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paul moy

Gap down to seven

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[quote user="king canary"]@Making Plans

Yep- it just flies in the face of all logic and common sense.

Is it still mathematically possible? Of course. But anyone who thinks it might is basing it on nothing other than blind faith.[/quote]

It is not quite blind faith. You could call it hope if you like, or maybe even desire - but every game starts 0-0 so the opportunity to get three points is there each game - and as Ron says, there are signs things are improving.  We probably need to win 10 of the next 12, maybe even 11 from 12 - a tall order - but for a team that is very difficult to beat and starting to make more chances in matches, it has to be considered a definite objective for the season. 

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@LDC

It is blind faith because it goes against all the available evidence.

We really need 9 wins minimum out of 12.

We''ve won 12 games all season. We''ve won 5 at home.

We''ve not won more than 2 games in a row all season.

We''ve scored 34 goals all season. We''ve got a negative goal difference.

To make the top 6 all of those need to end.

We''d need to win about as many home games as we have all season.

We''d need to win 4 or 5 in a row at some point.

We''d need to start scoring significantly more, or basically not concede a goal for the rest of the season.

Yes there are signs things are improving but not by anywhere near enough to reach those targets.

So yes, it is blind faith.

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[quote user="king canary"]@LDC

It is blind faith because it goes against all the available evidence.

We really need 9 wins minimum out of 12.

We''ve won 12 games all season. We''ve won 5 at home.

We''ve not won more than 2 games in a row all season.

We''ve scored 34 goals all season. We''ve got a negative goal difference.

To make the top 6 all of those need to end.

We''d need to win about as many home games as we have all season.

We''d need to win 4 or 5 in a row at some point.

We''d need to start scoring significantly more, or basically not concede a goal for the rest of the season.

Yes there are signs things are improving but not by anywhere near enough to reach those targets.

So yes, it is blind faith.[/quote]

So by your reckoning, because the evidence shows we haven''t scored enough up to now, we are not going to do it in the future. By my reckoning, the evidence shows that we have the potential to take it on and do better in the future. We''ll see, we will probably see something somewhere in the middle - some improvement but not enough to get sixth place.....but I would far rather believe we can do well enough to grab sixth place than believe we will continue like we have been.  It will continue to improve imo, it''s going to be interesting to see by how much we can improve.  12 games, win one game at a time and we''ll see how many wins we can get.

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It is not blind faith to say it is possible to reach the top 6.

It is blind faith to say it is not a very low probability event.

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What evidence shows that though?

Is it the 4 draws in a row?

Is it the 5 goals scored in the last 5 games?

Is it the 2 wins from the last 5 home games?

As far as I can see you''d be basing it on 45 good minutes against Bolton where we failed to take our chances.

Of course we have the chance to do better in the future. We also have the chance to do worse or do the same. From what I''ve seen, we''re not capable of going on the sort of run we''d need to to even get close to the top 6.

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[quote user="ron obvious"]It is not blind faith to say it is possible to reach the top 6. It is blind faith to say it is not a very low probability event.[/quote]

 

Exactly.  It''s rare for teams to accumulate points at a steady rate over the season, to do well normally includes some really good runs with some poor spells.  Inevitably that includes a bit of luck, or games with narrow margins going your way.

 

Before the games with Wolves, Derby & scum we were looking at 2 points per game for the rest of the season which basically would have required us to hit promotion form - completely doable, but there''s been no sign all season so far that we''re looking like hitting that sort of form.  A win against Bolton would have left us on 49 points and needing 26 points from 12 games (if 75 points is going to be enough to achieve 6th place), which would still have been realistic (if still very unlikely).  But getting just one point pushes the target to the "almost impossible" level IMO.

 

The reality is that to go on the sort of winning run we need, you need games like Saturday to go your way.  And I''m now resigned to the fact that it''s not going to happen.

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The top five teams have pulled away leaving nine teams looking for that sixth spot with just seven points between them. Huge pressure on whichever team is in sixth spot (Bristol ATM) so I can see it changing hands on a regular basis until the final day.It will take one team to go on a winning run and there''s no reason to believe it can''t be us. Although recent results have been poor, we are not getting beat. In each of the last four games we have been the better side so if we can start finding the net anything is possible. I''m not giving up yet.

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Agree ICF. I''m resigned to it too. It''s by far the most probable outcome.

However, that is irrelevant to the laws of probability, & zero probability only occurs when it is mathematically impossible to achieve sufficient points.

In the meantime I''m hoping for - but not expecting - a low probability event. Harmless fun I reckon :-)

It''s actually better than my chances of winning the lottery. (Not difficult, as I don''t buy tickets anymore ... )

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Even if Norwich, the worst team of the chasing pack, were to somehow miraculously reach the play-offs, they would then most likely have to beat either Fulham or Aston Villa, or both, to achieve promotion.

Not only do Norwich consistently get beaten by these two sides, but Norwich would need to score goals, a skill they’re particularly devoid of.

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If we managed to go on such a run that we get to the ply-offs, I reckon we could beat Man City, let alone those two!

I''ve not seen a team in the Championship we aren''t capable of beating. Mind you, that goes for most other teams as well.

Seriously, if by some freak twist of fate we got there, I''d really fancy our chances.

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I would take issue with the claim we are the "worst team of the chasing pack."

I believe on our way we are the equal of any teamin the division as has been shwon by our results against many of the so called better teams.

We have an issue with translating dominant possession at home into goals. We probably wont suddenly overcome that but we could and IF we can then i think we are generally playing well enough to go on the sort of run that could see us get very close to or pinch top 6.

I believe we certainly have superior players than Bristol City, Leeds, Derby, Brentford, Sheffield United, Ipswich and I don;pt believe that Villa, Fulham or Boro are any better than us either etc. They may have been more efficient than us this season in terms of turning performances into results (even poor performances) but we still have a lot of very good quality players for this division and if anything are underperforming in terms of results.

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Guest
Would Pritchard have given us that little bit extra in the last four drawn games?

Yes. His first thought was to go forward and he was linking well with Maddison. For all Leitner''s ability, dynamism isn''t one.

Yes we look neat and tidy and we had a great 2nd half against Wolves and carried it on first half against Bolton.

What went wrong in the dressing room at half time Saturday?

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Sorry Jim, the table doesn’t lie, we don’t have superior players than those you mention or we’d be above them all, the reality is we are on par with these squads just about! Why say we are better when clearly we sit in 14th.

We certainly have a solid squad and a decent coach, so there’s a chance we might overtake a few teams before the end of the season.

Our unbeaten run has seen us scrape two last minute draws and take 10 points from 21 available, not really top 6 form, as City 1st keeps alluding to we needed to average 2 points per game to get into that top 6, it’s not happening and if Shef U win that game in hand the gap goes to 8 points that’s three wins more than Sheffield to find just to bridge that gap.

It’s been a solid season and this summer will be key to where we could be next year.

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I agree about Pritchard. He had the urgency around the box our other players lack.

Dunno what happened at half time. Suspect Bolton upped their game a bit & we got complacent. So ist das fussball.

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The sale of Pritchard was so disappointing as you could see how much potential a Pritchard/Maddison/Nelson combo had, particularly since we got the back three sorted.

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We aren’t even safe yet. Play offs are pie in the sky but we’ve had solid relegation form for a prolonged period this season and a return to the norm will see us bang in trouble.

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If the season started at Christmas, we''d be comfortably in the play-offs, and maybe a tad disappointed not to be nearer the top 2. 5 wins 5 draws and 1 defeat in 11 since Brentford (H). 20 points from 11.

We have made ground on all the teams above us up to 6th, except for Millwall, who have come from below.

Last year, with a record of 47 points from 34 games, there would have been no chance of 6th place. This season is a bit different. 6th place last year was worth 80 points; this season, as things stand, around 74-75. Teams just above us, like Preston and ''Boro, have maintained virtually the same form throughout the season. ''Boro, for instance, have taken 17 points from the last 11, which is exactly the same as their record over the whole season (17 / 11 x 34 = their current points total for the whole season).

If we''ve managed to take 20 from 11, I can''t see any reason why are form should drop off. The January signings are settling, and most importantly, the new regime has had more time.

Many on here, at the start of the season, expected things to be slow to start with and to pick up in the 2nd half of the season, and that seems to be precisely what''s happening. I can see us getting around 23 points from the remaining 12, leaving us on 70 points, and agonisingly close to 6th. Probably Sheff. U or ''Boro will take the last spot, but we are still an outside bet, in my book, if we manage a winning streak in March. Big ''IF'', sure.

Let''s not forget 1982. we had 37 points from 28 games, exactly the same record as we had after Sheff U at home this season, and were languishing around 12th / 13th. We ended up 3rd!

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"I can see us getting around 23 points from the remaining 12, leaving us on 70 points, and agonisingly close to 6th."

This makes dropping 4 points to Burton, 3 to Sunderland, 2 to Ipswich and 2 to Bolton rather frustrating. Mind you, its balanced against wins at Boro and Sheff U. Swings and roundabouts I guess...

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