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lake district canary

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lake district canary wrote:

''''It''s football. Anything can happen.

Newcastle could lose three of their next five games (they have three top six teams away).

If we win five out of five, we would be only six points behind them, with 9 games to play.

Brighton could wobble, Hughton might start getting cautious as the pressure mounts.

Huddersfield have tough fixtures and the FA cup to contend with.

Leeds, Shef Wed, Reading have tough fixtures.

Anything can still happen. ''''

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

You do realise if Newcastle lose to the three top 6 sides it will give these sides 3 points? And no doubt a mass of momentum and confidence having beaten the league leaders?

Presumably you also include Newcastle in the ''tough fixtures'' you mention of the other top 6 sides, so which is it?

They''re not ALL going to drop points completely like you appear to be suggesting, and saying they might draw every encounter would be silly..

Come on now lakey..

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The way the top 6 are grabbing points right now, it could well be  a season where 6th place needs a new high pointage amount,for the Champs, currently held by Ipswich a couple yrs back who had 78. This season may well need 80 points  just to get 6th place, so talk of City and a top two finish is mathematically possible but ludicrously improbable.

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In the last twenty years the highest number of points needed for automatic promotion from this division is 93 points. Our possible total?   93 points.  Improbable we can do it?  Of course - but other teams will drop points - it is written. Most seasons the total needed for second place is less than 90 points.  So while our possible total remains above 90 points, we are in there with as much chance as the rest of them. It''s football. Anything can happen.

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For us to finish top two, we''d need a scenario probably unprecedented in league history. You''d need the teams above us to have an almighty collapse, and the bottom half of the table to suddenly start winning a lot more games than they previously have. In other words, the whole form book turned completely on its head. One or two teams may wobble, but not four or five.

For us to finish top six is going to require a major effort; to finish top two would be nothing short of miraculous.

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Lakey, put your head in gear for a minute. You''re talking about a near perfect run for us for the rest of the season. Even in 14/15 we didnt win every game, only about 60 or 70%. You''re hoping for an improbably good run. Not happening.

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@LDC

"Improbable we can do it? Of course - but other teams will drop points - it is written. Most seasons the total needed for second place is less than 90 points. So while our possible total remains above 90 points, we are in there with as much chance as the rest of them. It''s football. Anything can happen."

So it is written that other teams will drop points but it isn''t written that we will?

And to say we have ''as much chance'' as the rest of them- we really don''t. We have a much smaller chance than every single team above us.

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At the risk of injecting logic here, this is a list of all the top 6 teams playing each other :-21st Feb Huddersfield v Reading25th Feb Leeds v Sheffield Wed25th Feb Brighton v Reading28th Feb Brighton v Newcastle4th March Huddersfield v Newcastle7th March Newcastle v Reading17th March Sheffield Wed v Reading18th March Leeds v Brighton1st April Reading v Leeds8th April Sheffield Wed v Newcastle15th April Newcastle v LeedsAs it stands we are 4 points behind Sheff Wed, 6 points behind Leeds, 9 points behind Reading, 10 points behind Huddersfield, 14 behind Brighton, and 15 behind Newcastle.So to get into the top two the teams playing Newcastle and Brighton all have to win (yes draws are theoretical, but not in all the games.)But all those teams, listed above, are currently above us.Its not happening.

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If you then add to that our injury list and the fact we only have one left back with no cover, one decent striker available and one J.Howson you soon realise that we are not strong enough in depth to mount such an improbable challenge. Top six is the best we can hope for now.

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Morty says:-

At the risk of injecting logic here, this is a list of all the top 6 teams playing each other :-

21st Feb Huddersfield v Reading

25th Feb Leeds v Sheffield Wed

25th Feb Brighton v Reading

28th Feb Brighton v Newcastle

4th March Huddersfield v Newcastle

7th March Newcastle v Reading

17th March Sheffield Wed v Reading

18th March Leeds v Brighton

1st April Reading v Leeds

8th April Sheffield Wed v Newcastle

15th April Newcastle v Leeds

As it stands we are 4 points behind Sheff Wed, 6 points behind Leeds, 9 points behind Reading, 10 points behind Huddersfield, 14 behind Brighton, and 15 behind Newcastle.

So to get into the top two the teams playing Newcastle and Brighton all have to win (yes draws are theoretical, but not in all the games.)

But all those teams, listed above, are currently above us.

Its not happening.

The gut asks:-

Please explain your workings morty - Do your calculations prove it''s possible or not possible? I understand you have decreed "Its not happening" but not sure on the rest of the post.

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[quote user="The gut"]Morty says:-

At the risk of injecting logic here, this is a list of all the top 6 teams playing each other :-

21st Feb Huddersfield v Reading

25th Feb Leeds v Sheffield Wed

25th Feb Brighton v Reading

28th Feb Brighton v Newcastle

4th March Huddersfield v Newcastle

7th March Newcastle v Reading

17th March Sheffield Wed v Reading

18th March Leeds v Brighton

1st April Reading v Leeds

8th April Sheffield Wed v Newcastle

15th April Newcastle v Leeds

As it stands we are 4 points behind Sheff Wed, 6 points behind Leeds, 9 points behind Reading, 10 points behind Huddersfield, 14 behind Brighton, and 15 behind Newcastle.

So to get into the top two the teams playing Newcastle and Brighton all have to win (yes draws are theoretical, but not in all the games.)

But all those teams, listed above, are currently above us.

Its not happening.

The gut asks:-

Please explain your workings morty - Do your calculations prove it''s possible or not possible? I understand you have decreed "Its not happening" but not sure on the rest of the post.[/quote]Mathematically its possible.If we go up automatic, I shall donate £500 to Eddies pups.Thats how likely I think it is.And you knew that before you asked the question, didn''t you?[:)]

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Mr Apples wrote the following post at 16/02/2017 12:31 PM:

It is mathematically impossible...it is however, arithmetically possible (however improbable).

Apples

Ah wise words from Apples. Too clever for me buddy, I don''t understand doh!

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So......Hoola han  solo will donate £500 if we win 12 out of 14 gamesMorty will donate £500 if we get automatic promotion.Morty will donate £50 if we reach the play offs.The original bet stands to win over £2000 if we get automatic promotion.If we don''t, I cover Wooster''s original bet of £20 to PUPs.Is that it so far?  Have I left anyone out?

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[quote user="Hoola Han Solo"]No, change that Lakey. Have me down as £1million if we finish in the top two.[/quote]Risky[:D]

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GP''s Beard wrote the following post at 16/02/2017 1:23 PM:

Yup I''m good for a couple of million. Arithmetically . Stick me down.

You''d be safer going mathematically cos thats impossible 😀

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