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6 minutes ago, Bill said:

If not a draw then definitely a Sheff Utd win.

Some need to get off their knees.

We want the title so we need the biggest gap between us and second

Four and five points is better than two and 7 points

4 and 5 points gives both a chance to catch us should we slip up, 7 points to  third gives us breathing space, going up as Champions is nice, let's get up first. 

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Posted (edited)

No, it isn’t Bill. The mathematics is clear. It’s a three horse race and the first two places guarantee new income of over P150m. With that we secure the clubs future and won’t need to sell any of our players. Winning the title is a nice little tin cup bonus to put on the mantlepiece. If we lost two games and the other teams won, we’d be behind both teams if they were 4 and 5 points behind us, we’d still be in second with a 1 point advantage if they were 2 and 7 behind. 

Edited by Surfer
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I will be cheering on a Leeds win like they are my second team! I’m confident we will get 3 points at Rotherham so a Leeds win will in reality see us promoted. We won’t lose a 7 point lead with 8 games left

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3 minutes ago, CANARYKING said:

“ see us promoted “” !   Eight games equals a possible twenty four points !

It would take a ridiculous change in our form to lose a 7 point lead over 8 games

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C'mon you blades ..................draw with the dirty Leeds, or beat them.

PL status does not mean securing our future either as the last one season wonder showed. It actually brought us closer to 'bankruptcy' than we have been for a good few decades, or more. We were lumbered with PL contracts that 2 years of parachute money did not cover.

Yes I want to go up, as Champions. We deserve it.

If we can be overhauled by a club 5 points behind with a worse goal difference then that is our fault not anything they have necessarily done.

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Um SU are 4 points behind us with a better GD. 

 

Look our final position is still in our hands and any result Saturday is good for us, but the math says that a Leeds win is best. 

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Surfer said:

Um SU are 4 points behind us with a better GD. 

 

err ............yes

and if they beat Leeds then Leeds will be 5 points behind us with a worse goal difference

as, err ........stated

Edited by Bill

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22 minutes ago, Bill said:

err ............yes

and if they beat Leeds then Leeds will be 5 points behind us with a worse goal difference

as, err ........stated

Yes, assuming we get three points from Rotherham. Fair enough. But if we make that assumption I'd rather have Sheff Utd 7 points behind with a worse goal difference. Lets have Leeds stuff them 3-0 please... 

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1 minute ago, Surfer said:

Yes, assuming we get three points from Rotherham. Fair enough. But if we make that assumption I'd rather have Sheff Utd 7 points behind with a worse goal difference. Lets have Leeds stuff them 3-0 please... 

I’m absolutely baffled why any Norwich fan wouldn’t want anything other than a Leeds win. With our run in and form it would take a catastrophic loss of form to not get promoted. As I’ve said a Leeds win and is beating Rotherham will, for me be the day we can really believe we are going up. 

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We can't afford to let it go down to the last 2 games, Leeds and Blades play 1p5wich.... guaranteed 3 points for both. We're going to need a gap to third. 

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1 hour ago, splendidrush said:

We can't afford to let it go down to the last 2 games, Leeds and Blades play 1p5wich.... guaranteed 3 points for both. We're going to need a gap to third. 

This. No chance they won't max out against the Binners. I'm not looking forward to Villa on the last day if we need something>

 

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Providing we win at Rotheram a Leeds win means Sheff Utd have to get a better result than us over 3 games. I don't think they will do that. 

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15 hours ago, JF said:

I’m absolutely baffled why any Norwich fan wouldn’t want anything other than a Leeds win. With our run in and form it would take a catastrophic loss of form to not get promoted. As I’ve said a Leeds win and is beating Rotherham will, for me be the day we can really believe we are going up. 

Because a draw denies three points to both sides and we can't assume that Sheff U won't go on a subsequent crazily good run and Leeds have some unexpected blips. A draw hedges our bets.

It's still a close call for me - if we draw (or, perish the thought lose) then, like others on here, I'd prefer our rivals to draw too. If we win I wouldn't mind the Leeds win and the scenario you outline. But I don't see why you're baffled by some of us edging towards wanting a Leeds-Sheff draw though!

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17 hours ago, Bill said:

If not a draw then definitely a Sheff Utd win.

Some need to get off their knees.

We want the title so we need the biggest gap between us and second

Four and five points is better than two and 7 points

And if we lose at Rotherham it would be as little as two points from third place. Tough game tomorrow, against a very direct team playing in high winds. Every chance we will win but it's not a gimme. 

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It has to be a Leeds win.  There is no debate needed.  All that matters is promotion.  As already stated a Leeds win and a win for us, puts us 7 points clear of Sheff Utd in 3rd with 8 games remaining.  Look at the average points per game so far this season for us Leeds and Sheff Utd.  Then factor in that Sheff Utd would have to gain 1 point per game over the remaining 8 fixtures to overhaul us.  Look at the respective remaining fixtures. 

We would have to collapse really AND the pressure would be on Sheff Utd not to drop any points they could perhaps afford to draw 2 or lose 1.  That would mean Sheffield A - P8 W7 D0 L1 Pts 21 or  B - P8 W6 D2 L0 Pts 20.

Not allowing for potential goal differences, Scenario A would mean we would have to gain only 13 points or fewer, Scenario B only 12 points or fewer from our remaining 8 fixtures for Sheffield to finish above us (potentially 14 and 13 points depending on goal difference in Sheffield's favour).

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45 minutes ago, Grando said:

Because a draw denies three points to both sides and we can't assume that Sheff U won't go on a subsequent crazily good run and Leeds have some unexpected blips. A draw hedges our bets.

It's still a close call for me - if we draw (or, perish the thought lose) then, like others on here, I'd prefer our rivals to draw too. If we win I wouldn't mind the Leeds win and the scenario you outline. But I don't see why you're baffled by some of us edging towards wanting a Leeds-Sheff draw though!

Because it is illogical when it's all about finishing in the top 2, first and foremost, not being champions

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Most of this seems to be based on the assumption that we will beat Rotherham, but they only have four losses at home all season, pretty solid considering their position, given our defence I think a 2-2 draw is a likely outcome, so hopefully a draw tomorrow between Leeds and Sheff, then a Leeds win is next preferable

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Yep all this “Leeds win is best & that’s undebatable” invalidly assumes that other results (today & beyond) are a given or even likely to be X.

In fact Sheff U have outdone Leeds (and sometimes us) on form for last 6, 8, 10 and 12 game periods. Then to quote the  Skysports analysis article today:

“On paper, Sheffield United have the easiest run-in out, while second-place Leeds have the toughest schedule”

 

So it’s absolutely debatable, and actually a draw is the outcome that caters best for all eventualities 

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On 14/03/2019 at 09:06, dylanisabaddog said:

 It will be a travesty if the top 3 don't get promoted. 

Generally agree with your post, although Alex Neil has got PNE on a hell of a run.  Hardly lost a game since Jan when they were relegation candidates.  Currently honing in on the play offs.  That would be a hell of an achievement and worthy of promotion if he could achieve the impossible again, provided it's not at our expense of course!

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4 minutes ago, GenerationA47 said:

Yep all this “Leeds win is best & that’s undebatable” invalidly assumes that other results (today & beyond) are a given or even likely to be X.

In fact Sheff U have outdone Leeds (and sometimes us) on form for last 6, 8, 10 and 12 game periods. Then to quote the  Skysports analysis article today:

“On paper, Sheffield United have the easiest run-in out, while second-place Leeds have the toughest schedule”

 

So it’s absolutely debatable, and actually a draw is the outcome that caters best for all eventualities 

Absolute rubbish from Sky. Sheffield United have Leeds then Bristol at home and Preston and Birmingham away. There are no easy games in this division (apart from the obvious one) but I wouldn't fancy those games in a pressurised situation 

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Think it's fair to take into account the run ins GA47 but for me it's about how many points we need to get to make it impossible for the third placed team to catch us. If we are 7 points clear of Sheffield with 8 games left then that's quite a buffer. We would need 17 points even if the unlikely happened and they won every one of their remaining games.  

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1 minute ago, dylanisabaddog said:

Absolute rubbish from Sky. Sheffield United have Leeds then Bristol at home and Preston and Birmingham away. There are no easy games in this division (apart from the obvious one) but I wouldn't fancy those games in a pressurised situation 

Agree with that Dylan. Looking at the fixtures I would say Sheffield have the toughest run in. Certainly Hull away who have terrific home form is another tough one for them. As is Sheffield Wednesday for us.

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1 minute ago, Hairy Canary said:

Think it's fair to take into account the run ins GA47 but for me it's about how many points we need to get to make it impossible for the third placed team to catch us. If we are 7 points clear of Sheffield with 8 games left then that's quite a buffer. We would need 17 points even if the unlikely happened and they won every one of their remaining games.  

True, but my main point is that your scenario is obviously hypothetical - it makes assumptions which I’m questioning. Even if people want to disagree with the run-in angle (& nobody said SU have got it easy, just easier), the form tables can’t be ignored. 

 

Someone above’s even said that SU aren’t going to better our results over a 3 game period. Well.. only a few games ago, they’d done just that: WWW vs LWW. 

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1 minute ago, GenerationA47 said:

True, but my main point is that your scenario is obviously hypothetical - it makes assumptions which I’m questioning. Even if people want to disagree with the run-in angle (& nobody said SU have got it easy, just easier), the form tables can’t be ignored. 

 

Someone above’s even said that SU aren’t going to better our results over a 3 game period. Well.. only a few games ago, they’d done just that: WWW vs LWW. 

True too but nobody has better form than us over the whole season and we are the only team to have won our last five games. Taking that into account 7 points seems a big gap for any team to catch up in so few games.

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14 minutes ago, dylanisabaddog said:

Absolute rubbish from Sky. Sheffield United have Leeds then Bristol at home and Preston and Birmingham away. There are no easy games in this division (apart from the obvious one) but I wouldn't fancy those games in a pressurised situation 

Dunno - of course , their opinion may be mistaken . But an interesting contribution from a source with no dog in the fight 

I think I’ve shown the overall question is at least debatable 

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2 minutes ago, Hairy Canary said:

True too but nobody has better form than us over the whole season and we are the only team to have won our last five games. Taking that into account 7 points seems a big gap for any team to catch up in so few games.

But by that token hairy, so does 6. As I said earlier, a draw keeps pressure on both of them. For them to catch that up (accounting for GD) they would need to match our results but winning two that we lost (if that makes sense). It needs them both to outperform us significantly more than they have at any stage of the season so far (bar the first month). Yes it's hedging, but that is the sensible approach to take here, that's why hedge funds make so much money....

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