westcoastcanary 173 Posted January 19, 2019 One of the less serious statistics I like to keep is whether the outcome of a match represents justice (we get what we deserve in terms of points), robbery (where our opponents gain points they didn't deserve) or smash and grab (where we come away with points we didn't deserve). These stats have been showing an interesting trend over the season so far, which I'll illustrate by the percentage of games in each category from (A) the start of the season and (B) over the last 14 games: (A) Justice: 50% Robbed: 28% Smashed & Grabbed: 22% (B) Justice: 60% Robbed: 13% Smashed & Grabbed: 27% Early on in the season we often played pretty well but surrendered points because of individual errors and weakness in certain positions. We were less good at capitalising when our opponents offered us similar opportunities than they were at making us pay when we gave them a helping hand. Over the last 14 games we have halved the number of occasions when we've allowed ourselves to be robbed, ensured we get more of what we deserve, and got more adept at taking advantage of anything opponents hand us. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sonyc 5,511 Posted January 19, 2019 (edited) Interesting analysis Westcoast. I suppose this is matter of judgement and I have no problem with that. Yet, you have consistently said we will only get 4th place. And should the next 14 games fall into the same mould ( and the trajectory is positive) your workings mean we will win 87% of games (say 12 games at 3 points each) and that would give us 89 points. And with 4 games to go. Surely an automatic place if so? Edited January 19, 2019 by sonyc Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
westcoastcanary 173 Posted January 20, 2019 2 hours ago, sonyc said: Interesting analysis Westcoast. I suppose this is matter of judgement and I have no problem with that. Yet, you have consistently said we will only get 4th place. And should the next 14 games fall into the same mould ( and the trajectory is positive) your workings mean we will win 87% of games (say 12 games at 3 points each) and that would give us 89 points. And with 4 games to go. Surely an automatic place if so? sonyc, we have our wires crossed. "Justice" can be where we lose and didn't deserve to get any points. Smash and Grab may involve getting only 1 point from a game we deserved to lose. And so on. You can't extrapolate a points total from those percentages. My prediction of 4th place was made after 23 games and currently I'm sticking with it. The main development is the contrasting form of Sheffield and Middlesborough, who have more or less swapped places as far as my predicted top 6 goes. But it's early days -- 5 played, 18 still to play -- and I'm still expecting Sheffield to fall back and 'Boro to recover ground. As regards points, a straight extrapolation of points gained from the last 14 games would see us finishing with 91 points. But there's a lot of water to flow under the bridge before we reach 2:45pm on May 6th. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sonyc 5,511 Posted January 20, 2019 Ah...ok. I have Sheff Utd falling away as well replaced by Bristol of all teams. Was impressed with them. The end result will depend on those double headers...West Brom / Boro etc. Not to mention of course our results against SU and Leeds shortly. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
