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Yellowhammer

Our run in not looking as good

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Leeds and Sheff Utd - neither will win all of their games. Therefore wouldn’t just one win almost all but guarantee promotion? That I would expect to come on Sunday. Vrancic to start for me.

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9 minutes ago, Jim Smith said:

Agree about the Stoke game and for that reason I'm pleased its not on TV as they have several players who it seems to me could be inclined to put on a bit more of a show if being broadcast to a live Tv audience. Keeps the game lower profile. The reality is they have nothing to play for and seem to be playing out a series of goalless or low scoring close matches, possibly as their manager is trying to sort their defence out ahead of a summer re-build.

There seems a lot of concern about the Shef Wednesday game but i have to say from what i've seen of them there is absolutely no reason why we cannot beat them at home on Good Friday. I do though feel that a win on Sunday is essential to take the pressure off those two Easter fixtures. Sky are not really doing us a favour by making us play after Leeds and Shef U for the next few games. 

I think it will work in our favour. If both clubs win their games and move closer to us points-wise it should motivate us and send us out on the pitch fired up. If either of them drop points then we know we can wrap it up with a win.

As much as we are beginning to sweat a little, the pressure must be telling on the other two clubs. They both know they cannot afford to drop any points at all, a draw is as good as a loss for them at this late stage.

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3 hours ago, daly said:

 

91 points has never (since the current format in 1992-93) not been enough for second place. Just to be safe let's say 92 so we can ignore goal difference. We need 7 points.

Sheff Utd need 13 points to get to 91.

Leeds need 12 points.

I know you're thinking that they can both do that, but they won't. One of them might, but not both. No one has ever got 91 and not finished 2nd. Only once has a team with 90 points not finished second (Sunderland, 1997-98).

92 will do it. Two wins and a draw. 

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It was interesting listening to talksport today as I drove back from Norfolk that during the Jim White show and their discussion on the championship, all four of the commentators were just assuming we are going to win the league and that its between Leeds and Shef U for the second place. As neutrals, they obviously do not share our nerves and just see us getting the necessary points as a relative formality.

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I'm no less confident than before but Stoke, Wednesday and Villa are tough games. That does kind of put pressure on us to get at least 4 from Wigan and Blackburn. We're at our best when the pressure is off, when there's no expectation or we're part of a chasing pack, that's inherent to having a young team that plays the patient, technical style we do. Our game plan doesn't work when we rush things or get frustrated or lose our cool. 

 

If we play at or near our best for 5 games we'll do it. The key to that is Farke keeping every player calm and focused. The tension was palpable at times last night and that's after winning  8 in a row with clear daylight in front of the chasing pack. The pressure is only going to increase from this point, big test of Farke's management coming up. Hoping the crowd do their part and focus on encouraging and supporting. 

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1 hour ago, Christoph Stiepermann said:

I'm no less confident than before but Stoke, Wednesday and Villa are tough games. That does kind of put pressure on us to get at least 4 from Wigan and Blackburn. We're at our best when the pressure is off, when there's no expectation or we're part of a chasing pack, that's inherent to having a young team that plays the patient, technical style we do. Our game plan doesn't work when we rush things or get frustrated or lose our cool. 

 

If we play at or near our best for 5 games we'll do it. The key to that is Farke keeping every player calm and focused. The tension was palpable at times last night and that's after winning  8 in a row with clear daylight in front of the chasing pack. The pressure is only going to increase from this point, big test of Farke's management coming up. Hoping the crowd do their part and focus on encouraging and supporting. 

I disagree.  This team has handled the pressure superbly, we've had numerous games  when the pressure was on and it's not gone our way eg Bristol City, Millwall (going behind at home and them equalising away), Rotherham when they equalised, 3-0 down vs Forest....

 

The nature of football is that sometimes things don't go your way, you have zillions of chances, hit the post, the other side have one break and score.  But the significance of last night is that our system and approach worked.  Despite Reading having weathered a huge amount of pressure and everyone losing faith, we still scored two late goals to be leading at 96 minutes.  It's frustrating that we had a lapse of concentration to let them equalise.  But people really need to keep it in proportion.  We won 8 in a row and are clear at the top for a reason.  Farke has kept the squad focused and in control until now, there's no reason why that should change.

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At the moment we only need 9 points from 5 games to gain automatic promotion.

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52 minutes ago, Hucks6 said:

At the moment we only need 9 points from 5 games to gain automatic promotion.

Only!

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Jim Smith said:

It was interesting listening to talksport today as I drove back from Norfolk that during the Jim White show and their discussion on the championship, all four of the commentators were just assuming we are going to win the league and that its between Leeds and Shef U for the second place. As neutrals, they obviously do not share our nerves and just see us getting the necessary points as a relative formality.

It's understandable though, mathematically we need 9 points from 5 games which is below the 2+ points we've been averaging a game, and for that Sheff Utd and Leeds would need to win every game.

So whilst as a Norwich fan I'm still nervous as hell, I'd still be looking at Luton and Lincoln and thinking they're up already.

Edited by Icecream Snow

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Yes canaryking ONLY not worried like the rest of posters. Draw one game and we are fckued 

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9 hours ago, Yellowhammer said:

I did think we had a fairly good run ,but after last night and without Emi it's looking harder,Wigan will be hard to beat like reading and sheff weds have started playing well under Bruce.thought our corner taking last night was terrible.heres hoping for a improvement in the next game,enjoyed the vocal support after we got our second amazing .

Looking at the last 5 games I can't see much difference between who we Leeds and Sheff Utd play, it's not like anyone has 5 easy games. Villa away is our hardest on paper but all we need to do is match sheff utd results in next 3 games and we are up before we have to play villa.. 

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2 hours ago, Icecream Snow said:

It's understandable though, mathematically we need 9 points from 5 games which is below the 2+ points we've been averaging a game, and for that Sheff Utd and Leeds would need to win every game.

 

Exactly this, we're ahead of the curve, no need to panic. Where's Corporal Jones when you need him?

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Two home wins and it is going to make it hard for the other two. A win or draw at Wigan will be a real bonus and give us such confidence no matter what the others do at the weekend.

It would take a damn good psychologist to convince Leeds and Sheefield Utd players, that seven points clear with four to go and two home games left (even though we have an exemplary away record) wouldn't put us in the driving seat and they will be playing for one spot.

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I don't get all the over exaggerations.  Before the Reading game anyone who dared to think we wouldn't win comfortably was stupid and negative, now, we draw a game - and don't lose ground to Sheff Utd - and we're not going up?

I am worried, it's the nature of having something within your grasp, that it could all go wrong.  99 times out of 100, a team in our position goes up, even if 2nd. I very much doubt we will come 2nd, let alone 3rd. Doesn't stop me worrying about it.

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15 minutes ago, Midlands Yellow said:

True we’re in terrible form. Only 25 points out the last 27 available, what went wrong ? 

It's not form I'm worried about - its luck. Quite a number of the games in the 8 game winning streak were by the odd goal. In those games, the opposition missed simple chances or we produced magic to win it. We have had luck on our side. Fortune turned against us Wednesday night. That bad luck can lead into the next game. All of a sudden it snowballs, then suddenly we'll in the middle of a bad run and a rut. The harder we try, the harder to get a result. The bounce of the ball and the referee are against us. We could end up drawing games rather than winning them. it would be nervy if we ended with 5 draws and 90 points. 

On top of this Sheffield Utd and Leeds have 3 homes games to our 2. We need to beat Wigan to keep our advantage. Hit them with full intensity from the first whistle. No goals can be scored against us if we are camped in their third.

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Which games were we lucky in? The Swansea game, perhaps a draw was fair - but other than this? Regardless, against Swansea no way was our luck in anywhere near as much as Reading’s was on Wednesday! 

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31 minutes ago, Six Pack said:

Hit them with full intensity from the first whistle. No goals can be scored against us if we are camped in their third.

Did you miss Wednesday night?

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I will reiterate what I posted on ldc's maudlin thread:

No team in the history of a 46 game season in the second tier of English football has ever lost the title from the position we are in at this stage of the season, let alone failed to be promoted automatically. 

It would be a monumental downturn in our form, coupled with much greater form from BOTH teams below us that sees us miss out. It is so unlikely, but because we care about it we think the worst. 

We are as good as promoted. The team will win at least two of the last five and that will do. We have only lost 6 all season. Do we really believe we will suddenly turn to jelly and lose 3-4 matches in the last 5?!?!?

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Sometimes being bold brings its share of good luck. But, and no doubt every club can say the same, we have been on the rough end of some decisions this season.

I think we deserved a penalty Wednesday night (no assurance of a goal I know) but the referee, who I thought tried to let the game flow, didn't give it.

I think it does even itself out to the teams who are fair and above board.

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17 hours ago, splendidrush said:

Exactly this, we're ahead of the curve, no need to panic. Where's Corporal Jones when you need him?

If he's not in the shop, you'll probably find him round Mrs Fox. at Mrs Fox's house.

 

 

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6 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Sometimes being bold brings its share of good luck. But, and no doubt every club can say the same, we have been on the rough end of some decisions this season.

I think we deserved a penalty Wednesday night (no assurance of a goal I know) but the referee, who I thought tried to let the game flow, didn't give it.

I think it does even itself out to the teams who are fair and above board.

That's the negativity bias of the human brain at work. We always remember the ones we don't get more than the ones we do.

However, I would suggest that we deserved two penalties on Wednesday night – the one on Trybull in the first half, and the one on Pukki in the second half.

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3 minutes ago, Feedthewolf said:

That's the negativity bias of the human brain at work. We always remember the ones we don't get more than the ones we do.

However, I would suggest that we deserved two penalties on Wednesday night – the one on Trybull in the first half, and the one on Pukki in the second half.

First one yes, second one a bit more debatable. Based on our record for converting them though, we'd have needed at least eight awarded before it made a difference to the scoreline!

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However, I would suggest that we deserved two penalties on Wednesday night – the one on Trybull in the first half, and the one on Pukki in the second half.

I cancelled out the Trybull one as he was lucky not to give one away after he lost the ball in our area.

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56 minutes ago, Hank shoots Skyler said:

Which games were we lucky in? The Swansea game, perhaps a draw was fair - but other than this? Regardless, against Swansea no way was our luck in anywhere near as much as Reading’s was on Wednesday! 

The point I'm trying make is misfortune could hit our team. Reading is a good example where they only had 3 shots all game and got 2. In our winning run of 8 games we rode our luck in a lot of cases. Those won by the odd goal had an element of fortune where the opposition could have scored. In all those games it was either a penalty that the referee didn't give to the opposition or a miss. Examples - do you recall the Middlesbrough game ?  Ayala missed a header at the beginning of the 2nd half. Our boys were just rooted to the ground, his header just went the wrong side of the post. We didn't score in the 2nd half so that could have been a draw if it went in. Hugill also missed for them near the end of the game. Against Bristol City where we won 3-2. Marley Watkins could have scored for them at the far post in the final seconds of the game. Don't get me wrong, we outplayed all those teams and deserved the wins but things could easily change if the football gods are against us. Even if we dominate possession. 

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