

[Surfer 1,547]

He's just off on his anti-Germany crusade again Herman. We rumbled him a while back. 

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,187]

3 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

Remember when your darling EU called on member states to share out the migrants between them? So how come the EU isn't now sharing out the ventilators?

 

Spoiler alert: Deutschland Uber Alles. 

Are they not? 

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_476

[BigFish 1,986]

5 hours ago, How I Wrote Elastic Man said:

Are they not? 

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_476

It would be awkward if @Rock The Boat was concerned of the accuracy of his posts

[Rock The Boat 1,331]

6 hours ago, How I Wrote Elastic Man said:

Are they not? 

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_476

I think this goes into the category of Vapourware. Sorry to inform you but there is no stockpile of medical equipment. 

[Hoola Han Solo 448]

16 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

Remember when your darling EU called on member states to share out the migrants between them? So how come the EU isn't now sharing out the ventilators?

 

Spoiler alert: Deutschland Uber Alles. 

WWII was a long time ago mate. You need to move on 👍🏻

[BigFish 1,986]

2 hours ago, Hoola Han Solo said:

WWII was a long time ago mate. You need to move on 👍🏻

He hasn't got to WWII yet, still on WWI

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

22 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

Remember when your darling EU called on member states to share out the migrants between them? So how come the EU isn't now sharing out the ventilators?

Spoiler alert: Deutschland Uber Alles. 

 

8 hours ago, BigFish said:

It would be awkward if @Rock The Boat was concerned of the accuracy of his posts

Very true, and they might also have a shred more credibility if he wasn't such a rabid supporter of the very unpleasant modern English and US nationalism of the sort that he pretends to abhor in other countries (whether it exists or not).

[Van wink 2,994]

Hard for anyone to predict what the world will look like after this pandemic but my guess would be that many will be looking to turn away from globalisation with a renewed focus on local supply chains.