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So, I scraped some data from the excellent www.footballwebpages.co.uk website and wrote an algorithm to project each team's final points tally...and, Norwich will win the league with 103 points!

table.JPG.64874a9f4c55420ea2de89f1bb297359.JPG

[EDIT: This one is probably more likely (see thread below for reasoning):]

table3.JPG.ae68ceeab8b2f3868a41f3deda053c0f.JPG

I had a look at the results and fixtures for the season and got the feeling that some teams must have played more of their hard games than others. Then I got thinking about what a 'hard' game actually is and realised that some teams tend to do better in different types of game, and not necessarily the ones you think. For example: Villa have not played any of the current top 8 at home; Leeds have won 2 out of 3 away games against top 8 teams, but drawn both the equivalent home games; conversely, Leeds have only won 1 out of 3 away games against bottom 8 sides.

Essentially the algorithm breaks the league down into groups of 8 teams: top, middle and bottom; and then works out the average number of points each team has gained so far against each group, both home and away. Then it looks at the number of remaining games each team has against each of these groups and allocates projected points accordingly. Finally, it looks at each team's current form compared to the season as a whole and adjusts the projected points to reflect this (assuming that current form will revert half way back towards the season form).

Without the adjustment for recent form, the projection shows Sheffield Utd winning the league on 99 points with Norwich 2nd on 96. I also ran the projection with a complete reversal of recent form and it had Norwich 5th on 84 points.

Obviously this is not perfect: some teams have little (or no) data from games in some of the categories, and it is highly unlikely that results will follow exactly the same pattern for the rest of the season. But it definitely gives some insight into how current trends could play out. I'll update it with fresh data at later points in the season and see how it changes over time.

I'd be happy to share the data and method in the (unlikely) event that anyone wanted to play around with it; it's just a long SQL query.

 

Edited by Petriix
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I guess it doesn't take account of those with money to spend in January either.

Would we be willing to open the wallet if we are clear at the top by Christmas?

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So this model has us picking up 73 points out of a possible 90 remaining this season?

23 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses seems...ambitious.

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8 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

I guess it doesn't take account of those with money to spend in January either.

Would we be willing to open the wallet if we are clear at the top by Christmas?

I'd be open for suggestions as to how to factor in January spending. Ideally it would account for the traditional winter slump and various bogey teams as well. However, I wouldn't want us to spend big in January. We just need to quietly strengthen in areas where we are lacking. Unless we can get Mitrovic on loan and emulate Fulham.

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Also history suggests you've probably got a flaw at the bottom of the table- 4 teams finishing below 40 points isn't something I think is very likely.

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1 minute ago, Petriix said:

I'd be open for suggestions as to how to factor in January spending. Ideally it would account for the traditional winter slump and various bogey teams as well. However, I wouldn't want us to spend big in January. We just need to quietly strengthen in areas where we are lacking. Unless we can get Mitrovic on loan and emulate Fulham.

Also just to note- don't mean to sound like I'm having a dig. I wouldn't have the first clue in how to do something like this so more power to you.

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6 minutes ago, king canary said:

So this model has us picking up 73 points out of a possible 90 remaining this season?

23 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses seems...ambitious.

 

2 minutes ago, king canary said:

Also history suggests you've probably got a flaw at the bottom of the table- 4 teams finishing below 40 points isn't something I think is very likely.

Yes, it's not so much what I think is going to happen, just what would happen if teams continued to pick up the same amounts of points against the same sort of teams. It will likely become more accurate later in the season as more data gets fed in. I could tweak it to make the extrapolations more conservative.

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Interesting as the three teams with the most parachute money are no higher than sixth. That could be factored in possibly. Maybe all the parachute payments left, if any.

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2 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Interesting as the three teams with the most parachute money are no higher than sixth. That could be factored in possibly. Maybe all the parachute payments left, if any.

How would that translate into points? I could make a list of teams who are expected to spend big in January and then give them a sliding scale of bonus points based upon this spending, but I wouldn't pretend to know enough about each club's financial position to be able to do this. Parachute payments didn't particularly help us to secure more points.

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3 minutes ago, Bethnal Yellow and Green said:

The boffins at FiveThirtyEight.com have predicted Norwich will finish 4th based on a whole host of inputs.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/championship/

I know it isn't how it works but I love the idea of Nate Silver pouring over the probobilities of Bolton Wanderers results...

They've got quite a Stoke revival happening.

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4 minutes ago, Bethnal Yellow and Green said:

The boffins at FiveThirtyEight.com have predicted Norwich will finish 4th based on a whole host of inputs.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/championship/

That looks really interesting; their methodology is really thorough. I wonder how much weight they put on form vs team value and previous seasons as I would suggest that our results would be an overachievement in that context.

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So, I tweaked it to make teams tend towards 1.5 points per game. I don't know if the total amount of points is even possible, but it makes it look more realistic: [EDIT: I made a mistake in the previous version]

table3.JPG.24d27ae13f29eeec6ada632599b14c89.JPG

table2.JPG

Edited by Petriix

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1 hour ago, lake district canary said:

Too many variables to make accurate predictions.  Good as a ego booster for seeing us at the top of the league, but in reality, it's so close, it's still anybody's.

It is impossible to predict. However, calculations like this can shed some light on otherwise hidden factors. I was simply attempting to factor in the strength of opposition into the current standings as I had a feeling that Leeds have had the slightly easier fixtures up to this point. The outcome of my calculation bears that out; but it doesn't mean that we will continue to secure the same kind of results that we have been.

Edited by Petriix

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1 hour ago, SwindonCanary said:

Like any computer program, it's all about the data you enter. 

The data is 100% factual historical information - it's literally just the results so far this season. The question was "what would happen if all the teams continued to get similar results based on the current position of their past and future opponents?"; it's not really a prediction, just an extrapolation.

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I will start believing in technology the day I can download a beer.

 

Good stuff actually ... I Like It (Gerry Marsden c.1964.)

 

As we are currently the pacemakers the Broadstairs think tank concurs with the findings of the computer(s)

 

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Whilst I'm sure the modelling has some value in limited scenarios, I would hope no one puts too much faith in this sort of modelling  matching reality in terms of finishing positions come the end of the season.

Did the FiveThirtyEight predicitions run last season at all?

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29 minutes ago, BroadstairsR said:

I will start believing in technology the day I can download a beer.

 

Good stuff actually ... I Like It (Gerry Marsden c.1964.)

 

As we are currently the pacemakers, the Broadstairs think tank concurs with the findings of the computer(s)

 

Is that as in Gerry and the Pacemakers...?  Oh never mind...

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37 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Spot on😀

 

I hope👍

Come on Ricardo - in previous years I have followed your thoughts on likely end positions and you are generally spot on.  What is it you say, "after x numbers of games the final positions are almost always inked in?"  So, where have you inked in Norwich this season?

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54 minutes ago, shefcanary said:

Come on Ricardo - in previous years I have followed your thoughts on likely end positions and you are generally spot on.  What is it you say, "after x numbers of games the final positions are almost always inked in?"  So, where have you inked in Norwich this season?

I have had a good look at the stats over previous seasons and the only thing that stands out is that at this stage league positions become more static. Five of the final top six are usually already in the top six after 16 games.

I will go as far as saying the present position after a third of the season lndicates strongly that a playoff place is at least an eighty percent probability.

The goal average was holding me back from predicting this earlier but that has swiftly gone positive. 

I am not going overboard on an auto position until i see how things pan out at the half way stage.

 

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Thought provoking lets hope it is accurate.  Re January spending I'm sure some of those considered to be big spenders will fall foul of FFP Villa, Derby and Midd'boro come to mind. 

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If Villa are not in real contention will they sell or buy in January?

Apart from Grealish, Double N, I think they haven't got a great deal to sell without losing money.

They will have to buy sometime so I think January will see a lot of movement from them.

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Interesting as that five thirty-eight model is i feel it is underestimating us based on the way they calculate the initial SPI, 66% comes from last season (when we were crap) and the other 33% comes from the perceived value of the signings that were made from transfermarkt, and our signings weren't of that great a value. It then goes on to say winning doesn't necessarily improve the SPI (which is fair enough), but does imply that if an SPI is low at the start of the season then it might be difficult to adjust the expectations that sets...

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