So then, Wednesday and Blunts - Can Steve Give Us A Brucie Bonus?

[Ian 1,129]

9 minutes ago, Hairy Canary said:

Not sure what the point of predicting future points with opposite fixtures from earlier int he year is WCC. Are you using them as a likely indicator of how many points Leeds & Sheffield will get or as an idea of how tough the respective run ins are? 

As an alternative method, if we win on Friday we will be the only team that has averaged 2 points a game throughout the whole season. Sheffield need to win their next five games to just bump their average to that level. It's not unreasonable to think that similar points per games ratios will continue and therefore somewhere around 87 to 89 will be enough to take second place. Only once in the last 14 seasons has it not been. 

Six wins and a couple of draws (just two defeats) will be enough.   

By my maths, 9 wins and a draw mathematically guarantees us promotion even if one of Leeds/Sheff Utd win every single game remaining this season, so I would not be surprised if you're correct and 89 points will be enough.

Let's be honest, we're in a fantastic position now. Still plenty of opportunity to do a Derby, but would surely be in our position than either Leeds or Sheff Utd.

[ricardo 7,328]

3 hours ago, westcoastcanary said:

But what happened to "It's all done and dusted after 12 games" Ricky? 

My Premier League maxim😁, its remarkably accurate.

I will be going through it again next season when we are back there.

I deliberately made no predictions until the mid point this season so as not to tempt fate.👹👍

[westcoastcanary 173]

47 minutes ago, ricardo said:

My Premier League maxim😁, its remarkably accurate.

I will be going through it again next season when we are back there.

I deliberately made no predictions until the mid point this season so as not to tempt fate.👹👍

Your mix of numbers and superstition would have delighted Sir Thomas Browne, Ricky. Do you cycle to Carrow Road via the Haymarket by any chance? 😉

[ricardo 7,328]

😉

Have a look at the bottom four teams in the Premier today and compare them with the 12 game table.

😀👍http://www.footstats.co.uk/index.cfm?task=formguide

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Sir Thomas Browne, 

He would have been a handy player. He was pretty good at most things he did. 

[ricardo 7,328]

3 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Sir Thomas Browne, 

He would have been a handy player. He was pretty good at most things he did. 

As I remember, that statue shows him with the ball in his hand pondering whether to kick it or throw.

Keelan would have hoofed it miles😀

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

As I remember, that statue shows him with the ball in his hand pondering whether to kick it or throw.

I always thought it was a bag of Caley's waste

[Drazen Muzinic 1,444]

23 minutes ago, ricardo said:

As I remember, that statue shows him with the ball in his hand pondering whether to kick it or throw.

Keelan would have hoofed it miles😀

Very different kit in those days - shorts were much longer - and nice to see Robbie Savage keeping the 17th century hairstyles going.

[westcoastcanary 173]

3 hours ago, Hairy Canary said:

It's not unreasonable to think that similar points per games ratios will continue 

Not unreasonable, but if nothing is going to change to any significant degree, why not start the celebrations now? So there is interest in assessing the magnitude of changes needed and the likelihood of any such happening. If you look at SU's ppg, for instance, it has changed quite dramatically since the halfway point of the season (2.25 ppg from Match 24, including last night's draw, compared with 1.65 ppg for Matches 1-23). If they maintain that improved form they will finish with 89 or 90 points. People point to the difficult games facing them, and right enough, if you look at their results in the corresponding earlier fixtures, their ppg was lower even than their season average. The same ppg in the remaining 11 fixtures would see them finish on 81! So was that poor run of results down to factors which have since been corrected or was it a fair reflection of their actual strength/quality? 

In our case it is in reverse. Matches 1-23, ppg 2.04; matches 24--35, ppp 1.83. If we continue with that lower ppg over the next 11 matches we will finish with 89. And then there's Leeds .........

[Ian 1,129]

Why compare the first 23 games with the next 12 games, without factoring in the relevant opponents faced within the 12 game period? Isn't it possible we've played most of the tough opponents from the first 23, within those 12 games?

Anyone would think you like to be contrary for the sake of it.

[Ian 1,129]

As an example, of the 12 opponents we have already faced twice, for the first round of matches we took a total of 19 points - averaging 1.58 points per game. For the second round of matches, we took a total of 22 points - averaging 1.83 points per game. This is an improvement of around 16%.

Of the 11 teams we have left to play, we took 28 points from a possible 33 the first-time around, winning 9 and drawing 1 with only a strange loss against Stoke blighting our copybook. That's an average of 2.55 points per game. Therefore, by your logic westcoast, factoring in our 16% improvement I fully expect us to take at least 31 points from the remaining matches, for a final total of around 101 points. 😂

Is that how stats is done?

Alternatively, can we all just agree that on paper we seem to have a favourable run-in, and that given our earlier results against our remaining opponents, it would be difficult to imagine a better one?

Of course there are numerous other factors to take into consideration, and absolutely no guarantees that we will succeed in the reverse fixtures, but it's safe to say that we have acquitted ourselves well already this season and truly have the capability of finishing the job over the next 11 games. 

[Surfer 1,547]

Other factors are confidence, weather and squad strength. Some teams get multiple serious injuries, most teams at the top don’t suffer that fate. We've had some, but they have been in areas we had cover. The weather is now getting better and that will suite teams that play on the deck too. And then most teams at the top get better as the season progresses (Derby excepted, Leeds maybe an exception too) So unless we have a major injury blow, I think it is fair to project our current PPG and maybe even raise it a little. If the teams below us can better that then I tip my hat to them. 

[westcoastcanary 173]

@Ian

Maybe you would like to take the context of my post into account? I was replying to Hairy, and my first and second sentences  explain what followed.

As for: "Therefore, by your logic westcoast, factoring in our 16% improvement I fully expect us to take at least 31 points from the remaining matches, for a final total of around 101 points", nowhere in my post do I predict any particular outcome; you seem not to have noticed the "if" at the beginning of the sentences. And as for not factoring in the teams faced, that is only one of several factors that might be relevant, which I collectively acknowledge in asking this question about SU: "So was that poor run of results down to factors which have since been corrected or was it a fair reflection of their actual strength/quality?" 

[Ian 1,129]

2 hours ago, westcoastcanary said:

@Ian

Maybe you would like to take the context of my post into account? I was replying to Hairy, and my first and second sentences  explain what followed.

As for: "Therefore, by your logic westcoast, factoring in our 16% improvement I fully expect us to take at least 31 points from the remaining matches, for a final total of around 101 points", nowhere in my post do I predict any particular outcome; you seem not to have noticed the "if" at the beginning of the sentences. And as for not factoring in the teams faced, that is only one of several factors that might be relevant, which I collectively acknowledge in asking this question about SU: "So was that poor run of results down to factors which have since been corrected or was it a fair reflection of their actual strength/quality?" 

Yes, you may have noticed I was being facetious and trying to point out your selective use of statistics to prove a pre-determined point you wish to make. Never mind, let's see how it pans out eh?

[splendidrush 698]

5 hours ago, Drazen Muzinic said:

 

I thought it was Benjamin Bloom, having been hit on the head by a piece of fallen masonry off the roof of the Sir Bobby Robson Stand. 

[Drazen Muzinic 1,444]

15 minutes ago, splendidrush said:

I thought it was Benjamin Bloom, having been hit on the head by a piece of fallen masonry off the roof of the Sir Bobby Robson Stand. 

I must admit I didn't know who Benjamin Bloom was! 😳

A quick Wiki tells me he is a musician and yet another Binner born after they last won a 'glorious' trophy.

I doubt that means he is in a minority though!

[westcoastcanary 173]

18 minutes ago, Ian said:

Yes, you may have noticed I was being facetious and trying to point out your selective use of statistics to prove a pre-determined point you wish to make. Never mind, let's see how it pans out eh?

Er, exactly what point was I "trying to prove"? And since when did "illustrate" become a synonym of "prove"? You clearly haven't understood my post, otherwise you would have realised your final sentence is irrelevant.

[nutty nigel 7,506]

19 minutes ago, Drazen Muzinic said:

I must admit I didn't know who Benjamin Bloom was! 😳

A quick Wiki tells me he is a musician and yet another Binner born after they last won a 'glorious' trophy.

I doubt that means he is in a minority though!

He has a championship YouTube channel and every week he has to start with Norwich and end with Ipswich. 🙃

[Drazen Muzinic 1,444]

1 minute ago, nutty nigel said:

He has a championship YouTube channel and every week he has to start with Norwich and end with Ipswich. 🙃

Thanks NN - will look out for it - if it's worth it!

[nutty nigel 7,506]

 

[Van wink 2,994]

7 hours ago, Drazen Muzinic said:

Very different kit in those days - shorts were much longer - and nice to see Robbie Savage keeping the 17th century hairstyles going.

Bit concerned that he seems to have an extra finger

[ricardo 7,328]

22 minutes ago, nutty nigel said:

 

Been watching his stuff for a while. Arch 1p5wich fan but a very decent and fair guy. It's a good podcast and we'll worth a look.

[nutty nigel 7,506]

I watch it Rickyyy. I couldn't be fair like him. He has already said he'd still do championship next season but I guess he'll still do some binner reports.

He's not as good as you Rickyyyy. We like your match reports. But he does get his out quicker live from his car. While we have to wait for you to pedal home, take off those cycle clips and fire up the typewriter... 

[Daz Sparks 1,140]

20 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Been watching his stuff for a while. Arch 1p5wich fan but a very decent and fair guy. It's a good podcast and we'll worth a look.

A balanced and reasoned review, thanks for this Ricardo.

[ricardo 7,328]

10 hours ago, nutty nigel said:

I watch it Rickyyy. I couldn't be fair like him. He has already said he'd still do championship next season but I guess he'll still do some binner reports.

He's not as good as you Rickyyyy. We like your match reports. But he does get his out quicker live from his car. While we have to wait for you to pedal home, take off those cycle clips and fire up the typewriter... 

Perhaps I should get a bike cam Nutty🚵‍😀