The Positive Brexit Thread

[Herman 9,714]

The constant Brexiter contradictions are getting on my wick. 

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

2 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Just like I said about football, there is always the long grass.

A Chinese bamboo forest probably. Impenetrable.

Now where are those pandas?

[ricardo 7,346]

3 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

A Chinese bamboo forest probably. Impenetrable.

Now where are those pandas?

I hope they are not on ventilators.

[Badger 2,405]

3 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

As every economist will tell you, you cannot have a common currency without a federal state. 

 

Simply untrue. 

[Badger 2,405]

6 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

Inorder to borrow you have to find a lender and I doubt there are many candidates putting up real money at this point in time.

The exact opposite! Some have been so desperate to obtain gilts that their yield has become negative! Rather than avoid govt bonds, they tend to be a "safe haven" in times of economic crisis.

Edited March 19, 2020 by Badger
Corrected an infantile spelling mistake!

[BigFish 1,986]

3 hours ago, Van wink said:

If that’s all it does then it’s very expensive. End of for me, bye. X

And that is just a Brexiteer fiction @Van wink, the UK contribution of £8 billion a year (net) is in macro eceonomic terms proving to be a tiny amount, when compared with the figures being bandied about dealing with the virus, and a bargain when compared with the benefits to GDP.

Economically, the EU appears to be standing up better to the Coronavirus than the UK which probably reflects the relative strengths of the economies. I am sure I am not alone in being greatly amused by how irritating this is to Leavers. Wrong again.

[Badger 2,405]

3 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

So what we are really seeing with the EU is a government which is powerless to act in an emergency.

The EU isn't a nation with a government! It us a broad confederation of countries with narrow central powers run by a commission under the supervision of the component governments through the Council of Ministers.

It does not have powers to act in circumstances outside their remit - that is because it was never the all powerful central state that you imagined it to be in the first place!

Sovereign nations have sovereign powers - the idea that these were all taken by the EU always was a myth. This is what you are observing atm, but cannot recognise it. The irony is profound!

[Surfer 1,547]

14 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

I see the Chinese are stepping into the vacuum created by the German failure to lead on a European level and are supplying equipment to smaller European countries. Of course, the Chinese will want something in return later and the collapse of the EU, which is already underway, won't be far off.

Well China’s ability to help is driven by three things. They have the capacity to produce medical products because so called free market capitalists drove production to the lowest cost producer while gutting their own domestic capacities, plus China has as least for now solved their coronavirus issue and so has excess supplies available, plus China is not shy to exploit the short term PR win and longer term economic and strategic influence of sending “free” support. 
 

The US used to play this strategic game too. No more as RWNJs kept on hacking away at their own country’s economic and industrial base. So here we are; I am left to hope that some medical procedures or drugs can assist those who will recover to do so faster and so mitigate the ventilator shortages that will inevitably come.

p.s The town in Italy where the first cases were confirmed reported zero new cases yesterday, China I think said no new domestic cases, all new cases from people coming back to China. 

Edited March 19, 2020 by Surfer

[Surfer 1,547]

p.s The President is currently touting drinking Gin and Tonic (well the commercial drug variant of quinine) as a prescription to alleviate the symptoms of coronavirus - I.e what I referred to above re shortening the recovery period. 
 

The thing is he’s claiming to have cut red tape to get it approved, but it is already approved as a prescription drug so again it seems he’s talking complete BS again.  
 

Just say “ we have found existing medicine that can help and so we have engage with the manufacturer to maximize their production” 

Would take one minute to say that, not twenty minutes of lies about what only he could do. 

0h and stop saying it’s China’s fault and no one could have foreseen this might happen. 

Edited March 19, 2020 by Surfer

[Surfer 1,547]

p.s. and now the head of the FSA says that the drug referred to is already approved for other illnesses but not this one. And more trials are needed before it could. 

Just a complete CF....

[Surfer 1,547]

P.s one positive thing. Congress waived the liability for 3M and others so 35million masks peR month created for construction industry can be released for hospital use. So that is a real plus and should be acknowledged. 

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

1 hour ago, Badger said:

The exact opposite! Some have been so desperate to obtain gilts that there yield has become negative! Rather than avoid govt bonds, they tend to be a "safe haven" in times of economic crisis.

As an aside Badger but along the same lines, as my company is cash heavy and profitable selling overseas and in Asia particularly people are hurling money at us. They've nowhere else to invest it 😀

I doubt I'm alone!

 

[Surfer 1,547]

P.s. Press conference now in full meltdown, the President attacking the Press and the Chinese as he says simultaneously it could have been easily stopped (by the Chinese) and nobody could have foreseen this situation, yet the US was totally prepared, and it’s all up to the State governments to address the additional medical supply purchases.... not me, not us ***** ! 

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

16 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

Do you think the ECB has really got 700Bn stashed away somewhere for a situation like this?

 

6 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

Inorder to borrow you have to find a lender and I doubt there are many candidates putting up real money at this point in time. Indeed, one of the prime lenders in normal times would be Germany with their massive trade surpluses. But they are going to be one of the main beneficiaries of the ECB loans.

 

6 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

As every economist will tell you, you cannot have a common currency without a federal state. 

This is the foundation of sand upon which the EU is built. 

Anybody else getting the feeling that economics isn't exactly @Rock The Boat's strong suit??  🤣😂🤣

[A Load of Squit 5,128]

14 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

 

 

Anybody else getting the feeling that economics isn't exactly @Rock The Boat's strong suit??  🤣😂🤣

Rock The Boat

Posted March 10

Well I'm getting back into the stock market today. Looking at China, the epidemic has stabilised after a two-month period and the danger is against the elderly and not the work force. So while it may look bad now, everything is in place for China to pick up from where it left off and get those supply chains working again. We are behind the Chinese curve but no reason to see why the pattern in the rest of the world will be significantly different from the Chinese experience. Perhaps not in Africa but that has little impact on  the world economy.  No doubt there will be recurring waves of illness over the rest of the year but I think the stock market has discounted this in its current levels. With sold blue-chip companies down 20-33% there has never been a better time to pile back in and watch the markets rise over the next twelve months.

 

I wouldn't be taking any stock tips from him either. 😀

[Badger 2,405]

2 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

As an aside Badger but along the same lines, as my company is cash heavy and profitable selling overseas and in Asia particularly people are hurling money at us. They've nowhere else to invest it 😀

I doubt I'm alone!

 

My money is all tied up in shares that have dived in value! I wish I had put more of it into gilts and your company by the sound of it! 😀 Not much I can do now except to wait for it to rise again, which I imagine it will - its just that I've lost all liquidity now (I can't bear to sell at a big loss). As an asthmatic though, I have bigger worries atm! 

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

16 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

I see the Chinese are stepping into the vacuum created by the German failure to lead on a European level and are supplying equipment to smaller European countries. Of course, the Chinese will want something in return later and the collapse of the EU, which is already underway, won't be far off. 

If you have watching world events for the last few years instead of simply staring down a very narrow Brexit funnel you would have seen China stepping in to fill vacuums all over the place, primarily vacuums left by the US abdication of leadership across the world but to much lesser extent those caused by the UK's ever declining influence.

China is inevitably going to overtake the US as the world's leading economic power in the next few years so they don't need to concern themselves too much about that, it will just happen. But it is clear that China also wants take over the leadership role that the US has vacated and has had a long term strategy, which is going along quite nicely, to extend the reach of their  'soft' power to match their economic clout.

So to some extent you are correct that China's aim is not pure philanthropy, but I think you are quite wrong in assuming they are seeking to break up the EU - letting the EU and individual countries struggle would appear to be a fruitful strategy if that was their aim. IMO they have one or possibly two motivations:

• Possibly they want to help in order to counter the accusations from some quarters that the outbreak was their 'fault' and perhaps also highlight their success in combating the virus relative to the rather poor performance of the supposedly high tech, sophisticated west.
• I think their more significant aim is simply to cement the divide which has already opened up between the US and the EU - China plans and works long term and a slow change in relations whereby the EU drifts away from the US orbit and towards a closer relationship with China suits them down to the ground.

[BigFish 1,986]

2 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

If you have watching world events for the last few years instead of simply staring down a very narrow Brexit funnel you would have seen China stepping in to fill vacuums all over the place, primarily vacuums left by the US abdication of leadership across the world but to much lesser extent those caused by the UK's ever declining influence.

China is inevitably going to overtake the US as the world's leading economic power in the next few years so they don't need to concern themselves too much about that, it will just happen. But it is clear that China also wants take over the leadership role that the US has vacated and has had a long term strategy, which is going along quite nicely, to extend the reach of their  'soft' power to match their economic clout.

So to some extent you are correct that China's aim is not pure philanthropy, but I think you are quite wrong in assuming they are seeking to break up the EU - letting the EU and individual countries struggle would appear to be a fruitful strategy if that was their aim. IMO they have one or possibly two motivations:

• Possibly they want to help in order to counter the accusations from some quarters that the outbreak was their 'fault' and perhaps also highlight their success in combating the virus relative to the rather poor performance of the supposedly high tech, sophisticated west.
• I think their more significant aim is simply to cement the divide which has already opened up between the US and the EU - China plans and works long term and a slow change in relations whereby the EU drifts away from the US orbit and towards a closer relationship with China suits them down to the ground.

Brexit only makes sense if the EU collapses in chaos. Instead the Leave vote in the UK and the virus has made the EU look stronger than ever. It is driving the Brexiteers mad and to denial. UK on the other hand is looking in a sorry state.

[Rock The Boat 1,325]

2 hours ago, BigFish said:

Brexit only makes sense if the EU collapses in chaos. Instead the Leave vote in the UK and the virus has made the EU look stronger than ever. It is driving the Brexiteers mad and to denial. UK on the other hand is looking in a sorry state.

So you will be able to list all the measures that the EU have put in place to counter this pandemic that makes them look stronger?

[Surfer 1,547]

3 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

So you will be able to list all the measures that the EU have put in place to counter this pandemic that makes them look stronger?

No need. Look at Sterling v Dollar v Euro relative valuations over the past couple of weeks. 

The markets are quite able to work out who is stronger v weaker, and the UK is bottom dog. 

[Rock The Boat 1,325]

6 hours ago, A Load of Squit said:

Rock The Boat

Posted March 10

Well I'm getting back into the stock market today. Looking at China, the epidemic has stabilised after a two-month period and the danger is against the elderly and not the work force. So while it may look bad now, everything is in place for China to pick up from where it left off and get those supply chains working again. We are behind the Chinese curve but no reason to see why the pattern in the rest of the world will be significantly different from the Chinese experience. Perhaps not in Africa but that has little impact on  the world economy.  No doubt there will be recurring waves of illness over the rest of the year but I think the stock market has discounted this in its current levels. With sold blue-chip companies down 20-33% there has never been a better time to pile back in and watch the markets rise over the next twelve months.

 

I wouldn't be taking any stock tips from him either. 😀

Bookmark your post because I will be more than happy to revisit this in twelve months from now.

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

7 hours ago, Surfer said:

No need. Look at Sterling v Dollar v Euro relative valuations over the past couple of weeks. 

The markets are quite able to work out who is stronger v weaker, and the UK is bottom dog. 

Exactly this, and you can add Yen into the list as well.

Stock markets will eventually recover everywhere (to a greater or lesser extent) but as Surfer says these are relative valuations and essentially the markets' judgement on the relative strength of the economies.

[Badger 2,405]

8 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

Bookmark your post because I will be more than happy to revisit this in twelve months from now.

Nobody is denying that the market will recover (I hope 😔), I think LOS's point was that you said that you were "getting back into the market today." The market fell by about 900 (approximately 15%) by March 18th.

I think the point is that you were rather premature in your advice, rather than prescient.

Not that I did any better - I decided to simply ride it out

[ricardo 7,346]

11 minutes ago, Badger said:

Nobody is denying that the market will recover (I hope 😔), I think LOS's point was that you said that you were "getting back into the market today." The market fell by about 900 (approximately 15%) by March 18th.

I think the point is that you were rather premature in your advice, rather than prescient.

Not that I did any better - I decided to simply ride it out

I doubt you are alone, most people were in denial. They are the same people complaining about empty shelves.

[Rock The Boat 1,325]

1 hour ago, Badger said:

Nobody is denying that the market will recover (I hope 😔), I think LOS's point was that you said that you were "getting back into the market today." The market fell by about 900 (approximately 15%) by March 18th.

I think the point is that you were rather premature in your advice, rather than prescient.

Not that I did any better - I decided to simply ride it out

Very few investors will call the exact bottom of the market not the top for that matter. But the canny investor doesn't sell when the market is plunging nor buy when it is peaking. 

But riding it out is the correct thing to do at the moment because share holding requires a long term strategy. If you're looking for the moment of rebound then watch out for announcements on vaccine trials. 

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

16 hours ago, Badger said:

My money is all tied up in shares that have dived in value! I wish I had put more of it into gilts and your company by the sound of it! 😀 Not much I can do now except to wait for it to rise again, which I imagine it will - its just that I've lost all liquidity now (I can't bear to sell at a big loss). As an asthmatic though, I have bigger worries atm! 

Nobody knows what will really happen but it's noticeable the amount of investors contacting us - cold - has increased dramatically recently. Lots of cash looking for (any) return (and I worry about more QE  as yesterday).

I truly think the UK economy is built on sand (financial services and easy money) and when any of these 'earthquakes' occurs it always liquifies and everything sinks. Really should be a wake up call.

[Rock The Boat 1,325]

12 hours ago, Surfer said:

No need. Look at Sterling v Dollar v Euro relative valuations over the past couple of weeks. 

The markets are quite able to work out who is stronger v weaker, and the UK is bottom dog. 

So we can agree the EU has done nothing in support of the people suffering from the Wuhan virus. Which isn't surprising because in difficult times people want to turn to their country for help because that's where like-minded folks live and where the natural bond lies. We all want to look to kith and kin for support in these trying times. Which exposes the EU for the toothless behemoth that it really is. 

On a positive note, I get the feeling that the UK experts truly have the best interests of the people at heart and I have the utmost confidence in their abilities. 

[Herman 9,714]

Nasty and unnecessarily divisive. Is it the proof that EU member states are and have been independent and sovereign all along the thing that upsets you?

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

32 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

So we can agree the EU has done nothing in support of the people suffering from the Wuhan virus. Which isn't surprising because in difficult times people want to turn to their country for help because that's where like-minded folks live and where the natural bond lies. We all want to look to kith and kin for support in these trying times. Which exposes the EU for the toothless behemoth that it really is. 

On a positive note, I get the feeling that the UK experts truly have the best interests of the people at heart and I have the utmost confidence in their abilities. 

I think what we might agree (although probably not with Brexiteers like yourself) is that the EU has never had any responsibility for the healthcare of its citizens, that always has been the province of national governments, and its interesting to see how the bullying, controlling superstate has rather dramatically morphed into 'the toothless behemoth that it really is'. Perhaps all the national governments exercising the national sovereignity that you foolishly believed they'd lost might have helped a little 🤣

Believe what you like re the UK experts, although I'm not too clear who you mean. I presume the English experts as the Welsh and Scots seem to have other ideas.

I didn't think you normally paid much attention to 'experts', or facts for that matter and unfortunately at this stage the facts/numbers (viz no of deaths) don't justify your faith in these particular experts.

[Badger 2,405]

5 hours ago, ricardo said:

I doubt you are alone, most people were in denial.

I don't think that it was being in denial, I had become "more defensively positioned," but rather the problem of timing - the danger of trying to "time the market" is that you have to time it perfectly "getting out" and perfectly "getting back in" again. Get either wrong and you can end up worse off than "riding it out." You also benefit from dividends which will buy more shares when they are low, assuming that you automatically reinvest. (Well I hope so anyway 😁)

Bottom line is that there are far cleverer people than who me, who know far more about it who suggest that "time in the market" is safer than trying timing the market. Who knows for sure - my guess is that the market will recover - if it doesn't we are all screwed anyway.