Jump to content
Note to existing users - password reset is required Read more... ×
Sign in to follow this  
Bill

points neeed

Recommended Posts

At the moment our current points per game average will see us on 87, it that average stays the same over the remaining 16 games

however looking at the average since binners away and that gives 98 points - a certain automatic if not Champions

3 Sat Feb 9 Ipswich Town

3 Tue Feb 12 Preston North End
3 Sat Feb 16 Bolton Wanderers
1 Sat Feb 23 Bristol City

3  Sat Mar 2 Millwall
Sat Mar 9 Swansea City
Wed Mar 13 Hull City
Sat Mar 16 Rotherham United
0 Sat Mar 30 Middlesbrough


3  Sat Apr 6 QPR
3 Tue Apr 9 Reading
1 Sat Apr 13 Wigan Athletic
3 Fri Apr 19 Sheffield Wednesday
0 Mon Apr 22 Stoke City
1 Sat Apr 27 Blackburn Rovers

3 Sun May 5 Aston Villa

those predictions would give 91 points, Leeds current average would give 87

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Impressive if we can pull it off, given preseason and partway-into-season expectations 

 

What period do you take as Leeds’ current average - you mean whole season to date ?

Edited by GenerationA47

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

yep

57 points divided by 30 games = 1.9

46 games = 87.4 points

The above points were what I though would be most probable, and where draws were given not directly against that game but to recognise that we will drop points but you can never be sure which ones

we have only one of top six team to play - Boro, whereas

Middlesbrough v Leeds

Leeds United v West Bromwich Albion

Leeds United v Sheffield United

Sheff Utd v Middlesbroug
 
West Brom v Sheff Utd
 
Middlesbrough v Bristol
 
very much a case of 'ours to lose'
 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have a similar set of predictions Bill, with us finishing on 92 points and Leeds on 93, partly based on us drawing at Villa and Leeds winning at Ipswich on the final day. 3rd place team on 84 pts, 6th on 76pts. 

Edited by Surfer

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I can't see Leeds hitting 93 points

My final totals are based on points average so far, then as 46 games

My game predictions came from the opposite of what I think you are doing ie

Average points suggest a finishing total of 87 points - so then a look at the final 16 games to predict where those points will likely come from

Rather than what points are we likely to pick up so what total will we finish with, as that is far more difficult to predict

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I did the numbers for the last 14 seasons, ie from when it was renamed the Championship. The average number of points to finish top was 93.1, and to finish second  87.3.

Nine wins and four draws and three defeats from our last 16, which doesn't seem unreasonable, would give us 88 points. Only five times in those 14 seasons did a club finish second with 90 points or more. Of course, that doesn't mean they necessarily needed to get that many points.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
58 minutes ago, Bill said:

yep

57 points divided by 30 games = 1.9

46 games = 87.4 points

The above points were what I though would be most probable, and where draws were given not directly against that game but to recognise that we will drop points but you can never be sure which ones

we have only one of top six team to play - Boro, whereas

Middlesbrough v Leeds

Leeds United v West Bromwich Albion

Leeds United v Sheffield United

Sheff Utd v Middlesbroug
 
West Brom v Sheff Utd
 
Middlesbrough v Bristol
 
very much a case of 'ours to lose'

 

Leeds have also got Bristol C away, and there is the little matter of the Sheffield derby too...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

44 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said:

I did the numbers for the last 14 seasons, ie from when it was renamed the Championship. The average number of points to finish top was 93.1, and to finish second  87.3.

Nine wins and four draws and three defeats from our last 16, which doesn't seem unreasonable, would give us 88 points. Only five times in those 14 seasons did a club finish second with 90 points or more. Of course, that doesn't mean they necessarily needed to get that many points.

The interesting figures would be at what points total were the top 6 on after 30 points and, what were the totals at 46 points ?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Bill said:

The interesting figures would be at what points total were the top 6 on after 30 points and, what were the totals at 46 points ?

 

Too many 'points' Bill. Unlike you. 😉 😉

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you project the average points per game over the last 10 games (1.7) rather than 30, we would finish with 84. If you take the last 15 games it's 2.0 ppg and we would finish with 89. And so on. There's nothing special about 30 games.

Also, it would be a mistake to discount the lower ppg over the last 10 on the grounds that those games included 4 of the current top 6; in the recent games against 3 of those 4 teams (WBA, SU and LU), we took 5 points compared to none at all in the reverse fixtures earlier in the season. Despite which our average ppg has fallen. 

Edited by westcoastcanary
Punctuation; corrected stats in second para.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, Thirsty Lizard said:

Too many 'points' Bill. Unlike you. 😉 😉

oops ☹️

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Bill said:

I can't see Leeds hitting 93 points

I couldn't either, especially given their recent form - however for a bit of fun this is a guess for their remaining results: losses against Middlesbrough and Birmingham and draws against WBA, Bristol and Preston. Can they go on a five game winning streak at the end? - well we did, and if you get momentum they could certainly do that, or alternatively they could crater and Leeds have a bit of a history of that - will be fun to see how this matches up to reality.... 

.... where I suspect we might see some drop off is QPR, Sheff U and Millwall.

0 Middlesbro (A) 3 Swansea (H) 3 QPR (A) 3 Bolton (H) 1 WBA (H)

1 Bristol (A)  3 Reading (A)  3 Sheff U (H)  3 Millwall (H) 0 Birmingham (A)

1 Preston (A) 3 Sheff W (H)  3 Wigan (H) 3 Brentford (A) 3 Villa (H) 

3 Ipswich (A) 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Surprisingly large variance in points totals for the teams finishing third (the one to finish above) which range from 89 points in 2016 to  a tiny 77 points in 2013.

87 points as per Bills OP would see us promoted in 12 of the last 14 seasons.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Even if it all goes wrong, and with my pessimist hat, on I give us 80 points  which will have us in the play-off's

A more realistic view I believe we will get between 90 and 92 which will give us promotion 👍

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, SwindonCanary said:

Even if it all goes wrong, and with my pessimist hat, on I give us 80 points  which will have us in the play-off's

A more realistic view I believe we will get between 90 and 92 which will give us promotion 👍

I think we are an almost certainty for the playoffs - needing just the five more wins and a few draws.

However given how there is often a far greater gap between 3rd and 6th yet both are in the mix I'm sure all of us will be looking at automatic as things stand. That's not being over confident or tempting fate, it's merely a reflection of how things are.

We are top with what could be seen as an easier run in than the others and no injuries to key players. Even with the latter we have seen Godfrey, Trybul and Vrancic excel themselves when called into the team..

To paraphrase other words the victory at Elland Road was won on the playing fields of Colney - as nor only have the players developed a more 'in your face' and aggressive style but against each team they play they know how to deal with that team's threats and they know how to exploit that team's weaknesses.

For Leeds the current total suggests Leeds achieving 87 points (average per game) so it would seem we need 88. My thought however  is that 2nd place maybe a bit lower and we will achieve more than 88.

So as Holmes would say " the games afoot* Watson".

 

* 30.84 cms

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There's a psychic, palm reader or astrologer on the corner of nearly every block here in LA. If you'd like to club together and send me a few dollars I'll tell you for sure where we'll finish after the match on Sunday (none of them claim to divine the outcome of derby games).....................

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, westcoastcanary said:

There's a psychic, palm reader or astrologer on the corner of nearly every block here in LA. If you'd like to club together and send me a few dollars I'll tell you for sure where we'll finish after the match on Sunday (none of them claim to divine the outcome of derby games).....................

or even the result

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bill/Ben/City1st  wrote My thought however  is that 2nd place maybe a bit lower and we will achieve more than 88.

so why quote me ? With my realistic hat on, I predicted, between 90 & 92 which, last time I looked, was more than 88 as you predicted.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, Bill said:

or even the result

No, outcome. I don't just ask my psychic about the result; I always ask her about such things as red cards and season-ending injuries as well.................

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, SwindonCanary said:

Bill/Ben/City1st  wrote My thought however  is that 2nd place maybe a bit lower and we will achieve more than 88.

so why quote me ? With my realistic hat on, I predicted, between 90 & 92 which, last time I looked, was more than 88 as you predicted.

Because I was agreeing with your thought on a playoff place, as

"which will have us in the play-off's "  you

"I think we are an almost certainty for the playoffs"  Bill

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

current average has crept up to 89 points

and as pointed out there are now as many points between us as and the binners as there are miles

all suggestions are that it will be 50 plus come May

what a season !

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've been keeping a close eye on the analysis povided by fivethirtyeight (who put more emphasis on a team's ability than form) and my own projection based upon previous results against teams in a similar league position. They both have us finishing top with Leeds second. Interestingly, I project a very close finish between four teams for third place (West Brom, Sheff Utd, Derby and Bristol City) around 80-82 points whereas fivethirtyeight have just the first two of those in the mix.

The complication is that there are some very inconsistent teams left to play. About half our remaining fixtures could be pretty tough depending on which version of the opponents actually show up: PNE, Bristol City, Swansea, Hull, Boro', Stoke, Blackburn and Villa could easily give us trouble, and the other 7 games are not guaranteed wins. But 8 wins and a couple of draws would highly likely be enough for 2nd spot, if not first. So, we could actually lose 4 or 5 and still go up. Of course, we have only lost once since September.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

at the moment my suggestions are nothing more than a projection of how we will finish if we maintain the same points per game average

but anything could happen between now and May so it would be foolish to point to any definite figure other than what the above suggests

however on 60 points with 15 games to go I would venture to say that we will make the play offs, as they can be anything between 72 and 84 points and I think we can pick up another 12 points

Edited by Bill

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

or the same but a better goal difference, alphabetically higher etc

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Bill said:

 

and as pointed out there are now as many points between us as and the binners as there are miles

all suggestions are that it will be 50 plus come May

what a season !

Does this mean that 1p5wich is actually moving further away? 😉

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Bill said:

however on 60 points with 15 games to go I would venture to say that we will make the play offs, as they can be anything between 72 and 84 points and I think we can pick up another 12 points

This is hilarious.
By that reasoning, as Norwich are top with the most points, no club will get to the automatic promotion places.
As later pointed out, Norwich only need 1 point more than 22 other clubs.

You're totally failing to consider the points distribution or points dropped due to draws.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×