NELSON OLIVEIRA

[kick it off 1,948]

[quote user="ZLF"]The datas (not mine) show his conversion rate is worse than jeromes and jerome gets involved in a goal or chance every 50 mins compared to every 75 for Nelson. [/quote]

Whose data is it then? because according to whoscored.com it can''t be right. If Jerome has a better conversion rate, and is involved in a goal or chance at a 3:2 ratio to Nelson then I''m not sure how you explain the below - Data is from last season and game 1 of this one:

Cam 2932 minutes divided by 23 (16 goals, 7 assists) = involved in a goal every 127.4mins

Nelson 1429 minutes divided by 12 (11 goals last season and one on Sat) = involved in (scored) a goal every 119 minutes.

[Bethnal Yellow and Green 1,557]

The stats ZLF mentions include key passes. The pass leading to a shot.

While Nelson scores more goals per min than Jerome he sets up basically nothing. No assists last season and very few key passes 7 compared to CJ''s 41 (0.4 per 90 compared to 1.3 per 90).

While assists are not a great stat as they rely on the other player finishing, it is worth noting that CJ with 7 assists was only bettered by Hoolahan, who had 10, in the Norwich squad last season.

Personally I feel Nelson is the better striker, but he is far from a complete player and really needs to work on bringing other players into the game - his first instinct is always to shoot. That isn''t the worst thing in a striker, but when he starts taking pot shots from 35 yards it can be very wasteful.

[ZLF 271]

As I said I dont know the source data but a norwich dedicated site, and looked at chances (as I quoted in my

post), suggesting Key Passes may have been included.

The involved with goal data, which they also had, was v similar to the numbers you quote.

Since the start of last season Whoscored this morning has Jerome with 16 goals from 84 shots (19.0% finishing rate) while Nelson has 12 from 68 (17.6%)

All the data indicates that whoever starts the team will be ok - its just with Nelson starting its nelson who scores, with jerome its him and those he creates for the team.

For me at least it is clear we have two capable front men who benefit the team, they have different styles and attributes with neither being head and shoulders better than the other for the team.

Now if Nelson can start creating and use his head when 25 yards from goal he can make himself undroppable. Does he have the ability to learn?

[paul moy 235]

When looking at stats for goals scored by number of minutes, the number of starts needs also to be taken into consideration as it''s obviously much easier to score when coming on as a striker as a fresh sub against tired opposition defenders with 20 minutes to go, and also perhaps when the team are hunting strongly for an equaliser or winner, so are therefore in a stronger attack mode than earlier in the game when they may be just nullifying the opposition to build a platform into the game.  Jerome has probably had more starts so has had to contend more with fresh defenders and a more defensive earlier set-up, so scoring is more difficult for him, as it would also be for Oliveira if he is starting, thus for me his stats are just as impressive, if not more so than Oliveira''s, who I believe has had more supersub appearances.  

[Bethnal Yellow and Green 1,557]

Nelson''s goal on Saturday was the first time he has scored as a sub for Norwich. So that isn''t part of it. He has scored once from a penalty and Jerome didn''t score any pens last season so that also has to be taken into consideration.

[hogesar 9,618]

Fact is there''s not the massive gulf between them that some are making out. However we couldn''t afford to lose him and not replace.

[Bethnal Yellow and Green 1,557]

They are very different types of strikers so direct comparison is difficult. Jerome does all his scoring from inside the box and brings others into the game with good approach play and hard work.

Nelson loves a long shot, and is capable of the unexpected and has fantastic technique. They compliment each other very well, although probably not at the same time on the pitch, and require opposing teams to defend in very different ways.

If Nelson is sold then I''m 100% sure Norwich would replace him, you just hope whoever they have in mind is as capable and can fit in quickly.

[westcoastcanary 173]

Jim Smith wrote: "Selling Oliveira now is simply not an acceptable outcome. Big test of Farkes man management. He has to bring him back into the fold. If we end up selling him to another championship club I will be livid."

On the contrary, this is a test of Oliveira''s character and temperament, the extent to which he is prepared to put team and club above ego and perceived self-interest. It is for Oliveira to bring himself back into the fold. All Farke has to do is keep the fold gate open for him.

[ZLF 271]

selling Nelson would be the second worst outcome for me; he is a big asset and the risk of any new signing, whoever that may be, is too high.

him staying and being unhappy and disruptive because he is not starting every game is the worst.

Showing his value through performance without the 5 year old histrionics is ideal.

[Tumbleweed 106]

If there is any suggestion that NO is causing internal disharmony then I am pretty sure that DF will get rid, and indeed he must do. The management team needs to be ruthless and remove the last vestiges of those who were either not trying or not respecting the manager (CJ or RM''s views from last season as I recall?). Oliveira is a decent better-than-journeyman striker but far from irreplaceable and though he scored a few last season is not suddenly the answer to all our promotion aspirations. Webber seems to have done pretty well so far so I have confidence that this will get sorted one way or the other.

[ZLF 271]

On the contrary, this is a test of Oliveira''s character and temperament.

That is how I see it too WCC. I think Farke is managing it well, so how he reacts to a sub spot on Sunday is the next test.

[BroadstairsR 2,138]

Let''s hope it''s all nothing.

If, and it''s quite a big "IF" he is a disruptive influence in any way shape or form then he must be unloaded.

A bad apple could well disrupt the well thought through plans that Webber and Farke have drawn up for the club.

His antics have already left a bad taste in the mouth over and above that lousy beer they sold in Craven Cottage and taken the gloss somewhat from off a fine opening performance.

The club is more important than the player, especially as Nelson comes quite a way down the list of fine strikers who have worn the yellow from Ron Davies to Grant Holt; and with the likes of McDougall, Drinkell, Fleck, Ashton and Sutton and quite a few others on the way.

Was it true that Reading have offered £15m for him or is this a figment of my dream on Saturday night whereby a pink elephant flew past my bedroom trailing a banner to that effect.

TWO MUSTS:

1. We must not sell him on the cheap whatsoever.

2. We must not sell him to a Championship rival

TWO IDEALS:

1. They kiss and make friends.

AND/OR

2. Keep him happy ''til the next window at least. If he fires then a PL team with more dosh might come sniffing.

[Old Shuck 183]

It felt (to me at least and nothing really in it I think) as if we were all being softened up for a pending Oliveira departure at the weekend.First there was Humphrey''s Tweet-wasn''t that a bit out of character for him to be *quite* that outspoken, alluding that a player shouldn''t wear the shirt again? He''s never normally that outspoken about the game or the club. Was he, I thought, tipped the wink by someone, as a known Norwich fan with lots of Twitter followers, if he speaks out against NO then, the thought would have been, Norwich fans would think, "...yes, yes Jake is right. Bad Nelson, boo for Nelson, good old Jake, we all agree".We''re not that malleable. But it might not stop someone, off the record, whatever, by suggesting it be said.Then Charlie Wyett stepped in, saying how he (Oliviera) was overrated by Norwich fans. More social media ground laying, softening us up, high profile Norwich fans given a role to lay the ground for an eventual departure.I think Oliviera will be gone by the end of the window and the Belgian lad will, very quickly, be unveiled as his replacement, the old covering up the bad news with some good news thing. Plus, of course, there''ll be the added advantage for the spin to say how Fonkeu has come in for next to nothing whilst we got ''x'' for Nelson.Am now wondering if the in-camp discontent spoken about in Germany surrounded Oliviera as well.Something, maybe or nothing, more probable. But however much of a "man never walked on the moon" hypothesis it sounds, I''ll still be surprised if Oliviera is still a Norwich player come September 1st.

[Bethnal Yellow and Green 1,557]

Think that is a case of 2+2= 1,000 Old Shuck.

Think Jake''s little outburst was classic Humphreys attention grabbing and Charlie Wyett is a miserable sod. For many who don''t watch Norwich that often they just look at Nelson''s less that wonderful history and say, "nah, he isn''t very good", rather than actually seeing him play.

There is no way Fonkeu is being lined up as his replacement, the lad is a youth team footballer and after he signs I doubt he''ll make the bench let alone start any games.

It is impossible to say "Farke is handling this well" as we don''t know what has been said in private or the training ground. It is a big test for him as there would be no press conferences or media coverage of Dortmund II and all of this will be new to him - even Alex Neil, with his meagre experience would have had more exposure to this sort of thing than Farke has so far.

Hopefully come Sunday Nelson is starting or on the bench and happy to contribute to Norwich''s season. If he is trying to force his way out, then Norwich aren''t going to get a great price for him as their hands will be tied - the fact his agent works for Wolves really isn''t going to help this situation either, hard to imagine him saying "just get your head down and give your all for the club".

[Old Shuck 183]

Bethnal.hope you''re right mate. Am too cynical about modern football to see much in a positive light. Should stop the catastrophising.

[Lessingham Canary 99]

Somehow i dont think we will see Nelson in a Norwich shirt again. Was told last night by people who might no a little more than me (and i know nothing) that he is still very unhappy about not being started on Saturday, and shows no sign of standing down. I really hope it doesn''t happen, as cant see us finding a proven goal scorer who can hit the ground running this window. In Webber / Farke we have to trust!.

[Jim Smith 2,314]

[quote user="westcoastcanary"]Jim Smith wrote: "Selling Oliveira now is simply not an acceptable outcome. Big test of Farkes man management. He has to bring him back into the fold. If we end up selling him to another championship club I will be livid."

On the contrary, this is a test of Oliveira''s character and temperament, the extent to which he is prepared to put team and club above ego and perceived self-interest. It is for Oliveira to bring himself back into the fold. All Farke has to do is keep the fold gate open for him.

[/quote]

Its a test of both. Its all very well saying that Nelson has to bring himself back into the fold but when you have a brilliant but emotional member of your team you also have to learn how best to handle it and there is a balance to be struck between being form and not making the situation worse by going over the top. this is especially the case when you are in our financial position and know that you will not be able to afford the equivalent quality of player in the event that things really go wrong and he ends up leaving. We should not cut off our nose to spite our face here. I am sure that if handled right Nelson will come around but the fact that he no doubt has suitors waiting in the wings (and the club seems obsessed with offloading high earners nd banking cash when its on offer) will not help matters.

[Jim Smith 2,314]

firm not form.

[......and Smith must score. 1,334]

[quote user="Lessingham Canary"]Somehow i dont think we will see Nelson in a Norwich shirt again. Was told last night by people who might no a little more than me (and i know nothing) that he is still very unhappy about not being started on Saturday, and shows no sign of standing down. [/quote]Sadly I feel this will be the outcome.Such a shame for while Oliviera is total class as a footballer he''s a total ass otherwise as events at Craven Cottage showed. I''ll be very surprised if he hasn''t moved on by the close of the transfer window.It''s all the more frustrating as he looks Premier League class and is sure to score a hatful of goals at this level. The question is whether his fiery temperament will allow him to play consistently for any team at all.

[Mervmeister 18]

The Diego Costa of the Championship.

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

Is it just me, but last season there was a lot of alternating between Oliveira and Jerome which didn''t seem to cause any problem? 

 

Frankly if Oliveira can''t understand that Jerome is a different type of player who may be more suitable for a game away at a side who will have the bulk of possession, then that''s going to be a problem.  Clearly he was angry about not starting on Saturday, it comes down to whether he can get over it.

 

You wonder how much this is the media blowing up a story which would be under the radar if the Prem had started.

 

Ultimately this just needs to be resolved quickly so if we have to get rid of him, we have time to invest in a quality replacement.

[Rogue Baboon 0]

I hope it is a simple case of people making 2+2=5 (or 1000), but last nights refusal to talk about it hasn''t helped. The question was quite simple - will he be in the squad Sunday.

If Farke had said ''yes, but that''s all I want to say about it tonight, would rather focus on the game'' then the matter would have been put to bed. His refusal is making me think there is still a big issue.

If he goes, I just cannot see us replacing him with anybody close in terms of quality - or spending anything close to the level of money that would be required to get somebody in

[Bethnal Yellow and Green 1,557]

Agree Baboon, I think Farke''s lack of exposure to the media might have meant he has caused an issue where there is no issue. I think he just wanted to put all the Nelson stuff behind him and move on, but his blunt statement has created more interest.

The first question of Friday''s press conference is going to be about Nelson now and Farke is going to have to spend a third press conference in a row fending questions about him. A simple ''he was being rested tonight and I will pick the squad for the Sunderland game on the day'' would have meant we aren''t all here discussing having to sell Nelson.

[Rogue Baboon 0]

Of course, the flip side to this is Nelson starts Sunday, scores a hat trick, and gives Farke a nice big hug & high five when celebrating to show both parties have moved on & we all go home happy.

Agree re. lack of media exposure. The Championship is like no other 2nd tier league in the world in terms of media exposure. I wonder if somebody (Webber?) will have a quiet word in his ear telling him to put it all to bed at the next Presser to stop it spiraling further out of control

[westcoastcanary 173]

@jim smith

"when you have a brilliant but emotional member of your team you also have to learn how best to handle it"

The crucial word there is "team". If the cost of keeping Nelson happy is erosion of group togetherness and spirit, my view is it''s best he goes. When has he ever shown himself a team player? The signals from him are the opposite, pretty much since he joined. The suspicion that his exit is being engineered might be correct, though not by the club, by the player and his agent. 

[Rogue Baboon 0]

Am I missing something?

What has Nelson done to suggest he isn''t a team player? They mentioned this on the radio last night. The only instance I can think of is the red card last season, but he isn''t the first, and certainly wont be the last, to get a stupid red card.

The celebration on Saturday was not the look of a player who wanted to engineer an exit. If he wanted to leave, he wouldn''t have been upset about not playing

[sonyc 5,491]

I''ve given this some mulling over and have reached my conclusions. Given that NO is likely to be earning a huge whack each week I suspect (just for playing football), then his behaviour at Fulham was unacceptable. It was just about him and his ego, not about NCFC, not about his team mates, not even about the fans who come and laud his praises (not in the first instance). It was pre-meditated even. As soon as he scored he had one thought on his mind. He has some lovely skills and will be a big loss. Farke looked embarrassed publicly by Oliverira''s reaction I thought as he headed his way back to the dugout. And of course he was. We can all imagine what we would have felt like in his position. Oliveira has not even had the decency to come out and say one word, even an explanation rather than an apology would do. Nothing. I expect also he will not be playing again unless something is said this week. There will be other strikers around who will be team members. He will be a big loss but he will be remembered as a big head ultimately, behaving badly to engineer a move and earn more money. For sure, he hasn''t got NCFC''s interests in the front of his mind. If he had, he wouldn''t have done what he did and if he did it without thinking and the red mist descended, he has had ample time to explain etc. We have heard nothing.

[Coq au vin 0]

RB, from what I''ve seen sometimes he''s quite lazy, wants the ball delivered to him on a platter and moans if it isn''t, doesn''t track back to defend enough, doesn''t chase and harry. But like others have said, that''s not his game.

[Bethnal Yellow and Green 1,557]

Nelson won''t have said anything as it is up to the club whether he is allowed access to journalists. The club''s line is ''this is nothing big, its all over'', Nelson coming out and making a public apology just carries it on and probably annoys the player more.

Players cannot pick and choose when they talk to the media, it is carefully controlled by the club.

[Rogue Baboon 0]

Morgan - the irony there is you have just summed up Cristiano Ronaldo in one sentence...

The thing is, when playing one up top you sometimes just need a striker to score goals. If not you end up after 60 minutes with an exhausted striker who has run about all over the pitch without getting close to scoring, or may get 1 or 2 chances a game and have to take them for the team to have any chance of promotion