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OT - EU straw poll...

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19 minutes ago, Bagster said:

The problem we now have and have had since the referendum to be fair is that both hard leave and hard remain have solidified.

It seems the sensible and intelligent option of uniting the country through compromise isn't going to happen anytime soon.

So this s h I t show is going to rumble on.

Boris has already won this, so crown him and let's see what he can do.

In my opinion we are just about to experience groundhog Day once again. I hope not but I have seen nothing from anyone that will unlock this door.

So General election or 2nd referendum or are we heading to another round of indicative votes.

On and on it goes, where it stops nobody knows...rigid thinking when flexibility and creative thinking is required.

Boring zzzzzzz

The other option is to withdraw article 50 which is Bill's position, and dispite all his bravado is in fact the least likely outcome.

He has never been prepared to describe how this will unfold, only happy to lob BS at everone else.

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32 minutes ago, paul moy said:

I'd like to see a pact between Farage and Boris allowing BP standing against remainer MPs with a snap general election removing most remainer Tories and Liebore from Parliament.  This then gives a clear mandate for a No Deal Brexit and GATT 24  for the EU FTA. 

 

GATT 24 is an article of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. Supporters of a no-deal Brexit say it would allow the UK to continue to trade with the EU without tariffs for up to 10 years, while the two sides were negotiating a permanent future trade agreement.

But you can't use it in this way - a trade agreement has to be agreed in principle before Article 24 can be used.

It also needs the two sides to agree - the UK can't just impose it on the EU.

https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/region_e/regatt_e.htm#gatt)

More ill-informed nonsense from Paul Moy.

 

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15 minutes ago, Van wink said:

The other option is to withdraw article 50 which is Bill's position, and dispite all his bravado is in fact the least likely outcome.

He has never been prepared to describe how this will unfold, only happy to lob BS at everone else.

I will post up a 'comprehensive' plan of how that will happen...when I have time

Meanwhile whilst I am off earning my crust perhaps you could point us all to this school you claimed to have attended

you know, as in your claim

" I’m a Comprehensive school working class boy "

 

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2 minutes ago, A Load of Squit said:

GATT 24 is an article of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. Supporters of a no-deal Brexit say it would allow the UK to continue to trade with the EU without tariffs for up to 10 years, while the two sides were negotiating a permanent future trade agreement.

But you can't use it in this way - a trade agreement has to be agreed in principle before Article 24 can be used.

It also needs the two sides to agree - the UK can't just impose it on the EU.

https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/region_e/regatt_e.htm#gatt)

More ill-informed nonsense from Paul Moy.

Unfortunately 'mad' moy has no more of a clue about any of this than the sheep who bleated out 'four legs good'

it seems to be impossible for them to look this up themselves

something that is a trait amongst the dimwitted brexiteers on here and elsewhere

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At which point do the brexiteers grasp that Brexit is a public school debate to be PM and after three years no one has a plan to make brexit work. Sadly it appears that ideology still takes precedence over practical reality 

The only possible positive thing to come out was possible action on islamophobia  

I doubt any of the brexiteers are interested in reality but good article below if anyone does actually want to educate themselves on the reality of Brexit  

 

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/06/ivan-rogers-no-deal-is-now-the-most-likely-outcome/

 

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Bill said:

I will post up a 'comprehensive' plan of how that will happen...when I have time

Meanwhile whilst I am off earning my crust perhaps you could point us all to this school you claimed to have attended

you know, as in your claim

" I’m a Comprehensive school working class boy "

 

Ha ha, ha, ha, ha, "when I have time"

As for which school I went to, when you get time, you can also make a comprehensive case as to why which particular comprehensive school I went to is of any relevence to this forum or indeed to a flowerpot man.

Edited by Van wink
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1 hour ago, Bagster said:

Why is that, do you think that raab supporters are more likely to vote for Rory......I don't, I think he has gone as far as he can go.

I don't, I was merely stating the obvious - Rory picked up more new votes (by a margin) in this round than anyone else, he was also the only contender to move up the table in the process.

I wasn't making any prediction for the future - he is clearly still a very outside chance although I wouldn't be surprised to see that he has sufficient momentum to survive the next round. Suspect he may take votes off Jarvid who I think expected to be much better placed than he is and maybe even Hunt who doesn't seem to be making much impact either.

Didn't even bother to watch yesterday's debate but hopefully a lot of Tory voters (assuming they still exist!) did. Sounds as though it was a complete embarassment for the Tories, so let's hope this contest runs for as long as possible  😀

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1 hour ago, Bagster said:

The problem we now have and have had since the referendum to be fair is that both hard leave and hard remain have solidified.

It seems the sensible and intelligent option of uniting the country through compromise isn't going to happen anytime soon.

So this s h I t show is going to rumble on.

Boris has already won this, so crown him and let's see what he can do.

In my opinion we are just about to experience groundhog Day once again. I hope not but I have seen nothing from anyone that will unlock this door.

So General election or 2nd referendum or are we heading to another round of indicative votes.

On and on it goes, where it stops nobody knows...rigid thinking when flexibility and creative thinking is required.

Boring zzzzzzz

You said that before and I'm not going reiterate why I think you're completely wrong to blame anyone other than Theresa May because the article that @T just linked https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/06/ivan-rogers-no-deal-is-now-the-most-likely-outcome/ is far more articulate, knowledgeable and objective.

But in case you can't be bothered to read the whole thing (it really is worth a read and covers some of your other points as well, even includes a footballing analogy at one point) here is one snippet:

I now think a ‘no deal’ outcome the probability, for reasons I shall explain. But I have thought it a serious risk since autumn 2016, and been saying to private sector and university audiences since then that I thought the risk was vastly underpriced by the markets, most companies and the media. Why? Because the previous Prime Minister kicked off the negotiation process with two speeches – at the 2016 Party Conference and at Lancaster House in January 2017, which I think frankly were two of the most ill-advised speeches given by a British Prime Minister since the War. Those speeches revealed a fundamental misunderstanding of the nature of our post-Brexit options.

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After Yesterday evenings , leadership debate it shows all of them are a disgrace and not fit to run the country.  Each one mentioned  we must fear a general election as this may let  Corbyn/ Labour in. 

The lying lot, know for a fact that a general election will most certainly see the Brexit party with a strong lead, destroying the Conservative party vote.

This lot have shown the Conservative party are in big trouble.

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2 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

You said that before and I'm not going reiterate why I think you're completely wrong to blame anyone other than Theresa May because the article that @T just linked https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/06/ivan-rogers-no-deal-is-now-the-most-likely-outcome/ is far more articulate, knowledgeable and objective.

But in case you can't be bothered to read the whole thing (it really is worth a read and covers some of your other points as well, even includes a footballing analogy at one point) here is one snippet:

I now think a ‘no deal’ outcome the probability, for reasons I shall explain. But I have thought it a serious risk since autumn 2016, and been saying to private sector and university audiences since then that I thought the risk was vastly underpriced by the markets, most companies and the media. Why? Because the previous Prime Minister kicked off the negotiation process with two speeches – at the 2016 Party Conference and at Lancaster House in January 2017, which I think frankly were two of the most ill-advised speeches given by a British Prime Minister since the War. Those speeches revealed a fundamental misunderstanding of the nature of our post-Brexit options.

Of all the journalists/commentators/experts/politicians I have read on Brexit, and I've read a few, Ivan Rogers is the one I place most store by. Of course Theresa May thought she could do without his wisdom and experience.

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I don't see how 'no deal' can happen with so many against it. Boris might say we will go out with no deal if necessary, but surely all the evidence points to parliament as a whole not allowing that to happen?  Even tory mps have come out and said they will vote the govt down if it looks as if they are heading for a no deal.

So isn't no deal just a fantasy? 

 

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2 minutes ago, lake district canary said:

I don't see how 'no deal' can happen with so many against it. Boris might say we will go out with no deal if necessary, but surely all the evidence points to parliament as a whole not allowing that to happen?  Even tory mps have come out and said they will vote the govt down if it looks as if they are heading for a no deal.

So isn't no deal just a fantasy? 

 

For Parliament to stop No-Deal happening it has to vote For something. Which so far it has not done. It has to vote to revoke Article 50, or for May's Withdrawal Deal, or for some other deal, which would have to be acceptable to the EU. There is a clear majority of MPs opposed to No-Deal but so far no majority for any of the ways of stopping it. And without that No-Deal will happen.

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14 minutes ago, lake district canary said:

I don't see how 'no deal' can happen with so many against it. Boris might say we will go out with no deal if necessary, but surely all the evidence points to parliament as a whole not allowing that to happen?  Even tory mps have come out and said they will vote the govt down if it looks as if they are heading for a no deal.

So isn't no deal just a fantasy?

As was brexit

And don't pay too much heed of what is being said in this PM election, as much is aimed at the 160,000.

Get elected then it matters far call on what is delivered Again much as with brexit.

Feed the gormless a load of shy,te then backpedal - all the time blaming those who.... err.... pointed put that it could never happen.

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7 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said:

For Parliament to stop No-Deal happening it has to vote For something. Which so far it has not done. It has to vote to revoke Article 50, or for May's Withdrawal Deal, or for some other deal, which would have to be acceptable to the EU. There is a clear majority of MPs opposed to No-Deal but so far no majority for any of the ways of stopping it. And without that No-Deal will happen.

Obviously.

The longer it is left, the nearer the cliff edge becomes - which will make any way out more acceptable.

As it stands there is not enough time to agree a new deal and have it cleared by Oct 31st - so to talk of that being a possibility is rather silly.

May's deal was put together on the basis that it would be opposed.

None of this is very hard to grasp once you recognise that no one, bar a bunch of dim witted voters, wanted this in the first place.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, SwindonCanary said:

After Yesterday evenings , leadership debate it shows all of them are a disgrace and not fit to run the country.  Each one mentioned  we must fear a general election as this may let  Corbyn/ Labour in. 

The lying lot, know for a fact that a general election will most certainly see the Brexit party with a strong lead, destroying the Conservative party vote.

This lot have shown the Conservative party are in big trouble.

Conservatives have a choice, destroy themselves by ignoring the Brexit Party or destroy Labour by doing a deal with the Brexit Party. I actually believe the MPs are arrogant enough to go for self-immolation 

The more  Johnson  pharts around with indicative votes the more he will lose the country to the Brexit Party as it makes him look like May Mk 2. That leaves him with a no-deal exit as his best option but he'll find it difficult to navigate the process through Parliament.

Edited by Rock The Boat

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51 minutes ago, lake district canary said:

I don't see how 'no deal' can happen with so many against it. Boris might say we will go out with no deal if necessary, but surely all the evidence points to parliament as a whole not allowing that to happen?  Even tory mps have come out and said they will vote the govt down if it looks as if they are heading for a no deal.

So isn't no deal just a fantasy? 

 

MPs last week rejected a plan to introduce legislation designed to prevent the UK leaving the EU with no deal, with 309 voting against and 298 voting in favour.

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3 minutes ago, Van wink said:

MPs last week rejected a plan to introduce legislation designed to prevent the UK leaving the EU with no deal, with 309 voting against and 298 voting in favour.

As I understand the ploy, the effective aim was not to stop the UK leaving with No-Deal but only to stop that happening on October 31 2019. It was a delaying tactic. And, as VW says, even that was rejected. Of course, that is not to say MPs will keep on failing to vote for something that will actually stop No-Deal as opposed to just putting it of for another month or so.

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The Ivan Rogers article is well worth reading as he has inside knowledge and experience. For the brexiteers he is not arguing against Brexit but he is pointing out the practical realities. 

The simple reality is that there are trade offs like any deal. and as someone who negotiates international deals I would not want to negotiate from the UK position. No  deal as an order of magnitude will cost the UK  1000pa per head and the Germans 100 pa per head. So both sides want a deal but the EU knows no deal will hurt the UK more  so whatever happens the EU will always have more negotiating power. That is just practical reality 

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18 minutes ago, Van wink said:

MPs last week rejected a plan to introduce legislation designed to prevent the UK leaving the EU with no deal, with 309 voting against and 298 voting in favour.

There is an other way which I'm suRe will be used if the idiot PM does not push for this nonsense to stop.

 

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Bill said:

There is an other way which I'm suRe will be used if the idiot PM does not push for this nonsense to stop.

 

yeh yeh yeh Billy.......do tell us......have you had time to work out how aRticle 50 will be Revoked yet?

 

 

Edited by Van wink

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4 hours ago, Van wink said:

Ha ha, ha, ha, ha, "when I have time"

As for which school I went to, when you get time, you can also make a comprehensive case as to why which particular comprehensive school I went to is of any relevence to this forum or indeed to a flowerpot man.

It is relevent as it brings into question the integrity of your posts (yet again).

Your failure once more to back up your claims speaks volumes.

For someone of your age to claim he attended a comprehensive school is absurd, and brings into question your other claims. You seem to have a very ose association. Happy to post up what you know to be a lie whenever you have been shown to have misrepresented (that's being generous) facts or the correct story.

These lies are usually libellous, intended as an insult and are often accompanied by foul language. Something that brings into question your mental stability, and why you seem to have little selse to do bar post on this thread from 7am until the early hours.

I will leave others to work that out - as I have done with your numerous altered egos.

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Just now, Bill said:

It is relevent as it brings into question the integrity of your posts (yet again).

Your failure once more to back up your claims speaks volumes.

For someone of your age to claim he attended a comprehensive school is absurd, and brings into question your other claims. You seem to have a very ose association. Happy to post up what you know to be a lie whenever you have been shown to have misrepresented (that's being generous) facts or the correct story.

These lies are usually libellous, intended as an insult and are often accompanied by foul language. Something that brings into question your mental stability, and why you seem to have little selse to do bar post on this thread from 7am until the early hours.

I will leave others to work that out - as I have done with your numerous altered egos.

making stuff up again Bill......spend your time dealing with genuine questions that you have been asked.....not persuing the delusions you suffer from

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4 minutes ago, Van wink said:

yeh yeh yeh Billy.......do tell us......have you had time to work out how aRticle 50 will be Revoked yet?

rather strange re-action from someone of your age 🙄

ta ra, back to work

do enjoy your basket weaving class 🤪

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CM, you can say TM was to blame at the start and I would agree. 

But parliament denied her her deal and forced the indicative vote to enable parliament to take control. 

It failed. It wasn't a half chance like you claim, it was an open goal. The ERG were done they had no defense. Lib Dems voted against, SNP abstained. 

You can deny it all you like, but it will remain a fact. If we end up with a hard brexit you will rue that chance.

 

 

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Just now, Bill said:

rather strange re-action from someone of your age 🙄

ta ra, back to work

do enjoy your basket weaving class 🤪

Still no idea then

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Article 50 will NOT be revoked, if the French block an extension then we will have no deal.

This is the most likely outcome

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35 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Still no idea then

Has Bill got a plan, that is the $64,000 question

 

Or, in his case, the £1,000 question

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In the last decade or so politicians have imposed many things on society.

In the building trade we have seen ridiculous levels of health and safety. Ex I have been on new building sites where you get a yellow card if you fail to use a stepladder in the correct way.two offences and you lose your job. I have seen bricklaying crews sent home for not having suncream! I could go on all night about CCTV, ect ect but I will leave you with that.

We have had stupid accreditation systems hoisted on us and a health safety exam which can only be described as ludicrous. Ex if you get a nail stuck in your foot do you

A , take it out and say nothing

B , leave it in because your boot won't fall off

C, inform the Safety officer and get it treated.

I was just wondering what have politicians imposed on themselves. Do they have to have accreditation to prove they can do the job?

I think at the very least they should be wearing hard hats in the commons 😉

My point is, there seems to be quite alot of c r a p politicians so isn't it time they reaped what they sow 😉

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17 minutes ago, Bagster said:

CM, you can say TM was to blame at the start and I would agree. 

But parliament denied her her deal and forced the indicative vote to enable parliament to take control. 

It failed. It wasn't a half chance like you claim, it was an open goal. The ERG were done they had no defense. Lib Dems voted against, SNP abstained. 

You can deny it all you like, but it will remain a fact. If we end up with a hard brexit you will rue that chance.

I don't dispute that I would have liked the indicative votes to produce more than they did but to describe it as an open goal is ridiculous.

Parliament 'took control' only on a temporary and very tenuous basis and you should recognise that there is a massive clue in name - they were 'indicative' votes only and even had one of them been won it would have meant nothing more than an indication of what a proportion of MPs wanted - the closest was Ken Clark's Customs Union which lost by 3 (273 v 276) so 100 abstentions which went far wider than just the SNP but a very, very much closer result than Theresa May's deal even though that was repeatedly pushed heavily whipped and with other more unscrupulous pressures applied.

So if TM had any desire, or even intention, to get a compromise deal through the House, the indicative votes still showed very clearly that there were several that had considerably more support (or less opposition!!) than the one she was trying to force through.

So even if Ken Clark's motion or CM2 ( again only lost by 21 - much closer than TM's deal) had got the few extra votes necessary it wouldn't have mandated the government to do anything and it most definitely wouldn't have swayed TM's conviction that she was right and the rest of us were wrong.

It was an interesting exercise but it was never going anywhere unless the Government had a genuine intent to act on the result which it clearly didn't - if they had they would have continued the exercise, progressively knocked out the least popular options to see if one eventually did emerge that commanded a majority.

In a very similar vein you could argue that the 'negotiations' with Labour were another open goal missed but again the reality is that the open goal never existed because no consessions/compromises were ever on offer during those talks.

I'm sorry but it was only ever going to be TM's deal or the ongoing shambles - which actually is pretty much the same thing when you consider what a mess we'd be in now if her deal had gone through.

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Unfortunately what will probably happen is whatever path is easiest for appeasement / political cowardice. 

If Boris gets in, he will promise Tories an immediate Brexit by Oct 31 and will cement himself to that position at their party conference. Then the rally will be around "Stop Corbin / the end of civilization is here if people elect Socialists.(Labour)." Tory MPs will then fall into line under the thinking of "we'll muddle through under January under Boris somehow"

(Same here in US with "lets put asylum seekers into camps / rip up healthcare / trash our allies / start a war / collude on elections"  but heaven forbid anyone elect Solicialists (Democrat). Republicans know this is anti-constitutional clap trap and a rallying call to white nationalists but they are falling in line) 

The question is what are the true opponents going to do? Twitter is for tweeting, it does nothing to influence the country. Someone, so group, are going to have to stand up and say "no, not on my watch". Frankly those who are taken in by the political con job are not going to change their minds, but fortunately in both US and UK a large minority of the country has not voted at all. This is where the future of our countries can be won - persuading those who think that their voices don't count or they don't care much about politics to get involved. 

It's going to need a leader, media and money. None of those should be in short supply, and we can assume that screams of outrage will be thrown up about lack of patriotism, envy of the rich, wanting to destroy our Judeo / Christian culture etc etc. 

 

 

 

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