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Jim Smith

Watching us in the last few games is a little confusing

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Other than of course the key consistent feature which is that we just keep winning. I feel its been a bit of a topsy turvy few weeks and that the international break perhaps comes at a good time for us and will enable Farke to get back on the training ground and work on one or two bits and pieces. Earlier in the season, he often put out teams after international breaks that contained key partnerships consisting of players he had available to work with during the break so it will be interesting to see if we see any tweaks to the team for the Middlesbrough game which I feel will be one where keeping possession of the ball and frustrating them could be important. I don't think he will change it but he might be tempted.

We've won 6 on the trot and yet you could argue that all bar Bolton have been some of our least convincing performances for a while. Our quality, spirit and will to win means we invariable find a way and in most games its felt like we've got another gear if absolutely necessary but the team has not looked quite as balanced and we don;t feel like we have real control of games, we've had a well documented little spat over Krul and almost unnoticed Pukki is having a little spell where his goal touch has deserted him. Ordinarily i'd say it would be good for him to have a rest rather than play for Finland but an international goal might do him good. Had he taken his chances last few games then they may not have felt anything like as nervy. Meanwhile Farke has taken to using his subs even later than before, primarily to time waste in injury time which means quality players like Vrancic and Leitner are reduced to less than 10 minutes a game. All in all I come away from every game primarily elated that we've won and the charge continues but also a little frustrated that we've made life a little hard for ourselves by not quite hitting the heights that we are capable of and I think we are all a little more nervous about the run in and the promotion race than we would otherwise be because of this. If you look at the table as an objective observer then we should be supremely confident but most Norwich fans remain a little anxious about the whole thing.

It would be great to go to Boro and turn in a really convincing, Leeds style performance. We get ahead there and keep the ball and their fans will turn on Pulis big time. I think it would also give our fanbase the confidence to see the team over the line with a bit of a swagger.

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55 minutes ago, Jim Smith said:

we've had a well documented little spat over Krul and almost unnoticed Pukki is having a little spell where his goal touch has deserted him

Exactly. Pukki has been poorer in his position than Krul in his recently, yet all some fans can moan about is Krul. Thats not to say Pukki hasn’t contributed as he has helped create some goals and been full of running. Similarly Krul has made some mistakes but made some key saves and kept us in games. I’ve no doubt Pukki will be banging in goals again very soon and Krul will continue to make some crucial saves whilst cutting out the amount of errors.

Unfortunately as he’s the gk he gets and will get far too much unwarranted criticism. Pukki and Krul have been key parts of the team this season, just wish they would be treated equally by the fans.

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I think it's also natural as you get to the latter part of the season. Teams you'd expect us to 'control' are now desperately fighting for points above and beyond what they were earlier in the season (illogical but true). 

Teams around us are obviously finding it just as, if not more difficult as they're still below us. I think it's just the nature of the league as opposed to us doing anything differently. Pukki is likely mentally and physically fatigued and maybe the international break, albeit with him playing, will be a good thing. He in particular has played a serious amount of minutes this season and got through a lot of work.

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14 minutes ago, hogesar said:

I think it's also natural as you get to the latter part of the season. Teams you'd expect us to 'control' are now desperately fighting for points above and beyond what they were earlier in the season (illogical but true). 

Teams around us are obviously finding it just as, if not more difficult as they're still below us. I think it's just the nature of the league as opposed to us doing anything differently. Pukki is likely mentally and physically fatigued and maybe the international break, albeit with him playing, will be a good thing. He in particular has played a serious amount of minutes this season and got through a lot of work.

I agree and disagree Hogesar. Teams such as Rotherham and Millwall obviously are fighting and making it a battle but the midfield line up does make us play a little differently. As Bailey has highlighted in his column today, Mclean arguably brings more goal threat in that position than the other options (although Vrancic was giving him a run for his money in that regard before he got injured) but the flipside is we don;t perhaps have the same level of control of games as we do when someone like Leitner plays which i think can make them more end to end and nervy than might otherwise be the case.

I felt a bit the same when Leitner first got injured and Vrancic came in. We suddenly started scoring more but looked a little more vulnerable but then as Vrancic established himself in the side and grew in confidence then we started to get the control back as well. I suppose the tight promotion battle that makes everything seem more nervy than it perhaps is!

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PS I would also acknowledge that the games where we seem to have less control also tend to be the ones where Stiepermann is a little off his game as he then does give the ball away quite a bit. He really has become a very important player in terms of how this team plays.

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It is evident I think that Stiepermann doesn't have the same effect when McLean is playing. Whether this is just coincidence is arguable. I think I preferred the side as it was before Leiner's injury but there is no guarantee that we would return to the level should we restore that side.

Pukki is just having a striker's holiday in front of goal at the moment. His work rate and value to the team is the same as ever. It happens. But he is creating space for others so the scoring will return. Salah is having the same problem in front of goal.

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8 minutes ago, Jim Smith said:

I agree and disagree Hogesar. Teams such as Rotherham and Millwall obviously are fighting and making it a battle but the midfield line up does make us play a little differently. As Bailey has highlighted in his column today, Mclean arguably brings more goal threat in that position than the other options (although Vrancic was giving him a run for his money in that regard before he got injured) but the flipside is we don;t perhaps have the same level of control of games as we do when someone like Leitner plays which i think can make them more end to end and nervy than might otherwise be the case.

I felt a bit the same when Leitner first got injured and Vrancic came in. We suddenly started scoring more but looked a little more vulnerable but then as Vrancic established himself in the side and grew in confidence then we started to get the control back as well. I suppose the tight promotion battle that makes everything seem more nervy than it perhaps is!

Farke is in a nice but difficult position in that the two central midfielders have given us end product in recent weeks. McLean and Stipermann have delivered 6 goals in the last 6 games which has helped to make up for Pukki's mini dry spell. However we clearly don't control the game in the same way with those two next to each other. 

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Imo this is all part of the development of players and partnerships between players. We have a young side that is winning matches. If we were not winning matches, then there would be changes in the starting line up and earlier changes during matches. 

Could we improve closing out of matches with earlier subs and betterr control? Maybe, but then you could say we have been closing out matches anyway.......so whatever the situation, it is working. 

I would like to see Leitner and Vrancic in the starting line up, but Mclean is keepng them both out because he is scoring goals and providing assists.  Long may he do that, but if his form drops and we don't score, that will be the time to bring Vrancic and/or Leitner in.

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Yes, McLean gives us a goal threat.....but I dont think we were struggling for goals beforehand?.

Vrancic can also provide goals but also do so much more in terms of controlling the midfield and his all round game had arguably become bigger than Leitner's before his injury.

We've won 6 in a row , which cant be sniffed at, at all....bt the unquantifiable is would we have won in a different way , style or even more convincingly and been tighter defensively had different personnel had been on the pitch?

Its a nice position to be in for Farke but he must be constantly second guessing himself?

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It's also man management skills - keeping faith with those that are doing the business. It means all players, whether they are in the team or not know exactly what will happen - if the team is winning you will keep your place in the team.   It also means that if a player does come in to the team, they know that they will have to deliver or risk losing their place.  It seems a good strategy to me - keeps the squad totally competitive.  It might be frustrating for those on the bench - or they might just accept the situation because they undertstand how it works and as I say, everyone knows how it will be - the team wins and you keep your place.

 

 

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24 minutes ago, GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary said:

Yes, McLean gives us a goal threat.....but I dont think we were struggling for goals beforehand?.

For different reasons. In the first half of the season, performance stat watchers, including myself, kept pointing out that our GF exceeded our xG by an unhealthy amount, meaning that we were scoring more goals than our chance creation merited (or, to put it another way, we were relying on exceptionally clinical finishing, mainly from Teemu). The general view was that, as the season progressed, the probability was that we would witness a regression to the mean, with our GF total coming more into line with our xG. There are two ways in which that regression can be realised; one is by a reduction in the quality of finishing, bringing down the number of goals scored; the other is by creating more and better chances, bringing xG up closer to GF. Since January we have been doing the latter rather than the former. So, whereas at one point we had the biggest discrepancy between GF and xG in the league (a whopping 12.5), that has since come down to a mere 5.2, which is the sort of discrepancy normal for top performing sides irrespective of league. This isn't because we've been struggling for goals but rather because we are now creating more and better chances (for instance, in 5 of our last 10 matches our xG has been 2.4 or greater). 

My conclusion is that DF and his staff think that what we need at the moment is to keep our foot on the accelerator, rather than slow down and proceed a bit more cautiously; and that (rather than "loyalty to a winning team") is why he's kept Vrancic/McLean and Godfrey in the side. 

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PS That figure of 5.2 is not the figure for the season as a whole. It's the figure for the latest rolling average over the previous 10 games.

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1 hour ago, king canary said:

Farke is in a nice but difficult position in that the two central midfielders have given us end product in recent weeks. McLean and Stipermann have delivered 6 goals in the last 6 games which has helped to make up for Pukki's mini dry spell. However we clearly don't control the game in the same way with those two next to each other. 

You've forgotten Godfrey kc. He is to Klose what Vrancic/McLean are to Leitner!

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Before the Rotherham game I was inclined to prefer Klose back in the starting line up because I had noticed that, against Swansea, so many of the many decent  corners we had we had were being comfortably dealt with by the heads of the Swans defenders.

Nothing against Godfrey, but he is young whereas Klose has more leadership and experience to  his bow and has a reputation in front of goal at corners/crosses etc.

How wrong was I with Godfrey heading the winner the way he did?

I also wanted McClean replaced in favour of Vrancic or Leitner.

Nothing against McClean, he had added useful goals/points to our tally, I just thought the other two more significant in midfield.  

How wrong was I with KM scoring that brilliant opener and having a good game?

 

As somebody said, "Leave it to Farke." He clearly knows what he is doing.

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2 hours ago, Jim Smith said:

PS I would also acknowledge that the games where we seem to have less control also tend to be the ones where Stiepermann is a little off his game as he then does give the ball away quite a bit. He really has become a very important player in terms of how this team plays.

So Jimbo, which game did we have less control, Millwall H or Millwall A?

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Not really confusing - we're doing what it takes to win against some very tough sides, after a really long, draining run of fixtures so far (is it 9 matches in the last 6 weeks, including Leeds away). I would love to see us dominating every match and winning by 3 goals or more, but at this stage of the season it just doesn't happen given the nature of the opposition we're playing. That said, I think we have actually shown some absolutely sparkling football in periods of recent performances that perhaps have warranted more goals than the substantial amount we've scored.

I think you're right to say that Pukki's finishing is not as sharp as it has been, but he is still absolutely vital to the way we play given the assists he has come up with in recent games. It's not a coincidence he is top of the goalscoring charts, and one pass from being top of the assists chart too.

Edited by Ian

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1 hour ago, BroadstairsR said:

I just thought the other two more significant in midfield.  

What's your measure of "more significant" Broadstairs? Genuine question, just interested to hear. 

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I really struggle with this because it doesn't ring true with me. I still think it's a case of wanting favourites to play (which we all do). I honestly don't see any more or less control in this latest run of wins. Most of our wins have been by one goal all season. And to be fair that one goal was often scored a lot later in those "halcyon days" before McLean.

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18 minutes ago, nutty nigel said:

I honestly don't see any more or less control in this latest run of wins. Most of our wins have been by one goal all season. And to be fair that one goal was often scored a lot later in those "halcyon days" before McLean.

As per my question to Broadstairs, nutty, I'm interested in what your measure of control is. The only measure you offer appears to be margin of victory.

[We've another 12 days before our next game; I'm looking for interesting "topics" --  as DF might say!]

Edited by westcoastcanary
Added bracketed sentence

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It's not really my measure Westy. But my point is that the margins have been fine in most of our wins. Control of course might suggest how long we held the winning lead hence my point.

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5 minutes ago, nutty nigel said:

It's not really my measure Westy. But my point is that the margins have been fine in most of our wins. Control of course might suggest how long we held the winning lead hence my point.

So goals are a (one of several) tell-tale(s) rather than the measure? I agree. That still leaves the question unanswered though.

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1 minute ago, westcoastcanary said:

So goals are a (one of several) tell-tale(s) rather than the measure? I agree. That still leaves the question unanswered though.

It is a not very quantifiable 'eye (or ear if I can only get Radio Norfolk) test' for me. Just a sense we're giving the ball away a bit more, getting caught in possession a bit more and missing the calming 'put a foot on it' type presence in midfield.

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Just to add another factor into the mix, earlier in the season we were known as the late scoring team - our goals coming in the last third of the game. But now we are still scoring goals but they are not concentrated in the same time frame - we seem jut as likely to score in the 2nd minute as the 92nd minute. I couldn't say this was due to some change, though. Just the way it is.

Edited by Rock The Boat

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8 minutes ago, king canary said:

It is a not very quantifiable 'eye (or ear if I can only get Radio Norfolk) test' for me. Just a sense we're giving the ball away a bit more, getting caught in possession a bit more and missing the calming 'put a foot on it' type presence in midfield.

I'd agree with this, it's the way they play. McLean is far more likely to run and get forward with the ball than a Leitner or Vrancic which means he's more likely to lose the ball. Leitner and Vrancic (more recently anyway) are better holding back and playing from deep with composure. I also think that whilst McLean is a good passer of the ball he telegraphs too many of them, possibly a nitpick that somebody will instantly shoot down with statz.

To be fair to McLean though with the long injury he had he's probably just really getting up to 'match sharpness' now. Plenty more to come one would expect.

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