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andyc24_uk

Balancing the books...

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So here''s a thought... We''ve been told for months that we have this impending £20m shortfall in finances which has to be plugged by player sales, and Maddison''s exit is what''s going to solve that particular crisis.

But... If Murphy leaves for £11m, and potentially Oliveira for £5m... suddenly that''s only a £4m hole in the budget, which - while not exactly nothing - is arguably much more within the realms of us being able to cover it or work around it or restructure some debt somehow. So, if (and it''s a big if, I know) that could be done... Could we find ourselves in a position where we don''t absolutely *have* to sell Maddison after all? And if so, would he be tempted to stay with us for another season?

On the second point, I''d say ''maybe'' - We know he''s got a decent head on his shoulders and he seems thus far to be one who cares about his career more than his wallet; We know he likes it here and he''s not been actively agitating for a move; and we know he''s got the talent to go to a top-6 club; if it''s the next tier down like Leicester and Everton sniffing around him, I wonder if he''d fancy another season (or at least until January) of being the outstanding player in the Championship and earning himself a deal at a much bigger and better side?

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I''d guess Maddison will want to leave asap as long as he sees it as somewhere that he will be in the first team/match day squad. Can''t imagine he would pass up on the extra wages for a year and risk his stock not being so high if Norwich struggle.

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No. chance.
Even if we were in the black we''d sell. Standing in a players way when thwre''s a good offer on the table goes against a lot of the ''plan'' Webber has set out.

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I get your reasoning but I just doubt that Maddison would want to stay if the club is not going progress, selling Murphy keeping Maddison but not strengthening doesn''t sound like a it would work to me. If Maddison was to stay I think he would have to see we are genuinely going to be promotion contender next season and without more attacking players (or even less) I think we''re more likely to be scrapping at the other end.

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I''m sure his injury has concentrated minds on both sides. Had that scan come back with something serious the whole thing could have gone down the toilet. Possibly permanently.

Risking another year here isn''t wanted by either party.

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[quote user="The Susan Boyle Fan Club"]I suspect part of the motivation will be a financial return of capital to the majority shareholders rather than investment in the playing squad[/quote]
What return of capital?

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So over the last 12 months we have sold, or will have sold -
Ja Murphy for £12m
Prtitchard for £8m
Jo Murphy for £11m
Maddison for £25m
I make that a total of around £56m and there might be more to come if Klose & Oliveira go.
Plus we''ve got a few of the higher earners (Jerome, Hoolahan) off the books and had some out on loan.
So all in all we could be looking at a 12 month income from sales and wages in excess of £60m.
More than enough to balance the books and, if the ambition is there, plenty left over to build a team capable of avoiding relegation.

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Making Plans wrote the following post at 12/06/2018 12:27 PM:

So over the last 12 months we have sold, or will have sold -

Ja Murphy for £12m

Prtitchard for £8m

Jo Murphy for £11m

Maddison for £25m

When there is next a fans forum, I suggest the question is asked about the sale of Jacob, and how the money actually works. I''m not going to betray any confidences here , but do please ask Steve, or Ben , and you will be amazed at what they tell you - I''m sure they cant reveal too much detail but the fundamental principles, including taxation, is fascinating.

Anyone thinking we walked away with £12m in our pocket is sadly mistaken.

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That may well be the case but disregarding ''financial necessities'' this is starting to feel a lot like Chase Mk II / the Roeder era with the squad packed with loan players.

Needless to say, nobody wants a repeat of that.

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When Jacob was sold it was stated the money or some of it was to repay the overdraft

i do not know what the overdraft is now or if we have one but the forecast for this year was minus 6.6 million in the accounts so may have another overdraft to pay off !

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How the "money works" applies to both sales & purchases so what we lose on the swings we gain on the roundabouts.
Either way, we have still sold players for an awful lot more than we have spent and will, spend.
Selling off the family silver is rarely the way forward.
You can get away with maybe selling one decent player a season but you are unlikely to make any progress when you flog off 4 or 5 of your better players, and release the likes of Hoolahan, in the space of 12 months.
Assumimg that we might just be good enough to avoid relegation, we are in for a very long spell in the Championship.

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Well we currently have no loan players and the three we did have, we all want back at the club. I hope it doesn''t get to Roeder levels but the loan market could be massively helpful for us.

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It mainly highlights the massive disparity in income between the top two tiers. £56m is a lot of money to you or I, but some Premier League teams can afford to spend that on a single player.

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[quote user="PurpleCanary"]
[quote user="The Susan Boyle Fan Club"]I suspect part of the motivation will be a financial return of capital to the majority shareholders rather than investment in the playing squad[/quote]
What return of capital?
[/quote]
Seems like we will never know.

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Constant reminder that strikers cost money- Nelson has a solid track record at this level.

He averages a goal every 211 minutes at Championship level- so about one every 2.5 games.

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Maddison knows he is a target and no-one would blame him in the slightest if he moved on of course.

Any lingering chance that he may have opted to stay another season surely evaporated with the sale of Murphy.

Selling your best players because it is in both parties interests is fair enough but selling to balance the books does cement us as a mid table Championship side.

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[quote user="keelansgrandad"]Maddison knows he is a target and no-one would blame him in the slightest if he moved on of course.

Any lingering chance that he may have opted to stay another season surely evaporated with the sale of Murphy.

Selling your best players because it is in both parties interests is fair enough but selling to balance the books does cement us as a mid table Championship side.[/quote]

Mid table? It''s ok we have Denis.....

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[quote user="Nuff Said"]Who the **** is going to pay £5 million for Oliviera after this season?[/quote]

Forest

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[quote user="king canary"]Constant reminder that strikers cost money- Nelson has a solid track record at this level.

He averages a goal every 211 minutes at Championship level- so about one every 2.5 games.[/quote]

Agree. That makes him a 15+ goal a season striker, which for the Championship is easily worth £5m

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[quote user="jeagle"]Agree. That makes him a 15+ goal a season striker[/quote]
Except of course for last season which is, if you are an interested buyer, the most relevant.

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True, although people may look at the fact his 8 goals still made him one of our top scorers and wonder if he would have scored more in a team that created more.

I think what you can''t argue is that he isn''t good enough for this level- he very clearly is. The question for a manager will can they harness his talent and keep him focused and firing.

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[quote user="jeagle"][quote user="king canary"]Constant reminder that strikers cost money- Nelson has a solid track record at this level.

He averages a goal every 211 minutes at Championship level- so about one every 2.5 games.[/quote]

Agree. That makes him a 15+ goal a season striker, which for the Championship is easily worth £5m[/quote]
Except of course you interpretation of this stat is utter tosh.......it assumes he plays all 46 games without getting substituited bcause he CBA, gets injured, gets suspended, gets dropped.
Take that into account and he is probably a 10 goal a season striker - bang average - if he takes the pens

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Mathematical extrapolation works like that though, you take a season (46 games) and work out that if he gets a goal every 2.5 games (which over the course of his whole career he has) then he will get 16. Simple maths.

I didn''t say he will play every game and I also didn''t say he will get 15+ goals EVERY season...obviously it varies season to season. some seasons he may get more and some less, sorry for not stating the obvious

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I think most clubs in the Championship would want Oliveira. It appears he and Farke don''t see eye to eye, so that can''t help but affect his game. With the right motivation and mindset, he''ll score 10-15 goals a season - no problem.

Cast your mind back to last pre-season and most fans were gnashing their teeth about rumours of him going to Swansea for £10m. He''s got a good agent (who''s done a lot of deals at Wolves I believe). I still think we''d get £7-8m.

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Nelson is easily worth £5m at this level and I’d be amazed if we sold him for any less.

He was actually very good last season for the first 3 months or so and had something like 6 goals in 9 games or something? He also scored for Portugal.

He was not particularly good after his injury but I’m assuming potential buyers will look past a poor half season in a very poor side. Which is clearly more than most of our supporters can do!

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I think if he''d have stayed fit in that season under Neil he''d have easily bagged 20+ goals.

I know he hasn''t impressed the year but I''d love to know what happened behind the scenes. I was pretty shocked to see him on the bench against Fulham and while his outburst was pretty childish I don''t think he was well managed by Farke also.

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I think Nelson will unfortunately leave but if he does stay then I think he might just have a great season.

I’m banking on us getting leitner to replace Maddison and with Hernandez and the buendia we could have a really interesting mix of players around him. Stick Trybull in the midfield with Tettey or Godfrey to give us some bite and we have a shot.

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