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Making Plans

Play-off place in the bag?

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Derby's defeat tonight means they are now 15 points behind us.

Even though they have a game in hand I can't see them winning 5 games while we lose 5 with only 12 games to go.

And that would be even tougher for anyone below Derby.

 

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If we can't secure a playoff place from here (usually 75 ish points gets you one)...it would represent some collapse, especially with our run in....it is shaping up to be a tough looking set of playoffs though for whichever 4 teams is in it.

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A play off place has been pretty much nailed on for a while now.

Unfortunately you still only secure the same if you finish third a point behind an automatic spout...10 points above 6th spot.

An automatic spot has been averaged out at 87 (now 86) points for some weeks now. We are capable of six more wins and three draws out of the next 12 games. The games in red are those I think we will (and should) win, which would indicate an automatic spot.

Five other games to secure against dropped points,  and a hit at the top spot.

Sat Mar 2 Millwall A      
Fri Mar 8 Swansea City (7.45pm) H 2185374_1532348177180.jpg    
Wed Mar13  Hull City (7.45pm) H 2185374_1532348177180.jpg    
Sat Mar 16 Rotherham United A      
Sat Mar 30 Middlesbrough (5.30pm) A 2185374_1532348177180.jpg    
Sat Apr 6 Queens Park Rangers H      
Tue Apr 9 Reading (7.45pm) H      
Sat Apr 13 Wigan Athletic A      
Fri Apr 19 Sheffield Wednesday H      
Mon Apr 22 Stoke City A      
Sat Apr 27 Blackburn Rovers H      
Sun May 5 Aston Villa (12.30pm) A

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Can we now confirm that Derby have flattered to deceive under FL? They're down to 7th with Forest on their tails, Bristol City are way ahead and it's going to take a huge effort to get that 6th place now. Back to the op, they aren't catching us, 

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I would have us down for a win against the Hoops too. They have not shown too much of late and on our patch we should dominate, really.

Playoffs are going to be insanely tough this year. I also don't fancy our record against much of the top 6 opposition (especially if Derby somehow squeak in over Bristol). 

 

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Given the improvement over the season, I'd be reasonably confident should we end up in the playoffs, but then I'm reasonably confident we'll be in an auto spot.

To sum up, I'm reasonably confident. Full stop.

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39 minutes ago, wcorkcanary said:

Given the improvement over the season, I'd be reasonably confident should we end up in the playoffs, but then I'm reasonably confident we'll be in an auto spot.

To sum up, I'm reasonably confident. Full stop.

Unless it ends in the play off final and a penalty shoot out! 

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We need eight wins from the remaining 12 games to get to 90 points. Personally, I'm confident that we can do that. Blades denied three to Baggies, which puts them even further out of it and Leeds and Sheffield still have to face each other so one or both of those is guaranteed to lose points there. 

So long as the team stick to fighting every game one at a time, play offs are nailed on now in my view and missing out on automatic promotion would represent a bit of a collapse in itself at this point. 

Edited by littleyellowbirdie

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I doubt the coach will be letting up on the players. Yes we know everyone must be thinking the play offs are stitched on but I doubt there will be talk of it at Colney.

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4 hours ago, SwindonCanary said:

I now hope all the top teams Bristol City play they now win.

eh ?

  • Sad 1

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1 minute ago, keelansgrandad said:

I doubt the coach will be letting up on the players. Yes we know everyone must be thinking the play offs are stitched on but I doubt there will be talk of it at Colney.

There will be no let up now, just as there hasn't been since Sept.

City will easily make the play offs, but having come this far to end up in the play offs will be seen as a massive failure. We are not fighting around 6th/7th or 8th to try and secure one of the four places. We are top and it is in our hands where we finish.

The last 12 games has us playing against only three teams who are in the top half of the table - with games against Rotherham, Millwall, Reading and Wigan.

And before the bleating starts I am not claiming they, or others are EASY games. Just that they are more likely to be wins than were they to be games against top six clubs

We can, and we will, do it.

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Bill : eh? 

I.e. “I hope Bristol now beat all the other top six teams they still have to play’ 

👍SC

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Fivethirtyeight.com have us as only a 35% chance of making the playoffs; obviously that's because we have around a 60% chance of finishing in the top two and probably around 33% chance of winning the playoffs if we're in them (33% * 35% + 60% = 72% chance of promotion, or something like that). So something like a 5% chance of finishing lower than 6th.

image.png.5c5c86f6b76da9f0eb7ece561eaad4e1.png

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