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OT - EU straw poll...

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And Kier Starmer comments 

" These documents confirm the severe risks of a no-deal Brexit, which Labour has worked so hard to block.

It is completely irresponsible for the government to have tried to ignore these stark warnings and prevent the public from seeing the evidence. 

Boris Johnson must now admit that he has been dishonest with the British people about the consequence of a no-deal Brexit. 

It is also now more important than ever that parliament is recalled and has the opportunity to scrutinise these documents and take all steps necessary to stop no deal. " 

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Have you seen the yellowhammer report yet Swindon? I hope you've stocked up on pile cream. 

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2 minutes ago, Herman said:

Have you seen the yellowhammer report yet Swindon? I hope you've stocked up on pile cream. 

I want to see what Boris blocked from public view. The government advisor interview by Radio 5 on Tuesday said there was stuff in there the public really should know. This is just the watered down version.

 

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4 minutes ago, Capt. Pants said:

I want to see what Boris blocked from public view. The government advisor interview by Radio 5 on Tuesday said there was stuff in there the public really should know. This is just the watered down version.

 

Try Rosamund Urwin on twitter. She reported on the original leaked papers and judging the dates they are the same. Not old like Gove said. 

But as Winky said, the redacted bit seems to be about fuel shortages.

They should have just printed it. By blacking it out they've highlighted it. They can't ever do dodgy dossiers competently. 

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Seems like all they've done is change the heading from BASE to WORST CASE. That'll be the line of attack from the headbanger's today. 

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EU Referendum reminder..

By constituency: 406 Leave, 242 Remain

By voting area: 263 Leave, 119 Remain

By party: Labour 148 Leave, 84 Remain. Tory 247 leave, 80 Remain

By MP: 248 Leave, 400 Remain

MPs are the problem. Elected to serve but only serving themselves & the rancid EU.

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7 hours ago, SwindonCanary said:

Happy Halloween !    😁

Trick or treat ?       😉    

As it stands does anyone, apart from @SwindonCanary, actually believe we will leave on Halloween, if so how exactly do they think this will occur. Perhaps @ricardo could even give us the lowdown of what the odds for the various options.

Looks like the two most likely outcomes are either a deal, based on the WA, or an extention until Jan 31st followed by a GE. Johnson could resign of course, with the probability of a Corbyn caretaker government to follow. If Johnson wriggles we would see Parliament vote him down again, or a VONC remove him. There are Brexit fantasies of him "martyring" himself, which rather underestimates the man's cowardice and self interest, or challenging the Bill requiring the PM to ask for an extention, which no credible legal expert thinks is possible.

Prof Curtice thinks that any GE has a 50/50 chance of returning a Conservative government, so it is possible that will resolve nothing. This could well run through 2020 as well, 3000 pages for this thread?

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4 minutes ago, SwindonCanary said:

EU Referendum reminder..

By constituency: 406 Leave, 242 Remain

By voting area: 263 Leave, 119 Remain

By party: Labour 148 Leave, 84 Remain. Tory 247 leave, 80 Remain

By MP: 248 Leave, 400 Remain

MPs are the problem. Elected to serve but only serving themselves & the rancid EU.

image.thumb.png.9496ec722d6d0bb7160ed763515fac02.png

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12 hours ago, Van wink said:

“ although the fact that the highest court in Scotland thought the govt has acted unconstitutionally, does undermine the govt's case that the opposition to what he is doing is completely unfounded and that they are following normal procedures”

Why? 

“ I too will wait for the Supreme course decision”

You need to make your mind up Badger.

There is no contradiction in the point I made VW. I will explain it to you:

1 The govt has claimed that the prorogation was routine and that the opposition to this was unreasonable.

2. The highest court in Scotland, having studied the case, has ruled that the PM has misled the Queen and the people.

3. The Supreme Court can still decide that that the act by the PM was "political" rather than routine as the govt claims it to be, but may still rule it as legal

4. In other words it can be ruled legal by the supreme court, but the claim that it was routine and that the opposition was acting hysterically has been severely compromised by the Scottish courts case that the PM was misleading the people and the Queen.

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10 hours ago, Van wink said:

Then you will have to point out to her that its the UK Supreme Court

It is in name (only) but the judgement will be made according to English law and not Scottish law - that is the point, and it is one that she will ram home whenever she needs to.

Only independence will give genuine 'control' to Scotland, and the Tory party keeps providing perfect examples of why it would be so desirable and beneficial for them.

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22 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

It is in name (only) but the judgement will be made according to English law and not Scottish law - that is the point, and it is one that she will ram home whenever she needs to.

Only independence will give genuine 'control' to Scotland, and the Tory party keeps providing perfect examples of why it would be so desirable and beneficial for them.

Scottish law is different to the Law in England and Wales. 
I doubt that will come as a surprise to most Scotts.
The Supreme Court has jurisdiction for the entire UK. It has judges from Scotland, Northern Ireland, England and Wales.

Edited by Van wink

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28 minutes ago, Badger said:

There is no contradiction in the point I made VW. I will explain it to you:

1 The govt has claimed that the prorogation was routine and that the opposition to this was unreasonable.

2. The highest court in Scotland, having studied the case, has ruled that the PM has misled the Queen and the people.

3. The Supreme Court can still decide that that the act by the PM was "political" rather than routine as the govt claims it to be, but may still rule it as legal

4. In other words it can be ruled legal by the supreme court, but the claim that it was routine and that the opposition was acting hysterically has been severely compromised by the Scottish courts case that the PM was misleading the people and the Queen.

Does it say that in express terms?

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9 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Scottish law is different to the Law in England and Wales.  - exactly
I doubt that will come as a surprise to most Scotts. - it won't, far from it but it will be a painful reminder that English law ultimately dominates.
The Supreme Court has jurisdiction for the entire UK. It has judges from Scotland, Northern Ireland, England and Wales. Of course it does but the case will be judged under English and not Scottish law - see above.

I have no great confidence in or expectations of the Supreme Court, they will do whatever they do and actually in the immediate future it will make little practical difference either way because on this occassion Parliament has managed to shot Boris's fox before the Porogation happened.

But equally, whatever the Supreme Court decide, the fact that Boris was found in High Court to have lied to the Queen will have consequences, and the Supreme Court decision itself will have consequences.

My original point still stand that your assertion that there were no winners yet is wrong - the SNP are winners all the way (and probably the Irish as well) whatever happens from here on in, just as  the UK is a loser however this turns out - as someone else said earlier the fact that a case about the Prime Minister misleading the Head of State is even being fought is yet another example of what a complete and utter disgraceful shambles of a country we've turned into.

Edited by Creative Midfielder
Missed a big chunk out!

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I understand the point you are making but I think you are making too much of it in this instance.

Proper legal process is being followed in the appeal to the Supreme Court, there is nothing new about that.

What is far more likely to precipitate the loss of Scotlnd to the Union would be a cooalition between the SNP and Labour and the price that will be demanded for that,

Edited by Van wink

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11 hours ago, ricardo said:
13 hours ago, Len said:

Farage has had his Tory election pact offer rejected - I told you this would happen last week!

It was never going to happen Len.

The rejection of a formal pact might be unsurprising to many, but only a cutting edge global political analysis of the situation will reveal the true strategies, groupings, motivations and loyalties.

The crucial part is yet to come, ie whether the Brexit Party unilaterally stands aside in Tory marginals, and also whether Farage tries to paint the Tories as a party that is unwilling to go for a hard brexit.

Cummings has had big differences with Farage in the past, and as these two are likely agents for the anti-Brexit global elite, a personal clash of some sort is a distinct possibility in order to deepen the rift.

Separately, I wouldn't be surprised to see Cummings implicated in any scandal that might result from the prorogation disclosures, perhaps leaving a convenient trail of incriminating evidence.

 

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50 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Does it say that in express terms?

Guys - My simple take on this is that the Supreme Court may simply rule (similar to the £350M/week lie) that it's outside the jurisdiction of the law. It's for others (Queen/Parliament/Politics).

Or in simple terms they may conclude it's not illegal (however immoral) for the PM to lie to and mislead the Queen.  

Make of that what you will!

Edited by Yellow Fever

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10 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Any idea what calamity will befall Boris and the Brexiters today? Anything seems possible.

No idea at all - can't work out why Team Boris aren't keeping him completely out of sight - that strategy worked pretty well for them in the leadership election and letting him loose as PM  has been an absolute disaster for them, so maybe they should revert to Plan A 🤣

Apparently the country can function perfectly well without its Parliament for weeks on end, surely things would work even better if we porogued our idiot of a PM as well?

Edited by Creative Midfielder

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4 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Guys - My simple take on this is that the Supreme Court may simply rule (similar to the £350M/week lie) that it's outside the jurisdiction of the law. It's for others (Queen/Parliament/Politics).

Or in simple terms they may conclude it's not illegal for the PM to lie to and mislead the Queen.  

Make of that what you will!

I'm not sure what will happen here. The discosures related to Grieve's humble address might well be the bigger issue.

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Ivan Lewis

Is this the guy that sent all those **** pest messages - and got suspended in 2017? Maybe he hasn't the best judgement! However, he has some good points and some bad points. We can all choose similar rants  for/against from MPs of all persuasions !

I do get fed up with posters who simply copy and paste others opinions - simply an echo chamber - Don't they have any of their own? Or are they just propagandists?

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2 hours ago, Van wink said:

What is far more likely to precipitate the loss of Scotlnd to the Union would be a cooalition between the SNP and Labour and the price that will be demanded for that,

The price that will be demanded will be a second referendum on independence. The only thing that can precipitate the loss of Scotland from the Union would be a majority wanting to be independent.

It's silly though, they've voted once and it's inconceivable that people might change their mind on something. It would be an affront to democracy to allow them another democratic vote. Or something like that; I'm not au fait with Brexiteer logic.

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3 minutes ago, canarydan23 said:

The price that will be demanded will be a second referendum on independence. The only thing that can precipitate the loss of Scotland from the Union would be a majority wanting to be independent.

It's silly though, they've voted once and it's inconceivable that people might change their mind on something. It would be an affront to democracy to allow them another democratic vote. Or something like that; I'm not au fait with Brexiteer logic.

You are absolutely right Dan, a once in a generation vote, or something like that. 

Yet from listening to the shadow Chancellor, it’s a price he’s willing to pay. The Tory’s gave millions to Northern Ireland to buy the votes of the DUP, Labour would give Scotland It’s independence. 

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14 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Ivan Lewis

Is this the guy that sent all those **** pest messages - and got suspended in 2017? Maybe he hasn't the best judgement! However, he has some good points and some bad points. We can all choose similar rants  for/against from MPs of all persuasions !

I do get fed up with posters who simply copy and paste others opinions - simply an echo chamber - Don't they have any of their own? Or are they just propagandists?

"Is this the guy that sent all those **** pest messages " ??? 

 I really don't know Yellow Fever, is he ? Are you saying that he did send ****pest messages ? What do the 4 asterisks signify ? Presumably, you are stating that he broke state law regarding harrassment - is that what you are saying ? Do you have evidence of this ?

I recall that complaints were made against him and that inevitably of course he was suspended pending investigation, but I don't recall what came of that. Was he prosecuted ? Was he found guilty ?  

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20 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Ivan Lewis

Is this the guy that sent all those **** pest messages - and got suspended in 2017? Maybe he hasn't the best judgement! However, he has some good points and some bad points. We can all choose similar rants  for/against from MPs of all persuasions !

I do get fed up with posters who simply copy and paste others opinions - simply an echo chamber - Don't they have any of their own? Or are they just propagandists?

It’s a good speech, the points about the Jewish community being particularly pertinent in the circumstances.

Politics is broken, neither party can genuinely claim the moral high ground anymore, sadly!

  • Like 2

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3 minutes ago, Erraticus said:

"Is this the guy that sent all those **** pest messages " ??? 

 I really don't know Yellow Fever, is he ? Are you saying that he did send ****pest messages ? What do the 4 asterisks signify ? Presumably, you are stating that he broke state law regarding harrassment - is that what you are saying ? Do you have evidence of this ?

I recall that complaints were made against him and that inevitably of course he was suspended pending investigation, but I don't recall what came of that. Was he prosecuted ? Was he found guilty ?  

Go look him up - I'll do it for you...

"In 2008, the Department of Health confirmed that Ivan Lewis had made an apology for his behaviour when in 2007 he began sending increasingly intimate text messages to then aide Suzie Mason, which ultimately led to her registering concern, and successfully seeking an alternative position within the Civil Service before leaving for the private sector."

 

Van Wink is right however - politics is broken. I just get fed up with people copy and pasting third party splurges for their own private echo chamber!

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2 minutes ago, Van wink said:

You are absolutely right Dan, a once in a generation vote, or something like that. 

Yet from listening to the shadow Chancellor, it’s a price he’s willing to pay. The Tory’s gave millions to Northern Ireland to buy the votes of the DUP, Labour would give Scotland It’s independence. 

No, Labour would give Scotland an opportunity for a second say on its independence. Only the Scots and give Scotland its independence.

To conflate the DUP bribe to allowing IndyRef 2, as it appears you are doing, is pretty foolish even by the standards of the PinkUn Brexiteers. I'm not sure you have noticed but a fair bit has happened in the UK between now and the last time Scotland voted on independence; I appreciate it doesn't appear to be a view you share but major events have a tendency to change people's minds and on important issues that massively affect people's livelihoods for generations it's always sensible to ensure such a course of action has a popular mandate. In fact, sensible doesn't do it justice, it's morally imperative to ensure that. However, as we're well aware, when powerful people have the opportunity to make serious bucks, morals go out of the window.

Trouble is, VW, do I reserve my ire for those powerful people ready to cash in on my country's misfortune or for the useful idiots who have enabled them?

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9 minutes ago, Van wink said:

You are absolutely right Dan, a once in a generation vote, or something like that. 

Yet from listening to the shadow Chancellor, it’s a price he’s willing to pay. The Tory’s gave millions to Northern Ireland to buy the votes of the DUP, Labour would give Scotland It’s independence. 

As we all know by now, winning a referendum and getting it implemented are two very different things, and the SNP are instrumental in defying the LEAVE referendum. The precedent is being set if this referendum is denied and Scotland can only blame itself when theirs is frustrated or denied. Karma !! 

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