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OT - EU straw poll...

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Before we get bogged down in the minutiae of the results can we just spend a few minutes thinking of the poor people that hate seeing this thread on the front page of the forum. It's not going anywhere for a while😂

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1 minute ago, SwindonCanary said:

Maybe as adults, you can look at the result and act on it.

Ok. We are staying in the EU. It's the will of the people after all.

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24 minutes ago, kick it off said:

You're wrong then. The Lib Dems have been unashamedly pro-EU and campaigned for these elections literally saying "A vote for LD is a vote against Brexit". That's after they had been all but politically wiped out post-coalition. They have seen an astonishing resurgence both in locals and in Euro elections. Greens have always been resolutely pro-EU too.

To try and deny that people are voting for Greens and LDs in the Euro elections over Brexit, when both have made their entire campaign for these elections a single issue anti-Brexit campaign (as did the SNP too for the record) is to either be incredibly poorly informed, or so blinkered you can't see the wood for the trees.

This........

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16 minutes ago, kick it off said:

You're wrong then. The Lib Dems have been unashamedly pro-EU and campaigned for these elections literally saying "A vote for LD is a vote against Brexit". That's after they had been all but politically wiped out post-coalition. They have seen an astonishing resurgence both in locals and in Euro elections. Greens have always been resolutely pro-EU too.

To try and deny that people are voting for Greens and LDs in the Euro elections over Brexit, when both have made their entire campaign for these elections a single issue anti-Brexit campaign (as did the SNP too for the record) is to either be incredibly poorly informed, or so blinkered you can't see the wood for the trees.

I simply disagree. There are people in all the other parties other than Brexit who have party alliegances beyond Brexit. There are people who will vote Tory, Labour, LD or even Green ( a much newer party) whatever they say about Brexit. This does not apply to the Brexit Party.

 

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4 minutes ago, SwindonCanary said:

Maybe as adults, you can look at the result and act on it.

What do you want me to do? Aside from explain the obvious to people who are in denial about Remain having battered Brexit last night?

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1 minute ago, ron obvious said:

I simply disagree. There are people in all the other parties other than Brexit who have party alliegances beyond Brexit. There are people who will vote Tory, Labour, LD or even Green ( a much newer party) whatever they say about Brexit. This does not apply to the Brexit Party.

 

Oh yeah, there was nobody who voted Brexit party last night who would vote Tory in a GE for example are there? Jesus Christ you lot are pathetic, is this kind of babbling nonsense the best you can do?

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2 hours ago, Herman said:

Hard Brexit party does very well.

Hard Remain parties do very well.

Labour's fence sitting has finally caught up with them.

The Tories have destroyed themselves.

And we are still very divided nation and no clearer to a solution to where we want to go.

No nearer, Herman. I don't know how significant these results are for the future. It might just be the electorate getting its "vote against" rage (the kind of movement seen with Trump and other mad populists who in effect have no sane policies for anything but have tapped into  the inchoate anger of the dispossessed) out of its system, and politics will revert to normal from now on. I wouldn't put money on that happening. I think we are in for more of the same.

And there is the key question of whether there will be a referendum on Brexit and if so whether it will come before or after the next general election.

What I would put some money on is my previous prediction, that the next election will be won by at the very least by an anti-Tory coalition, if  - big "if" - Labour in the meantime has switched to being a pro-Remain party.

Now I must read Bagster's declamatory "factual" assessment of how things are apparently not going well with the EU project on the continent and tick off the ways in which it doesn't correspond to what I think is happening...😻

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2 minutes ago, kick it off said:

Oh yeah, there was nobody who voted Brexit party last night who would vote Tory in a GE for example are there? Jesus Christ you lot are pathetic, is this kind of babbling nonsense the best you can do?

There may be some who'd vote Tory even if they were anti-Brexit, but I'd suggest this is a much smaller number than those who vote for the other parties whatever their Brexit stance.

And could you please stop insulting me? It's that sort of superior, patronising know-it-all attitude that's got us to the present impasse.

 

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If you want a measure of their intelligence, Brexit Party MEPs are celebrating being elected to something they don't think should exist.

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Just now, ron obvious said:

There may be some who'd vote Tory even if they were anti-Brexit, but I'd suggest this is a much smaller number than those who vote for the other parties whatever their Brexit stance.

And could you please stop insulting me? It's that sort of superior, patronising know-it-all attitude that's got us to the present impasse.

 

Well stop being deliberately dense then. It's that sort of deliberately obtuse attitude and reluctance to accept facts that has caused this entire mess.

You're making ridiculous arguments. LD, Green and all the others made this equally single issue. LD no longer have a large support base, Greens have never really had one. If you look at the swing to Green and LD which has come from Labour and Tory, compared to the swing which has gone Brexit from Labour and Tory then it's inarguable that the Brexit party came out on top.

Even by your own measure, which is those who wouldn't normally vote for LD or Green, the new voters for those two was much higher than the new (as in didn't vote UKIP last time) voters for Brexit party.

Take the totals out of it, measure JUST the swing votes, and you get the same result - Remain won the evening.

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Well that was interesting! The political landscape is changing across the UK and regardless if Brexit is delivered or not no longer will we be a 2 party political nation. The same could be said across the EU itself. Exciting times.

It does seem unlikely the UK will get another extension granted with Farage back at the EU. There will be no soft Brexit, either we are in or we are out. There may well be another referendum but it will be close, very close. If Boris wins the Tory leadership contest, then I think the leavers will have the momentum. 

Great to see a **** night for Macron too!

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6 minutes ago, Hoola Han Solo said:

And you sound like a nasty little bully.

He is, and what is this soyboy nonsence about?

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3 minutes ago, kick it off said:

Well stop being deliberately dense then. It's that sort of deliberately obtuse attitude and reluctance to accept facts that has caused this entire mess.

You're making ridiculous arguments. LD, Green and all the others made this equally single issue. LD no longer have a large support base, Greens have never really had one. If you look at the swing to Green and LD which has come from Labour and Tory, compared to the swing which has gone Brexit from Labour and Tory then it's inarguable that the Brexit party came out on top.

Even by your own measure, which is those who wouldn't normally vote for LD or Green, the new voters for those two was much higher than the new (as in didn't vote UKIP last time) voters for Brexit party.

Take the totals out of it, measure JUST the swing votes, and you get the same result - Remain won the evening.

LDs, Greens, SNP, Labour & Tory do not only appeal to single issue voters, the Brexit party has only one reason to vote for it.

You're dressing up your opinions as fact, as usual. I don't KNOW what the proportions are & I don't pretend to. My OPINION is that it's not as cut & dried as you seem to think.

And If you want to swap personal insults I'm happy to do so.

 

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Posted (edited)

Interesting times.

I've been slating the libdems ever since they took their campaigning for the EU stance, yet that policy - which seemed barmy at the time in the face of the referendum result, has allowed them a lifeline, late in the day.  Labour and Tory party have been so poor that with a brexit party pulling in one direction, we have seen the rise of the remain vote pulling in the other, leaving the labour and tories in no mans land.

There is no doubt that the remain vote is going to get stronger as a result of this - but the Greens and Libdems will HAVE to join forces if they want to challenge the brexit party at the next general election, which now can't come soon enough for me.

It must be totally obvious to everyone that parliament as it is will not be able to get behind a no deal vote, ever, so even if an arch brexiteer gets in as pm, they will still have the same problem as May.  And even if labour sort themselves out and decide one way or the other whether to campaign for remain or leave, they will alienate half their voters - and yet if they stay as they are they are as f*****d as the tories. 

So now we are faced with months of tory wrangling followed by more of the same as we had under May until we get a general election.  I always thought a general election would be the worst thing that could happen while brexit was being negotiated, but with the rise of the brexit party and a clear remain party emerging, bring it on.  I've been voting either libdem or greens for years, it now looks as if they are going to become a real force - but they do need to work together at the next general election or their vote will be split and that could let the brexit party in by default.

 

Edited by lake district canary

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Ron, the LibDems main party policy title was "**** to Brexit". It wasn't hidden.

image.png.5c09e1c929ea1302b907a22b113e1158.png

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8 minutes ago, Capt. Pants said:

There may well be another referendum but it will be close, very close. If Boris wins the Tory leadership contest, then I think the leavers will have the momentum.

Don't follow your reasoning there - Boris would undoubtedly pull some of Farage's voters back to the Tories, thereby splitting the Brexit vote which last night was tightly focussed into the Brexit Party, and much would depend on the referendum question which is unlikely to be the simple binary choice we had before.

But I can't see where he would get the rest of the votes he would need for a no-deal Brexit from, especially as he'd probably lose some further moderate Conservative voters to the Lib Dems.

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Yes the LibDems had a good showing, but nowhere near that of Brexit and let's not forget, not everyone voted for them on a anti Brexit vote. Those saying that remain won overall are counting all the LibDem votes,  when really they should be counting the increase from last time.

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The thing is Ron is this, the better the Eurosceptic parties did last night, then the more likely it is to pull the EU back to something like they would be happy with. 

So yes the brexit party won but what did they win?

conversely I think it will have a Remain effect.

In our reality tho nothing has really changed and I can't see anything changing unless we have a GE .

Parliament will block a no deal so the EU won't budge, therefore the only brexit the new pm can get is a soft one.will the erg vote for this, very doubtful but maybe.

If we get another extension, brexit will be over!!

 

 

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Hang on just a second with this remain vs leave vote totals, if we're adding the LDs, Greens and SNP together to get 45‰ then surely the Labour and Conservative vote totals have to be added to the Leave side as both those parties stood on a platform of "observing the referendum result" last GE? 

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18 minutes ago, ron obvious said:

LDs, Greens, SNP, Labour & Tory do not only appeal to single issue voters, the Brexit party has only one reason to vote for it.

You're dressing up your opinions as fact, as usual. I don't KNOW what the proportions are & I don't pretend to. My OPINION is that it's not as cut & dried as you seem to think.

And If you want to swap personal insults I'm happy to do so.

 

Well look at the proportions then. The info on vote swings is widely available. LD and Greens were very clear that this was a single issue vote, as were the SNP. To try and say people voted for them in this specific election for other reasons is ridiculous and doesn’t bear scrutiny. In other elections that’s fine but this one could not have been clearer that it was an anti-brexit vote. Make all the excuses you want but that’s reality. See above ‘**** to brexit’ Lib Dem policy if you need further clarification.

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2 minutes ago, SwindonCanary said:

Yes the LibDems had a good showing, but nowhere near that of Brexit and let's not forget, not everyone voted for them on a anti Brexit vote. Those saying that remain won overall are counting all the LibDem votes,  when really they should be counting the increase from last time.

If you want to play that game.

Brexit Party (Ukip) = +4 new seats.

LibDems = +14 new seats.

Greens = +4 new seats.

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1 minute ago, Canary Wundaboy said:

Hang on just a second with this remain vs leave vote totals, if we're adding the LDs, Greens and SNP together to get 45‰ then surely the Labour and Conservative vote totals have to be added to the Leave side as both those parties stood on a platform of "observing the referendum result" last GE? 

Precisely CW. But both you & I know it's not that simple, as we all know they're both lying to a greater or lesser extent, & almost impossible to say where the majority of their voters Brexit allegiances lie.

The only conclusion I can come to is that is that it's very close.

 

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Canary Wundaboy said:

Hang on just a second with this remain vs leave vote totals, if we're adding the LDs, Greens and SNP together to get 45‰ then surely the Labour and Conservative vote totals have to be added to the Leave side as both those parties stood on a platform of "observing the referendum result" last GE? 

I think the divisions of those parties are so pronounced that who was left is not really clear. I voted Labour at the GE but tactically, not because I wanted brexit. I also think that given the ambiguity of their Euro campaign then it’s disingenuous to add those on to Leave just because you’re adding parties that very clearly stated they were an anti brexit vote

Edited by kick it off

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It is totally clear that neither remain or brexit won last night and this was a victory for no-one.  All it has done is stake out the battle lines again, that there are many people who want brexit and there are many people who want remain.  The tories and labour have been so useless that the people have spoken and drawn attention again to the dilemna we have in politics. 

No one wins, but tories and labour definitely look down and out.

 

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13 minutes ago, ron obvious said:

LDs, Greens, SNP, Labour & Tory do not only appeal to single issue voters, the Brexit party has only one reason to vote for it.

You're dressing up your opinions as fact, as usual. I don't KNOW what the proportions are & I don't pretend to. My OPINION is that it's not as cut & dried as you seem to think.

And If you want to swap personal insults I'm happy to do so.

 

Well look at the proportions then. The info on vote swings is widely available. LD and Greens were very clear that this was a single issue vote, as were the SNP. To try and say people voted for them in this specific election for other reasons is ridiculous and doesn’t bear scrutiny. In other elections that’s fine but this one could not have been clearer that it was an anti-brexit vote. Make all the excuses you want but that’s reality. See above ‘**** to brexit’ Lib Dem policy if you need further clarification.

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2 minutes ago, kick it off said:

Well look at the proportions then. The info on vote swings is widely available. LD and Greens were very clear that this was a single issue vote, as were the SNP. To try and say people voted for them in this specific election for other reasons is ridiculous and doesn’t bear scrutiny. In other elections that’s fine but this one could not have been clearer that it was an anti-brexit vote. Make all the excuses you want but that’s reality. See above ‘**** to brexit’ Lib Dem policy if you need further clarification.

They may have advertised it as a single issue vote, but my contention is that there are voters for those parties for whom it wasn't. It is not ridiculous to say people voted for those parties for other reasons. For example, there are probably some Green voters who would quite like to leave but are far more concerned about traditional Green issues. You can guess, but it's impossible to know.

 

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Just now, ron obvious said:

They may have advertised it as a single issue vote, but my contention is that there are voters for those parties for whom it wasn't. It is not ridiculous to say people voted for those parties for other reasons. For example, there are probably some Green voters who would quite like to leave but are far more concerned about traditional Green issues. You can guess, but it's impossible to know.

 

Traditional green issues are heavily intertwined with pro eu sentiment as almost all their policies are related to international cooperation. 

Please point me to one single Green Party policy that would remotely support your assertion of having leave voters? I would bet there is literally less than 5 total green voters who support brexit. It is the home of pro-eu support and has been for decades.

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