Getting ahead of ourselves

[CANARYKING 637]

Seven games to go, twenty one points, a hell of a lot can happen between now and the end of the season, Messrs Bailey, Freezer and co are talking as if we’re already there. I think we will make it BUT.......

 

Just saying !

[canarydan23 4,060]

Perhaps reminiscent of how the Wolves fans were talking in 2002. We all know what happened there.

Win the next two home games with Alex Neil doing us a huge favour and then I'll start leaving the tena pads in the bathroom.

[lake district canary 4,531]

It's great to enjoy the feeling that we might be going somewhere, but we are not there yet.  Fortunately, we have a manager who seems to have his feet on the ground and will not let the players get ahead of themselves, so we should be confident, but not over confident.   We are not there yet!

[Daz Sparks 1,152]

1 minute ago, lake district canary said:

It's great to enjoy the feeling that we might be going somewhere, but we are not there yet.  Fortunately, we have a manager who seems to have his feet on the ground and will not let the players get ahead of themselves, so we should be confident, but not over confident.   We are not there yet!

That’s where I’m at Lakey. 

It’s interesting though that every fan of other clubs tell you that we are as good as promoted. 

[BroadstairsR 2,162]

Facts speak for themselves, the table doesn't lie, seven points ahead of third, just seven games to go, most of the walking wounded available, benign run-in, our main rivals showing definite signs of nervousness, seeming excellent attitude of manager and players and so on and so on.

Come on! It doesn't get much better than that.

My glass is still only three-quarters full though .... it's a funny old game.

Nah! We're as good as up. Even though my glass is now empty ......  Hic!

 

(Perhaps us devotees are the last ones to ask ... the rest of the footballing world seem to think our promotion is a safe bet.)

 

 

Edited April 4, 2019 by BroadstairsR

[Feedthewolf 4,846]

The bookies have us at 1/50 to be promoted – is there anywhere I can bet on us not to be promoted? A cheeky £50 at 16/1 would offer some serious recompense if we do manage to somehow bol|ocks it up...

[Badger 2,405]

"There's many a slip 'twixt the cup and the lip" and "don't count your chickens before they hatch" etc

I would agree that we are odds-on to go up (1-50 according to odds checker) but I shall wait until it's a mathematical certainty until I stop worrying!

[Branston Pickle 3,656]

Yup, pretty much everyone has us as nailed-on certainties - and to be fair we’d be saying the same if anyone else found themselves in our position.  

I’m sure that we’ll turn in a display on Saturday (and then Wednesday) to put all the pressure on Leeds and Blades.

But there’s always that nagging doubt...

[Icecream Snow 761]

I thought Dave Freezer's article was balanced

https://www.pinkun.com/norwich-city/three-wins-should-seal-promotion-for-canaries-1-5976469

Mathematically we'd need 5 wins from 7 games, but 3 - 4 is more realistic. At this stage of the season, points on the board are everything, with the last seven games coming in a 29 day window. We're on a seven game winning streak, and have only lost three out of our last thirty four games.

Unless there's an absolute mental implosion, everything points to us going up.

[BroadstairsR 2,162]

12 minutes ago, Badger said:

"There's many a slip 'twixt the cup and the lip" and "don't count your chickens before they hatch" etc

I would agree that we are odds-on to go up (1-50 according to odds checker) but I shall wait until it's a mathematical certainty until I stop worrying!

"A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush."

"A foot in the door."

"A golden key can open any door."

"A Daniel came to judgement" 

 Shakespeare from the Merchant of Venice. Daniel in the bible was re-known for good judgement.

Prophetic or what? Ask DF what he thinks then.

 

On the other hand:

 

"A miss is as good as a mile." (Stll better off than ITFC though.)

Edited April 4, 2019 by BroadstairsR

[kick it off 1,948]

I called it on 3rd of November that we'd go up, after visiting Hillsborough and watching our boys put on a comprehensive display in a show of total dominance. The next week when we lapsed towards the end but still showed the grit, desire and fight to sneak the win against Millwall in the dying seconds I said we'd go up as Champions. I've got a group chat with a couple of mates, one a WBA fan and one a Villa fan and they had a field day ripping it after I made those bold predictions in there. They're not laughing anymore.

Nothing I have seen since then has made me waver even the slightest bit on either of those statements.

Yes there are still points left on the board, and it is possible we could screw it up. It's in the realms of incredibly unlikely that we'll drop enough points for both of the teams below us to catch us, and they won't drop any at all. One of those things may happen but I don't see both happening.

Frankly, we are the best team in the league, the table doesn't lie and nobody in this division scares me. I think the latest that confirmation will be granted will be Stoke but I fancy it to be good Friday vs Wednesday.

We're going up, we deserve to go up and whilst the mathematical confirmation isn't there, the unfaltering belief in this squad from myself, Farke and most importantly the squad themselves says we will go up.

[ROBFLECK 132]

44 minutes ago, lake district canary said:

It's great to enjoy the feeling that we might be going somewhere, but we are not there yet.  Fortunately, we have a manager who seems to have his feet on the ground and will not let the players get ahead of themselves, so we should be confident, but not over confident.   We are not there yet!

That's exactly my opinion Lakey... The fact that Farke is such a level headed figure , does make me more confident that our team will not be taking anything for granted. A few more good results and I will be getting the flag out...

[splendidrush 700]

Even Daniel said after our win at the Captain James Cook Stadium,  that we're  allowed to dream, that doesn't mean we're tempting fate,or that our form will fall off a cliff.

You guys will be doing your bit  by backing the boys against QPR and Reading,  then turning up in your thousands at Wigan, getting ahead of ourselves? Yes, taking it for granted? I don't think so.

[ricardo 7,384]

I don't step on the cracks in the pavement, wear my lucky gloves to every game and alternate my yellow or green tipped socks before every match.

As long as I continue to do so, things will go well.👍

 

[Thirsty Lizard 3,161]

26 minutes ago, Feedthewolf said:

The bookies have us at 1/50 to be promoted – is there anywhere I can bet on us not to be promoted? A cheeky £50 at 16/1 would offer some serious recompense if we do manage to somehow bol|ocks it up...

Yes there is Mr Wolf. You would have to open an account on Betfair and LAY Norwich to be promoted.  If you lay Norwich at the 1.07 which is on offer at the moment you would pay out £7 for every £100 you lay if Norwich ARE promoted. So if you lay Norwich for £500.00 you will pay out £35.00 if we do go up but make £475.00 (£500.00 - Betfair's 5% commission) if we don't. 

That is the equivalent of backing Norwich not to be promoted at odds of 12.57/1. 

If all of the above doesn't make much sense to you and you do really want to do it PM me.

Here's what the market looks like on Betfair at the moment. 

[SwindonCanary 455]

It was a lot better odds when I did my usual £1 bet on Norwich going up !

[Thirsty Lizard 3,161]

I would also add Mr Wolf that you shouldn't lay Norwich at 1.07. Money has already been matched at 1.05 so you would almost certainly get your bet on at 1.05 which equates to odds of 18/1 on us not getting promoted. 

[Feedthewolf 4,846]

9 minutes ago, Thirsty Lizard said:

I would also add Mr Wolf that you shouldn't lay Norwich at 1.07. Money has already been matched at 1.05 so you would almost certainly get your bet on at 1.05 which equates to odds of 18/1 on us not getting promoted. 

Thank you very much for the info, Mr Lizard. However, I have promised myself I will not get involved in the exchanges – I have a very addictive personality and am quite happy just popping a few quid in my Bill Hill account every now and again. I lived with a bookie for years and I am well aware of the dangers of getting sucked into that rather murky water... 🙂

[kick it off 1,948]

7 minutes ago, Feedthewolf said:

Thank you very much for the info, Mr Lizard. However, I have promised myself I will not get involved in the exchanges – I have a very addictive personality and am quite happy just popping a few quid in my Bill Hill account every now and again. I lived with a bookie for years and I am well aware of the dangers of getting sucked into that rather murky water... 🙂

My mate was a gambling addict - ended up more than £27,000 in debt.... The way he conquered his addiction was.... to become a bookie. He worked in William Hill for a couple of years as he thought it might help him to overcome his addiction if he saw it from the other side... it did 🙂

[Feedthewolf 4,846]

Just now, kick it off said:

My mate was a gambling addict - ended up more than £27,000 in debt.... The way he conquered his addiction was.... to become a bookie. He worked in William Hill for a couple of years as he thought it might help him to overcome his addiction if he saw it from the other side... it did 🙂

My mate makes a tidy profit from betting every year, but sees first-hand every day how it can destroy lives if you let it get out of hand. I had my biggest weekend ever last weekend (won nearly £250) but have only betted about a tenner of it so far. That kind of win will last me absolutely ages, and I won't start chucking it around.

[SwindonCanary 455]

I joined all these betting sites when they were giving free bets to new users, went for dead certs to start with and have never added any funds, only betting very small amounts.

[nutty nigel 7,531]

For just £10 a year we can be part of this messageboard's Ray's Funds community and have fun and excitement for a year without risk. 

On Saturday we will celebrate handing over £2,324 to the CSF to help fund the Norwich City Downs Syndrome football team. This will be the third consecutive year over £2,000 has been raised.

How do we turn the tenners into so much money? I'm afraid it had little to do with gambling. It's mainly down to community and love.

We'd love more current posters to be involved.

[crispeduk 282]

‘It’s interesting though that every fan of other clubs tell you that we are as good as promoted.’

Too true Daz, I went for a pint last night, a Makem friend came in and the first thing he said was ‘Do you think you’ll stay up next season?’ It’s taken as read by others – they know all our rivals have to win all their games to put us back under real pressure, it’s not going to happen. That’s not arrogance that’s glass half full logic and it’s how neutrals see it.

[Midlands Yellow 3,975]

Could take a long time to get over not being promoted from this position . 99% of Norwich fans would be in shock and and the repercussions from losing a fair few players would be immense.

Having said that there’s no need to worry as Norwich will be promoted with points to spare . 

 

 

[pete 319]

If we throw it away now it would be business as usual however City this season are not the norm I expect promotion at a canter 7 more wins should be achievable . And 22 goals in those games would yield 100 goals and 102 points wish would be nice. Betting on City to win games as singles not an option 4\11 to beat QPR. The value has gone trousered 60 quid for Leeds win and Derby unfortunately. Cut out the anxiety we are almost there.

[Fuzzar 1,702]

1 minute ago, pete said:

If we throw it away now it would be business as usual however City this season are not the norm I expect promotion at a canter 7 more wins should be achievable . And 22 goals in those games would yield 100 goals and 102 points wish would be nice. Betting on City to win games as singles not an option 4\11 to beat QPR. The value has gone trousered 60 quid for Leeds win and Derby unfortunately. Cut out the anxiety we are almost there.

I've just plugged this into Google translate and got nothing.

[Graham Paddons Beard 2,431]

4 hours ago, Feedthewolf said:

Thank you very much for the info, Mr Lizard. However, I have promised myself I will not get involved in the exchanges – I have a very addictive personality and am quite happy just popping a few quid in my Bill Hill account every now and again. I lived with a bookie for years and I am well aware of the dangers of getting sucked into that rather murky water... 🙂

FTW - Sky Bet are offering 11/1 for City NOT to be promoted - Football > Specials > Team Specials> End of Season Specials. 

Sheff UTD are 11/10 Leeds 7/4 

The bookies have us up. And the binners down (150/1 to stay up.)  

 

[JF 694]

The best part of being in the PL is arguably the season which you get promoted. There’s no ifs, We are going up this season so enjoy it. Regarding the gambling posts, stick to a sensible staking plan, don’t gamble what you’re not comfortable losing and don’t trust any internet ‘tipsters’! These guys make significant profit from their followers losses. And as NN says there is a thread on here which can be participated in risk free.

Edited April 4, 2019 by JF

[kick it off 1,948]

Essentially to make this a factual rather than a philosophical conversation, let's put some clarity on the situation.

We have 7 games left, and are 7 points clear. That means there are 21 points to play for.

If Sheff Utd win all their games, then 15 points is needed for mathematical certainty as we are only 1 Goal better on GD....We need 17 points to stay ahead of Leeds if they win all their games, but we are 5 goals better on GD.

Every time Sheff Utd or Leeds fail to win, the number of points they drop will come off the total we need to secure promotion.

So If Sheff Utd lose on Sat, and we win, that 15 points we need is suddenly just 9 points (10 if they draw). One win, and Sheff Utd to drop points at any time in the next 7 games means we would need 3 wins and a draw out of the remaining 6 games. I struggle to see us not following this through.

At the moment, we're playing for a set number of points to secure promotion, but that total cannot go up, and time is on our side as every game takes points off the table for Leeds and Sheff.

I know this is all common sense but thought putting it down in black and white might help some see a bit more light at the end of the (premier league) tunnel.

Edited April 4, 2019 by kick it off

[wcorkcanary 4,334]

Thems the facts , them are.