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The Positive Brexit Thread

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1 hour ago, PurpleCanary said:

I think the chances of someone vetoing have increased. After all, there is no more the EU can offer that would make a difference, and there is no guarantee an election would change the parliamentary arithmetic enough to make a very different kind of deal - the UK staying in a CU for example - feasible. If it came to it, between those three current options, a guess would be this deal. Between No-Deal and Revoke, Revoke.

“I think the chances of someone vetoing have increased”

So do I. This feels like the end of the road, one way or another. I suspect Macron May well have had an oeff.

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35 minutes ago, Herman said:

So a change of name, from May to Johnson, on the front page of this deal is all it is. Will people fall for it?? 

What happened to the amendment that required the May deal to come back to the House? It got passed, by accident as I recall .

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13 minutes ago, Bill said:

not neccesarily simply down to a hung parliament as May's deals were rejected by government MPs

Ok simply not down to a hung parliment but I'd argue that it makes action harder as its suspectible to many more people/parties influencing the decisions and an increase of disgruntled people with the power to excercise their own individual power. Your own MPs voting against you being one of them.

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1 minute ago, Van wink said:

Does the Ben Act require a letter to be sent if a deal has been agreed? Has a deal been agreed?

It has to be sent if any deal has been rejected by Parliament.

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4 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Does the Ben Act require a letter to be sent if a deal has been agreed? Has a deal been agreed?

yes, it happened yesterday

today is Sunday

and the A11 is still a single carriageway

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7 minutes ago, KiwiScot said:

Ok simply not down to a hung parliment but I'd argue that it makes action harder as its suspectible to many more people/parties influencing the decisions and an increase of disgruntled people with the power to excercise their own individual power. Your own MPs voting against you being one of them.

MPs cannot vote against you as they are NOT mandated

and is that (highlighted) such a bad thing ?

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I see the govt are spinning for Saturday to try to make it an either/or and no amendments. Little to zero chance of that. 

When in hole stop digging.

I think they are doomed.

DUP won't vote for it - and ergo nor will the ERG which take their lead from the DUP.

I wonder if Corbyn is thinking about new curtains yet?

Edited by Yellow Fever
Yup - that fox has been shot.

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4 minutes ago, Hairy Canary said:

Interesting.

not really, Remain will simply amend that motion

 

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27 minutes ago, Van wink said:

I think the chances of someone vetoing have increased. After all, there is no more the EU can offer that would make a difference, and there is no guarantee an election would change the parliamentary arithmetic enough to make a very different kind of deal - the UK staying in a CU for example - feasible. If it came to it, between those three current options, a guess would be this deal. Between No-Deal and Revoke, Revoke.

“I think the chances of someone vetoing have increased”

So do I. This feels like the end of the road, one way or another. I suspect Macron May well have had an oeff.

Increased but not necessarily probable. If this deal gets voted down by MPs then today's events will have done nothing to change the default position, which is that sooner or later  the UK will leave the EU, even if an extension is granted, or even a whole string of them, unless MPs vote for an alternative, whether that is Revoking Article 50 or accepting a deal the EU has already agreed or one it is willing to agree to.

There could be a majority for Revoke (I think there would) with this set of MPs if that was set against solely No-Deal, but until now the anti-No-Deal vote has been split between those wanting to Remain and those wanting a deal, because that latter option has never been closed off.

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Just now, Hairy Canary said:

What motion?

Boris is simply trying to 'close off' other options. However he has no power so to do and does not control the EU (and in any event an extension would be needed to pass the so called deal) or as is now obvious the HoP.  It's all bluster.

The EU want a deal - and I see no problem with an extension to them (already nodded too), providing we had some definitive plan to resolve the issue. That's likely to be a ref.

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13 minutes ago, Hairy Canary said:

What motion?

really ?

just as I said earlier

The government has lost the first vote on the Saturday sitting. Sir Oliver Letwin’s amendment (see 1.29pm) was passed by 287 votes to 275 - a majority of 12.

Explaining his amendment in the debate Letwin said this would allow the government motion on Saturday to be amended. He implied it would allow MPs to insist on Boris Johnson requesting an extension anyway, and only withdrawing that request when the legislation for his deal has passed."

do you not know what Saturday is about, or what procedure it involves ?

something that over rules the stick insect's earlier squeak

'Rees-Mogg said MPs would then vote either on a motion to back the deal, or on one to approve no deal. He explained:   The debate that follows will be a motion to either approve a deal or to approve a no-deal exit.'

Edited by Bill

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1 minute ago, Yellow Fever said:

Boris is simply trying to 'close off' other options. However he has no power so to do and does not control the EU (and in any event an extension would be needed to pass the so called deal) or as is now obvious the HoP.  It's all bluster.

The EU want a deal - and I see no problem with an extension to them (already nodded too), providing we had some definitive plan to resolve the issue. That's likely to be a ref.

Yes I can agree with that. He can only request that they do not grant the extension he will have to ask them for. I'm assuming on the grounds that he will state that there is no chance of anything changing to resolve the issue.

The is no way the EU will be wanting to revisit the agreement again so a confirmatory referendum would be one reason for them to agree to an extension.  

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1 minute ago, Hairy Canary said:

Yes I can agree with that. He can only request that they do not grant the extension he will have to ask them for. I'm assuming on the grounds that he will state that there is no chance of anything changing to resolve the issue.

The is no way the EU will be wanting to revisit the agreement again so a confirmatory referendum would be one reason for them to agree to an extension.  

Actually - I don't think they mind revisiting but probably not with the current 'ERG loons' in charge. A busted flush. If we came back with a CU or SM, EFTA then no problems. However I think we are heading on Saturday for 2nd ref - May's old deal with likely CU political statement vs Remain. May has the last laugh.

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So Junker rules out extension, now then, game on and minds focussed.

Edited by Van wink
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5 minutes ago, Bill said:

really ?

just as I said earlier

The government has lost the first vote on the Saturday sitting. Sir Oliver Letwin’s amendment (see 1.29pm) was passed by 287 votes to 275 - a majority of 12.

Explaining his amendment in the debate Letwin said this would allow the government motion on Saturday to be amended. He implied it would allow MPs to insist on Boris Johnson requesting an extension anyway, and only withdrawing that request when the legislation for his deal has passed."

do you not know what Saturday is about, or what procedure it involves ?

 

Yes I accept that.

Kuenssberg's tweet suggested that Johnson will submit the letter as instructed but will ASK the EU not to agree to the extension as that will force Parliament to decide between no deal and his deal.

 

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2 minutes ago, Hairy Canary said:

Yes I accept that.

Kuenssberg's tweet suggested that Johnson will submit the letter as instructed but will ASK the EU not to agree to the extension as that will force Parliament to decide between no deal and his deal.

 

Junker just seemed to rule out an extension. I think they have had an oeff

Edited by Van wink

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To help flog tickets to hear Dim Martin speaking to a bunch of senile bigots,  the Brexit Company put up a link to a supposed Dim Marin account

But they seemed to forget that Martin isn't a fan of social media, and has no Twitter presence. Instead, they tagged a user with the handle @GroovyTimbo, whose profile reads:

I'm Tim Martin, chairman of JD Wetherspoon, a luxury business catering to bitter old alcoholics in the mornings and pissed-up students in the evenings.

 

oh dear, Fartrage as incompetent as ever

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7 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Junker just seemed to rule out an extension. I think they have had an oeff

I think that's because there is a deal (so if accepted no need) - that has yet to pass both the EU and HoP.

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I doubt Junker would have said that off the cuff without there being very careful consideration beforehand.

The EU wants this deal. Without an extension that leaves the choice as no deal or this one. Parliament has consistently shown that it is against no deal so the EU gets what it wants.

Thinks may be looking a little clearer. As I said. Interesting tweet from Kuenssberg....

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If it doesn’t pass HoC I don’t think they’ll extend it. I think the EU has lost patience and it’s this or nought. All that hopeful reconsidering talk has disappeared in recent weeks and they just want it over.

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19 minutes ago, Hairy Canary said:

Yes I can agree with that. He can only request that they do not grant the extension he will have to ask them for. I'm assuming on the grounds that he will state that there is no chance of anything changing to resolve the issue.

The is no way the EU will be wanting to revisit the agreement again so a confirmatory referendum would be one reason for them to agree to an extension.  

Nope, that's wrong as by doing that or anything similar he would be breaking the law ie the 'Benn Act'

 

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4 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I think that's because there is a deal (so if accepted no need) - that has yet to pass both the EU and HoP.

Possibly. He may have been "shooting from the hip" :classic_biggrin:

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17 minutes ago, Van wink said:

So Junker rules out extension, now then, game on and minds focussed.

Have to say Boris is playing a blinder?

Deal or no deal?

 

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4 minutes ago, Canary Wundaboy said:

If it doesn’t pass HoC I don’t think they’ll extend it. I think the EU has lost patience and it’s this or nought. All that hopeful reconsidering talk has disappeared in recent weeks and they just want it over.

I'm sure they've lost patience, but if they were presented with the option of an extension with a definitive endpoint, ie a second referendum on Johnson's deal, they would willingly agree to one, despite Junker's bluster.

Imagine it, the UK Parliament says "we've passed the deal but want it given public consent", and the EU saying, "No, we're not having that". Ironically, in that hypothetical situation, it would be the Remainers moaning about the EU imposing itself on the UK whilst the Brexiteers would be cheering.

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