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Bill

Play offs here we come !

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Looking at our last seven gameswe have picked up 16 points which is an average of 2.3 points a game(105 over the season)we need, to reach (a suggested) 75 points, an average of 1.7 per game so we are getting closer, although accepting that the narrow range of games used would mean one game''s result could throw those figures off track either wayhowever more important than those figures is the way we a now playing, as a team who believes they can win - anyone watching Leitner today might wonder how much we would happily (with money) have paid for him had he been a PL signinga tough 3 games so let''s take up this chap''s cryhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7bSXEH99XBc58 secs

ps you can still get 7-1 play off place, and 33-1 promotion

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The problem isn’t our form at the minute. It’s the form of team sbetween us and the playoffs. If we weee chasing one teams it would be a lot more realistic, but we have to our perform 7 other teams between now and the end of the season.

No matter what we always seem to end up 8 points off the playoffs, we just cannot seem to drag ourselves closer.

The next 3 games will be crucial to our season as we play the top 2 away and Ipswich at home, the 2 hardest games left on paper and a team desperate to finally beat us. If we can stay 8 points (or even better, less) we will have a much better chance.

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The other teams performance isn''y of great consequence (unless it is v us) as they will cancel each other out.75 points pretty much ensures a play off place so all we can do is to keep plugging away trying to average 2 points a game.This will need to be consistent as a couple of defeats in a row requires 3 wins in a row to get back on track.Can we do it ? Mathematically until it is impossible, then yesFootball wise then I would have been extremely doubtful before the Birmingham game. More so if someone had told me that both Pritchard and Jerome would be sold in Jan.But here we are playing well, confidence sky high and winning .. Leitner looks a real prospect as does Hernandez. Lewis has been a revelation and Vrancic is now showing us what he really has, with Reed filling in superbly. We are not scoring many but we are not conceding, so one goal is often enough.As said, the next three games we will need 5/6 points - and away to Derby and Wolvesl which will test us to the max. But hey ho, let''s enjoy the next 18 games. The season was written off by so many on here a few weeks back but here we are with an outside chance so if it is blind belief and unqualified enthusiasm then why not.It''s what being a supporter is all about - and we''ve just been given another chance to indulge it.Tally ho !

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The limited attacking nature of our side, EG, slow build up, no balls going in behind the oppositions defence for a player to run onto, very few crosses coming into the box, very little pressure on the oppostions penalty box, no midfielders running through to assist the centreforward whose isolated and doesn''t stay in the middle enough all mean that Norwich rely on someone scoring a once a season long range shot every game to get a result. Without Maddisons brilliance at these types of shots, we''d be quite near to the relegation zone. Thankgod the backline has been superb the last couple of months!

The bottom line is we don''t score enough goals to be able to challenge the top 6!

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I think our defence may have something to do with our lack of goals (or the oether way round).But, as said elsewhere. if we are not letting any in then it only needs on at the other end.With a fast past wide player in Hernandez and a ''front man'' in Sir Benny I would suggest that our method of attack will see us change a bit. Similarly with young Edwards to fit in and the 5oyd dash specialist Sprinto soon to return I don''t doubt that change will be seen.16 points out of 21 also suggests that the play offs are not out of our grasp. And if it is ''ifs'' then if we had played this way earlier on we would easily be in the top six now.If the opposition is trying to crowd their 18yd box then often a ''long'' range shot is not only all that is available, but the best option. Personally I haven''t see so many ''clean'' goals (direct shots) since I''ve been following City.Long may it continue.

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We’re looking half decent for next season, although we will have to find an alternative to the likelihood of a departed Maddison. I think our inability in front of goal and the 8 point gap that we can’t seem to close will keep us some way off the play offs this season.

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[quote user="Drazen Muzinic"]This is sounding like LDC''s ''Top Two'' thread from last season.

I agree we seem to be building for next season.
[/quote]Or simply building........ which means we will be improvingIf that improving is good enough to achieve an average of two points a game over the remaining games, which we have done over the past eight games, then it is a good bet that we will finish in the top sixWe have yet to see Leitner or Hernandez play a full game nor Sir Benny and Edwards even start.Wait until we need three points from every game, before dismissing this season

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[quote user="Drazen Muzinic"]This is sounding like LDC''s ''Top Two'' thread from last season.

I agree we seem to be building for next season.[/quote]

It''s always on until it''s not. I agree we are building, but why should that preclude success this season?   I do wonder why people always look so far in the future when there is so much of this season to go - it''s always on, if the points are available - as it was last season.  There ought to be more optimism about really, because at this point in time we''re third in the form table at roughly 2.2 points per game average and if we maintain that, we will almost certainly be in the play offs.  Maintaining the good form is the key of course, but we could even improve on that.... 

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It would be good to make a go of it but realistically requires a crazily good run from now till the end of the season with very, very few slipups.

The table shows that defensively we are just about good enough but offensively we are anywhere between 14-20 goals short of the current top 6. Thats a pretty dramatic difference.

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is he that offensive ?we need a him to be repeat offender........ or so it would seem

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There''s one part of me that doesn''t want promotion this season. The reason is that we are still building a team and developing younger players. When you get to the Premier you have to be ready; and the scope to give game time to young players is more limited than the Championship. Then there is the question of parachuting in quality reinforcements to give yourself a fighting chance of survival. And we''ve experience of what happens when the likes of RVW, Fer, Naismith etc. turn up at Carrow Road. Then you''ve got the switch from a winning mentality of the Championship to a dig-in for the duration of the Premiership where we are favourites to lose every match.I get that the downside is, that by remaining in the Championship we are highly likely to lose our best players (Maddison, Klose), but I think we need to establish a really strong Championship squad who''ve been together for a while before we tackle the top league. That''s how the Lambert years went and that turned out to be pretty good in the long run.

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err, I don''t think anyone on this thread has mentioned expectations - far from itbut nevermindyou did try, so well done for that

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Well, perhaps (in the unlikely scenario of promotion) we could Go With What We''ve Got.

We might be able to hang on to Maddison in that case - & sign Leitner - & perhaps unearth another treasure from Germany, or Lower Piddling, or Outer Nabongoland, or wherever.

We might have to accept immediate relegation. But we might not. And we''d end up with a few bob instead of a horrendous debt.

At least we could give it a bloody good go!

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[quote user="Hercules"]err, I don''t think anyone on this thread has mentioned expectations - far from itbut nevermindyou did try, so well done for that[/quote]Image result for nurse he''s out of bed again gif

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It’s not expectations, its just hope based on nothing but bias. Take that away and what’s left?

Should we just accept mid table? If so what’s the point even turning up for games?

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[quote user="Rock The Boat"]There''s one part of me that doesn''t want promotion this season. The reason is that we are still building a team and developing younger players. When you get to the Premier you have to be ready; and the scope to give game time to young players is more limited than the Championship. Then there is the question of parachuting in quality reinforcements to give yourself a fighting chance of survival. And we''ve experience of what happens when the likes of RVW, Fer, Naismith etc. turn up at Carrow Road. Then you''ve got the switch from a winning mentality of the Championship to a dig-in for the duration of the Premiership where we are favourites to lose every match.I get that the downside is, that by remaining in the Championship we are highly likely to lose our best players (Maddison, Klose), but I think we need to establish a really strong Championship squad who''ve been together for a while before we tackle the top league. That''s how the Lambert years went and that turned out to be pretty good in the long run.[/quote]I kind of alluded to this just a few days ago, mentioning the Prem, with 12 teams seperated by 8 points, which simply equates to a massive amount of pressure to avoid the drop for more thn half the teams in the top tier. Plus said how i thought a new dynamic had arrived in Fulham, who''s charge into the top 6 would increase the points per game the teams in the top 6 would need to keep pace with them. I think that dynamic is already beginning to be seen. On the other hand, ive always been optimistic about this new City structure and those who are at the head, namely DF and Webber. Also have  the patience to give them 2 or 3 seasons for them to fully get to a stage for us all to say if it has worked or not. Plus, no one can surely deny the gradual improve on the pitch thru the season, enough there now to suggest City can climb higher, i firmly believe  higher than 13th, significantly, is achievable. Just that...6th place to me as it stands now, never mind earlier a few weeks  back, is a huge, tall order, thou not impossible. If it happened, id happily accept it, which City fan would''nt.

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That is one of the dangers of promotion. That need to throw everything at trying to stay up.Would the club be able to find the quality of players needed by doing what we we doing at the moment, or would be be back to signing all too often ''disinterested'' players who know they can hop off to another club/con tract when it suits ... them.For my part we are in an excellent place at the moment (not 13th in the table. After a rather worrying autumn things now seem to be coming together. The squad is full of ''unknowns'' as it was in the Lambert era pre PL days. Each seemingly able to surprise most by how they are filling out in the role. There seems also to be a great team spirit which I suggest is now filtering through to the supporters.It was the times when we have had some of our greatest success - when we have been perceived as the underdog. I cn''t remember which plyer it was but kistening to a radio show bout City''s win at Man U in the FA Cup in 1967 he said that although no one else fancied their chances the player did.I think we now hve a suad again who believe they can do it. Can win games they are not supposed to. It just needs a few more of us to share that belief as well.So no one is expecting anything, bar the expectation that if we get a win at Derby then a few more might want to share that belief.

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There’s always an outside chance, but in reality it’s not about top 6 surely if we did by some miracle make it, do we have a chance against a very good Villa, Derby, Fulham or Cardiff side with experienced managers at this level?

It was a great grinding result and my 6th game of the season, only my second win......

Thought the brief cameo of the new signings looked like the have added quality. Would be nice to see them play from the start.

Always a chance, big ask but here’s hoping it can just come good.....I think Farke is the best coaching set up since Lambert / Cully times, if only they had some serous spending power we might see a stint in the top flight.

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In football everything is possible, my scepticism mainly comes from the fact that we cannot score more than one goal per game, therefore we rely too heavily on defending/gamesmanship/scoring first and riding our luck which will run out. Should NO find his scoring boots again or any of the new signings turn out to be "goal machines" I''d be more optimistic.

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At the start of the season, we were bookies 4th favourites for promotion. I don’t think playoffs was unrealistic in summer.

Looking at it now, while we are lower than I’d like, we have great momentum and am still hoping by we are fighting for 6th. Any less is a failure for me though I am buying into the new regime and understand it might take a year. Hopefully we keep hold of this squad next season and make a real good go at it, especially without Wolves who blatantly pressed the old “up, up, down, down...” combo for unlimited money.

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I''m still firmly in the ''we''re not making the top 6'' camp but I can''t deny by skepticism is reducing with every win.

Bit of hope is a dangerous thing.

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Taking about 75 points as the benchmark then we would need 32 from the last 16 games, exactly 2 points per game.

That is a pretty tough ask. Breaking it down we are looking at a record required of something like 10 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats.

That isn''t impossible by any means. However, the issue is that when we concede the first goal we very rarely win, and like or not that is going to happen sometimes despite our defensive resolve.

The positive is that when we score first our record is excellent.

In my view the key is going be finding 2 or 3 come from behind wins where we score 2 or 3 goals and this squad has yet to really show that they are capable of that. I''m really hoping that the new signings can help provide that cutting edge to get us back into games when the chips are down. OTBC.

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2 points per game is basically the benchmark for automatic promotion over the season and it pretty much comes down to whether Farke can get us to hit that form for the rest of the season, in which case we can probably make the playoffs.

 

In the league we now have 4 wins out of 5 and when you add in home and away draws with Chelsea that''s starting to look like a decent run.  But goalscoring - and lack of creation of goalscoring opportunities - are very much our Achilles heel, as has been pointed out we''re just not creating many chances and defensively it often comes down to narrow margins as to whether you concede a goal or not, and once we concede we''ll really struggle.

 

3 very tough fixtures coming up - stay unbeaten through these and I''ll start to believe.

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It comes down to us being a lot nearer in many ways than we were before Xmas.Can we do it, yep ?Will we do it, highly unlikely given what is needed ?however I don''t think any of us before Xmas would imagine that we would be in the form now, that would be needed if we could hope to make a top six place. Neither, I suspect, would we have thought that after the loss of both Pritchard and Jerome we would be on such a winning run.Yep, the next three games are tough ones. But games I would rather be facing now rather than last autumn. And if we are to make it through to play offs then two of the teams out of the three will be the level of quality we will meet. So if we can''t get anything from them then maybe not come May eitherSo it is just a case of seeing how many points we can pick up over the next 16 games and see where that puts us.

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