lake district canary 4,530 Posted February 15, 2019 It's all gobblydegook. Imo the more refined and "improved" stats are, the less likely they are to make any sense in the grander scheme of things. Football is glorious in it's unpredictability and the more coaches and statisticians try and pin it down to percentages and formulae, the less human it becomes. So down with stats! Throw away your data/digitilisation/computerspeak and ipads and use your eyes and basic intelligence to sort out what is good football. A cross leading to a goal by whoever happens to be there is less good football than a sublime bit of striking from a top player in form. Long live spontaneity and human frailty! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
It's Character Forming 1,160 Posted February 15, 2019 That's interesting WCC, thanks. I guess it makes sense to say that a Champs striker vs a Champs goalkeeper would cancel out to give a similar chance of scoring from the same position as in the Prem, it's a bit rough & ready but you can see the logic for it. Overall I would expect the team that is top of the league to out-perform its xG calculation, is that what you normally see ? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
westcoastcanary 173 Posted February 15, 2019 1 minute ago, It's Character Forming said: Overall I would expect the team that is top of the league to out-perform its xG calculation, is that what you normally see ? I've been trying to get data on that since you first asked the question. My guess is probably yes, but not to anything like the extent that we currently are. Put it like this: what you might expect is that the best teams in the league rise to the top because they consistently create the best chances (create more high xG chances), have strikers who routinely take those chances (GF matches xG), and defend better (limit opponents to few high xG chances with GA matching xGa). Of course, a team which outperforms in one of those ways can claim a higher league position, which is what many people think we are currently doing. As Bethnal pointed out some time ago, last season Ipswich topped the league for a period at the start of the season purely by dint of GF outperforming their xG by a margin similar to our current margin; the only trouble was they couldn't sustain it. Tony Pulis's success as a manager is built on having teams who routinely outperform in defensive terms. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bethnal Yellow and Green 1,557 Posted February 15, 2019 It’s not everyone in the league, but here is a slice of the top 4. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
It's Character Forming 1,160 Posted February 15, 2019 Ok that’s interesting and I’ll have a proper look later. i would start from the perspective that the top teams have strikers who are much more clinical and would be well above the average xG in converting chances, as well as creating more chances. I’m thinking Man City here rather than Norwich City. I don’t see why they’d create more chances but be close to average in turning them into goals. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
westcoastcanary 173 Posted February 15, 2019 (edited) 5 hours ago, Bethnal Yellow and Green said: It’s not everyone in the league, but here is a slice of the top 4. Thanks Bethnal. That graphic of goals over expected goals needs to be looked at in conjunction with Ben Mayhew's latest E-Ratings on Experimental 361, which show Leeds and Sheffield Utd, the two with the less striking (sic) discrepancy between GF and xG compared to ourselves and WBA, firmly entrenched at the top both offensively and defensively. We have actually dropped a place in the E-Ratings despite claiming top spot in the GF over xG table. Edited February 15, 2019 by westcoastcanary Typo Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
westcoastcanary 173 Posted February 15, 2019 3 hours ago, lake district canary said: A cross leading to a goal by whoever happens to be there As if a beautiful defence neutralising cross delivered to a striker in exactly the place to meet it, having made space for himself by clever movement off his marker, isn't a sublime bit of football? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
It's Character Forming 1,160 Posted February 15, 2019 Ahhh - Listen for the color of the sky. Look for the sound of the hummingbird’s wings. Search the air for the perfume of ice, on a hot summer’s day. If you have found these things, you will know.... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
lake district canary 4,530 Posted February 15, 2019 Exquisiteness takes many forms in football as in anything, but the more you reduce it to it's component parts and try to control it, the less exquisite it becomes....... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
westcoastcanary 173 Posted February 15, 2019 40 minutes ago, lake district canary said: Exquisiteness takes many forms in football as in anything, but the more you reduce it to it's component parts and try to control it, the less exquisite it becomes....... On the contrary, someone who not only sees but understands a rainbow knows more exquisiteness than one who merely sees. Or generalised, how much you see depends on how much you know. And talking of rainbows reminds me of the story of the guy who, having declared that he had no need of understanding the science of what his eyes could tell him, on having it pointed out that there was a rainbow in front of him which he hadn't noticed, asked where his glasses were ............. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nutty nigel 7,506 Posted February 16, 2019 I expected Pukki to score today 🙃 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
It's Character Forming 1,160 Posted February 16, 2019 5 hours ago, nutty nigel said: I expected Pukki to score today 🙃 lol he’ll be disappointed he didn’t get a hat trick especially missing that one when through on the keeper Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sonyc 5,481 Posted February 16, 2019 And he was only expected to score once today! (Sorry ...couldn't resist commenting on this xG stuff) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
westcoastcanary 173 Posted February 17, 2019 (edited) 5 hours ago, sonyc said: And he was only expected to score once today! (Sorry ...couldn't resist commenting on this xG stuff) Sorry, can't resist pointing this out sonyc, but No! Haven't yet seen the xGs for today's match, but whatever they are, xG always refers to an average striker; it's not a value for a specific striker, whether it be Sergio Aguero, Teemu Pukki or Clayton Donaldson. 😉 Edited February 17, 2019 by westcoastcanary Clarified last sentence. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
westcoastcanary 173 Posted February 17, 2019 On 15/02/2019 at 10:28, It's Character Forming said: Ok that’s interesting and I’ll have a proper look later. i would start from the perspective that the top teams have strikers who are much more clinical and would be well above the average xG in converting chances, as well as creating more chances. I’m thinking Man City here rather than Norwich City. I don’t see why they’d create more chances but be close to average in turning them into goals. I haven't got the latest (post Bolton) figure for our goals over expected goals, but for comparison here are the figures for the top three teams in the EPL as of February 11th (courtesy of understat.com): Man City: GF 74, xG 67.78, goals over xG 6.22 (8.4%) Liverpool: GF 59, xG 54.98, goals over xG 4.02 (6.8%) Tottenham: GF 54, xG 45.48 goals over xG 8.54 (15.81) Norwich (post Ipswich): GF 60, xG 46.9, goals over xG 13.1 (21.8%) Like Man City and Liverpool, both Leeds and Sheffield Utd have outscored their xGs but, also like them, only by much smaller margins. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
It's Character Forming 1,160 Posted February 17, 2019 Really interesting, if you adjust our xG to reflect the fact that it will include 0.75 expected goal per penalty when we’ve not delivered quite that % 🤔, the disparity is even more marked. For me the difference is probably too great to be explained by luck or Pukki being on a hot streak of form. I guess the rest of the season will give a good indication. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Crabbycanary3 994 Posted February 17, 2019 Good grief, this is the first time I have read through this thread It seems people want to over complicate the World sometimes. So, when a player scores, will we eventually, as fans, have to temper our celebrations, according to the level of chance that the goal came from? A 'harder' chance means a higher level of celebration, and if it is a tap in, do we all do a collective 'Meh'? These stats create talking points but how exactly do they influence a game? Is it just to relieve 'pressure' from a player, in as much as they would not be admonished because they were not 'expected' to convert a particular chance? I'll let those guys rack up the analysis, I am going outside to enjoy the sunshine 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sonyc 5,481 Posted February 17, 2019 9 hours ago, westcoastcanary said: Sorry, can't resist pointing this out sonyc, but No! Haven't yet seen the xGs for today's match, but whatever they are, xG always refers to an average striker; it's not a value for a specific striker, whether it be Sergio Aguero, Teemu Pukki or Clayton Donaldson. 😉 It was just a joke WCC. I had no idea what he was expected to do, honestly. But I enjoyed his finishing yesterday (and general play) very much. He always delivers as a player. I go to matches now expecting a win on many occasions and always know I will see a competitive match and a committed performance from every single player. I just cannot easily recall a time when I saw that so clearly ....this team really fight and don't give up. And I've watched lots of Norwich teams. It's an honour to watch and be a supporter at this time. It's precious too. Possibly those 'false' xG figures indicate this thing that is something special? It's the romantic side of me perhaps that senses the fight, the quality, the occasions and moments that this team gives me that matters most. It's why particularly I cannot be put off by the maths (and that your sharp analysis shows somehow we are fighting above our weight and your well-argued confidence in your "4th place for us" comment). I suppose it's one of those art v science debates. I've always been in the former camp (tho happy to be informed by the latter). I feel I'm seeing a top 2 team. I've watched so many teams in this position before and there is certainly something magical. It's why now I trust this team to do it. Should they not, what a season they've provided in drama and entertainment. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
It's Character Forming 1,160 Posted February 17, 2019 1 hour ago, Crabbycanary3 said: Good grief, this is the first time I have read through this thread It seems people want to over complicate the World sometimes. So, when a player scores, will we eventually, as fans, have to temper our celebrations, according to the level of chance that the goal came from? A 'harder' chance means a higher level of celebration, and if it is a tap in, do we all do a collective 'Meh'? These stats create talking points but how exactly do they influence a game? Is it just to relieve 'pressure' from a player, in as much as they would not be admonished because they were not 'expected' to convert a particular chance? I'll let those guys rack up the analysis, I am going outside to enjoy the sunshine It’s a fair point CC. I guess from the clubs’ perspective, if you have Player A who scores 2 goals in a game for you and Player B scores 1 in another, but A has loads of great chances while B had a few difficult chances, who’s done better? The xG stat is trying to give a more objective measure of how well the team/individual has done in converting chances into goal, rather than just relying on “shots on target” which as we know is rubbish because it equates a tame shot that’s trickled through to the keeper with no attackers nearby, to a forward having the chance to blast it from 6 yards out. xG tries to assess how difficult a given chance is , by factoring in where it was hit from and so on, to give a % value for the likelihood of scoring per chance. So in my example it means the club can say, rather than Player A having loads of good chances which is pretty subjective, the xG stat tries to be more objective so might have a value for him of say 2.8 goals which makes his 2 goals look poor whereas player B might have an xG of just 0.3 so scoring 1 is a good return. my feeling is that the stats are still relatively primitive in the amount of real world information that is fed in to create the measure of how good a given chance was. But given the amounts of money in modern football I think clubs will continue to invest in the tech because it helps them assess player performance better. So we’re going to see more of this. the next question, where a player like Pukki is consistently out performing his xG stat as now, is why? Which for me is when the debate starts to get interesting because it ties in with the question of why he’s doing so well this season.... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Thirsty Lizard 3,154 Posted February 17, 2019 This stuff about Teemu Pukki and his expected goals is all very well - but what I really want to know is what was Ade Akinbiyi's XG rating throughout his career? I think we should be told. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
westcoastcanary 173 Posted February 17, 2019 6 hours ago, Crabbycanary3 said: It seems people want to over complicate the World sometimes. Do you think, for instance, the theory of light, complicates the world Crabby? Or does it reveal a bit of the complexity of the world your eyes don't reveal to you? You and Lakey remind me of those 17th century critics of Newton's theory of light and colour who claimed the great man was "removing colour from God's creation" (as though, if what Newton said were true, grass couldn't be green any longer nor a cloudless sky blue)! 6 hours ago, Crabbycanary3 said: These stats create talking points but how exactly do they influence a game? Well, one way they influence a game is that, quite possibly right now, DF and his analytics staff will be poring over Bristol City's stats in the process of tweaking our team's preparation for next Saturday and taking the decisions as to who the starting eleven will be etc. Furthermore, Stuart Webber and his recruitment team will also have been poring over them continuously as they identify their targets for the summer transfer window in the different scenarios that may be realised. I'd be very surprised if the extent of our current dependence on Teemu Pukki isn't a real concern for the team management. Anyone sitting in the main stand behind the dugout had a close up of DF's hands on the touchline recently? Does he have his fingers permanently crossed by any chance? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Crabbycanary3 994 Posted February 17, 2019 Yes, that's the way to do it westcoast, compare the theory of light to football. You know exactly what I was getting at, you are not daft. Too many variables/possibles and maybes, to make all that anything more than 'hopeful' as opposed to definitive. There is nothing wrong in preparation, but after a while, you have to realize the sun is shining Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
littleyellowbirdie 2,500 Posted February 17, 2019 (edited) On 13/02/2019 at 17:50, Michael Starr said: I wonder this too, but part of it, I think, is the quality of the delivery. Buendia was immense with his balls into the box vs Ipswich. The delivery was exceptional, but also, it's gotta be a confidence thing too. His goalscoring as upped to another level for Finland since joining Norwich. Perhaps this is also down to fitness and training levels. Yes, and I'd go a bit further and say that's very much the sort of striker he is: not to say he doesn't pitch in elsewhere, but his focus as a number nine is much more about looking to receive balls to put it in the net as opposed to the sort of number 9 that holds the ball up for other players to come up and put it away. His high goal count is partly he's good at putting it away and the rest of the team is good at getting the ball to him, as you say, when he has got himself in a good position to score. Edited February 17, 2019 by littleyellowbirdie Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
westcoastcanary 173 Posted February 17, 2019 5 hours ago, sonyc said: I suppose it's one of those art v science debates. I've always been in the former camp (tho happy to be informed by the latter). 👍 Nice post sonyc. As I keep saying, it is possible to defy gravity for a while before you come down to earth. The question is whether you can do it for long enough to get to the hoped for landing place. Re. arts v sciences, that debate is characterised by a series of false dichotomies, for example the idea of science as not involving imagination. Truth is, great science (including maths) requires every bit as powerful an imagination as any great work of art or literature. And in both cases, what each seeks to imagine is how things really are. Anyway, it's Sunday morning here in sunny Los Angeles. The sky is cloudless, and blue, and the recent rain has temporarily clothed the Santa Monica mountains in green. The bougainvillea's are in bloom and still plenty of roses of all hues. I'm off for an early brunch in Malibu; I think I'll take my copy of Newton's theory of light and colour with me and marvel at the intricacies of nature ....... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
westcoastcanary 173 Posted February 17, 2019 Shouldn't we move on now? Maybe start a thread entitled "Can Plucky Underdogs Norwich Upset the Odds against Bristol City?". After all, we didn't against Preston .......... 😉 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Thirsty Lizard 3,154 Posted February 17, 2019 10 minutes ago, westcoastcanary said: Shouldn't we move on now? Maybe start a thread entitled "Can Plucky Underdogs Norwich Upset the Odds against Bristol City?". After all, we didn't against Preston .......... 😉 That would be a silly thread title as we're clear favourites in the odds against Bristol City (at this admittedly early stage). Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
westcoastcanary 173 Posted February 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, Thirsty Lizard said: That would be a silly thread title as we're clear favourites in the odds against Bristol City (at this admittedly early stage). Yes Thirsty, the bookies aren't mugs. How much did they pocket from having lured the punters into piling the money on Norwich before Wednesday? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Thirsty Lizard 3,154 Posted February 17, 2019 15 minutes ago, westcoastcanary said: Yes Thirsty, the bookies aren't mugs. How much did they pocket from having lured the punters into piling the money on Norwich before Wednesday? Crumbs - I've got no idea westcoast. Had I bet on the match I would have bet on Preston (for the reasons I outlined in the first post on this thread) - but I didn't bet on the match at all. The odds I've put up are from Betfair, which is a peer-to-peer betting site; so for every punter who loses on there another one wins and vice-versa - although Betfair take a small commission from each transaction just like a stockbroker does. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sonyc 5,481 Posted February 17, 2019 It shows on Betfair how much money had been bet on the main outcomes and how much is available in the market (on any particular market) at any one time, waiting to be matched. Those odds show us as almost evens favourites. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
littleyellowbirdie 2,500 Posted February 17, 2019 On 15/02/2019 at 23:39, lake district canary said: Exquisiteness takes many forms in football as in anything, but the more you reduce it to it's component parts and try to control it, the less exquisite it becomes....... No danger of that for me. The way Norwich are playing at the moment, by the time I've registered what's going on with the passing, the ball has been in the back of the net for a good five seconds. 🙃 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
