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OT - EU straw poll...

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5 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

If you look at the ComRes poll, basically what is going on when people are asked about Boris, the Leave/Brexit vote switches back to the Tories in quite substantial numbers.

was that poll predicated upon Johnson delivering brexit ?

 

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3 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

I put it out there for posters to comment on. I know you like to p!ss on anything that isn't sourced from your own keyboard which goes a long way to explain why so many have blocked you, petal.

or in reality point out where you are wrong

something I'm happy to do for either side of the argument

so my suggestion is that you stop lying and I will not need to correct you

 

ps don't give away who you are so easily by using naughty words

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26 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said:

A VONC doesn't of itself stop a No-Deal Brexit. It would be yet another example of MPs voting against, when if they want to stop No-Deal they have to vote for some alternative.

it is ideologically easier to see Farage and Johnson in an unholy alliance than the Remain/Soft Brexit parties, but if one can draw a conclusion from Peterborough it is that the hard Brexit vote may well get split. Leading to a rough alliance of anti-Tory/Farage parties -  and leaders - that might hate each other but would grin and bear it either to stop Brexit or make it much softer.

But either eventuality would count as the significant shift in the UK (typed it right this time) political landscape I  increasingly think is necessary to break the impasse.

 

I appreciate that, but it could well lead to a GE and in those circumstances I would be amazed if the EU didnt grant a further extension.

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5 minutes ago, ricardo said:

It's Boris's to lose by the look of things.

They say lay the favourite in a Tory leadership election but this looks unwise to me.

the favourit has not won for some time........Cameron, Major, Thatcher...even Heath

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1 minute ago, Van wink said:

I appreciate that, but it could well lead to a GE and in those circumstances I would be amazed if the EU didnt grant a further extension.

wot no brexit ?

oh dear

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2 minutes ago, ricardo said:

It's Boris's to lose by the look of things.

They say lay the favourite in a Tory leadership election but this looks unwise to me.

That is why his press briefing was very tightly managed today. Only 6 questions, a bit of Trumpian booing, and no allowing Johnson to veer off script. The cynical feckers know he is a liabilty but are still backing him because he is their best chance of staying in power.

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Just now, Bill said:

the favourit has not won for some time........Cameron, Major, Thatcher...even Heath

Exactly that's why it has been profitable to lay the favourite rather than back it.

With Boris that looks about to change.

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2 minutes ago, Herman said:

That is why his press briefing was very tightly managed today. Only 6 questions, a bit of Trumpian booing, and no allowing Johnson to veer off script. The cynical feckers know he is a liabilty but are still backing him because he is their best chance of staying in power.

They are politicians, what else do you expect?

Edited by Van wink

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1 minute ago, ricardo said:

Exactly that's why it has been profitable to lay the favourite rather than back it.

With Boris that looks about to change.

The timing helps him, not too much time for foot in mouth.

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1 minute ago, Van wink said:

 

They are politicians, what else do you expect?

Integrity, morals, putting the country first. Doing what is right would be nice, if somewhat old fashioned.

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1 minute ago, ricardo said:

Exactly that's why it has been profitable to lay the favourite rather than back it.

With Boris that looks about to change.

That would hinge on how many Tory MPs are looking to the immeiate future and how many see beyond the next year or so.

Johnson will spout whatever he thinks will benefit him as he has done from the days of being a 'journalist'. the only problem there is that he has consistently failed to deliver, being sacked twice for blatant lying, costing umpteen millions as mayor and cocking up on a Mr Bean level at Foreign Secretary.

There is only so much a 'team' can do to protect him, and his performance as mayor and in the house has shown his lack of understanding of his brief would be a major disaster.

So either hope that changes massively or not take that rik.

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4 minutes ago, Herman said:

Integrity, morals, putting the country first. Doing what is right would be nice, if somewhat old fashioned.

Have a listen to Rory Stewart, someone I would vote for as an MP irrespective of party allegiance.

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1 minute ago, Bill said:

That would hinge on how many Tory MPs are looking to the immeiate future and how many see beyond the next year or so.

Johnson will spout whatever he thinks will benefit him as he has done from the days of being a 'journalist'. the only problem there is that he has consistently failed to deliver, being sacked twice for blatant lying, costing umpteen millions as mayor and cocking up on a Mr Bean level at Foreign Secretary.

There is only so much a 'team' can do to protect him, and his performance as mayor and in the house has shown his lack of understanding of his brief would be a major disaster.

So either hope that changes massively or not take that rik.

He is a shallow individual but the H of C is hardly choc a bloc with candidates with gravitas.

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So, poor, ickle wickle Nige is having a little cry about a comment from Jo Brand. 

Turns out the ****-starved, angsty ones on here who love calling people snowflakes can't get their tongues out of the backside of a snowflake. These are strange times indeed. 

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6 minutes ago, Bill said:

Have a listen to Rory Stewart, someone I would vote for as an MP irrespective of party allegiance.

Yeh he launched his campaign in a circus tent......thought it would appeal.

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6 minutes ago, ricardo said:

He is a shallow individual but the H of C is hardly choc a bloc with candidates with gravitas.

there are enough, but that is not what the populace want

point out the truth is too uncomfortable for many, so a 'character' is what they demand

be it Farage, Johnson of Rees-Mogg

all shysters of the highest order

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2 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Yeh he launched his campaign in a circus tent......thought it would appeal.

Jesus launched his 'campaign' in a stable - or so we are led to believe

it is the words and deeds of both I judge

 

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Unscientific, non data led views on Johnson from work colleagues.

Those that follow politics think he is a scumbag that shouldn't be anywhere near leading the country, includes voters of all major parties.

Those that don't follow politics closely quite like him and is probably one of the only politicians they can name.

Sadly for us there are millions in the second group.

Luckily for us they are the most likely not to vote.

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1 hour ago, Bill said:

was that poll predicated upon Johnson delivering brexit ?

You balance the true accuracy

"Manchester University politics professor devoted a thread to breaking down "a number of obvious methodological problems" with the poll, calling it "badly designed". In the thread, he elaborates on several assumptions that the poll has made.

He starts by pointing out the poll assumes both the candidates and their political positions are equally well-known by the respondents.

In addition, "The poll assumes voters are good at predicting their own behaviour in a hypothetical situation," he said. "They really aren't. There is a lot of good evidence on that."

It's "uttlerly nuts" to assume people can predict, after the year in politics we've had, their future reaction to the unknown impact of a new prime minister on the political context.

He also warned against the electoral maths being done on seat changes, suggesting it's simply not possible to translate votes into seats with the shifting party landscape.

"There's nowt wrong with the fieldwork or representativeness of this poll," he said. "It's just badly designed, pretending to give info that its simply not possible for a poll to give."

Johnson's campaign launch coincides with the poll results"        ............there's a coincidence 😕

 

The question put, as it would be thought in a court, was a leading question ie posing a hypothetical question to prompt a desired response. However that will not be the understanding of the average voter. They will simply see the headline. They will not see this speculation either

"Using ComRes voting intention figures, Electoral Calculus predicted that Boris Johnson would win the Tories a massive 140-seat majority at the next general election."

He would do so, they allege, "by winning the support of a mere third of the public thanks to the fact that smaller parties are also expected to prosper and divide the Labour vote."    As they did in Peterborough ?

The idea that a party winning 33% of the vote could gain a 140 majority is beyond absurd, but that is what the dimwitted are being asked to believe, and will believe.  Because, as has been seen on here umpteen times, the dimwitted never look beyond the headlines. If they did they might just consider

" “It’s safe to say that we’re treating a poll published by Boris’s former campaign manager in a paper that Boris writes a column for with a healthy dose of scepticism.” "

 

 

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7 hours ago, Van wink said:

I appreciate that, but it could well lead to a GE and in those circumstances I would be amazed if the EU didnt grant a further extension.

I would not be at all amazed if the EU did not grant another extension. This is partly the point I have been making, with reference to Macron, and how others are coming round to his view. I do think there needs to be a change in the UK political landscape to break this impasse, and a general election is the most obvious way in which that could happen. But then it would depend what there result was.

Say Boris wins back a majority for the Tories and demands significant changes to the Withdrawal Agreement, such as to do with the backstop. Changes the EU will never agree to. Why would it agree to keep on talking in that case? At the risk of repeating myself, the EU means what it says about not renegotiating the WA, at least not to facilitate any kind of harder Brexit Johnson et al might want.

If a GE produced  a government/parliament bent on softening Brexit then the EU would be willing to renegotiate the future political settlement (which is in effect what determines the hardness or softness of Brexit) to that effect. And if that meant tweaking the WA to ensure those beneficial changes could not be overturned by a future government of Brexiters then I believe the EU would be agreeable. In that case, yes, the EU probably would allow an extension.

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So when would this election take place ?

After Boris or some other brexit nutter was made PM it would appear.

That could not happen until after summer, as Parliament is in recess from 20th July - 7th September

And as the conference season means it is back in recess from 14th September - 9th October

We then have to suppose there is a 2/3rds majority in the house who will agree to another GE,  that it can be squeezed in with enough time for the winning party to ask the EU for an extension, who will then have to meet to consider that demand for an extension

........................... all to be completed in 21 days or less  !

I'm not too sure if I have enough deary, dear me at this time of the morning 😕

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I cant see a 2/3 majority vote for a GE but could envisage circumstances where a VONC would be won.

I would be surprised if the EU wouldnt offer a further extension until either a new government is formed or if that doesnt happen the outcome of a GE is known. The EU are very capable of meeting at short notice. 

Edited by Van wink

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1 hour ago, Bill said:

So when would this election take place ?

After Boris or some other brexit nutter was made PM it would appear.

That could not happen until after summer, as Parliament is in recess from 20th July - 7th September

And as the conference season means it is back in recess from 14th September - 9th October

We then have to suppose there is a 2/3rds majority in the house who will agree to another GE,  that it can be squeezed in with enough time for the winning party to ask the EU for an extension, who will then have to meet to consider that demand for an extension

........................... all to be completed in 21 days or less  !

I'm not too sure if I have enough deary, dear me at this time of the morning 😕

You maintain Brexit wont happen, how do you envisage it being stopped?

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12 minutes ago, Van wink said:

You maintain Brexit wont happen, how do you envisage it being stopped?

Withdrawal of Art 50 at some point

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20 minutes ago, Van wink said:

I cant see a 2/3 majority vote for a GE but could envisage circumstances where a VONC would be won.

I would be surprised if the EU wouldnt offer a further extension until either a new government is formed or if that doesnt happen the outcome of a GE is known. The EU are very capable of meeting at short notice. 

here is no time scale for a GE

A VONC threat has been shot across the bows with yesterday's vote, The implication there is that there would be time to form a 'non loony' government which would certainly stop a no deal.

Given that both sides will be well aware of these possibilities they will not be reacting but acting in response to whatever action emerges.

If I can work this out then I am sure both sides will have already.

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Bill
   29 minutes ago,  Van wink said: 

You maintain Brexit wont happen, how do you envisage it being stopped?

"Withdrawal of Art 50 at some point"

 

 

That indeed is the mechanism.  Interested to know your thoughts on what events will lead up to the withdrawal of article 50.

 

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Withdrawal of article 50 would be the single most dangerous act!!

Only the truly stupid would over rule a democratic vote. It just won't happen.

There is no reason why we could not move into EFTA whilst there was an impasse in HOC.

In fact article 50 should've moved us immediately into the EFTA arrangement. It simply does not make sense for us to turn up to meetings where we really are not welcome and to waste time, energy and resources on European elections.

Then all the negotiations could've taken place without time restrictions.

Politicians seem to be paid quite well for being absolutely dire, maybe we should privatise them 😉

Edited by Bagster

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9 minutes ago, Bagster said:

Withdrawal of article 50 would be the single most dangerous act!!

Only the truly stupid would over rule a democratic vote. It just won't happen.

There is no reason why we could not move into EFTA whilst there was an impasse in HOC.

In fact article 50 should've moved us immediately into the EFTA arrangement. It simply does not make sense for us to turn up to meetings where we really are not welcome and to waste time, energy and resources on European elections.

Then all the negotiations could've taken place without time restrictions.

Politicians seem to be paid quite well for being absolutely dire, maybe we should privatise them 😉

fisherman-rod-fishing-eps10-vector-260nw

you'll have to do better than that to get a bite, hand crank

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Oh fantastic, you're still going with

" All brexiteers are van wink"

Well sonny, I already called you out on this and you went very very quite.

Quite happy to have sports desk Pete confirm IP addresses and I am sure NN will be ecstatic with the 5k you will donate 😉

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