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djc

The Saints home and hosed?

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Good news if so, if we are looking to re-sign Harrison Reed next season. Looks more likely if Southampton avoid the drop.

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I think Southampton could be celebrating a little prematurely - Swansea play Stoke who aren’t exactly brilliant themselves, and Man City have proven time and time again that when they’re on it they can absolutely batter teams, so a 9 goal swing could still happen. Pretty unlikely I know but given the teams involved, it wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest.

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Stranger things have happened, but are you seriously telling me that a Swansea side who have scored 27 all season, but conceded 54, and lost 4 of the last 5, are suddenly not only going to beat Stoke but turn around a 9 goal deficit too?

It might not surprise you, but it would certainly surprise me.

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Southampton will be fine, they are safe.

It''s Huddersfield I''d like to see come down. Not much in it with goal difference between them and Swansea.

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I think Huddersfield will get the point they need. Glad that Swansea are coming down - they will be no threat at all, whereas Southampton would have been strong.

I don''t think any of the relegated 3 will be very strong next year - can see all of them being candidates to keep going down.

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[quote user="Ian"]Stranger things have happened, but are you seriously telling me that a Swansea side who have scored 27 all season, but conceded 54, and lost 4 of the last 5, are suddenly not only going to beat Stoke but turn around a 9 goal deficit too?

It might not surprise you, but it would certainly surprise me.[/quote]

Ian, as you’re clearly very dense, let me clarify my post for you :-

Swansea won’t hammer Stoke. If you could read you’d understand that was not the team that were suggested to dish out the high scoring battering. But they might beat them 2 or 3 nil given Stoke have zero to play for. Just like when we beat West Brom 4-0. My point is that Man City could thrash Southampton easily. And that is where the 9 goal swing *could* happen coupled with a determined Swansea win. So no, not inconceivable at all 👍

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If Huddersfield are going to get a point, it has to be tonight. I can''t see Arsenal losing their final game for Wenger. I can see Swansea beating Stoke, of whom half the players probably can''t wait to leave.

It would be amusing if Huddersfield get relegated on goal difference. They have lost 4-1 to West Ham, Bournemouth, Watford, 4-0 to Bournemouth away, 5-0 to Arsenal, 4-0 and 3-0 to Spurs, 3-0 twice to Liverpool. Can''t concede like that and expect to stay up!

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[quote user="Alex "]My point is that Man City could thrash Southampton easily. And that is where the 9 goal swing *could* happen coupled with a determined Swansea win.[/quote]History shows that relegated teams suddenly start winning because the pressure is suddenly lifted and also, players want to be seen performing well to increase their chances of a move back to the Prem. So Swansea''s task becomes even more difficult, they have to win and the pressure is all on them.Relegated teams often produce shock results, for example.....Sunderland 3 Wolves 0.Is Swansea don''t score early, the longer the game goes on the more desperate they will become.I think they''re doomed.

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At this end of the season you can get some crazy results.  Who''d have forecast we''d beat WBA 4-0 - which I think was the first time we won by more than one clear goal that season ?  Or that we''d win 3-2 at Man City ?

 

Often the first goal is even more important than usual.  If the team with nothing to play for goes behind, they often crumble (like WBA did against us), whereas if they go ahead, they can relax and start to play with freedom.  For Huddersfield, who knows what sort of Arsenal team will turn up ? Especially with Wenger''s departure.  My guess is that Huddersfield will probably get the point they need from either game, but I won''t be betting on it.

 

Similarly it wouldn''t surprise me for Swansea to beat Stoke and for Man City to thrash Soton, so it''s conceivable Swansea could survive, but I think it''s more likely Swansea will bottle it and/or Man City will be, dare I say it, on the beach ?

 

What''s more interesting for me is what these final games say about the Prem and the aim of teams getting "established", the holy grail surely for teams like us ?  Before this season I''d have said Soton (top 8 finish the last few years and backed by a wealthy owner) and Stoke (10 years in the Prem and established as mid-table finishers for quite a while now) were prime candidates for teams that could feel they were getting "established", and Swansea/WBA less so, but still on the way.  Conventional wisdom has it that the 3 promoted teams are sure-fire favourites for relegation, but only one is now at any risk and even Huddersfield still have their destiny in their own hands.

 

So what does this mean ?  For me, the Prem is made up of the big 6, who are at no real risk of relegation next season and would only be at risk if they were to suffer mis-management over several seasons.  Everton are not quite in this group, but are in a stronger position than the rest.  Everyone else is at risk of relegation at the start of every season.  No team has succeeded in getting established, meaning they can rely on being in the Prem for anything beyond a single season with any confidence - they all have a risk of relegation at the start of every season and sooner or later the risk catches up with you.  The gap between mid-table i.e. 10th-13th (41 points) and still being at risk of relegation on 36 points is nothing when the margins are so narrow in football - a couple of bad decisions, a deflection, a scrambled late goal, and it''s so easy to end up with a couple of defeats from games you''d normally have won and 6 points lower down the table.

 

And it makes me think the only way to get over this is to find an owner who has - and is willing to spend - almost unlimited amounts of money, like Man City.  For all the massively rich owners in the game, I don''t see anyone else who''s bought a club outside the current top 6 who''s showing willingness to do that.

 

While it would be nice for that to happen to City, it''s making me more accepting of the fact that any time spent in the top flight nowadays is ultimately the exception rather than something we should ever count on.

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Agree ICF , that''s about how I see it...

I can see an EFL , European Football League or some sort of Superleague being established over the next few decades... Nearly each and every competition around us has a top three or four that are so established, ie richer than the rest of their competitions, that they would be easily enticed to join a Superleague...

Would it be a good or a bad thing for football in general? Difficult to say, but I wouldn''t like to see it happening...

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[quote user="Bethnal Yellow and Green"]Huddersfield getting relegated will cost Norwich £1m, so be carful what you wish for.[/quote]Hmm, that does make a difference.  Had wanted to see them back down again, but now will be rooting for Swansea to go down. One Welsh team is enough in the PL anyway.............

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RE: a superleague forming. I can see it too, but it won''t solve the problem in the long run. Teams left behind will then become successful and richer than all the others and we''ll be left in the same boat.

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If a Super League comes into being then it will be the one that sucks up all the money. I can''t see the Prem making further big money from the rites. Indeed one would expect to see a substantial decline.

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I might be dense Alex, but at least I''m not stupid...

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[quote user="Branston Pickle"]Looks like we get the £1m Bethnal was mentioning, so happy with that.[/quote]
Sorry Branston. I just posted about that. 

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3 bits of good news - Maddison''s injury not so bad, Huddersfield stay up and have to pay us more for Pritchard and Saints survive, meaning we have a better chance of signing Reed.

Only blot is Wildschut didn''t play enough games for Cardiff to secure a permanent signing for them.

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I think I read somewhere that none of the 16/17 promoted teams in the top 4 divisions got relegated in 17/18 which is pretty incredible if true.

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No change for Soton overnight unless I''m missing something ?  Swansea need to win against Stoke and have Soton lose at home to Man City with a combined 9 goal swing in goal difference. 

 

It''s very unlikely but not impossible.  Swansea will need an early goal and to have stoke give up, in which case they could win by 3 or 4 like we beat WBA in similar position.  They''re looking so awful though that it''s a pretty big ask even for this.

 

They''d then need Man City to thrash Soton by 5 or 6 clear goals which is where I think there''s the real problem for them - Soton know that a defeat by even 2 or 3 goals is still going to keep them safe.  Normally teams that lose by 5 or 6 have either given up after 3 or 4 goals or are playing a wide open game in the hope of coming back from 2 or 3 down (eg I remember us losing 5-1 at Man City one time under Lambert, at 3-1 down we were really going for it which is why they could get another couple).  Neither of those apply so I really can''t see it happening.

 

The more I think about it, the less likely I think it is to happen.

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