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River End Canary

Points needed for automatic promotion

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On 07/02/2019 at 13:17, ricardo said:

 

Automatic it will be👍

I think and hope you're right Ricardo, but I wasn't your patented formula predicting years of Championship mediocrity not all that long ago?

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5 minutes ago, Fr. Chewy Louie said:

I think and hope you're right Ricardo, but I wasn't your patented formula predicting years of Championship mediocrity not all that long ago?

No, that was just my normal miserableness that makes me always look on the dark side and then allows me to be pleasantly surprised when the worst doesnt happen.😉 my great fear was that we could be stuck in the doldrums for a decade or more and at my age it would see me out.  Thankfully that doesnt look like coming to pass.

Seriously though at the start of the season i doubt if i was alone in thinking that half way or just below was about where we would be. Even at the third of the season where my adage of nothing much changes usually kicks in,  I was hesitant to go too far overboard. If i remember correctly someone asked me for a prediction and i said i wouldnt make one until Xmas when goal averages become an excellent indicator.

Sitting here at 30 games, i still think my third of the season formula is a pretty good pointer to how it will finish.

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If we beat Town on Sunday we will reach 60 points, reaching last seasons final total with 15 games to spare. This season has been  the perfect example of how the Championship is so much more competitive and interesting than the Premiership. But 60 points with 15 games  to go does show that play offs is very realistic even with a very average  number of points won in the final 15 games  and auto promotion is now more than just a dream, its there for the taking. We can only throw it away ourselves, as someone pointed out, we have only lost 2 games since the first 6 games when we lost 3.

I only have one slight concern about our home form, whereas away we are unbeaten since August. And this weekend...yes we should comfortably win against our old rivals but..we are top, they are bottom...our home form has been a bit dodgy...a massive 39 point gap...they are led now by our old recent folk hero manager PL..unbeaten decade long run against them..as Benjamin Bloom said on Jack Reeves TNC  site, "football is weird". Common sense says a good home win, but the weirdness side of football suggests Town nicking it.

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10 minutes ago, SwindonCanary said:

Woo is me, At the start of the season my prediction for us was 12th !    Glad to say I was wrong 😀

Before a ball is kicked it's largely guesswork.

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3 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

If we lose on Sunday I am holding you personally responsible 🤣

Keep the faith.

I'm hoping for a City one nil win. To be scored in the 97th minute by a wind assisted miskick own goal, courtesy of their Goalkeeper.. 

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Norwich have got a great chance of promotion, but prior to the very impressive display against Leeds, 11 points from the previous 8 games isn't a brilliant return. There's a couple of play off contenders in that group but you'd probably expect more from automatic promotion hopefuls. 

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Maybe Jubwick but I'm guessing you would have  loved to have been first, second and then first again after those 8 games. It's all relative because others have fared similarly (except Bristol). Rotherham & Reading likewise have not put a great distance between you and them either in that period.

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19 minutes ago, JUBWICKS75 said:

Norwich have got a great chance of promotion, but prior to the very impressive display against Leeds, 11 points from the previous 8 games isn't a brilliant return. There's a couple of play off contenders in that group but you'd probably expect more from automatic promotion hopefuls. 

That's just rubbish.  Before Leeds in our previous 8 games we'd played every other team, except one, in the top 8 currently.  To say that run of games included "a couple of playoff contenders" is simply rubbish.

 

If you look at Leeds, in their last 8 games in all competitions they've now had 6 defeats.  That's where I'd say "you'd expect more from automatic promotion hopefuls".  But... right now we and Leeds are level on points at the top of the league, so are very much in the driving seat for automatic promotion.  Personally I think Leeds are probably going to drop away because that recent bad run is not just a blip, but time will tell.  For us, we definitely had a bit of a wobble over that period when we conceded too many goals in several games.  But I am optimistic that's over, and going to Leeds and only conceding 1 goal when it was too late to make a difference is good evidence for that, and I think Godfrey has settled into the centre of defence and is looking really impressive.  We shall see.

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Take the first five games out of the equation, and we've accrued 53 points from our last 25 games (2.12 points per game). An average of 2.12 points from our last 16 games (with most of the big boys out the way now) would total almost 34 points, which would leave us on 91. That'd probably give us the title. With Klose, Tettey and Leitner back from injury and no fixture congestion from cup competitions, I think we're in very good shape.

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10 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

That's just rubbish.  Before Leeds in our previous 8 games we'd played every other team, except one, in the top 8 currently.  To say that run of games included "a couple of playoff contenders" is simply rubbish.

 

If you look at Leeds, in their last 8 games in all competitions they've now had 6 defeats.  That's where I'd say "you'd expect more from automatic promotion hopefuls".  But... right now we and Leeds are level on points at the top of the league, so are very much in the driving seat for automatic promotion.  Personally I think Leeds are probably going to drop away because that recent bad run is not just a blip, but time will tell.  For us, we definitely had a bit of a wobble over that period when we conceded too many goals in several games.  But I am optimistic that's over, and going to Leeds and only conceding 1 goal when it was too late to make a difference is good evidence for that, and I think Godfrey has settled into the centre of defence and is looking really impressive.  We shall see.

Birmingham, Blackburn, Forest and Brentford ?? I hope the easy run in I keep hearing about doesn't stop what has been a hugely impressive season for NCFC 

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I was thinking more Sheffield Utd, WBA, Derby, Forest, Bristol City, Birmingham... in other words all of the current top 8 teams except for us, Leeds and Middlesboro.

but hey, if it's inconvenient, let's just forget about the games that contradict what you're saying !!

 

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If you compare the points gained from the 7 "return fixtures" played to far, with those gained from our first meetings with those clubs, we are showing a net gain of 2.

Edited by westcoastcanary
Corrected the figure for the net gain
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49 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

I was thinking more Sheffield Utd, WBA, Derby, Forest, Bristol City, Birmingham... in other words all of the current top 8 teams except for us, Leeds and Middlesboro.

but hey, if it's inconvenient, let's just forget about the games that contradict what you're saying !!

 

Fair point, I was just commenting on the "points needed for automatic promotion" heading. I see a lot about points per game averages and 1.37 across those games wouldn't be enough throughout the season or in the remaining games for automatic promotion. Like I said though Leeds stand alone would suggest your strong enough.

 

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30 minutes ago, JUBWICKS75 said:

Fair point, I was just commenting on the "points needed for automatic promotion" heading. I see a lot about points per game averages and 1.37 across those games wouldn't be enough throughout the season or in the remaining games for automatic promotion. Like I said though Leeds stand alone would suggest your strong enough.

 

Lol so on that basis you’ll be expecting Leeds to miss out on the playoffs 😀

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On 08/02/2019 at 18:00, westcoastcanary said:

If you compare the points gained from the 7 "return fixtures" played to far, with those gained from our first meetings with those clubs, we are showing a net gain of 2.

Net gain back to +4 then is it? 😀

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After Tuesday, we could be 45 points above Ipswich with 15 games left! Basically an unassailable lead on them before mid Feb!

As for promotion, We can basically "afford" 2 slip ups. We are 5 points clear of 3rd and Leeds still have to face Sheff Utd and WBA and Sheff UTD and WBA still have to play so there are guaranteed points to be dropped there. At "worst", Sheff UTD and WBA get 4 points from them games and Leeds get 0 and if WBA win their game in hand, then they are on 60 with a better goal difference than us with 2 more games played, Sheff would be a point behind with an equal goal difference and 2 more games played and Leeds would be 3 points behind with 2 games more played and a worse goal difference. Basically, we'd still be guaranteed to be in the top 2 still even with 2 losses while they played each other.

Crucially in that mini league, we are done. Just Boro to go out of teams within 2 slip ups of us and they have a big goal difference to make up (9) and an extra game in hand to win.

 

On that basis, we need to win the other 13 games (well win 12 and draw 1 actually) to guarantee promotion; 37 more points, putting us on 97. This points total would guarantee promotion assuming Leeds, Boro, WBA and Sheff UTD won the rest of their games.

Best case, Leeds stuff WBA and Sheff UTD, we win at Boro and WBA and Sheff UTD draw and then Leeds would be 1 ahead and we would have a game in hand (but who cares if it's 2 go up). Even if WBA won their game in hand, they would be 7 behind us with us having 1 game in hand, Sheff UTD would be 8 points off and Boro 9 points off us (assuming they won their current game in hand).

This would leave us with 3 slip ups allowed to guarantee promotion. 12 wins, 3 losses, 96 points.

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On 08/02/2019 at 13:56, Essjayess said:

...But 60 points with 15 games  to go does show that play offs is very realistic even with a very average  number of points won in the final 15 games  and auto promotion is no more than just a dream, its there for the taking....

You're falsely assuming that it's a fixed number of points needed to get auto promotion, not 1st or 2nd spot.
As Norwich are top, they have the best chance of any club of auto promotion, regardless of what Norwich's point tally is currently.
The number of points Norwich need for auto promotion is 1 more than 3rd spot... or same points & better GD.
There's no magic cut off, just a statistical probability against each final point tally.

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Given Bristol City's current excellent run of 8 wins on the spin, I'm curious what the record is in the Championship (for wins in a row) ?  I've spent literally minutes researching it with no joy, anyone know ?  Unfortunately I have to do some work now !

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15 hours ago, It's Character Forming said:

Given Bristol City's current excellent run of 8 wins on the spin, I'm curious what the record is in the Championship (for wins in a row) ?  I've spent literally minutes researching it with no joy, anyone know ?  Unfortunately I have to do some work now !

Norwich won ten in a row in 1985/6 in the old Div 2 but I expect someone can trump that.

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20 hours ago, ......and Smith must score. said:

Norwich won ten in a row in 1985/6 in the old Div 2 but I expect someone can trump that.

14 has been done three times in the 'second tier' including once by Brizzel City themselves. The last time was PNE in 1950/51.

 

Yours nerdily

Statto Muzinic

 

PS the run will stop on the 23rd anyway.  Thread closed.

Edited by Drazen Muzinic
Damn you autocorrect

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