Defensive Stats

[Kanadyan Kanary 121]

Based on Championship games only and based on each player, playing for 90 minutes in a central defensive role, my calculations reveal the following stats.  Note: Godfrey has been used at LB on 2 occasions:

• Zimmerman (27 games) Goals for 56, against 29 - a positive return of +27, based on the number of games = a factor of +1
• Godfrey (12 games) Goals 29-15 - return = +14, factor +1.167
• Klose (22 games) Goals 41-29 - return = +12, factor +0.545
• Hanley (6 games) Goal 9-12 - return = -3, factor -0.5

In terms of pairings:

• Klose/Hanley (5 games) Goals 8-11, return = - 3, factor -0.6
• Klose/Zimmerman (16 games) Goals 30-15, return = +15, factor +0.9375
• Klose/Godfrey (1 game) Goals 3-3, return = 0, factor 0
• Zimmerman/Godfrey (11 games) Goals 26-12, return = +14,, factor +1.27

When looking at goals conceded, there are no positive returns but Zimmerman has conceded the least based on number of games, with Godfrey narrowly second and Klose third:

• Klose: 29 for 22 games = 0.76
• Zimmerman: 29 for 27 games = 0.93
• Godfrey: 15 from 12 games = 0.8
• Hanley: 12 from 6 games = 0.5

Of course, there are a number of other factors that can come into play but based on these stats, it's understandable why Farke is sticking with the Zimmerman/Godfrey defensive pairing.

[cornish sam 944]

I think when you also bring distribution into play you see even more evidence for the current pairing.

[Petriix 2,834]

Defenders are extremely hard to analyse statistically. The goals conceded can be as a result of poor midfield play (lack of cover or tracking runs etc.), attacking skill, defender error, lucky deflection, poor goalkeeping etc. Likewise, clean sheets can be down to luck or poor attacking play rather than defensive ability. A better measure would be a count of defensive errors, times caught out of position, duels lost, dangerous misplaced passes etc..

Defenders and goalkeepers are remembered for the goals they concede rather than the ones they stop. Zimmerman had a bit of a mare at the end of the Derby game (arguably because he was left horribly exposed) and let Billy Sharp have a free header. However, he is arguably one of the best defenders in the league, especially when you consider the pivotal role he plays in our system: receiving the ball under pressure in the defensive third or picking passes into midfield against a team sitting deep.

Godfrey is developing at a rapid pace. I was worried when Klose got injured, but now I would not be bringing him back into the starting 11 barring an injury or sudden loss of form. It is an excellent position to be in.

[westcoastcanary 173]

@KK

Have you got a list of games handy for each of the four, and each of the pairings? If so, and you care to PM me the list, I could do another comparison based on expected goals against (xGa).

[Daz Sparks 1,148]

6 hours ago, westcoastcanary said:

@KK

Have you got a list of games handy for each of the four, and each of the pairings? If so, and you care to PM me the list, I could do another comparison based on expected goals against (xGa).

Oh goodie! I love the debate on here about expected anythings 😜

 

[Aggy 752]

8 hours ago, Petriix said:

Defenders are extremely hard to analyse statistically. The goals conceded can be as a result of poor midfield play (lack of cover or tracking runs etc.), attacking skill, defender error, lucky deflection, poor goalkeeping etc. Likewise, clean sheets can be down to luck or poor attacking play rather than defensive ability. A better measure would be a count of defensive errors, times caught out of position, duels lost, dangerous misplaced passes etc..

Defenders and goalkeepers are remembered for the goals they concede rather than the ones they stop. Zimmerman had a bit of a mare at the end of the Derby game (arguably because he was left horribly exposed) and let Billy Sharp have a free header. However, he is arguably one of the best defenders in the league, especially when you consider the pivotal role he plays in our system: receiving the ball under pressure in the defensive third or picking passes into midfield against a team sitting deep.

Godfrey is developing at a rapid pace. I was worried when Klose got injured, but now I would not be bringing him back into the starting 11 barring an injury or sudden loss of form. It is an excellent position to be in.

I’d argue defenders are easier to analyse statistically than midfielders. How do you use statistics to analyse midfielders? Assists? Goals? Pass percentage? Key passes? Key interceptions?

Defenders’ stats will be impacted by how good the midfield in front of them is, yes. But if a midfielder is playing top drawer balls into the box only for a donkey striker to keep missing, he won’t have as many assists as someone passing to Harry Kane. If the other players in the team don’t move off the ball, his successful passes (or key passes) ratio might be lower than someone with teammates who move. 

Stats only ever tell part of the story.

I think our best partnership is probably Klose and Godfrey but Zimmerman deserves to be in at the moment I would say.

[westcoastcanary 173]

1 hour ago, Daz Sparks said:

Oh goodie! I love the debate on here about expected anythings 😜

 

 Just wait 'til you see my end of season stats on expected reactions to my posts.  You're well in the running for a top six finish Daz, but Splendid Rush is clear favourite for the title .............. 😉

[Daz Sparks 1,148]

1 minute ago, westcoastcanary said:

 Just wait 'til you see my end of season stats on expected reactions to my posts.  You're well in the running for a top six finish Daz, but Splendid Rush is clear favourite for the title .............. 😉

I'll take top 6, mid-table is more my style 😉

[splendidrush 699]

3 minutes ago, westcoastcanary said:

 Just wait 'til you see my end of season stats on expected reactions to my posts.  You're well in the running for a top six finish Daz, but Splendid Rush is clear favourite for the title .............. 😉

Consistency is the key, westcoast. I'm off to book a bus for the victory parade. 😉

[Kanadyan Kanary 121]

8 hours ago, westcoastcanary said:

@KK

Have you got a list of games handy for each of the four, and each of the pairings? If so, and you care to PM me the list, I could do another comparison based on expected goals against (xGa).

Have sent you PM.