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Spygate and the fall of Leeds United

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There was lots of talk about punishing Leeds for spying but perhaps the biggest punishment has been their form since they were caught. It could be that they're not as well informed about the opposition now or possibly the media coverage has had an adverse effect on them. 

Of the two teams we have played in the last 2 games I think Sheffield United look more likely to join us in the automatic places. There was an awful lot of noise and endeavour from them last night but very little end result. 

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I have been thinking about this.

 

Bielsa seems to be the type of manager who tries to use mind games to unsettle his opponents. Derby had a shocker when they played Leeds (after Spygate) and he tried to do something similar when he announced his team a couple of days before playing us.

 

Funnily enough, it seems to have backfired and his players have suffered as a consequence!

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Bielsa has a history of extremes - his teams are as likely to have a 10 match losing streak as a 10 match winning streak. That's why he gets sacked eventually. But his teams play exciting football and it's a hell of a ride. I kind of hope he turns it around and Leeds come up with us - he'll take all the headlines and pressure in the PL because the media love him.

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And, at the end of the day, they had more possession, more attempts at goal but we won comfortably because in all the stats one that was missing was Krul telling the ref that he didn't touch the ball that led to the corner they scored from. You could argue he was bound to say that but I watched replays at the time and am not convinced he did touch it either.

So for any scouting or spying, you still need your own team to play well enough to cope with the opposition.

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The two teams playing at Elland Road yesterday looked like the two teams who will be occupying the top two come May. Although I'm sure the West Broms, Blades, Boros etc. will be closely examining how Leeds were comfortably beaten. Plenty of games to go, but that performance must have given our lads a massive boost, while rocking Bielsa's troops. All very intriguing. 

Still buzzing!

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The next two fixtures will tell us an awful lot about the teams immediately below us - 

Leeds (a) Middlesbro : Sheff U (a) Villa : WBA (a) Stoke: Bristol (a) Blackburn : Derby (h) Hull

Leeds (h) Swansea : Sheff U (h) Middlesbro : WBA (h) Forest : Bristol (h) QPR : Derby (a) Ipswich

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5 hours ago, Surfer said:

The next two fixtures will tell us an awful lot about the teams immediately below us - 

Leeds (a) Middlesbro : Sheff U (a) Villa : WBA (a) Stoke: Bristol (a) Blackburn : Derby (h) Hull

Leeds (h) Swansea : Sheff U (h) Middlesbro : WBA (h) Forest : Bristol (h) QPR : Derby (a) Ipswich

I'm just focusing on us, it's simple, we're top, win every game and we're up, as Champions. 

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Rather than all this focus on "spy gate" and giving out the team sheet two days in advance etc., anyone wanting the real explanation for Leeds's current (almost certainly temporary) downturn only needs to listen to Bielsa's own analysis (e.g. in his post-match interviews on Saturday). The two factors he (correctly) pinpoints are less than clinical finishing and an increased vulnerability in defence compared to earlier in the season. Both were evident on Saturday and were why we ended up winning rather than sharing the points. It was basically a mirror image of our home game against them in August, when we failed to score and handed them goals through individual mistakes. 

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You make a fair point WC, we are playing fantastic football but there is no doubt we had the run of the ball for all of our goals unlike the home game. They say it evens out over a season, with both the Leeds and WBA home games we did not have the run of the ball. Nevertheless a tremendous win and a superb advert for championship football which we deserved to win regardless of having fortunate deflections for all 3 goals.

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12 hours ago, westcoastcanary said:

The two factors he (correctly) pinpoints are less than clinical finishing and an increased vulnerability in defence compared to earlier in the season. 

That man is a genius, translate that to we're not scoring enough and we're letting too many in. You could level that at every Club that loses a game. 

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I was a bit surprised at Leeds and their shooting. Full of desire, but lacking composure. What that shows to me is that they are losing belief in what they are doing, that the pressure of being top was getting to them. We were completely the opposite, focused, composed and dangerous every time we went forwards. Leeds might get back to form, but we made them look average and really nothing special. 

Also I don't think our goals were fortunate, the first was going in anyway (Casillas was nowhere) and the second one we overloaded their defence (or lack of it) and the goal was waiting to happen. The third was cute by Vrancic - he didn't blast it, opting to play it through the legs of a defender hoping to catch the goalie out - which worked (helped by the deflection of course). 

The Bielsa bandwagon has come off it's wheels a bit and it might struggle to get back going again. We did them with a top display and they had no answer to it. 

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Are you saying Vrancic deliberately played it through the legs of the defender? Get real, that is a ridiculous statement. Have you ever been near a pitch as a player?

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5 minutes ago, Red Rufus said:

Are you saying Vrancic deliberately played it through the legs of the defender? Get real, that is a ridiculous statement. Have you ever been near a pitch as a player?

Whether he’s been near a pitch or not, I doubt he has the skills or experience of Vrancic.

Feel free to contradict me if I’m wrong though Lakey?

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8 minutes ago, Red Rufus said:

Are you saying Vrancic deliberately played it through the legs of the defender? Get real, that is a ridiculous statement. Have you ever been near a pitch as a player?

Have you never watched professional football? Players play the ball through the legs of an opponent all the time! Just because it's hard for us amateur (at best) players to think of doing that in a game, for a professional who does nothing but play/train/watch football, it's second nature! Just watch someone like Buendia running with the ball past defenders, some times he will play it around them, sometimes it's through them i.e. between their legs or even under them as they run/jump.

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All I am saying is Vrancic was cute with his finish, if you look at the finish from behind the goal, he is placing his shot very carefully. Defenders will often widen their stance to make a bigger barrier and if you look at the defender in question, he is expecting the ball to go to the left or right and as it goes through him he looks lost. 

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23 minutes ago, Red Rufus said:

Are you saying Vrancic deliberately played it through the legs of the defender? Get real, that is a ridiculous statement. Have you ever been near a pitch as a player?

I believe that strikers are coached to hit the ball under the keepers bum in certain situations 

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Slightly OTT reaction by Rufus, but yes, it's unlikely that Vrancic deliberately aimed between two sets of legs to score!  We did get 3 slices of luck for our goals - I agree that the first would have gone in regardless of the deflection, the second obviously fell beautifully for a tap in and the deflection off the defender slightly changed the direction of the shot, taking it between his legs.

We also got some luck with Alioski's well-struck volley just missing and Leeds got lucky with their goal as it shouldn't have been a corner in the first place.

A cool striker will outwit a goalkeeper with all sorts of different finishes - look at Hernandez's goal v Sheff Utd - a beautifully executed nutmeg between Henderson's legs.

 

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Surfer

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The next two fixtures will tell us an awful lot about the teams immediately below us - 

Leeds (a) Middlesbro : Sheff U (a) Villa : WBA (a) Stoke: Bristol (a) Blackburn : Derby (h) Hull

Leeds (h) Swansea : Sheff U (h) Middlesbro : WBA (h) Forest : Bristol (h) QPR : Derby (a) Ipswich

When we went into the last few fixtures -- Forest, Derby, Brentford, West Brom, Birmingham, Sheff. Utd, Leeds I was agreeing with those that said 'Norwich would do well to be up there, after those fixtures'  But we have done far better than that !

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Absolutely, my feeling when we started this run of games after Christmas was that we'd do well to stay within touch of the top 2 by the time we played the binners.  I never imagined we'd be top at this point, it's a fantastic achievement !

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Yes Lazza, I have watched lots of professional football, I agree pro's frequently knock the ball through players legs but not from that distance when shooting at goal, in my opinion it was a slight mi**** that nutmegged two players. I also agree with your comments re Buendia but If you think it was deliberate I would like a pint of what you have been drinking.

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11 hours ago, splendidrush said:

That man is a genius, translate that to we're not scoring enough and we're letting too many in. You could level that at every Club that loses a game.

He certainly is a genius compared to some purporting to explain Leeds's recent run of results.

As to your observation, not every club that loses a game starts the match top of their league two thirds of the way through the season though; nor does every club that loses a game start the game they lose boasting the second best GD in the league. 

 

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6 hours ago, Woodman said:

We did get 3 slices of luck for our goals - I agree that the first would have gone in regardless of the deflection, the second obviously fell beautifully for a tap in and the deflection off the defender slightly changed the direction of the shot, taking it between his legs.

We also got some luck with Alioski's well-struck volley just missing and Leeds got lucky with their goal as it shouldn't have been a corner in the first place.

Exactly. The fact that fortune favoured the brave, organised and disciplined doesn't mean that fortune didn't play a big part in the actual result (which is why DF would rightly have been thrilled even if we had emerged from the game with fewer points). The xG values for the two teams according to Experimental 3-6-1 were Leeds 1.7, Norwich 1.5, which helps put the role of fortune in producing the two goal winning margin into perspective. 

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27 minutes ago, Red Rufus said:

Yes Lazza, I have watched lots of professional football, I agree pro's frequently knock the ball through players legs but not from that distance when shooting at goal, in my opinion it was a slight mi**** that nutmegged two players. I also agree with your comments re Buendia but If you think it was deliberate I would like a pint of what you have been drinking.

Well, the percentage shot is sometimes the one that is straight at the defender, try to hit it left or right of him and he is liable to get a foot to it, straight at him and he doesn't have time to react. It's the same principle as taking a penalty - nine times out of ten the goalie is going to dive one way or the other, so hitting at staright at him becomes a percentage option.   Vrancic could have aimed at the corner of the goal, but he hit it straight and got his reward. Fortunate?  Not for me, a good goal by a clever player.

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8 hours ago, lake district canary said:

I was a bit surprised at Leeds and their shooting. Full of desire, but lacking composure. What that shows to me is that they are losing belief in what they are doing, that the pressure of being top was getting to them. We were completely the opposite, focused, composed and dangerous every time we went forwards. Leeds might get back to form, but we made them look average and really nothing special. 

Also I don't think our goals were fortunate, the first was going in anyway (Casillas was nowhere) and the second one we overloaded their defence (or lack of it) and the goal was waiting to happen. The third was cute by Vrancic - he didn't blast it, opting to play it through the legs of a defender hoping to catch the goalie out - which worked (helped by the deflection of course). 

The Bielsa bandwagon has come off it's wheels a bit and it might struggle to get back going again. We did them with a top display and they had no answer to it. 

Im not really sure what game you were watching there to suggest that the wheels have come off. Leeds have been top for the majority of the season and yes I agree you deserved the win, however you had the rub of the green for the first goal and may have well been a different game had Leeds scored first. I call them results stalemate. I watched Norwich VS Sheffield Utd and the blades were the better team at Carrow Road,you looked very average that day. I also watched West Brom last week at home against Boro and despite them pretty much behind both Leeds and Norwich they looked woeful.   There are many points to play for, you have also drawn a few games recently and i'm disappointed in our recent displays also. Leeds may mess this up as it's what they do but they are very much in it exactly the same as Norwich are. I do think also we won't really get much at Boro and you will probably win your game Vs Ipswich but there are still nearly 50 points up for grabs, we have Bamford back and Izzy Brown in contention in the next couple of games.  The mistakes Bielsa made were obvious, Forshaw is woeful, Phillips is excellent but for some reason had him on the bench, an error he later regretted.  

Im not making excuses for Saturday, a win is a win but on top form you don't look any better than Leeds in top form and I don't believe that Norwich have been in top form recently either otherwise you wouldn't have also had a few draws recently.

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17 minutes ago, westcoastcanary said:

Exactly. The fact that fortune favoured the brave, organised and disciplined doesn't mean that fortune didn't play a big part in the actual result (which is why DF would rightly have been thrilled even if we had emerged from the game with fewer points). The xG values for the two teams according to Experimental 3-6-1 were Leeds 1.7, Norwich 1.5, which helps put the role of fortune in producing the two goal winning margin into perspective. 

 

14 minutes ago, Rob Whites said:

Im not really sure what game you were watching there to suggest that the wheels have come off. Leeds have been top for the majority of the season and yes I agree you deserved the win, however you had the rub of the green for the first goal and may have well been a different game had Leeds scored first. I call them results stalemate. I watched Norwich VS Sheffield Utd and the blades were the better team at Carrow Road,you looked very average that day. I also watched West Brom last week at home against Boro and despite them pretty much behind both Leeds and Norwich they looked woeful.   There are many points to play for, you have also drawn a few games recently and i'm disappointed in our recent displays also. Leeds may mess this up as it's what they do but they are very much in it exactly the same as Norwich are. I do think also we won't really get much at Boro and you will probably win your game Vs Ipswich but there are still nearly 50 points up for grabs, we have Bamford back and Izzy Brown in contention in the next couple of games.  The mistakes Bielsa made were obvious, Forshaw is woeful, Phillips is excellent but for some reason had him on the bench, an error he later regretted.  

Im not making excuses for Saturday, a win is a win but on top form you don't look any better than Leeds in top form and I don't believe that Norwich have been in top form recently either otherwise you wouldn't have also had a few draws recently.

I think Leeds have been a top 2 team for most of the season Rob. Otherwise, they would not have been top of the league last Saturday. And even now you're second ONLY on goal difference. The best team did win the game however. We saw something new in fighting spirit in the team.

 

The spygate stuff has not worked for you and had it been us, it would have been the same. It was a bad tactical error to have continued with it in my opinion. How much more can you learn? And secondly, why not just believe in your own team? They've been decent to watch (I live your way and know many many Leeds fans who are sound believe it or not).

I cannot see an implosion even though Boro will be tough. You'll be there or thereabouts, perhaps even champions by May. As long as both our teams are there I won't care. Leeds and Norwich are the best two clubs in this division this year. Hopefully it will all pan out.

Edited by sonyc

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I’m Sorry but this is a ridiculous thread title. The fall of the team that are second to us only on goal difference? By all means discuss the so called spy gate but they are still there fighting for a top 2 place as we are and several other teams. There’s a long, long way to go as yet 

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So you are saying that you think he deliberately hit the ball at the defender hoping it would go through his legs rather than wide of him as he would not have time to react? Sorry, he just knocked it towards the goal without taking aim as who would aim at the defender? The fact that it knicked the defender sending it through the keepers legs makes it in my opinion a fortunate goal.  It is also totally different to the penalty situation as the ball was moving, the player was moving and he had a defender between him and the keeper and less than a split second to hit the ball. A fortunate goal by a superb player who totally deserved some luck imo.

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35 minutes ago, JF said:

I’m Sorry but this is a ridiculous thread title. The fall of the team that are second to us only on goal difference? By all means discuss the so called spy gate but they are still there fighting for a top 2 place as we are and several other teams. There’s a long, long way to go as yet 

They have lost 5 of their last 7 games. So sorry, but it's not ridiculous at all 

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