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Bill

So Preston........

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Having disposed of the bin filth it is to the North West we head, and another ex manager - and a former keeper (Rudd)

This won't be easy, with a few of the players recovering from the binner's agricultural style of 'play', but hopefully wee Alex will not over excite himself like his fellow scotsman Lambert

Perhaps the squad will stay up there ready for Bolton on the Saturday - save two long hauls, unless they intend flying.

Four points should be the minimum from these two games.

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Alex always had more class than Lambert. More credible as a fighter too - EW would have killed Lambert but I wouldn't fancy anyone's chances against Alex in a fight!

Got a ticket for Bolton, but Preston is too far for a midweek.

I don't think either game is "easy" to be fair, but I think we have shown time and again this season how good we can be. Fingers crossed our class will show and we can put Preston to the sword, and do the business against Bolton.

Last time I went to Bolton away it was a couple of days before Leeds away midweek (I did both which is why I remember!) when we went up under AN so the omens are good. Gary Hooper last minute winner with a ridiculous finish. The only other time I went to Bolton we won 2-1 in the Prem - Klasnic got sent off.

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I would suggest 'easier' than Leeds and Sheff Utd.

Thugh these are the sort of games where titles are won. Unglamorous games where wins have to be ground out relentlessly.

We've put our noses in front in both points and G/D so the ball is in our court

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This fixture stood out for me as a potential banana-skin, as they appeared to be getting players back from injury and are starting to find a bit of form,

I was somewhat surprised to see they haven’t won at home since December 15th, and that would be against teams with far less ability than Norwich.

Rival supporters are starting to believe there is only one automatic promotion place up for grabs, so a win Wednesday will really help to reinforce their belief.

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Hope we can recover in time to do ourselves justice, hate to drop points because we haven't had enough time. Hope Vrancic will make it, we'll need to make changes otherwise. 

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Champs is so competitive the old adage of there's no easy game springs to mind. And yet if City do keep this momentum till end season and go up, later in the year we will be facing the likes of Man. City and Liverpool, which will put the likes of facing Preston and Bolton into true context.

Injuries sure have tried their best to impead our march to the promised land this season, with Leitner getting a fairly lengthy long time injury, now his replacement Vrancic possibly missing for some games to. But then we have McClean and Cantwell, who im sure can come in and step up to the plate. Same as for the CB dept., Klose gets a similar out for a few weeks type injury to, but the other guys there are just as solid and City keep on a rollin' and picking the points. What a squad we have, what a season its becoming...City 60 points...Town 18..says it all.

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Yep. Definitely potential banana skin Wednesday 

 

having said that, it seems to me since we went top in November, our games have all either been (a) top of the table clashes (Leeds Sheffield Utd etc) or (b) potential banana skins. Eventually we’ll lose one , that’s the nature of football. 2 defeats since the start of September is the sort of run that puts you top of the table.

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Only a 'banana skin' if we presume a win.

There never have been what might be thought easy games, just some might be seen as easier than others ie as with  Leeds away and the binners at home. Even then key injuries to either team can affect things.

So far in that respect we have been ok. In comparison to others we don't appear to have lost more players and those out have seen the likes of Trybull, Gordon and Vrancic step up.. A loss of Pukki would make a huge difference as their is no matural replacement- Rhodes is different.

At the moment it is about averages as far as points are concerned ie 2 points a game are needed so four in the North West would keep us on track - though six would be 'in the bank' for when we do have a stumble.

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Preston are unbeaten in 5 and Bolton have lost 5 of the last 6.

Stand to reason then we will win comfortably at Preston, then get a footballing lesson (and a draw) at Bolton.:classic_smile:

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Preston will be very difficult. I wish I could go but am working (Tickets for Bolton though are neatly lined up on the dressing table). I think a draw would be a decent result. You never know if course. But they score loads and let in loads. Alex Neil will be motivated but not steaming like a certain other ex-manager. And we have to beat Declan Rudd.

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I do hope Delia doesn't greet wee Alex with her usual head slapping

 

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Interestingly the bookies and Betfair have got Preston down as favourites for this game. Not totally surprising since they are on a very good run and we are coming down from the emotion/injuries of two big games and also have 24 hours less recovery time. In many ways I think the Preston game is one of the toughest of the season. 

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The bookies odds are interesting but driven by punters... my guess is that Preston supporters have been thinking about this one for a while and want to back their team whereas for us, the focus has all been on Leeds and then the scum.  For neutrals, like you say they know Preston are on a good run and have another day to recover.  It's been a long time since we lost an away game though.  But that record can't last forever.

 

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with such a small book as this then a couple of bets either way can shift the odds quite a bit

I should think much has been laid, and the original starting price would have been set as one of a home team having the slightly shorter odds, rather than any 'considered thought' by the bookies

it is after all bookmaking, not the pools panel

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19 hours ago, Bill said:

with such a small book as this then a couple of bets either way can shift the odds quite a bit

I should think much has been laid, and the original starting price would have been set as one of a home team having the slightly shorter odds, rather than any 'considered thought' by the bookies

it is after all bookmaking, not the pools panel

Tuesday now and the odds haven't changed. We're the underdogs tomorrow night!

Preston Norwich Odds 12-02-2019.PNG

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9 minutes ago, Thirsty Lizard said:

This might show it better.

 

Preston Norwich Odds 2 12-02-2019.PNG

Thanks TL but I don't have a clue what that means ?  Any chance you could translate that into % chance implied for a home win, away, and draw ?

 

As you can probably tell, I'm not a gambling man..

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That is fascinating. It shows Preston as the slight favourites (ICF 2.0 is the equivalent of evens in non-decimal).

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The odds for each result H,W or D are quite similar with Preston slight favourites. It would work out about 40% chance of Preston winning, c.35% us and 25% for the draw. Very approx!

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Certainly ICF 

Preston win - 38.16%

Norwich win - 34%

Draw - 28.57%

That's from the figures in the blue column (The odds at which you can currently back those outcomes on Betfair)

The odds are in decimal format so to convert them into percentages you simply divide 100 by the number - so to get the Preston % chance simply divide 100 by 2.62 to give you 38.16% etc. 

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It has the making of a good game. It appears that AN is a decent Championship manager and his team are a fairly good attacking side. The bookies have reason to think it will be close.

 

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