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ricardo

Calling it early

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My old adage about the season almost being set in stone fairly early on worked out quite well again. The points average and goal difference after a third of the season is generally a decent pointer to how the season will pan out. At that stage it was pretty clear to me that we were looking at a mid to lower finishing position. Yes, there are teams that make a late run and indeed we had that with Fulham and Millwall but apart from a very brief window it didn''t look like we were capable of something similar.Since 46 doesn''t divided by 3 evenly I went for the sixteen game marker, 8 at home and 8 away as the first indicator of how the season would go.At that stage Wolves were top and they finished top. Sunderland were bottom and they finished bottom while City were 13th and finished one place below.Those that showed marked improvement in the second two thirds of the season were Fulham +14, Millwall +11 and Preston +7Those that faded after a good start were Sheff Utd and Forest, both down 8 places and Bristol City down 7.Apart from Fulham, the teams that finished in the playoff positions were already 5th, 6th, and 7th Dear old Town were 2 points ahead of us and finished 1 point ahead.As for the rest, not much movement.

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[quote user="nutty nigel"]They finished on the same points as us.[/quote]Oh good, so twice as much improvement from us[:D]

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We finished where most experts,pundits,fans thought we would. It will be about the same next season.

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[quote user="mr footy"]We finished where most experts,pundits,fans thought we would. It will be about the same next season.[/quote]

I''ll tell you after 16 games.[:D]

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Most experts actually thought we would challenge for playoffs. 442 had us winning the damn thing! This season has been a disappointment, no question.

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Last season it was clear we couldn''t go up conceding nearly 2 goals a game.

This season it was even more obvious we couldn''t go up scoring 1 goal go a game.

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Yes, after 16 games you need to see a points average of about 1.7 to be a possible challenger.

Lets be honest with ourselves, we never got anywhere near the points or goal averages that would suggest a playoff finish.

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“Ricardo knows his stuff” ??

Fair enough, got his predictions right this season but has not had the same crystal ball the last few seasons where we’ve been concerned.

Funny how some posters have achieved a certain standing. I’m not having a go as don’t know any of you personally but interesting how people perceive each other through ‘conversation’ on here.

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I said earlier in the season that you can''t get away with being terrible at one end of the pitch no matter how good you are at the other end. You don''t have to be great at both but you have to at least be competent.

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It''s the seventh of May

It is now the 8th of May and it is Flora Day (no not that horrible spread), and they will be dancing through the streets of Helston.

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So teams generally stay roughly where they are and some improve and some get worse. And some people are so far up themselves that they are smug about stating the bleeding obvious

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We would have finished much higher if we had kept Pritchard, maybe even the play-offs.  Once they sold him the end position was pretty inevitable.  Lack of ambition and money coupled with Delia''s and Ball''s ''remainer'' thinking will keep us at this level until we get a new owner with ''leaver'' thinking. [:D]

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"Yes, after 16 games you need to see a points average of about 1.7 to be a possible challenger.

Lets be honest with ourselves, we never got anywhere near the points or goal averages that would suggest a playoff finish. "

Absolutely. You need an points average of about 1.7 to be a possible challenger. Indisputable knowledge.

Fulham''s points average after 16 games = 1.19

Whoops.

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As I''ve already said only two teams bucked the trend. Fulham who always looked like being one of the contenders and Millwall who really were the exception that proved the rule.

We all knew we didn''t have enough well before the halfway stage. I expect we all indulged in a bit of wishful thinking though.

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😀

True

That''s why the relegation stakes are usually more interesting.

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With Farke and our Turnover of players i thought we would start off slow and if Farke was any good we would then progress as the season went on with the team given time to gel

Well it turned out we never did get the progress

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I don''t think there was any particular dispute over your adage, but as usual there were some pretty big exceptions, such as Millwall. These prove the point that teams do go on runs - good and bad - and nothing at all is set in stone midway through the season.

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I never claimed that it was a hundred percent predictive but still several magnitudes better than wishful thinking or sticking a pin in.

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I also called it early, early October as I recall.

Farke is out of his depth, the Webberlution won''t work, 4th division German players and tippy tappy football will get you nowhere in this league.

And unless things change then next season, without half our current team, will be worse.

Don''t let them brainwash you, success is impossible until Webber and Farke are shown the door.

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What and go back short term thinking? With a manager from the merry go round. I dont buy it I think the model we''ve adopted is the correct one. Farke may not be the answer though. We should of done this when we got promotion under neil. We might not be saddled with Naismith for example who I actually thought was a good signing. So that shows what I know😂

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The problem is we have no idea who the exceptions will be at the time - few would have given Millwall any chance of finishing so high at mid-season -so all sides have a chance of being one of them. So you might as well stick a pin in.

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[quote user="Making Plans"]I also called it early, early October as I recall.

Farke is out of his depth, the Webberlution won''t work, 4th division German players and tippy tappy football will get you nowhere in this league.

And unless things change then next season, without half our current team, will be worse.

Don''t let them brainwash you, success is impossible until Webber and Farke are shown the door.[/quote]

Sounds like negativity for the sake of being negative to me, so I''ve bookmarked this thread and we''ll see next season what happens. The job is only half done, we still have players to get rid of and new players to get in. I guess some people are just negative by nature.....

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Then excuse is already written for next season then LDC if we are only half way through

how long does the Transition Period last for as i have not seen any progress yet

We as a club can not afford 2 more seasons like this one

what i mean by that is this season & next season we will have had more players leave and sign

do we have to wait for the 3rd season before it all comes together ?

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[quote user="norfolkngood"]Then excuse is already written for next season then LDC if we are only half way through

how long does the Transition Period last for as i have not seen any progress yet

We as a club can not afford 2 more seasons like this one

what i mean by that is this season & next season we will have had more players leave and sign

do we have to wait for the 3rd season before it all comes together ?[/quote]Quite possibly. I would have no problem with that.

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