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Yellowhammer

Our run in not looking as good

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I did think we had a fairly good run ,but after last night and without Emi it's looking harder,Wigan will be hard to beat like reading and sheff weds have started playing well under Bruce.thought our corner taking last night was terrible.heres hoping for a improvement in the next game,enjoyed the vocal support after we got our second amazing .

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1 minute ago, Yellowhammer said:

I did think we had a fairly good run ,but after last night and without Emi it's looking harder,Wigan will be hard to beat like reading and sheff weds have started playing well under Bruce.thought our corner taking last night was terrible.heres hoping for a improvement in the next game,enjoyed the vocal support after we got our second amazing .

Yeah, it was. And that's another reason to consider Vrancic for Sunday – I believe he's the best corner taker in the squad.

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Posted (edited)

Have to say that our run-in looks no harder than it did before, though - if we can’t get the necessary points from we don’t deserve to go up.  

It’s astonishing how one small setback (and only a draw, not defeat) is getting some people so vexed, as if we’ve never done anything but win.  I can see lots of gnashing and wailing ahead if we - God forbid - get a draw (or worse) come Sunday...but we’d still be favourites and a minimum of 4pts from 3rd.

Edited by Branston Pickle
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Posted (edited)

The Leeds v Sheff Weds game this saturday is fairly signigicant, a Sheff Weds win would clearly benefit us but they would then be up for good friday as still having a play off place to go for.

   A Leeds win would probably knock any chance of the playoffs for Weds and they might come with less intensity...

A draw would be ok as it would serve both purposes

Edited by GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary
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Just now, GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary said:

The Leeds v Sheff Weds game this saturday is fairly signigicant, a Sheff Weds win would clearly benefit us but they would then be up for good friday as still having a play off place to go for.

   A Leeds win would probably knock any chance of the playoffs for Weds and they might come with less intensity...

Let’s go for the draw in that game, then - does us a favour on both counts!  (it is odd how people only seem to ‘see’ in wins and losses at this point of the season).

Looking at it, with Bristol’s game in hand, you do wonder if the Owls already have a bit too much to do - but will be well up for the Leeds game.

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14 minutes ago, Feedthewolf said:

Yeah, it was. And that's another reason to consider Vrancic for Sunday – I believe he's the best corner taker in the squad.

Vrancic should be playing, that was crystal clear last night! One of the few decisions by DF that I didn't get...against this type of team you need your creative players who are strong at set pieces

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12 minutes ago, Branston Pickle said:

Have to say that our run-in looks no harder than it did before, though - if we can’t get the necessary points from we don’t deserve to go up.  

It’s astonishing how one small setback (and only a draw, not defeat) is getting some people so vexed, as if we’ve never done anything but win.  I can see lots of gnashing and wailing ahead if we - God forbid - get a draw (or worse) come Sunday...but we’d still be favourites and a minimum of 4pts from 3rd.

This, all day long, with bells on. 

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Would think that Leeds and Sheffield United will pick up 13 points from their respective games

Leeds have Sheffield  Wednesday (H) Wigan (H) Brentford (A) Villa (H) Ipswich (A)

Sheffield U  have Millwall (H) Forest (H) Hull A)  Ipswich (H) Stoke (A)

Plus those games give every chance of a GD difference being made up

Still need 3 wins assuming Leeds and Sheffield get 13 points

Sure they both must now feel it is within their grasp

 

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If both Leeds and Sheffield United pick up 13 from 15 we'd still go up with two wins and a draw from our last 5.

We've been in better form than both of those teams over the last 5 games.

I might agree about them seeing it 'within their grasp' if both of them hadn't dropped points in the last two games but as it is we're further ahead of Leeds than we were this time last week and the same distance clear of Sheffield with six less points to play for.

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2 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Neither Leeds nor Sheff Utd will make it to 90 points.

Not so sure..Sheffield United have three extremely winnable home games (Millwall, Forest and Ipswich) and two winnableish away games (Hull and Stoke). They could win four of those, and get to 90 points. Leeds would need either to win four (91 points) or win three and draw the other two, and their fixtures look markedly harder.

As things stand, assuming (which - to be very clear - I don't) we pick up enough points to stay top, I would expect Sheffield United to finish second, not least because of a goal difference that is likely to stay better than Leeds'.

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If you think our run does not look at as good well I disagree because 4-5 games ago our run in looked the best and we have dropped less points than the other. Our remaining games are all winnable and we should be winning them, but its nervous times and nothing in the race for automatic in the championship should be taken for granted.

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Wigan away is a perfect next game.  They can't sit back, they need the points and this will give us space on the counter.  Confident of a two clear goal win.

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We are actually in a better position than before last night's game. Third-place Sheffield failed to close the points gap on us and there is one less game available for them to catch us.

In the past couple of weeks, the games of the top three show that we are all capable of dropping points.

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Why does the run in look harder now after we actually gained on the chasing pack?

Last nights result was not what we wanted but it was anther point and step to automatic promotion. The run in looks exactly the same as it did at 7.45pm last night. No-one was sent off. No-one injured. We go again Sunday full of expectation.

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I got myself in a right pickle last night , and I consider myself level headed !!

We didn't win , Shock !

That of course meant Sheff U gained points on us .............. hang on , no they didn't .

I had in the back of my head we would slip up last night with a loss , all runs come to an end so with reflection all is the same less another game ticketed off a very short list.

 

On another note, the rabble down the road had a good evening as well .....................:classic_biggrin:

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We want Villa to keep winning and have a guaranteed play-off before we play them. They'll then rest a few key players such as Grealish or lack the intensity they would have otherwise had. It will be sorted before then though. We're still very much in the driving seat.

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Our odds of missing out on promotion roughly trebled last night: they increased from 1% to 3%. I’ll happily take 97%.

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Posted (edited)

Our run in is exactly the same as it was.

We are still way better than all the teams we have to play

We were never going to have a 14 game winning run right through until the end of the season and it could be a blessing in disguise that a wake up call came our way last night.

Edited by Making Plans

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No one should even be giving time to the thought that a draw in the Leeds vs Sheff Wed game would be of any benefit to us, in any way, no matter how small, rather than a win for Sheff Wed.

                         Current             Max

1. Norwich -    85 pts            - 100 pts

2. Leeds -        79 pts              - 94 pts

3. Sheff Utd -  78 pts              - 93 pts

 

There really isn't much room for error at all for Leeds and Sheff Utd if they were to both finish above us!

A Sheff Wed win, would mean Leeds can only reach a MAXIMUM of 91 pts.  It may sound obvious, but every draw takes 2 points off the maximum possible points and every defeat 3 points.  With us 6, and 7 points ahead respectively, at this stage of the season, neither can afford to drop points in more than 1 game.  If either dropped points in 2 of the remaining 5 games, (whatever combination of defeats or draws that is) they won't catch us.

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2 minutes ago, Making Plans said:

Our run in is exactly the same as it was.

We are still way better than all the teams we have to play

We were never going to have a 14 game winning run right through until the end of the season and it could be a blessing in disguise that a wake up call came our way last night.

Oddly, for once I agree with you.  The result last night doesn't change much except that we have to show a reaction and make sure we are 100% at it for the whole 90 plus minutes.

 

 

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26 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Why does the run in look harder now after we actually gained on the chasing pack?

Last nights result was not what we wanted but it was anther point and step to automatic promotion. The run in looks exactly the same as it did at 7.45pm last night. No-one was sent off. No-one injured. We go again Sunday full of expectation.

Agree with this. As someone pointed out, City are marginally in an even better position than on Saturday morning and its 2 games closer to the line for all clubs. I would say the only scenario i'd hate to have is for us to have only a 2 or 3 point lead and a very similar goal difference to both clubs going into the last game, Villa away.  To be top on the final match day and finish by dropping to 3rd would feel like the world has fallen in to the club and its fans.

But the run in has not changed any and its neither easier or harder than it was before last night. In a way our games can be broken down into two clumps of 2 games, the next 2 without Emi, then the following 2 with Emi. That takes us to the Villa game. But anyway, its amazing how 1 drawn game can get all us fans pontificating and examining a 100 different scenarios, any of which could happen.

Its just that...we are soooo close now....so very very close..that is probably the worst thing of all.

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What last nights late equaliser has done is put real pressure on Sunday because we all know that if it goes to the last day we have the toughest assignment and frankly I'm not sure many of us fancy our chances if we need to better Leeds result in that game. Not winning what was probably our easiest game means we have less room for error now. 

Win on Sunday though and all immediately looks much brighter as 2 home wins would then see us promoted even if the others win all their games. Personally i think the Blades will win at least 4 of their 5 remaining games and Leeds have 3 home games plus an away game at relegated (by then) sc*m so again I think we must assume they will win most if not all of their games. 

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8 minutes ago, Jim Smith said:

What last nights late equaliser has done is put real pressure on Sunday because we all know that if it goes to the last day we have the toughest assignment and frankly I'm not sure many of us fancy our chances if we need to better Leeds result in that game. Not winning what was probably our easiest game means we have less room for error now. 

Win on Sunday though and all immediately looks much brighter as 2 home wins would then see us promoted even if the others win all their games. Personally i think the Blades will win at least 4 of their 5 remaining games and Leeds have 3 home games plus an away game at relegated (by then) sc*m so again I think we must assume they will win most if not all of their games. 

That won't happen

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Leeds have drawn 7 and lost 10 of their 41 games this season.  That is 17 games, 41.46% of games, where they have failed to take maximum points.

Sheff Utd have drawn 9 and lost 9 of their 41 games this season.  That is 18 games, 43.90% of games, where they have failed to take maximum points. 

At least one of them will be dropping points over the remaining 5 games.

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Posted (edited)

We maybe in a slightly better position after last night than before....but we didnt win one of our 'bankers' yet the other 2 challenges still have some to come.

Sheff Utd will surely beat Millwall at Bramall Ln on Sat, whilst Leeds v Sheff Weds in tougher to call....but if they both win , theyre breathing down our neck for the next day at Wigan.

The Sheff Weds game on Good Friday will be largely dictated by whether theyre still in the a shot of a playoff place then...which will be clarified by their game at Elland Rd this weekend.

The Blackburn game is the joker we have up our sleeve as it would surely be impossible to handpick more favourable opposition for a penultimate game than a side poor away from home with their bags already packed for the beach.

As discussed the Villa game will be a horrible affair if we/they/both of us still need something, and I wouldnt bank on us coming out the right side.

The most unpredictable game of those we have left is Stoke on easter monday.

   I wouldnt have the first clue what we would be walking into there and what mindset Stoke will be in, more than enough quality throughout their team to really put a spanner in our works , if theyre so inclined....but we could as easily turn up to find a club and set of players who cant wait for the sesson to end and it turns out to be a straightforward win?

Edited by GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary

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Can’t believe the sudden loss of confidence on this forum.  Hope the squad’s made of sterner stuff

Our form is incredible.  8 consecutive wins and a draw.  

Last 14 games, 11 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss.  A 79% win ratio and 35 points out of a possible 42.  Including a win at second place Leeds and a draw with 3rd place Shef U.

Disappointing as it was to concede at the death, it was due to farcical injury time.  Reading we’re very fortunate and these things happen.

We’ll be fine.

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6 minutes ago, GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary said:

We maybe in a slightly better position after last night than before....but we didnt win one of our 'bankers' yet the other 2 challenges still have some to come.

Sheff Utd will surely beat Millwall at Bramall Ln on Sat, whilst Leeds v Sheff Weds in tougher to call....but if they both win , theyre breathing down our neck for the next day at Wigan.

The Sheff Weds game on Good Friday will be largely dictated by whether theyre still in the a shot of a playoff place then...which will be clarified by their game at Elland Rd this weekend.

The Blackburn game is the joker we have up our sleeve as it would surely be impossible to handpick more favourable opposition for a penultimate game than a side poor away from home with their bags already packed for the beach.

As discussed the Villa game will be a horrible affair if we/they/both of us still need something, and I wouldnt bank on us coming out the right side.

The most unpredictable game of those we have left is Stoke on easter monday.

   I wouldnt have the first clue what we would be walking into there and what mindset Stoke will be in, more than enough quality throughout their team to really put a spanner in our works , if theyre so inclined....but we could as easily turn up to find a club and set of players who cant wait for the sesson to end and it turns out to be a straightforward win?

Agree about the Stoke game and for that reason I'm pleased its not on TV as they have several players who it seems to me could be inclined to put on a bit more of a show if being broadcast to a live Tv audience. Keeps the game lower profile. The reality is they have nothing to play for and seem to be playing out a series of goalless or low scoring close matches, possibly as their manager is trying to sort their defence out ahead of a summer re-build.

There seems a lot of concern about the Shef Wednesday game but i have to say from what i've seen of them there is absolutely no reason why we cannot beat them at home on Good Friday. I do though feel that a win on Sunday is essential to take the pressure off those two Easter fixtures. Sky are not really doing us a favour by making us play after Leeds and Shef U for the next few games. 

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