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Petriix

Bonkers run of fixtures coming up

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In an utterly mad anomaly, starting on 22 December and spanning 8 games, Norwich will face 7 of the current top 10 in the league. Fairly predictably, the following 8 games will all be against (currently) bottom half teams with the final 8 games seeing us run up against the other top half teams. I've never seen such a condensed run of tough games!

It's hard to guess what impact this might have on our season but, if we are still anywhere near the top after we play Leeds on 2 February, we surely stand a pretty good chance of putting a run together and pulling away again. I just hope that we don't suffer too many confidence-crushing defeats over Christmas and into the new year. Realistically we can average more like 1.5 points across those games.

In any case, things are looking decidedly good for now.

In Michael Bailey's article today he stated:
 

Quote

In the previous 11 seasons, 15 teams have also reached 40 points within 20 games: 14 earned promotion, 11 automatically, with Brighton (2015-16) the only side to miss out despite clocking 89 points.

 

Although fivethirtyeight have us with just a 48% chance of (I'm guessing they mean automatic) promotion, those numbers don't look too bad.

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Meanwhile, the (updated) Petriix guess-o-meter algorithm still has us comfortably winning the league...

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Edited by Petriix

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I remember the year we were relegated when Hughton was sacked  too late to make any difference.

 

From memory our last 5 games were, in no particular order, Man U, Arsenal Chelsea Liverpool and Fulham.  Now that's a tough run of fixtures.

 

I'm going to have to go and check now to see if I've remembered it right !

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But looking at this season.  We have Bolton, Bristol and Blackburn which takes us to the half-way mark. 

 

After that, of course we have to play all the teams one more time.  But it is quirky that starting with Forest on Boxing Day through until the derby on Feb 10th we have most of the "standout" tough games.  After the derby, on paper the games get a lot easier, the trip to Middlesboro being the big exception.

 

It could easily pan out different ways. A couple of defeats after Christmas could throw us off our stride and with all those tough games we could struggle to recapture our current form.  Alternatively we could continue to overpower teams and still find ourselves top come the end of Feb 10th and then cruise home.  Who knows ?

 

What I can say with absolute certainty is that if you were a Forest or a Derby fan right now, would you be fancying their trips to Carrow Road  over the Christmas period ?  I'm pretty sure the answer is no.  Remember, we beat Forest and got a well-deserved draw at Derby.  So we have no reason to fear these teams .

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This. Our form suggests that we play as well, if not better against the better opposition.  We've beaten  'Boro, Forest, and Villa, matched Derby,  lost to Blades in the last minute and got beat by Leeds before we started our run, so nothing to fear. Of course they'll all be playing each other as well so it'll cancel itself out. 

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As far as I know, every team plays all the other teams twice in a season, home & away.

Difficult to predict when the fixtures come out in July who the strong or weak teams will be in December/January.

I think it's called that's the way the cookie crumbles.

Besides to win this league you have to beat both the strong teams & the weak teams and it doesn't really matter which order you play them in.

 

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After the next 3 games we will have to play everybody else once again.

So will every other team.

It's neither an advantage nor a disadvantage.

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1 hour ago, It's Character Forming said:

What I can say with absolute certainty is that if you were a Forest or a Derby fan right now, would you be fancying their trips to Carrow Road  over the Christmas period ?  I'm pretty sure the answer is no.  Remember, we beat Forest and got a well-deserved draw at Derby.  So we have no reason to fear these teams .

And it might have been that in mid Sept both Derby and Forest fans were looking at a trip to Carrow Road over Xmas as a bit of an easy game........us being so far down the table.

What looked a 'safe' 3 points away at Hull did not factor in the weather or Hull's resurgence (they won away on Sat).

There are so many variables such as a injury to a vital player of either side as well as carded bans that there are no certainties and the best you can hope for is a probable. But even then it is as Rabbi Burns would have " the best laid plans of mice and men oft gang oh vey"

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Let me put it this way.  Right now I'd say (as certainly as you can say anything like this ever) Forest/Derby fans will feel their trips to Carrow Road are going to be as tough as their away fixtures will get this year.  They know we're winning games at an awesome rate and even if they have the lead on 91 minutes they could still lose.

 

The outcome is never certain, but right now I'd much rather be in our shoes than anyone else's in the division, and you can't really ask more than that.

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After the Ipswich match we were down there close to them with stats of p6-1-2-3-5pts. Since that moment its now p14-11-2-1-35pts.

An incredible turnaround, i doubt even the most optimistic  of us thought by start of December we would be top and 5 pts clear of 3rd place. And yes of course we have to play all the top half teams once more, but then so do they. All any team can do is take one match at a time. Right now it is a golden moment and feels even more than that due to the speed of the feelgood factor thats swept thru the club. Of course the icing on the cake is that we are top and THEY are bottom..if that holds until May we wont be just happy but downright deliriously crazily happy...and nothing so far suggests that cant happen.

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