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OT - EU straw poll...

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9 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Not when they're all members of the same party and only represent 0.3% of the total electorate, it isn't   😀

Pretty much by definition a 'representative' sample has to represent all shades of opinion within the voting population.

As you don't have a subscription you won't know the purpose of the poll - which is why I explained the purpose in my post for your benefit. Read before posting.

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2 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Perhaps it was because he had a little more integrity or backbone than Boris (not difficult on either score) or maybe even that he is not so totally driven by ego and ambition as to totally ignore the national interest in pursuit of becoming PM.

Whatever the reason, Hunt did exactly what Boris repeatedly failed to do, and made it clear he backed our ambassador despite Trump's childish trantrums. Unlike Boris, he actually showed a spark of leadership - for crying out loud, even Theresa May showed more leadership than Boris which I think gives some perpective on just how pathetic Boris was!

Theresa May caving in to DT according to CM:

Addressing PMQ's Theresa May added Sir Kim's resignation was a matter of great regret and said "we owe him a debt of gratitude". 

Jeremy Hunt not caving in to DT according to CM:

The Foreign Secretary says he is "deeply saddened to hear of the resignation of Sir Kim Darroch". 

 

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1 hour ago, Rock The Boat said:

So if Boris wants to quash the threat from Farage then he clearly needs to leave on Halloween. 

quite clueless as ever aren't you hand crank

Doric might be gone before 31st Oct, but what happens in regard to the UK and the EU is out of his hands

that is down to Parliament, as it was before - and any attempt to block the lawful democratic process by closing Parliament would not be accepted by Parliamentarians and the judiciary........or the country come to that

so all that is left to him is to spout vacuous guff that turns out to be misleading at every stage

rather like you hand crank.....or is it Moy, Jools etc ?

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1 hour ago, Rock The Boat said:

Check out sample sizes of polls for general elections and you will find most of them are around the 2,000 mark. So 150,000 is a very representative sample size of voting intentions in a GE.

Obviously, this poll doesn't take into account Labour voting intentions because the objective of this poll is to predict what might happen to the Brexit Party if the UK left or didn't leave on Oct 31. So if Boris wants to quash the threat from Farage then he clearly needs to leave on Halloween. 

41 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Not when they're all members of the same party and only represent 0.3% of the total electorate, it isn't   😀

Pretty much by definition a 'representative' sample has to represent all shades of opinion within the voting population.

Some examples of GE polling sizes. To help the uninformed.

 

brexit sample size.PNG

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8 minutes ago, Bill said:

quite clueless as ever aren't you hand crank

Doric might be gone before 31st Oct, but what happens in regard to the UK and the EU is out of his hands

that is down to Parliament, as it was before - and any attempt to block the lawful democratic process by closing Parliament would not be accepted by Parliamentarians and the judiciary........or the country come to that

so all that is left to him is to spout vacuous guff that turns out to be misleading at every stage

rather like you hand crank.....or is it Moy, Jools etc ?

This is like saying a car is out of the hands of its driver.

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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

This is like saying a car is out of the hands of its driver.

nope

it is me merely pointing, once again, how clueless you are about how Parliament works

(perhaps Johnson will use one of your 'campsite motions' )

 

ps before you spout more ill informed shy,te perhaps you might care to look up what the role of the speaker is in the legislative and what the executive's role is, though you should really have understood all this by now - it has been explained to you enough times

unless, of course, you have the learning difficulties of poor UnAble Seamen Mouse-Brain, who at least does not share that dyslexia that supposedly affects four or five of you on here

Edited by Bill

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3 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

Theresa May caving in to DT according to CM:

Addressing PMQ's Theresa May added Sir Kim's resignation was a matter of great regret and said "we owe him a debt of gratitude". 

Jeremy Hunt not caving in to DT according to CM:

The Foreign Secretary says he is "deeply saddened to hear of the resignation of Sir Kim Darroch". 

Teresa May could have picked up the phone and told Kim Darroch to stay right where he is. She didn't. That is not backing him up.

Jeremy Hunt said during the debate that if he became PM Kim Darroch would still be our Ambassador. That is backing him up. 

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So here we are, less than four months from leaving (possibly) and still it's all about the tory party. Once this even more pathetic than it seemed possible leadership election has finished, I would hope there will be enough tory rebels that the government will be brought down in a vote of no confidence, hopefully the day after Boris takes the lame duck mantle. 

I think that is the only vote many of us would agree with. Time the tories were ousted and pushed out of power permanently in favour of something more relevant to the times we live in.  That certainly doesn't mean Labour btw, who have their own problems. Time for a democratic revolution. 

Oh and looking in on the programme yesterday on Conservative party members, it is a sobering reminder about the types who still are at the heart of their party - aging, male and middle/upper class. 

 

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15 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

Check out sample sizes of polls for general elections and you will find most of them are around the 2,000 mark. So 150,000 is a very representative sample size of voting intentions in a GE.

Obviously, this poll doesn't take into account Labour voting intentions because the objective of this poll is to predict what might happen to the Brexit Party if the UK left or didn't leave on Oct 31. So if Boris wants to quash the threat from Farage then he clearly needs to leave on Halloween. 

I would have thought you would know this @Rock The Boat , who knows maybe you do and are just trolling but I will bite anyway.

This poll is not a sample, it is a poll of a self-selecting subset of the electorate. Pollsters used samples that attempt to represent the whole electorate, and evidence suggests 1,500 is an optimum size and that the pollsters are pretty good at this. They then feed this into their models that extrapolate this across an election. These are based on assumptions which can make significant differences to the predictions. Pollsters records on this are far more varied.

Tory membership is not representative of the country, in fact it is doubtful that it is even representative of the Tory vote. Your argument seems to be that this poll indicates that Johnson can improve the electoral position of the Tories by giving the Brexit Party what they want. This ignores the fact that the Tories would then lose support to the LibDems and SNP. The only majority the Tories have achieved in the last 27 years has been achieved by squeezing the Lib Dem/SNP vote. Any upcoming election would see Johnson losing seats across London, Scotland and the university towns. To win a majority then the BP/Tories would need to win Labour seats  in sufficient numbers to make up for this. As the Peterborough bye-election shows the Labour vote is likely to stand up pretty well, whether this is enough is another matter.

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15 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

Check out sample sizes of polls for general elections and you will find most of them are around the 2,000 mark. So 150,000 is a very representative sample size of voting intentions in a GE.

:classic_wacko: :classic_wacko:

The size of the sample is totally irrelevant in this circumstance as it is totally skewed.

You seem to have little understanding of quite basic mathematical concepts. For probability to be effective (even with prescribed confidence levels) the sample has to be random.

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17 minutes ago, Badger said:

:classic_wacko: :classic_wacko:

The size of the sample is totally irrelevant in this circumstance as it is totally skewed.

You seem to have little understanding of quite basic mathematical concepts. For probability to be effective (even with prescribed confidence levels) the sample has to be random.

Not random, @Badger my friend, representative e.g age, social group, gender, voting record, likelihood to vote, education etc so the responses can be fed into a mathematical/statistical model. However, your point stands.  

@Rock the Boat misses the point that if we were looking at this as a Venn diagram there is a massive overlap between Tory members/Brexiteers/Brexit Party voters predominately full of right wing, white, male pensioners and a tiny overlap with the electorate as a whole.

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18 minutes ago, BigFish said:

image.thumb.png.b5e8c035b734f355f7a9146175b711fc.png

This is interesting, if slightly misleading owing to the FPTP system we operate.

The polls seem to suggest that Con/Brex with cannibalise each others votes?  So we're probably looking at a LAB/LIB coalition if a GE is called?

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4 minutes ago, ncfcstar said:

This is interesting, if slightly misleading owing to the FPTP system we operate.

The polls seem to suggest that Con/Brex with cannibalise each others votes?  So we're probably looking at a LAB/LIB coalition if a GE is called?

I'll answer in two parts. Firstly this is called the Butterfly effect by psephologists and yes it does look like the Con/BP canibalise each others vote.........

image.png.39cad0814e525f0f2453ee028227dc5d.png

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So here we are, less than four months from leaving (possibly) and still it's all about the tory party. Once this even more pathetic than it seemed possible leadership election has finished, I would hope there will be enough tory rebels that the government will be brought down in a vote of no confidence, hopefully the day after Boris takes the lame duck mantle. 

I think that is the only vote many of us would agree with. Time the tories were ousted and pushed out of power permanently in favour of something more relevant to the times we live in.  That certainly doesn't mean Labour btw, who have their own problems. Time for a democratic revolution. 

Oh and looking in on the programme yesterday on Conservative party members, it is a sobering reminder about the types who still are at the heart of their party - aging, male and middle/upper class. 

There is a lot of truth in what you say LDC. However, I don't think voters want middle ground parties. I think they want the two main parties to find a more centrist stance but I do believe that when it comes to a GE, people want black & white. Them or the others.

I did believe when the Thatcher era was completely cleansed from Parliament that the Tory party might realise the great hurt that era had caused and that the newer politician from that party might just see sense that the base of the iceberg is still there and isn't melting unlike the top tenth above water. But Rees Mogg and Johnson have nothing to offer the majority.

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9 minutes ago, ncfcstar said:

This is interesting, if slightly misleading owing to the FPTP system we operate.

The polls seem to suggest that Con/Brex with cannibalise each others votes?  So we're probably looking at a LAB/LIB coalition if a GE is called?

While the likelihood of a LAB/LIB coalition isn't that great.......

image.thumb.png.68463fb317803f373c8f8b44d091be42.png

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13 minutes ago, BigFish said:

While the likelihood of a LAB/LIB coalition isn't that great.......

image.thumb.png.68463fb317803f373c8f8b44d091be42.png

But the probability changes if the GE leads to No Overall Control right?  If Labour were returned as the party with the largest amount seats but no majority, then surely the probability of LAB/LIB/(SNP?) is almost a guarantee - I appreciate that couldn't be displayed in the table you've posted though.

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4 hours ago, lake district canary said:

So here we are, less than four months from leaving (possibly) and still it's all about the tory party. Once this even more pathetic than it seemed possible leadership election has finished, I would hope there will be enough tory rebels that the government will be brought down in a vote of no confidence, hopefully the day after Boris takes the lame duck mantle. 

I think that is the only vote many of us would agree with. Time the tories were ousted and pushed out of power permanently in favour of something more relevant to the times we live in.  That certainly doesn't mean Labour btw, who have their own problems. Time for a democratic revolution. 

Oh and looking in on the programme yesterday on Conservative party members, it is a sobering reminder about the types who still are at the heart of their party - aging, male and middle/upper class. 

 

No that's just your inverted snobbery. 

But bring on a GE for sure. Assign Labour to the dustbin of history, where they rightfully belong

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2 hours ago, BigFish said:

I would have thought you would know this @Rock The Boat , who knows maybe you do and are just trolling but I will bite anyway.

This poll is not a sample, it is a poll of a self-selecting subset of the electorate. Pollsters used samples that attempt to represent the whole electorate, and evidence suggests 1,500 is an optimum size and that the pollsters are pretty good at this. They then feed this into their models that extrapolate this across an election. These are based on assumptions which can make significant differences to the predictions. Pollsters records on this are far more varied.

Tory membership is not representative of the country, in fact it is doubtful that it is even representative of the Tory vote. Your argument seems to be that this poll indicates that Johnson can improve the electoral position of the Tories by giving the Brexit Party what they want. This ignores the fact that the Tories would then lose support to the LibDems and SNP. The only majority the Tories have achieved in the last 27 years has been achieved by squeezing the Lib Dem/SNP vote. Any upcoming election would see Johnson losing seats across London, Scotland and the university towns. To win a majority then the BP/Tories would need to win Labour seats  in sufficient numbers to make up for this. As the Peterborough bye-election shows the Labour vote is likely to stand up pretty well, whether this is enough is another matter.

Let's just backtrack here for a minute @BigFish because CM has muddied the waer somewhat with his misunderstanding of what was being posted.

Keelands Grandad posted this: "Lets wait and see shall we. Everything about Brexit is guesswork and supposition so I will wait for the excuse when blondie comes back from Brussels with nothing but excuses."

 Which is a very good point to make; what will Johnson achieve in Brussels, given that so much is guesswork and supposition? On that basis I posted the results of a poll, the results of which showed a massive switch in Brexit Party support to Tory support if Johnson takes the UK out of the EU on October 31. 

Given such a significant swing, it is very likely to influence Johnson's approach and in so doing reduces the amount of guesswork and supposition.

Unfortunately, topics seem to get gatecrashed by the uniformed who don't take the time to read and understand  what is being stated. The topic has nothing at all to do with the Labour party or the LibDems or how voters may react to events affecting those two parties. Neither was it an attempt to predict what vote parties may receive in a GE. It was a poll to gauge what might happen vis-a-vis Tory and Brexit party support.

Should Brexit party support fade away, that changes the political landscape enormously. It seems the Tory party could be seriously damaged - to answer KG's question -  if Boris does not take us out on Halloween and the results of that poll hold true.

If Johnson is successful then the other parties may well take London, Scotland and the university towns. But their vote will be split between more than one party so the Tories will still be the largest party. as it sweeps up the rest of the country. Given that the Labour leader is Jeremy Corbyn, many swing voters will not support Labour, and with Brexit confirmed, the swing vote - which normally decides our elections - will go to the Tories. The Remain vote is now split between Labour and LibDems now that Labour has finally come out as Remain. The Tories, on the other hand, are deselecting their staunch Remain MPs and this will hold up their vote. But the significance of October 31 cannot be underestimated if the polls are correct.

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59 minutes ago, ncfcstar said:

But the probability changes if the GE leads to No Overall Control right?  If Labour were returned as the party with the largest amount seats but no majority, then surely the probability of LAB/LIB/(SNP?) is almost a guarantee - I appreciate that couldn't be displayed in the table you've posted though.

All true @ncfcstar, but impossible to deal with objectively from the data. We are then in the world of subjectivity, behaviour and opinion.  

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20 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

if Boris does not take us out on Halloween and the results of that poll hold true.

If ?

I thought it was a nailed on certainty that the UK was leaving the EU on 31st October 🙄

So what might cause that to fail ?

The EU not willing to renegotiate the Withdrawal Deal ?

The next PM not being able to close down Parliament ?

Parliament blocking a 'no deal' exit ?

Speculate all you wish but nothing can be taken for granted vote wise, as with the 'overnight appearance of the Brexit company or the Tories 25 point lead being wiped out in a couple of months in Spring 2017.

However one thing you can be certain of is ...............Bill will be right, as usual.

In this case it will be that the UK will not leave the EU on 31st October (or thereabouts).

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Here's one from Guido for the Greenies concerning the sh*thouse EU:

magid-magid-duped-eu.png?w=540&ssl=1

They say you should never meet your heroes, new Green Party MEP Magid Magid appears to be having exactly this experience in Brussels after discovering that the EU that he was passionately in favour of just a few weeks ago is actually a bureaucratic hellhole dominated by stale old white men stitching everything up behind closed doors. Brexiteers did try to warn him… 👈

Magid even suffered the indignity of being asked to leave the Strasbourg Parliament by someone who assumed he wasn’t meant to be there because of the colour of his skin  😮 the UK remains the only country to send ethnically diverse MEPs to the European Parliament in any significant numbers. He’s written a refreshingly honest account of what he actually found in Strasbourg and Brussels:

“Next to nobody in Brussels has any clue what the European Union truly stands for — beyond a flag and an anthem — and more crucially, where it is heading. And that includes the EU leaders and senior officials soullessly waddling through the corridors of power. When I arrived in the EU capital, I expected to find it brimming with activity and potential answers to these questions. Instead, I felt duped: Making a tangible impact on constituents’ lives is apparently not what being an MEP is all about.”

“In Brussels in particular, we need more transparency in the way we make decisions. Our institutions are plagued with convoluted customs, hidden handshakes and backdoor bargaining. I’ve seen it first hand already. How can we reject the accusations leveled against the European elite that we are out of touch, when the top dogs in our Parliament and Commission are chosen through obscure quid-pro-quo arrangements agreed over Champagne and truffles in Brussels’ finest hotel lobbies?”

“In Brussels, the go-to answer to a failed system is superficial; try a fresh coat of paint on crumbling walls. We have to be ready to burn down the house if necessary, to rebuild it in such a way that every citizen from Mansfield to Milan truly feels part of and represented by the EU.”

Looks like the Brexit Party could make it up to 30 MEPs before their term in the Parliament is done… 👍

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5 minutes ago, Midlands Yellow said:

You lot need to chill out and watch Love Island . 

It's the kind of programme that people who yearn to stay in the EU actually enjoy.

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1 hour ago, Bill said:

If ?

I thought it was a nailed on certainty that the UK was leaving the EU on 31st October 🙄

So what might cause that to fail ?

The EU not willing to renegotiate the Withdrawal Deal ?

The next PM not being able to close down Parliament ?

Parliament blocking a 'no deal' exit ?

Speculate all you wish but nothing can be taken for granted vote wise, as with the 'overnight appearance of the Brexit company or the Tories 25 point lead being wiped out in a couple of months in Spring 2017.

However one thing you can be certain of is ...............Bill will be right, as usual.

In this case it will be that the UK will not leave the EU on 31st October (or thereabouts).

No body has ever taken anything for granted on this thread. For as long as I can remember the overwhelming opinion seems to be it  is impossible to predict the outcome with so many variables to consider. Hence the speculation.

I'm sure you'll be around to tell us that you've been right all along.

 

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