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OT - EU straw poll...

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10 minutes ago, Surfer said:

Sadly the financial markets usually react negatively to increases in wages, it’s capitalism work, the higher wages are bad for businesses although usually good for the overall economy. 

Unfortunately prices will rise by a lot more than 1.8% or even 3.6% when the increase in costs due to a weaker Pound reach the stores. 

I guess that tends to be true but in this case the conventional wisdom amongst economists gives an even more downbeat explanation - business investment has been falling significantly since the referendum (and continues to do so, @VW forgot to mention that!)  so since it is relatively cheap and easy in the UK to shed jobs it makes sense to take on low cost labour rather than invest significantly to boost productivity in the knowledge that the jobs can be trimmed easily as the economy slides into recession.

@VW also forgot to mention that UK productivity over the last few years has been absolutely shocking, so wage growth without improved productivity will also drive inflation - in a healthy economy it should be the other way around with improved productivity driving wage growth.

So whilst employment and wage growth taken in isolation is definitely good news, if you look at the broader picture it is part of a very much gloomier picture.

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9 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

I guess that tends to be true but in this case the conventional wisdom amongst economists gives an even more downbeat explanation - business investment has been falling significantly since the referendum (and continues to do so, @VW forgot to mention that!)  so since it is relatively cheap and easy in the UK to shed jobs it makes sense to take on low cost labour rather than invest significantly to boost productivity in the knowledge that the jobs can be trimmed easily as the economy slides into recession.

@VW also forgot to mention that UK productivity over the last few years has been absolutely shocking, so wage growth without improved productivity will also drive inflation - in a healthy economy it should be the other way around with improved productivity driving wage growth.

So whilst employment and wage growth taken in isolation is definitely good news, if you look at the broader picture it is part of a very much gloomier picture.

It's almost like yesterday never happened.

Van wink

  • Van wink
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There are two sides to most stories, pretty obvious really but maybe worth remembering. 

😀

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Back to the cross-channel freight issue : Interesting comments here: I wonder what these temporary simplified customs procedures are, and are costing the Treasury, and it helps explain the claim that all is well in Calais, they have been losing business already .....

 

Lord Wolfson, the chief executive of the clothing chain Next, told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme the UK was close to being well prepared, pointing to simplified customs and border procedures. Next has moved all its imports and exports out of Calais to other ports.

Wolfson, a prominent Vote Leave supporter, had previously said that no deal would lead to “chaos and disorder,” with lengthy queues at ports and higher prices in shops.

“We are a long way from gridlock and chaos; the fact that HMRC have introduced these transition measures will make an enormous difference,” he said.

 

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I hear Epstein was playing poker with Timothy McVeigh, Jack Ruby and Oswald last night.

Abu Hamza said he wouldn't mind a hand as well.

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Meanwhile, back in the world of daily commerce..... political agreements are one thing, leaving a Common Market another. 

.... Calico Cottage is a family-owned firm in Haddenham, Cambridgeshire, making specialist chocolate and fudge in two factories employing 50 people. Nigel Baker, its managing director, is despairing in his attempts to prepare for a no-deal Brexit: Calico exports 20% of its produce to the EU and uses imported raw materials. Trading on World Trade Organisation rules means a 20% tariff will be slapped on to his exports, a price rise he’ll have to absorb: he sells to Disneyland Paris and says customers won’t pay the extra.

 Searching for what forms to fill, HMRC’s list of codes has been impossible for his complex products, where the quantity and original source of each ingredient needs a separate coding. “The paperwork is crazy,” he says. Each form has three pages, one needed for each of his 50 products with certificates of origin relating to ingredients from all over the world. “That’s what the single market did away with in 1994,” he says.

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45 minutes ago, Surfer said:

Meanwhile, back in the world of daily commerce..... political agreements are one thing, leaving a Common Market another. 

.... Calico Cottage is a family-owned firm in Haddenham, Cambridgeshire, making specialist chocolate and fudge in two factories employing 50 people. Nigel Baker, its managing director, is despairing in his attempts to prepare for a no-deal Brexit: Calico exports 20% of its produce to the EU and uses imported raw materials. Trading on World Trade Organisation rules means a 20% tariff will be slapped on to his exports, a price rise he’ll have to absorb: he sells to Disneyland Paris and says customers won’t pay the extra.

 Searching for what forms to fill, HMRC’s list of codes has been impossible for his complex products, where the quantity and original source of each ingredient needs a separate coding. “The paperwork is crazy,” he says. Each form has three pages, one needed for each of his 50 products with certificates of origin relating to ingredients from all over the world. “That’s what the single market did away with in 1994,” he says.

Thses guys were on 'Wake up to Money' yesterday.

https://kghcustoms.com/en/news/new-customs-academy-can-help-businesses-prepare-brexit/

They said that organisations need to get senior managers to train up else they are going to struggle.

 

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6 hours ago, ricardo said:

Welcome back Len.

I hear Epstein was playing poker with Timothy McVeigh, Jack Ruby and Oswald last night.😉

 

4 hours ago, PurpleCanary said:

You've been sequestered in THAT room🕵️‍♂️ at Area 51🛸 again, haven't you, Len.

 

No conspiracies are needed for my main points below (in bold).

I think what happened is that the arch remainers on here are so convinced that my views are fundamentally wrong, that they believe the opposite definitely must be true.

When I said Brexit won't happen they immediately flew into a panic and started preparing for a no-deal exit. I can imagine that within minutes of my posting, Herman and Bigfish immediately got in their cars and drove to their local supermarkets to buy cans of vegetables and candles.

This seems to be a case of reverse psychology. Interestingly, we have a similar case of reverse psychology in the current situation with brexit.

Q: Who have been the biggest promoters of the idea that Corbyn will be PM?

A: Tory MPs ("if we do this/don't do that we'll end up with Corbyn in no 10")

Q: Who have consistently rubbished the possibility of Corbyn as PM?

A: Blairite Labour MPs

It's very possible that some of us will get to sit back and enjoy the red tories in Labour and the yellow ones in the Lib Dems forced into supporting a Corbyn-led interim government. A second referendum will likely be the result.

Apologies if this good news causes Herman or Bigfish to head into the woods.

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20 hours ago, Van wink said:

I'm not here to speak for Jools, certainly wouldn't want to promote the bizare notion that I am he, I'm sure he wouldnt want to imply that he is I , but as I said earlier, there are two sides to most stories, we are a divided country, the media is divided, standards have dropped below the norm....on both sides Im afraid.

It's always the same bloody papers and websites.

https://fullfact.org/europe/telegraph-suspending-parliament/

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On 25/06/2016 at 10:54, paul moy said:

Unfortunately you either accept total free trade which involves common regulation free movement and contributing or you don''t and you have a limited agreement with a negative impact oYou still don''t get it and you rather ironically keep mocking others for being not so clever as yourself .   

 
The EU is NOT FREE TRADE as it costs us well over 10 Billion a year to belong to a CUSTOMS UNION which actually puts tariffs on goods coming in from outside of the EU and subsidises inefficient industries within the EU.  The effect of us exiting the EU will actually mean that goods from the Commonwealth, Africa etc, outside of the EU will be cheaper.  We may well get a far better deal after negotiations with EU than we get now as well, so that is a double win. 
 

this was the level of ignorance the brexit thickos were grubbing around, and it got no better as mad moy added this nonsense

" We would not have to negotiate much as we don''t need trade deals with every country,

but we could negotiate trade deals with India, China and the USA in particular which the EU has failed to do over decades.

As we are smaller with fewer vested interests we would get deals with these major trade areas more easily than if we wait for the EU. "

Clearly this numpty hasn't a clue what he was spouting about, beyond the usual ill informed brexiteer twaddle. As to this ignoramus there is either a trade deal or not.

The idea that there may be different levels of deals and each deal would involves much 'variation' as it deals with the complexities of both sides production and consumption of goods can be ignored it would seem

It should be staggering that such ignorance was being bandied about - but three years on these sumpties seem to have learned nothing and the ill informed bleats about 'deals' continue.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_free_trade_agreements

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On 21/06/2016 at 23:09, Jools said:

If the UK left the EU, Purple, others would follow.There would be no EU to be allowed back into - and that would benefit all of Europe in the long run

any update on who these 'others' are - and maybe how close they are in their preperations

do they have a deal etc ?

or maybe they have some sort of Marie Celeste 'abandon ship mentality' as yourself

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17 hours ago, Bill said:

thanks for re-affirming my long held believe that you brexiteers really despise democracy, as you would appear to support the idea that blocking the lawful democratic process of this country is acceptable

so much for the 'sovereignty of Parliament'

well yet again my little brexit bigot you are going to be disappointed because democracy will be upheld, as will the sovereignty of Parliament and no matter what those 878* opponents of democracy would like........it ain't going to happen

and I can only imagine the howls of outrage from you bigots if it was Corbyn proposing to usurp the country's lawful democratic process, or allowed children as young as 15 to elect him 🤔

 

* the actual number who voted in favour of closing down the UK's elected legislative

https://fullfact.org/europe/telegraph-suspending-parliament/

 

good to see other sources keeping up with me

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Posted (edited)

Bit early to be on it Bill 🍷

Any updates or change of mind today?😀

"Bill's comment that it is now down to 'no deal' or no brexit".  

Ha ha ha ha ha ha ......so whats happened to "it's over", whats happened to "article 50 will be withdrawn" , whats happened to "we will never leave".....   More wriggle than a wriggly eel.

Edited by Van wink

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On 19/06/2019 at 17:57, Bill said:

And for those interested then perhaps they might care to ask why was I posting up about the next PM facing a vote of no  confidence way before MPs or the much fabled 'comentators' were even mentioning it ?  In fact I even posted way back last August that they would be an extension. How they all piled in about May getting a deal through. How the EU always backed down at the last minute etc.

Yes, you know who you are 😥

But cling to your delusions, it makes for a bit of amusement I suppose.

You get three gold stars for consistently saying Brexit would never happen, and predicting the extention to A50.

However, it should be pointed out that I was the one who was strongly touting the possibility of a no confidence vote back in March, while you were busy claiming that MPs would simply need to legislate Brexit away.

It seems that the opposition to brexit (specifically a hard brexit) is variously torn between picking the lesser of evils, whether it's helping Corbyn to become PM, stabbing their own party in the back, losing their seat etc.

I've always thought that it will only be when the no-deal lorry is yards away from running them over, that anti-brexit MPs will jump in whatever direction is necessary to avoid it.

Brexit is impossible since Boris can't avoid losing a confidence vote and Labour cannot support any kind of brexit at all (the price for a coalition or electoral victory).

All this talk of constitutional problems or proceedures preventing an election from taking place or a new government forming is nonsense too.

If one actually realises that the power elites behind the national and global establishments don't want brexit to happen, then it follows that by hook or by crook it won't be allowed to happen!

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Posted (edited)

If that is true the power elites must move in the shadows as everyone in a position of political power in US and UK seem he’ll bent on delivering a hard Brexit despite the chaos that would bring. 

No, the dark monied interests are on board alright, it will be up to the MPs to save us all from this mess. And there I agree with you, it will not be until the very last minute that they will pluck up the political courage to do so. 

“ we must, indeed, all hang together, or most assuredly we shall all hang separately” 

Edited by Surfer
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There must be a very shadowy elite because, as Surfer says, the ones in the open are pushing this nonsense with all their might. Bamford, Murdoch, Salisbury, Barclays, Dyson, Bannon, Farage, Rothermere, Odey etc etc. 

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Posted (edited)

Talking of possible hanging - I’m not sure this is unbelievable because it can’t possibly be true, or unbelievable because it can.... either way the man in charge of the department who runs this facility is Attorney General William Barr, who refused to recuse himself from the SDNY based Epstein case even though Epstein was hired by Barr’s father years ago. Congress is now getting involved, interesting to see where this goes....

‘ Jeffrey Epstein's guards fell asleep and falsified records to cover up their failure to check on him for three hours before he died. ‘ 

The statue of Lady Justice represents the impartiality of the law, her blindfold should not suggest that the truth is to be hidden from public view.

Edited by Surfer

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Posted (edited)

And talking of statues - Lady Liberty - a gift from the French of course - who stands in New York harbour and welcomed penniless Irish, Scots, Poles, Russians, Germans and Italians - has a famous poem attached to  it - 

“Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free."

Apparently this administration is hell bent on changing this core American ideal too ... so it’s now not only about illegal migration, but anyone not rich either, and maybe anyone not a European too.

 

“ Here's acting USCIS director Ken Cuccinelli saying on NPR this morning that the Statue of Liberty plaque should be changed to read, "give me your tired and your poor who can stand on their own two feet, and who will not become a public charge."

“ That statue of liberty poem was about "people coming from Europe."

 

Why relevant to UK? Because the political leadership of our two countries seem tied at the hip and what happens in the US happens in the UK a few years / months / days later. 

BTW the budget deficit has increased by 27% due to increased spending and corporate tax cuts - so no bleating from Republicans / Tories please about having to cut spending on the social services when you have blown a massive hole in the country’s revenues via a sweetheart deal for your financial backers. 

Edited by Surfer

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“ The EU is NOT FREE TRADE as it costs us well over 10 Billion a year to belong to a CUSTOMS UNION which actually puts tariffs on goods coming in from outside of the EU and subsidises inefficient industries within the EU.  The effect of us exiting the EU will actually mean that goods from the Commonwealth, Africa etc, outside of the EU will be cheaper.  We may well get a far better deal after negotiations with EU than we get now as well, so that is a double win. “ 

 

Well Paul, it is free trade once you have paid the membership fee to be a member of the club, & even if it is 10 Billion a year that’s a good deal. 

As you say we are tariff free for trade to and from the EU right now, but with a no-deal Brexit we won’t be. Any exports to the EU will become more expensive for EU customers due to the tariffs that will automatically apply to them. 

Of course as a business you could drop your prices or as a county you could devalue your currency by an equivalent amount so the price in Euros stayed the same, but that would also lower profits - and lead to pressure to cut wage costs- or raise the price of all of your imports which would lead to significant inflation. 

Or of course we could just state we are a zero tariff county and hope the EU responds in kind, but then we would be losing any protection for sectors like farming - 

- good choices eh?  

There is a reason why we went into the Common Market, and why we built an Empire and it’s these kind of wealth and protection ideas, nobody has ever survived on true “free trade” it’s always been imposed on them by somebody more powerful - historically that was often us, but we are no longer “ the big dog” 

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Dear me, can it get any more bloody obvious - from a letter by MPs to Doris

" “We are alarmed by the ‘red lines’ you have drawn which, on the face of it, appear to eliminate the chance of reaching agreement with the EU”. "

The same tactic as May. Claim to be wanting to leave the EU but set demands that you know cannot be met.

Doris can now tell the bigots that he was full on for leaving, even without a deal, but those naughty MP's thwarted his plans. So there is no need to vote for that nasty Mr Farage as Doris will take the UK out of the EU

But you all vote for him/Tories alone so he will have enough MPs to do the job

 

ps those wanting a more complicated plot can find one in any Noddy book.

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1 hour ago, Van wink said:

Been wondering when he would pipe up.

I suppose you will be claiming you voted for medicinal airlifts?! 

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22 hours ago, Bill said:

Elsewhere we have another brexit loony talking about the British bulldog spirit, not some UK based alcohol but 70 percent stupidity

https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/caller-no-deal-brexit-british-bulldog-spirit/

and up pops another brexit idiot with this guff

"Remoaners keep going on about academics and scientists. Well academics didn't help us on the beaches or in the trenches. That was down [sic] the Great British spirit, grit, determination and strength. Academics would be **** in the trenches. Brexit needs heroes.

F*** experts"

Never mind they can cheer JCB who have been bunging Doris plenty of money

Why, you might ask ?

Well their sacking of 40 agency workers pn Mandy that follows 90 others in July might be a clue. Their backing for brexit is based on the knowledge that it would  allow the right to be able to cut employees wages, rights and benefits. Which is the reason Leave has been funded and ran by the wealthy.

But it is not all bad news for those who think 'master knows best' as David Davis has been engaged by JCB on £3000 per hour.

Could that be to work towards removing those employees benefits as mentioned ?

Of course not bleat the gormless.

 

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1 hour ago, Herman said:

Spreadsheet Phil, the unlikely hero. 

image.png.a9cf4ea8809fcab4e92b194264f29338.png

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On 22/07/2016 at 14:07, Jools said:

When the Italian Banks collapse shortly, the cowardly Remaniacs will get a sense of just how appalling the EU is and rest assured, other EU nations are going to leave the sinking ship - I''m proud the majority of sensible folk in the UK had the foresight to get cracking first, but as I''ve stated previously in the thread, I don''t trust the Tories to get on with it [:@]Allow me to inform you that we could be the new Tiger in the west; responsive, tailor made policy, globally orienting, we could thrive like never before [Y] A slight fall in my house prices would be well worth it [H]

any update on when that 'shortly ' is' ?

as it's been a bit of a while 😋

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Please allow yours truly to counter the BS with the fact-based Guido:

skynews-philip-hammond-uk_4698656.jpg?re

Former Chancellor and perennial Brexit Eeyore Philip Hammond has taken to the airwaves today to warn of the supposedly dire consequences of a clean break from the EU. This is despite him being elected on a manifesto that promised the UK would leave with No Deal if the only alternative was a bad deal. Which, currently, it is.

On Today this morning, Hammond bizarrely doubled down on the notion that he had spent time and money preparing for No Deal, despite the reason for his interview being a big intervention saying such preparation would be damaging and undemocratic. It’s okay when he does it but when it’s Michael Gove and Boris Johnson that’s beyond the pale…

“We were already doing No Deal preparation… we spent £4.2 billion… a large part of it was preparation by the treasury to mitigate the impact on financial services.”  ~ Speadsheet w⚓ Phil 🙃

So why does he have a problem with this Government doing the same thing he supposedly did..? 🤔

Guido suspects that the reason for the disparity is that Hammond’s ‘preparation’ was purely cosmetic. Last week it was reported that a No Deal planning committee member had revealed that previously “the Treasury was blocking everythingwhereas things are serious now and ten to 15 actions are agreed every day.” Hammond is only upset that now people are actually undertaking the work that he bragged about doing while actually undermining it… 👈😰😀

Downing Street sources have hit back hard saying the likes of the former Chancellor “never accepted the referendum result and they fought to overturn it.” Number 10 sources tells the FT that “Hammond and Clarke sabotaged the UK’s preparations to leave. Every day, officials tell us about decisions they took to stop us actually leaving” and The Times that “Everyone knows the ex-chancellor’s real objective was to cancel the referendum result.”

Hammond himself is doing nothing to dampen that analysis, talking up a second referendum again this morning.

“If we can’t resolve this issue in Parliament it will have to be resolved by either a General Election or a second referendum.” ~ Speadsheet w⚓ Phil 🙃

If anyone believes he actually respects the referendum result, Guido has a bridge to sell you… 😀

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