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Bill

tonight's football

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31 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Just hoping for the home win tomorrow and back to 8 points difference to second and then hope 10 points difference to third (think SU will struggle at Birmingham). That changes the dynamics again and simply keeps a lot of pressure on the two chasers.

Im thinking Sheff Utd will beat Brum tomorrow night, its a hard ask for any team to beat  both Leeds and Sheff. in the space of 3 or 4 days. Both Yorkshire clubs are up there for a reason so  dont expect either to drop to many points in the run in...especially Wilder's lot. City have a nice  cushion but  they cannot afford to drop to many points. Keep on doing as theyve done and they should be ok. Reading, on paper, look  there for the taking, but they do sneak a  good number of away draws, so will they park the bus? We will see.

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3 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

 so will they park the bus? We will see.

I expect them to, otherwise the players will have difficulty getting off 😋

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I'm leaning towards a draw tomorrow, for no other reason than we can't win every game and the Buendia thing has unsettled things.

I'm sure that we'll boss it but it just might be a frustrating evening. I still wouldn't be panicking, the chasers would still rather be in our position. 

 

 

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9 hours ago, Essjayess said:

Im thinking Sheff Utd will beat Brum tomorrow night, its a hard ask for any team to beat  both Leeds and Sheff. in the space of 3 or 4 days. Both Yorkshire clubs are up there for a reason so  dont expect either to drop to many points in the run in...especially Wilder's lot. City have a nice  cushion but  they cannot afford to drop to many points. Keep on doing as theyve done and they should be ok. Reading, on paper, look  there for the taking, but they do sneak a  good number of away draws, so will they park the bus? We will see.

So what you’re saying is that we’re not guaranteed to go up yet? Asking for a friend.

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You can't win every game, just look at the recent record for Leeds & Sheff U....

 

The great thing is that even if we lose tonight, we'll be 5 points clear of 3rd place and 4 points clear of 2nd, with just 5 games to go.  And if you'd offered me that at the start of the season....

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12 hours ago, Essjayess said:

Im thinking Sheff Utd will beat Brum tomorrow night, its a hard ask for any team to beat  both Leeds and Sheff. in the space of 3 or 4 days. Both Yorkshire clubs are up there for a reason so  dont expect either to drop to many points in the run in...especially Wilder's lot. City have a nice  cushion but  they cannot afford to drop to many points. Keep on doing as theyve done and they should be ok. Reading, on paper, look  there for the taking, but they do sneak a  good number of away draws, so will they park the bus? We will see.

Parking the bus will play into our hands. We will just sit in front of their penalty area stroking the ball around and wait to pull their defenders out of shape. It takes only one momentary lapse of concentration and our ball-playing forwards will slice them apart. 

The teams that do well against us are those that press our defenders and cause our centre-backs to panic or play long

I'd take park the bus everytime

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2 hours ago, It's Character Forming said:

You can't win every game, just look at the recent record for Leeds & Sheff U....

 

The great thing is that even if we lose tonight, we'll be 5 points clear of 3rd place and 4 points clear of 2nd, with just 5 games to go.  And if you'd offered me that at the start of the season....

On previous form the probability is that we will win rather than lose. It's not like tossing a coin where it falls randomly heads or tails. 

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32 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

On previous form the probability is that we will win rather than lose. It's not like tossing a coin where it falls randomly heads or tails. 

true, and we will start strong favourites tonight I expect.  But equally, even the best teams in football don't win all their games.  So if we lose or draw tonight, people shouldn't overreact - we'd still be in a really good position.

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No need to over react City will win tonight by at least 3 and again on Sunday. Clean sheets have become the norm now mainly attributable to Tom T's defensive displays. Buendia is a Miss but will not be missed tonight. We will be promoted on Good Friday.

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3 hours ago, It's Character Forming said:

You can't win every game, just look at the recent record for Leeds & Sheff U....

 

 

Maybe not but you can't win 8 on the trot either.

Oh, hang on, didn't we just do that

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Can't see Brum beating Leeds and Sheff Utd. We only need to worry about our games though. All out attack from the off and don't let Reading get settled and organised. Strangely I think Leeds beating Preston will help us keep focused and not be complacent. We need full vocal support from the fans tonight as it won't be as easy as the truly shocking QPR. Battle stations! 

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2 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

On previous form the probability is that we will win rather than lose. It's not like tossing a coin where it falls randomly heads or tails. 

The truth is RTB that, for any single game, it is far more like tossing a coin than people think; fortune, good or bad, plays a huge part in deciding the outcome. The authors of The Numbers Game, for example, make a plausible case for attributing equal weight to fortune on the one hand, and skill, tactics etc. on the other. Form doesn't win or lose any match; factors outside the control of any of the participants do, ever so frequently. We will know at the end of the game whether it has gone to form!

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3 minutes ago, westcoastcanary said:

The truth is RTB that, for any single game, it is far more like tossing a coin than people think; fortune, good or bad, plays a huge part in deciding the outcome. The authors of The Numbers Game, for example, make a plausible case for attributing equal weight to fortune on the one hand, and skill, tactics etc. on the other. Form doesn't win or lose any match; factors outside the control of any of the participants do, ever so frequently. We will know at the end of the game whether it has gone to form!

Very, very difficult to assess luck during a game, Westie. Imagine a player off the field getting treatment meaning he's not at the far post to defend a corner and his team concedes a goal. Bad luck or bad defending? Or a defender slips and let's in an attacker? Bad luck or bad defending?

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Checking the betting odds online they are (on the site I’ve found first):

 

Norwich 4/11

draw 15/4

reading 7/1

They look like a plausible assessment of the probabilities for tonight to me.

 

Luck is involved but the odds are stacked.

 

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27 minutes ago, FenwayFrank said:

I bet our expected goals is higher than theirs though 

:classic_biggrin: It certainly is FF. And we've scored even more than expected. Trouble is, just as you can win matches with unexpected goals, you can also lose them ........ 

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29 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

Checking the betting odds online they are (on the site I’ve found first):

 

Norwich 4/11

draw 15/4

reading 7/1

They look like a plausible assessment of the probabilities for tonight to me.

 

Luck is involved but the odds are stacked.

 

No wonder I've never met a poor bookmaker. I'll be watching tonight's game in the comfort of my bookie friend's luxury yacht :classic_biggrin:

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Just need Indy Bones to say heatmaps don't help analyse a game in isolation and Nutty to say Delia has run her course and we'll be truly through the looking glass.

Oh and Highland to say something positive.

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13 minutes ago, king canary said:

Just need Indy Bones to say heatmaps don't help analyse a game in isolation and Nutty to say Delia has run her course and we'll be truly through the looking glass.

Oh and Highland to say something positive.

Who? (are ya)

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Clearly luck has an impact on games, but I think the point is that if you're generating 7/8 great chances each game the likelihood of it affecting the result is far less.

No one remembers the fluke your opponent scores if you still win the game by several goals.

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43 minutes ago, king canary said:

Just need Indy Bones to say heatmaps don't help analyse a game in isolation and Nutty to say Delia has run her course and we'll be truly through the looking glass.

Oh and Highland to say something positive.

And Grefstad to say he's watching on a 14-inch black-and-white telly.

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I’m baffled as to why anyone is expecting anything other than a fairly easy victory? Even The Reading fans are expecting a hiding.  This side and Farke have given no reasons to believe that they won’t come out professionally, focused and do what needs to be done. I fully expect us to win by at least 2 clear goals, then on to another victory at the weekend 

Edited by JF

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2 minutes ago, JF said:

I’m baffled as to why anyone is expecting anything other than a fairly easy victory? Even The Reading fans are expecting a hiding.  This side and Farke have given no reasons to believe that they won’t come out professionally, focused and do what needs to be done. I fully expect us to win be at least 2 clear goals, then on to another victory at the weekend 

You're baffled?

It's this kind of post that baffles me.  I would certainly expect that the team will come out focussed and professional - and even passionate - but nothing is "fairly easy" in the championship. We may well run out winners, but unless Reading lie down with their legs and arms in the air, it will not be easy.

 

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Just now, lake district canary said:

You're baffled?

It's this kind of post that baffles me.  I would certainly expect that the team will come out focussed and professional - and even passionate - but nothing is "fairly easy" in the championship. We may well run out winners, but unless Reading lie down with their legs and arms in the air, it will not be easy.

 

So QPR wasn’t easy then....

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11 minutes ago, JF said:

So QPR wasn’t easy then....

QPR were worse than useless, rarely have I seen a match this season where a team looked so clueless against us, maybe Leeds and Bolton away.....

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1 minute ago, lake district canary said:

QPR were worse than useless, rarely have I seen a match this season where a team looked so clueless against us, maybe Leeds and Bolton away.....

So easy then, yeah?

“So ****ing easy

this is so ****ing easy

Oh this is so ****ing easy” 🤣

 

 

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