River End Canary 18 Posted February 6, 2019 Those of you of a numerical genius can you give me an indication of A) what points total should be needed this season for automatic promotion B) to get into the playoffs would be good to have a rough target in mind thank you in advance Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ged in the onion bag 847 Posted February 6, 2019 3 on Sunday, then 3 on Weds, etc....etc.... 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jack Barak 46 Posted February 7, 2019 I think BYAG (apologies if it was someone else) posted the link to this a while ago, it has been interesting to follow but if they are right it will show the expected finishing totals. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/championship/ According to this 82 for Autos and 71 /72 for playoffs. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Grando 256 Posted February 7, 2019 I'd guess 86, or 85 with better goal difference. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Badger 2,389 Posted February 7, 2019 In the EFL’s top division, both Leicester, in 2013/14, and Newcastle, in 2009/10, reached the Premier League with a points totals of 102, the joint highest over the past decade. West Brom won the 2007/08 title with a record low of just 81 points – usually not even good enough for a top two spot, never mind the title – and only three other sides won the division with less than 90 points; Cardiff in 2012/13 with 87, QPR in 2010/11 with 88 and Reading in 2011/12 with 89. The average points total to win the Championship is 91.6, meaning that to secure the title and automatic promotion to the Premier League, a team must reach at least the early 90s to have a shot at the title on an average year. To avoid the play-offs, on average a team needs 86.8 points to get the 2ndautomatic promotion spot to the Premier League. Both Hull and Stoke finished with the lowest points totals for a 2nd placed team over the past ten years, finishing with 79 points in 2012/13 and 2007/08 respectively, around eight points fewer than the league average. In 2016/17, Brighton finished with 93 points, just under seven points above the league average, and Burnley did the same in 2013/14. https://www.sportbox.co/post/many-points-really-take-gain-promotion-efl/ Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Badger 2,389 Posted February 7, 2019 https://www.thestatszone.com/how-many-points-are-needed-for-promotion-in-the-championship-playoffs-efl-skybet Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,239 Posted February 7, 2019 87 will be enough this season👍 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ron obvious 1,473 Posted February 7, 2019 (edited) 46 minutes ago, ricardo said: 87 will be enough this season👍 So 30 points from 16 games. Eminently doable! (Everything's crossed). Edited February 7, 2019 by ron obvious 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sonyc 5,447 Posted February 7, 2019 9 more wins needed for me and 3 draws with an allowance for 4 defeats. It is doable 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bethnal Yellow and Green 1,557 Posted February 7, 2019 This time last year - Wolves were top with 68 points(!) and Derby in second with 57... Villa were third with 56 and Cardiff 4th on 51. From their last 16 games, Cardiff got 39 points. Still a long way to go. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
It's Character Forming 1,156 Posted February 7, 2019 Sheff Utd are on third with 54 points after 30 games so if they continue the same average PPG they'll end up with 82.8 points or let's call it 83 points. That would mean to finish above them would require 84 points. Which would be the same as shown by those stats that the average 3rd place team has 82.6 points. To get 2nd you need one more point than 3rd, ie 84 points (so we can ignore goal difference). Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
It's Character Forming 1,156 Posted February 7, 2019 If I were DF setting a target I would be going for 87 points - which translates into us continuing our form over the entire season so far until the end of the season. Actually if we can maintain our form since the end of August, we will do better than that - of our 5 defeats, 3 were in August. But the likelihood is that less than 87 points will be enough. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
It's Character Forming 1,156 Posted February 7, 2019 It's interesting that we feel we are defensively fragile and we do sometimes concede sloppy goals, especially just before half-time and just after we have scored (notice the chance Leeds had from the kick off after our 2nd) (has anyone got any stats on whether we are actually worse than normal for this ? feels that way...). But actually we have lost only 2 games in our last 25 in the league, that's a pretty solid record and is the best in the division. If we can maintain that level of solidity for the rest of the season (ie no more than 2 more defeats over the rest of the season) then it will make a top 2 position so much easier. If being the middle word in life.... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
East Rider 538 Posted February 7, 2019 29 minutes ago, Bethnal Yellow and Green said: This time last year - Wolves were top with 68 points(!) and Derby in second with 57... Villa were third with 56 and Cardiff 4th on 51. From their last 16 games, Cardiff got 39 points. Still a long way to go. Thinking similar thoughts BYG. Nice to look at singular or groups of games coming up but it is a very nervous peek towards the later stage games. Lets plug away and do our thing. **** the rest. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
East Rider 538 Posted February 7, 2019 The **** above was not a swear word. Just started with a B and ended 'gger' Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
River End Canary 18 Posted February 7, 2019 Easy 3 points on Saturday for the 87 point target! 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ROBFLECK 131 Posted February 7, 2019 17 minutes ago, River End Canary said: Easy 3 points on Saturday for the 87 point target! sorry, not true...it's a derby Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,239 Posted February 7, 2019 It can be fun to speculate on the coming fixtures but we all know that points will be unexpectedly dropped or gained as the season draws to a close. What is fairly certain in my opinion is that the average points gained per game will be relatively close to what it is now. You all know bu now my adage that the season gets fairly well set in stone after about a third of the games are played and definitely by Xmas you can be pretty sure of the way the cookie is crumbling. When I suffer (as we all do) a moment of anxiety I think back to all those other promotion seasons that I have experienced. Once we hit the top we go on with the job, we don't fade away. Automatic it will be👍 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hoola Han Solo 448 Posted February 7, 2019 7 minutes ago, ROBFLECK said: sorry, not true...it's a derby Against one of the worst Ipswich teams in history. We’ll smash ‘em Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dj11 377 Posted February 7, 2019 21 minutes ago, ROBFLECK said: sorry, not true...it's a derby And not Saturday either ( I did look it up to make sure!!) 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
It's Character Forming 1,156 Posted February 7, 2019 My view is that we had a distinct wobble during December when we conceded against Bolton so it was 2-2 at 90 minutes and conceded 3 & 4 against Forest and Derby. Fortunately Leeds had a much worse spell and we have since steadied the ship, partly due to Godfrey finding his feet and looking increasingly impressive at the centre of defence. You can't expect it all to be plain sailing. But we have maintained our impressive run since the start of September. I will never relax about Sunday's game, but in the end I think we are the best team in the division and will end up in the top 2. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
It's Character Forming 1,156 Posted February 7, 2019 17 minutes ago, dj11 said: And not Saturday either ( I did look it up to make sure!!) Well, at least I did suggest a target of 87 points !! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ron obvious 1,473 Posted February 7, 2019 44 minutes ago, ricardo said: It can be fun to speculate on the coming fixtures but we all know that points will be unexpectedly dropped or gained as the season draws to a close. What is fairly certain in my opinion is that the average points gained per game will be relatively close to what it is now. You all know bu now my adage that the season gets fairly well set in stone after about a third of the games are played and definitely by Xmas you can be pretty sure of the way the cookie is crumbling. When I suffer (as we all do) a moment of anxiety I think back to all those other promotion seasons that I have experienced. Once we hit the top we go on with the job, we don't fade away. Automatic it will be👍 I would never be so unfair as to mention your early season predictions ricardo ... that would be unkind ... & I would never be that ... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ROBFLECK 131 Posted February 7, 2019 44 minutes ago, Hoola Han Solo said: Against one of the worst Ipswich teams in history. We’ll smash ‘em Hope you are soooo right Hoola...!!! #otbc Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,239 Posted February 7, 2019 After a third of the season looks familiar? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Crabbycanary3 994 Posted February 7, 2019 Fascinating, that since then Ricardo, ourselves, Hull and Brizzle have practically (Hull have) averaged 2 points a game in that period. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
splendidrush 698 Posted February 7, 2019 6 hours ago, ricardo said: When I suffer (as we all do) a moment of anxiety I think back to all those other promotion seasons that I have experienced. Once we hit the top we go on with the job, we don't fade away. Automatic it will be👍 Something I was mulling over recently, every promotion we've enjoyed you could 'feel ' as the season progressed. I guess it's to do with momentum, we either get promoted or nowhere near challenging. This season again, has an air of inevitability about it, that's not to say it's definitely going to happen but as each game approaches we look stronger and more confident. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wcorkcanary 4,316 Posted February 8, 2019 Finding myself agreeing with a lot of your posts Splendido!!!. That's exactly how I see it ,not certain, but building up a good head of steam. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mr Apples 1,314 Posted February 8, 2019 Never mind promotion, are we safe from relegation yet? 🤣 Apples Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Nuff Said 4,938 Posted February 8, 2019 59 minutes ago, Mr Apples said: Never mind promotion, are we safe from relegation yet? 🤣 Apples I wondered where Highland Canary had gone. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites