The Positive Brexit Thread

[paul moy 235]

5 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

In theory it could if all the component suppliers manufacture in Britain. WTO tariffs on components wouldn't be a problem either if that was the case.

In practice however none of the major car manufacturers operate this way. They all have massive supply chains which are extremely cost competitive and often specialised in niche areas. There is absolutely no way companies like Nissan, BMW etc are ever going to source all their components from the UK so JIT in car assembly will not happen in a WTO UK. Of course we're now also back to having a tariff problem as well - which is why it won't happen, would be commercial suicide for any of the major manufacturers to even attempt it.

  

Those component manufacturers need not be in the UK or EU so no need necessarily for tariffs in that case. 

[SwindonCanary 455]

55 minutes ago, BigFish said:

@SwindonCanary seems to have forgotten the last time Johnson negotiated with the EU. He really showed them by giving them Northern Ireland on a plate. Still he told them it was an excellent deal achieved only by his masterstroke of reopening the Withdrawal Agreement. So it must be true.

Do you really want us to fail ?

[Herman 9,756]

1 hour ago, BigFish said:

@SwindonCanary seems to have forgotten the last time Johnson negotiated with the EU. He really showed them by giving them Northern Ireland on a plate. Still he told them it was an excellent deal achieved only by his masterstroke of reopening the Withdrawal Agreement. So it must be true.

Why is it that the people that didn't want Brexit are the only ones keeping an eye on the details?? Not even the minutiae but the basic level details.

[paul moy 235]

7 minutes ago, Herman said:

Why is it that the people that didn't want Brexit are the only ones keeping an eye on the details?? Not even the minutiae but the basic level details.

To you 'detail' = all negative aspects that you can think of and ignoring all positive aspects.  You remoaners are indeed very sad pessimistic people who cannot see or grasp opportunities.

Brexiteers see the complete picture, positives and negatives, but the positives far outweigh any negatives because we are now an independent nation free of EU shackles and bullying, and about to embark on glorious worldwide trade, free to recover our national respect and self-confidence with a true leader in touch with the national  mood in the mold of Thatcher and Churchill.  Boris is a real conviction politician IMO that could end up being our longest serving Prime Minister ever. 

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,187]

6 minutes ago, paul moy said:

To you 'detail' = all negative aspects that you can think of and ignoring all positive aspects.  You remoaners are indeed very sad pessimistic people who cannot see or grasp opportunities.

Brexiteers see the complete picture, positives and negatives, but the positives far outweigh any negatives because we are now an independent nation free of EU shackles and bullying, and about to embark on glorious worldwide trade, free to recover our national respect and self-confidence with a true leader in touch with the national  mood in the mold of Thatcher and Churchill.  Boris is a real conviction politician IMO that could end up being our longest serving Prime Minister ever. 

Personally, as someone who voted remain, I hope Brexit is a great success 

Out of interest, what negatives do you see?

[Herman 9,756]

"Boris is a real conviction politician..."

🤣🤣🤣

I can't believe someone wrote that in all seriousness.

 

[Jools 584]

59 minutes ago, Herman said:

Why is it that the people that didn't want Brexit are the only ones keeping an eye on the details?? Not even the minutiae but the basic level details.

😀 The only detail you're interested in is what's best for the EU, you old 🔔🔚

[Jools 584]

 

 

 

 

38 minutes ago, How I Wrote Elastic Man said:

Personally, as someone who voted remain, I hope Brexit is a great success

Respect 👍

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

3 hours ago, paul moy said:

He has a clear vision and that includes not being aligned or tied to EU regs as an independent trading nation. The EU have to take this on board or we go to WTO.  A free trade deal is a reciprocal arrangement between equals and if the EU does not treat us as an equal then so be it, there will be no free trade deal.  Boris is clear on this and as a sovereign nation again that is what we deserve. Respect has to be two ways or it is WTO. 

More ill-informed nonsense from Paul Moy.

Free trade deals are very frequently made between countries which are not in any sense equal - that doesn't mean that they can't be mutually beneficial but it normally works out that the bigger state (economically) has more bargaining power and they get the most advantage from the deal.

And of course the EU isn't going to treat us as equals, for the very simple reason that the UK on its own is in no way the equal of the EU. The US will take exactly the same approach as the Trump administration has made very clear - they are very keen for a deal but it will be on their terms. China would certainly also take the same approach if we wanted to strike a deal with them, and TBH even India will nowadays regard themselves as the major rather than the minor partner when dealing with the UK.

If you want to look at a country to negotiate with as an equal then that would be perhaps Brazil, so here we have another problem. Brazil is a part of the Mercosur Common Market which creates a free trade area/customs union amongst South American countries. Historically they seem to have concentrated primarily on developing their own free trade area although they have struck a few FTAs over the years. But in the last couple of years they have been working on a very wide ranging free trade agreement with the EU (which I think is now agreed but not yet ratified). So we won't be negotiating with Brazil, we'll be negotiating with Mercosur and we will be the minor partner.

So its not just Europe, all over the world countries are moving into alliances (economic and others) with their like-minded neighbours to form blocs which are big enough and powerful enough for the big boys to take them seriously, if not quite as equals. But the UK, in its arrogance and stupidity, thinks it can buck this trend (reality is probably a better description) and be treated as an equal by the US, EU etc. The next few months are going to be a very chastening experience as our stupidity and arrogance (and lies) run headlong into harsh reality.

[Daz Sparks 1,152]

2 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

More ill-informed nonsense from Paul Moy.

Free trade deals are very frequently made between countries which are not in any sense equal - that doesn't mean that they can't be mutually beneficial but it normally works out that the bigger state (economically) has more bargaining power and they get the most advantage from the deal.

And of course the EU isn't going to treat us as equals, for the very simple reason that the UK on its own is in no way the equal of the EU. The US will take exactly the same approach as the Trump administration has made very clear - they are very keen for a deal but it will be on their terms. China would certainly also take the same approach if we wanted to strike a deal with them, and TBH even India will nowadays regard themselves as the major rather than the minor partner when dealing with the UK.

If you want to look at a country to negotiate with as an equal then that would be perhaps Brazil, so here we have another problem. Brazil is a part of the Mercosur Common Market which creates a free trade area/customs union amongst South American countries. Historically they seem to have concentrated primarily on developing their own free trade area although they have struck a few FTAs over the years. But in the last couple of years they have been working on a very wide ranging free trade agreement with the EU (which I think is now agreed but not yet ratified). So we won't be negotiating with Brazil, we'll be negotiating with Mercosur and we will be the minor partner.

So its not just Europe, all over the world countries are moving into alliances (economic and others) with their like-minded neighbours to form blocs which are big enough and powerful enough for the big boys to take them seriously, if not quite as equals. But the UK, in its arrogance and stupidity, thinks it can buck this trend (reality is probably a better description) and be treated as an equal by the US, EU etc. The next few months are going to be a very chastening experience as our stupidity and arrogance (and lies) run headlong into harsh reality.

If only we could strike up some kind of arrangement with some nearby countries and form a trading bloc to strengthen our bargaining power...

[Herman 9,756]

Watch with the sound off. This oaf is head of Great Britain.

 

[paul moy 235]

1 hour ago, How I Wrote Elastic Man said:

Personally, as someone who voted remain, I hope Brexit is a great success 

Out of interest, what negatives do you see?

Not many at all.   The main negative will be the reaction of the EU which will see us as a major competitor and could try to throw spanners into our works as we go to WTO which I believe is inevitable as the EU do not want us to be seen to be successful as others will want to leave their club. 

This was all predictable though before we left so no real surprises if this happens.

The French in particular will get nasty over fishing but it is our right to retrieve our waters. We see friction today around Guernsey who gain back their waters today with the French issuing threats. 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1237025/fishing-UK-france-boats-war

 

Edited February 3, 2020 by paul moy

[paul moy 235]

37 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

More ill-informed nonsense from Paul Moy.

Free trade deals are very frequently made between countries which are not in any sense equal - that doesn't mean that they can't be mutually beneficial but it normally works out that the bigger state (economically) has more bargaining power and they get the most advantage from the deal.

And of course the EU isn't going to treat us as equals, for the very simple reason that the UK on its own is in no way the equal of the EU. The US will take exactly the same approach as the Trump administration has made very clear - they are very keen for a deal but it will be on their terms. China would certainly also take the same approach if we wanted to strike a deal with them, and TBH even India will nowadays regard themselves as the major rather than the minor partner when dealing with the UK.

If you want to look at a country to negotiate with as an equal then that would be perhaps Brazil, so here we have another problem. Brazil is a part of the Mercosur Common Market which creates a free trade area/customs union amongst South American countries. Historically they seem to have concentrated primarily on developing their own free trade area although they have struck a few FTAs over the years. But in the last couple of years they have been working on a very wide ranging free trade agreement with the EU (which I think is now agreed but not yet ratified). So we won't be negotiating with Brazil, we'll be negotiating with Mercosur and we will be the minor partner.

So its not just Europe, all over the world countries are moving into alliances (economic and others) with their like-minded neighbours to form blocs which are big enough and powerful enough for the big boys to take them seriously, if not quite as equals. But the UK, in its arrogance and stupidity, thinks it can buck this trend (reality is probably a better description) and be treated as an equal by the US, EU etc. The next few months are going to be a very chastening experience as our stupidity and arrogance (and lies) run headlong into harsh reality.

Exactly why the EU won't get a free trade deal with us.  No Deal is better than a Bad Deal....... LOL

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

2 minutes ago, paul moy said:

Exactly why the EU won't get a free trade deal with us.  No Deal is better than a Bad Deal....... LOL

I'd be inclined to agree with you there except for the fact that when it comes to a deal with the US, idiots like you are going to happily lap up a very bad deal.

But since you are so clueless that you rely on the Daily Express to tell you which are the good deals and which are the bad deals (as well as a lot of comforting lies about what WTO rules mean) then it's not so surprising.

[Surfer 1,547]

3 hours ago, paul moy said:

Those component manufacturers need not be in the UK or EU so no need necessarily for tariffs in that case. 

Indeed, and neither will the jobs involved in creating those components either then. 

Or had that point not occurred to you? Or don't you care about the future of the components industry - for cars, or for aircraft?

 

[Jools 584]

 

 

 

 

12 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

I'd be inclined to agree with you there except for the fact that when it comes to a deal with the US, idiots like you are going to happily lap up a very bad deal.

Why do you assume a deal with the US with Trumpski as President is going to be very bad?

Have you forgotten that Trumpski and Mr. Brexit get along very well and that the former owes the latter a favour or three? 

 

🤠😎🇺🇸🇬🇧

[Icecream Snow 761]

3 hours ago, BigFish said:

@SwindonCanary seems to have forgotten the last time Johnson negotiated with the EU. He really showed them by giving them Northern Ireland on a plate. Still he told them it was an excellent deal achieved only by his masterstroke of reopening the Withdrawal Agreement. So it must be true.

I believe the argument was that the EU and Theresa May had initially come to an agreement quite quickly, but that it involved treating Northern Ireland separately, and May eventually realised that the DUP would never support it. Hence Olly Robbins negotiated the backstop concept, the insurance policy that would be triggered if a free trade agreement couldn't be reached.

...and Boris demonised the backstop and went back to the initial deal, after nine months worth of extensions.

[Yellow Fever 3,780]

8 minutes ago, Icecream Snow said:

I believe the argument was that the EU and Theresa May had initially come to an agreement quite quickly, but that it involved treating Northern Ireland separately, and May eventually realised that the DUP would never support it. Hence Olly Robbins negotiated the backstop concept, the insurance policy that would be triggered if a free trade agreement couldn't be reached.

...and Boris demonised the backstop and went back to the initial deal, after nine months worth of extensions.

I thought the deal was one that May said no British PM could ever accept. Internal UK borders. Amazing what Johnson can get away with.

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

3 hours ago, paul moy said:

Those component manufacturers need not be in the UK or EU so no need necessarily for tariffs in that case. 

🤣 You actually don't understand any of this at all do you???   🤣

I think you should invest in a copy of 'WTO Rules for Dummies', will look good on your bookshelf alongside your 'Banking for Dummies' and 'IT for Dummies'.

[Icecream Snow 761]

3 hours ago, paul moy said:

Those component manufacturers need not be in the UK or EU so no need necessarily for tariffs in that case. 

If the component manufacturers aren't in the UK or the EU, why wouldn't you just import the whole car instead? Japan already has a zero tariffs on car imports into the EU under the new deal.

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

25 minutes ago, Jools said:

Why do you assume a deal with the US with Trumpski as President is going to be very bad?

Have you forgotten that Trumpski and Mr. Brexit get along very well and that the former owes the latter a favour or three?

I assume that both are purely rhetorical questions 🤣🤣

[Jools 584]

2 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

I assume that both are purely rhetorical questions 🤣🤣

{canned laughter}

[paul moy 235]

1 hour ago, Surfer said:

Indeed, and neither will the jobs involved in creating those components either then. 

Or had that point not occurred to you? Or don't you care about the future of the components industry - for cars, or for aircraft?

 

The point is that many components do not already come from the EU.

[paul moy 235]

2 hours ago, Daz Sparks said:

If only we could strike up some kind of arrangement with some nearby countries and form a trading bloc to strengthen our bargaining power...

Not at the cost that the corrupt and dying EU extracts from us for a major trade deficit. Ridiculously expensive and restrictive.

[paul moy 235]

1 hour ago, Icecream Snow said:

If the component manufacturers aren't in the UK or the EU, why wouldn't you just import the whole car instead? Japan already has a zero tariffs on car imports into the EU under the new deal.

They still have to be constructed somewhere, and the cheapest place is probably where most are sold..... ie: the UK

[Rock The Boat 1,330]

6 hours ago, paul moy said:

At last we have a proactive government with a proper vision, believing in the UK and making its demands clear to the EU from the outset.  I wonder if Farage has had a hand in this...............  🤔

What a breath of fresh air this new government is........ looking after the interests of UK PLC  !!!

 

It's a shame that Bill got himself banned as we would be having a good old laugh about his 'Brexit will never happen nonsense.Though I'm sure he still pops in to check out what's being said. So 'Up Yours, City 1st'

 

So on the old Brexit thread when Boris came to power I explained to those who cared to listen how Johnson would play his hand and it turns out that I called it exactly spot on. Since that thread is no longer here I will do a quick recap. Boris, I said favours to negotiate from a no-deal stance but is handicapped by the stupid deal that Theresa May had negotiated with the EU. I said he would go back and re-negotiate the worst elements (at which point the Pinkun remainers all laughed and said the EU would never re-negotiate - they did). I then said this new deal would really be used as a feint in a flanking move to draw the heat while at the same time Boris would be preparing for no deal - which he did.  So he is then in a position to negotiate on two fronts. If the EU capitulates on our demands then we have a quick and easy deal via the flanking move. As this is most unlikely, then we push forward on the no-deal, only we don't call it the no-deal we call it Canada++++ or Australia+++++ and break it down sectorally if necessary. I said it will take years to resolve because not everything will be in a take-it-or-leave-it approach, but it will be rolled out piecemeal as stuff gets agreed. 

Listening to Government opening statements and reading the Government's approach to negotiations I was spot on in my predictions. Its almost as if I had inside knowledge.

[SwindonCanary 455]

 

[SwindonCanary 455]

14 hours ago, BigFish said:

@SwindonCanary seems to have forgotten the last time Johnson negotiated with the EU. He really showed them by giving them Northern Ireland on a plate. Still he told them it was an excellent deal achieved only by his masterstroke of reopening the Withdrawal Agreement. So it must be true.

Don't you know that Boris was left with a short amount of time ,and following after May's attempt, he was pushed into a corner and came out of it with a victory Well done Boris 🙂

Edited February 4, 2020 by SwindonCanary
add an R

[Rock The Boat 1,330]

2 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

I'd be inclined to agree with you there except for the fact that when it comes to a deal with the US, idiots like you are going to happily lap up a very bad deal.

But since you are so clueless that you rely on the Daily Express to tell you which are the good deals and which are the bad deals (as well as a lot of comforting lies about what WTO rules mean) then it's not so surprising.

You are incredibly thick, CM

We will get a great deal because it is in Americas interests to have a strong UK in Europe to act as a political counter-weight to the EU. I'll let you use your two brain cells to work out why that might be.

And BTW, this only applies if the Republicans are in office, the Democrats are not our friends so we have get this over the line before November

[Surfer 1,547]

44 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

You are incredibly thick, CM

We will get a great deal because it is in Americas interests to have a strong UK in Europe to act as a political counter-weight to the EU. I'll let you use your two brain cells to work out why that might be.

And BTW, this only applies if the Republicans are in office, the Democrats are not our friends so we have get this over the line before November

More like it is in this American President's interests to have a subservient UK off the coast of Europe.

Just like Iraq in the Middle East. See fixed it for you. Boris and Dominic might be OK with that if course. 

The Democrats are not our friends? Why are they Russians or something? And for your information the Democrats would have to agree to pass any FTA legislation in the House - which they control - so you can forget anything happening before Jan 17 2021 if Democrats do not agree.... and that assumes Republicans get  the House back; unless of course the "Imperial Presidency" says he can do anything he wants, despite what Congress says, so shove it.

 

 

Edited February 4, 2020 by Surfer