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Did a quick analysis (well actually it took a little time) of who has who to play but focused on who plays each other in the Top 7, who has to play teams in the bottom 5 and who has a nerve jangling local ‘Derby’ to play.

Makes for interesting reading:

Leeds have 3 teams left to play in the Top 7, 4 teams left to play in the bottom 5 and 1 local derby left to play.

Norwich have 2 teams left to play in the Top 7, 4 teams left to play in the bottom 5 and no derby left to play.

Sheff Utd have 3 teams to play in the Top 7, 2 teams left to play in the bottom 5 and 1 derby left.

WBA have 3 teams to play in the Top 7, 2 teams left to play in the bottom 5 and 2 derbies left.

Bristol City have 6 teams to play in the Top 7, 2 teams left to play in bottom 5 and no derbies.

Middlesborough have 2 teams to play in Top 7, 2 teams left to play in bottom 5 and no derbies.

Derby have 1 team to play Top 7, 1 team in the bottom 5 and 1 derby to play.

Top 7 and bottom 5 as per today.

 

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Playing teams near the bottom can throw up strange results near the end of the season because they can be scrapping for points or when they've been relegated, the pressure can be off and they can suddenly start to play well.  But obv we can't expect any favours from the scum when they're playing our rivals at the end of the season.

 

Overall our run in is as good as you could expect it to be over 14 games in the Championship.  If we can get a win tomorrow,  we're back on course.

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I prefer to look at the clashes where one side will drop points such as.

Villa v WBA

Norwich v Bristol City

WBA v Sheff. Utd.

Leeds v WBA

Villa v Derby

Bristol City v Leeds

Leeds v Sheff. Utd.

Villa v Middlesb'oro

Sheff. Utd. v Bristol City

Middlesb'oro v Norwich

Middlesb'oro v Bristol City

Bristol City v Derby

 

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35 minutes ago, SwindonCanary said:

I prefer to look at the clashes where one side will drop points such as.

Villa v WBA

Norwich v Bristol City

WBA v Sheff. Utd.

Leeds v WBA

Villa v Derby

Bristol City v Leeds

Leeds v Sheff. Utd.

Villa v Middlesb'oro

Sheff. Utd. v Bristol City

Middlesb'oro v Norwich

Middlesb'oro v Bristol City

Bristol City v Derby

 

So, from this, does this mean you still view Villa as a threat to the top 2? They’re a long way back now and need a great run to even get close to sixth place...

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I think we can discount them for the top 2 but I suspect they’ll have a part to play in mixing it up with the results.

As I suspect will be anyone who has to to go Preston or Hull or Birmingham.

Didnt include them in my look but they may have a say on who goes up etc.

Going to be an interesting remainder to the season that’s for sure.

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Going to be an interesting remainder to the season that’s for sure.

 

Very true, I think it could be the most exciting finish for the Championship ever.

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Before the Ipswich game I looked at our results in our first meetings with the 16 teams we were still to play. Basically those fixtures were the ones that took us from 17th in the table to the automatic places. Those 16 matches netted us 39 points, a mouth-watering 2.4 ppg. Our points total before the derby game was 57, meaning that if we were to match those first meeting results in the return fixtures we would finish on 96 points and almost certainly in top place. 

The position after the Preston game is that we are down 1 point (+2 points from the derby game, -3 points from Preston), having taken 4 points from six in our first meetings with those two clubs. So if, from the remaining 14 games, we match the points gained in the earlier meetings, we will finish with 95 points and almost certainly .....etc.

The moral is, don't worry about other teams; all that matters is our results. If and when we have dropped another 8 points on our first meeting results, a bit of concern might be justified if the target is automatic promotion.  

PS  We took 4 points from 6 in the earlier games against our next two opponents, Bolton and Bristol. Wait for the results and then do the math!

Edited by westcoastcanary
Added the final paragraph
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I think our injuries are more of a concern than our run in. A week can be a long time and suddenly, bereft of several in midfield, especially in that more defensive position, I worry a little. 

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21 minutes ago, Dean Coneys boots said:

I think our injuries are more of a concern than our run in. A week can be a long time and suddenly, bereft of several in midfield, especially in that more defensive position, I worry a little. 

We are vulnerable, but so are all of our main rivals.

Defensively poor from set plays (especially corners) and penalty missing being the most obvious areas of weakness, but now a minor injury crisis with crucial players out of the equation is adding to the problems.

However, all team seem to be piling  up injuries. We have the likes of Klus, Leitner and Vrancic hopefully not far away. Kenny McClean could well blossom and Cantwell is no mug. Even Passlack who came with rave reviews could shine. 

Continuing to look for the positives we still have that potent attacking force intact and also our young defence.

 

A win away today will do wonders for our prospects and we should be getting into full strength for the rest of the season after this.

Repeat,our rivals are not short of injuries or problems. None of them.

 

 

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Looking at future fixtures is all well and good I also did the analysis prior to Leeds with the exception of Bristol C who weren't in the picture then but won 10 games on trot but only played the minnows.  However a poor result today after Wednesday first half debacle would seriously affect my hopes for automatic even if you forget stats about being top after last Sunday and at Christmas.  Injuries could scupper progress especially reverse against relegation candidates and play off contenders in next two.

Hope my pessimism is misplaced and optimism returns after today can't help being concerned.  

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34 minutes ago, pete said:

 

Hope my pessimism is misplaced and optimism returns after today can't help being concerned.  

Think positive and hope for the best. There is still work to be done and everyone will drop points somewhere.👍

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Track back to August ans I doubt any of us would have predicted we would be in this position with under a third of the season to go.

i believe we can do i, in fact I would go as far as to say we will (automatic)

What has been heartening is seeing players come in a being up to speed. Who would have Aarons and Godfrey as regulars. Vrancic and Steiperman looked well below standard last season. Trybull seemed to have faded after a bright start. Yet here they are all guns blazing, just as will be those who are called on to step up

Cometh the hour, cometh the men.

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Bristol City potentially have a huge influence on final positions - playing all the top teams - Lets hope we can get 3 points and the rest of the group struggle

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Having looked at the remaining fixtures of the current top four I have the final points totals as:

Leeds United            93

Norwich City             85

Sheffield United       85

West Bromwich.      84

So it would come down to GD between us and the Blades. We may come to rue those six missed penalties. Of course the results over these games could easily throw up some surprises but seems to confirm it will be one of the tightest run ins of recent times.

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19 hours ago, westcoastcanary said:

PS  We took 4 points from 6 in the earlier games against our next two opponents, Bolton and Bristol. Wait for the results and then do the math!

That's 3 of the 4 points matched. Still just 1 point down (from the loss to Preston). If we were to beat Bristol City we'd be 1 point up ............. :classic_ohmy:

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