The Big Bad Wolf 0 Posted February 10, 2017 Like a lot of others I was left frustrated with a single point away at Wigan. It could reasonably be seen as two points dropped, or a point gained depending on your perspective. Mostly I''m a heart rules head type so felt deflated after the chance to get back in the top six was spurned. But then in the last few weeks results (not always performances) have picked up. So having read various Pinkun articles about ''perspective'' I thought it might be time for a bit of number crunching.Personally I see us in a three way battle for sixth place with Wednesday and Derby. The fixtures left for all three are fairly similar...ours might be a bit more tricky and the Rams have three home games in a row now so they could overtake us. Wednesday and Derby play each other towards the end of the season and we have a tough trip to Sheffield so these fixtures likely to be pivital. There are so many variables its hard to predict. But from a statistical point of view, based on previous sixth place finishes we are going to need more than 68 points...more likely around 74 points. For us that means 27 points from 16 games, or around 1.7 per game. Looking at our fixtures my opinion is that''s tough but possible and likely means we are in for an exciting run in. To date we are averaging about 1.56 points per game, so we are banking on a strong finish... but we have done it before. It felt frustrating against Wigan because of their league position but they are battling for their lives right now. There will be more strange results as time moves on and teams above us and around us will lose games they were excpected to win. We have had many false dawns, where we felt we had turned a corner, only to slip up the next week. But then perhaps this is how it is this year. It still could turn out okay, and if we don''t go up we still have some exciting young players who are going to be better next season. I still believe sixth place will be ours. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
morty 0 Posted February 10, 2017 We are actually in exactly the same form as Newcastle are.[URL=http://s869.photobucket.com/user/mortymccarthy/media/Untitled_zpslp2sdmgn.jpg.html][IMG]http://i869.photobucket.com/albums/ab257/mortymccarthy/Untitled_zpslp2sdmgn.jpg[/IMG][/URL] Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Greavsy 2,413 Posted February 10, 2017 Surely a key part o the form guide is who those last 6 matches have been against too? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
lake district canary 4,531 Posted February 10, 2017 Head and heart say we will probably make the play offs....but - in reality, it will always be a case of however many matches are left and how many points are available. At this point 16 matches and 48 points. All those points are gettable and would put us on 95 points. That is the target - and although of course we will drop points here and there, right now, that is still the target. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
king canary 7,605 Posted February 10, 2017 I think we will make the play-offs as we seem to have come into some form at the right time.However I think we''ll be very reliant on our home form and we''ve got some tough home games still to come. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
hogesar 9,658 Posted February 10, 2017 Problem is, bar maybe Derby all the other games we''ve won have yet again been against the lower teams in the league. We need to beat those around us now to really stand a chance. I''ve yet to see we can consistently compete against the better teams in this league. Which is odd, because we have a far better squad than most of them. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
morty 0 Posted February 10, 2017 [quote user="king canary"]I think we will make the play-offs as we seem to have come into some form at the right time.However I think we''ll be very reliant on our home form and we''ve got some tough home games still to come.[/quote]I don''t think we need to fear anyone at Carrow road, based on current form, and I''m confident we can beat both Forest and Newcastle, which will be huge for everyone, players and fans alike. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
morty 0 Posted February 10, 2017 [quote user="hogesar"]Problem is, bar maybe Derby all the other games we''ve won have yet again been against the lower teams in the league. We need to beat those around us now to really stand a chance. I''ve yet to see we can consistently compete against the better teams in this league. Which is odd, because we have a far better squad than most of them.[/quote]So are you classing Forest as "one of the better teams in the league"? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Greavsy 2,413 Posted February 10, 2017 They are 6th in the form guide, so no mugs on current form. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
king canary 7,605 Posted February 10, 2017 After the scum game we''ve got a 12 game run involving 8 teams currently in the top half- Wednesday, Barnsley, Huddersfield, Reading, Fulham, Preston, Brighton and Leeds. We didn''t beat any of those teams in the earlier fixtures and I think only got two draws out of them. Our form against these types will be make or break for this season. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
morty 0 Posted February 10, 2017 [quote user="king canary"]After the scum game we''ve got a 12 game run involving 8 teams currently in the top half- Wednesday, Barnsley, Huddersfield, Reading, Fulham, Preston, Brighton and Leeds. We didn''t beat any of those teams in the earlier fixtures and I think only got two draws out of them. Our form against these types will be make or break for this season.[/quote]We are, generally in much better form now though. I think how we play against Forest and Newcastle will give us a much better idea as to where we are. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
king canary 7,605 Posted February 10, 2017 I suppose the question is did those teams beat us because we fell into bad form or did we fall into bad form because they beat us? The Fulham, Brighton and Leeds games were be beginning of the terrible run so you could argue we went into the first two games in decent form. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
morty 0 Posted February 10, 2017 [quote user="king canary"]I suppose the question is did those teams beat us because we fell into bad form or did we fall into bad form because they beat us? The Fulham, Brighton and Leeds games were be beginning of the terrible run so you could argue we went into the first two games in decent form.[/quote]The general held opinion, at the time, was that we were getting away with it a bit though. We weren''t convincing in games we were winning. We were pretty fragile.Annoyingly, when we were around top spot a Newcastle mate of mine said "Yeah, but you haven''t played anyone decent yet" and he turned out to be pretty spot on. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
king canary 7,605 Posted February 10, 2017 Yeah i think that is fair. I was at the Fulham game and it was depressing how easily we threw away that lead. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
morty 0 Posted February 10, 2017 [quote user="king canary"]Yeah i think that is fair. I was at the Fulham game and it was depressing how easily we threw away that lead.[/quote]There has been a huge difference in the last 6 or 8 games, epitomised by the 4 points we just took from two tricky away games, and our very good form at home.Yeah it counts for nothing if we slip back into old ways, but its hard to deny that they have sorted a lot of issues out. Yeah we still concede the odd soft goal, but nothing like it was a month or two ago. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hoola Han Solo 448 Posted February 10, 2017 If we''d turned just three or four of them losses during that awful run, into at least draws and maybe wins, we''d be hovering pretty close to the automatics right now. That October to December period has really killed us. Frustrating. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rogue Baboon 0 Posted February 10, 2017 I''m not a fan of saying we need to average x amount of points from the remaining y games...For me, its much simpler:Play Forest, beat ForestPlay Newcastle, beat NewcastlePlay Burton, beat BurtonPlay *them*, beat *them*Instead of focusing on getting so many points per game for the rest of the season, we need to focus on winning each and every game. Yes we will not win every game, but you then temper it with perspective - we didn''t beat Wigan, disappointing result, but that was then 10 points from a possible 12, with 2 home games & a winnable away, followed by Ipswich coming up. As Morty said, the difference in the last 6 games or so compared to the period before Christmas is remarkable Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Big Bad Wolf 0 Posted February 10, 2017 Morty,I take that you feel we will get 27+ points from the last 16 games? You are right that our form is better recently but I also think its fair to say we need to start beating the better sides. I agree that if we can beat the toon then that should really give us a confidence boost. I can see it being nip and tuck with us, Derby and Wednesday...so hoping for brum win tonight. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
morty 0 Posted February 10, 2017 [quote user="The Big Bad Wolf"]Morty,I take that you feel we will get 27+ points from the last 16 games? You are right that our form is better recently but I also think its fair to say we need to start beating the better sides. I agree that if we can beat the toon then that should really give us a confidence boost. I can see it being nip and tuck with us, Derby and Wednesday...so hoping for brum win tonight.[/quote]I think you can point to a lot of factors, including ones I have already mentioned.You can also add in a couple of new players who are keen to impress, and give the manager some different attacking options. A settled manager who know he is backed by his employer. A fan base slowly coming back onside, and a bit of belief from the players, coupled with the realisation (finally) that they have to work hard at this, and not just turn up. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
lake district canary 4,531 Posted February 10, 2017 [quote user="Rogue Baboon"]I''m not a fan of saying we need to average x amount of points from the remaining y games...For me, its much simpler:Play Forest, beat ForestPlay Newcastle, beat NewcastlePlay Burton, beat BurtonPlay *them*, beat *them*Instead of focusing on getting so many points per game for the rest of the season, we need to focus on winning each and every game. Yes we will not win every game, but you then temper it with perspective - we didn''t beat Wigan, disappointing result, but that was then 10 points from a possible 12, with 2 home games & a winnable away, followed by Ipswich coming up.[/quote]Exactly this. Three points per game - and there are 48 available. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hoola Han Solo 448 Posted February 10, 2017 No offence but the autos are massively optimistic. With the gap between us and even 5th and 4th place, we''d need to go on a miraculous run. I think we''re playing for 6th. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Greavsy 2,413 Posted February 10, 2017 The aim has always got to be to win the next game, the league and other teams will take care of themselves. We have no influence over them, other just winning our next match, whoever that is against, and wherever they are in the league. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
morty 0 Posted February 10, 2017 [quote user="Hoola Han Solo"]No offence but the autos are massively optimistic. With the gap between us and even 5th and 4th place, we''d need to go on a miraculous run. I think we''re playing for 6th.[/quote]Definitely. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Greavsy 2,413 Posted February 10, 2017 Surely the aim is for 6th, but then when (if) we get there push on for 5th, then 4 and so on, until the games run-out?Progressively improving, small steps and all that. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hoola Han Solo 448 Posted February 10, 2017 I agree greavsy, however an automatic spot would require Newcastle or Brighton to lose at least 4 or 5 games between now and May, and that''s even discounting the chasing pack of Leeds, Huddersfield, Reading and Wednesday. The only way we''re going up this season is via the play-offs. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Greavsy 2,413 Posted February 10, 2017 I don''t disagree, but we cannot influence their results, apart from the games against them.Once a play off place is guaranteed (generally speaking I mean) you wouldn''t rest players etc, you would strive on, and keep the momentum going etc. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
morty 0 Posted February 10, 2017 Who said anything about resting players once a play off place is achieved?What a ridiculous concept. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Greavsy 2,413 Posted February 10, 2017 That''s my point, you are targeting as high as you can, you might realistically only be able to acheive 6th, but you need to aim higher, if not people take their foot off the gas, once lower targets are attained. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
morty 0 Posted February 10, 2017 [quote user="Greavsy"]That''s my point, you are targeting as high as you can, you might realistically only be able to acheive 6th, but you need to aim higher, if not people take their foot off the gas, once lower targets are attained.[/quote]Well thats obvious. It is assumed, whether or not you believe that we will go up in automatic, that we will try to win every game.So obvious it barely needed saying.... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Greavsy 2,413 Posted February 10, 2017 morty wrote the following post at 10/02/2017 12:38 PM: Greavsy wrote:That''s my point, you are targeting as high as you can, you might realistically only be able to acheive 6th, but you need to aim higher, if not people take their foot off the gas, once lower targets are attained.Well thats obvious. It is assumed, whether or not you believe that we will go up in automatic, that we will try to win every game.So obvious it barely needed saying....Well you seemed to miss the point, again.But thanks for your input. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites