Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
YankeeCanary

End Of Season Prediction

Recommended Posts

Last season, a week or so before this date, I predicted where we would finish in the Premiership. My prediction was that we would be relegated with 32 points ( we achieved 33 ). This year I will again provide my predictions but with a few assumptions attached. The assumptions I make are as follows:

While there will be all kinds of speculation as to what action Worthington will take on securing additional PERMANENT signings ( attempting to secure Davenport or someone of equivalent ability and, in addition a good quality creative midfielder ), areas that most objective observers are now into their second season on and still hoping to see action taken, I will be extremely surprised if progress is made on either of these fronts. While the Davenport loan is working well at the moment we can only regard that as a short-term benefit. I suspect that we will drift in to the time when Davenport''s loan period is coming to a close still wondering if anything is happening in terms of a permanent signing and all hopes will rest on trying to secure his services ( or a replacement ) as a loan for the remainder of the season. My assumption is that we will have to take some action because the thought of Fleming coming back in would be a backward step. Shackell is a question mark which Worthy will continue to manage in his inimitable way. It''s great that Doherty is playing so well at the moment but we really need three good players to keep things competitive and cover inevitable injuries from time to time. Please note that I am deliberately leaving Fleming out of even that equation. I think no further action on acquiring a good quality creative midfielder will take place. I am hopeful that McKenzie will eventually return to the fold with good attitude and that Ashton''s current difficulties are short-term and that he is back to form within the next 2-3 weeks.

I had predicted on this board where we would be after 10 games, mid-table with 15 points. We fell short of that target. Here are my predictions until the end of the season that I had made out for myself prior to the Hull game. I had predicted points we would achieve in each of 9 game blocks. I had assumed we would beat Hull ( on the record as at least Zippers will attest to ) but only tie Brighton. Given that we have now won that game, I''ve added the additional points in.

1st block of 9 games - 13 points ( includes Hull and Brighton )

2nd block of 9 games - 13 points

3rd block of 9 games  - 15 points

4th block of 9 games  - 13 points

If this prediction is accurate I believe we will finish the season in 9th place with 69 points. Of course, when my ear is glued to the radio each game I am, as always, hoping that we play incredibly well and stuff the opposition. However, unlike some, I am able to separate my hope and optimism that exists for each match from objective perspective as to how we will likely fare given the way our club is being managed and inconsistency of performance. I am encouraged by some recent performances, as we all are, but remind myself that we still have difficulty playing hard for 90 minutes and have won only two home games out of seven. Our victories are from having beaten only Plymouth, Hull and Brighton ( all teams which will no doubt be engaged in relegation avoidance as the season progresses ) and a very poor Ipswich team. Goodness knows how they are above us in the standings. Okay, I''m on the record. Let''s see what some others think.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We will be in the Play off positions. 80 points.

Win play off final with a really dodgy penalty in injury time over Sheff Utd.

Neil Warnock then resigns due to ill health.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

[quote]We will be in the Play off positions. 80 points. Win play off final with a really dodgy penalty in injury time over Sheff Utd. Neil Warnock then resigns due to ill health.[/quote]

...am I right in thinking that the 05/06 Pay off final is to be held at the new Wembley?  If so, I''d certainly settle for promotion via the play offs....doubt we''ll get too many other chances to play there!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Top six finish, which position I don''t really know!!!!  Automatic promotion seems a distant hope at the moment.  Too many points being dropped at home.  I have to agree with the thought of a dodgy penalty in extra time in the play off final, still will make up for the Birmingham defeat four years ago.

We will be in the top six, iv''e no doubt.  Lets wait and see.  69 point finish - Bag of Shite, 75+....

Lets just get behind the team and worthy and keep our fingers crossed

NCFC Forever!!!!!

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yankee - very interesting and thoughtful comments.

However, I think there are likely to be one or two additional permanent signings in January but sadly, a high risk of one or two going the other way unless we are considerably better placed than currently.

I don''t think that Fleming is out of the equation as far as Worthington is concerned. I think we might see him back if either Davenport leaves or he or Doherty gets injured.

Frankly, given where we have been over the past few weeks I would be reasonably happy with 9th but am hopeful we might manage more (as I suspect you are also - with your non-analytical, supporter''s hat on?).

Concerning playing for 90 minutes, I am not sure I agree. Last season our problem seemed to be getting going in first half. The last couple of games we have played really well first half then seemed to struggle second, but no more than we did in the promotion season when there were constant complaints of sitting on leads and defending too deep, from what I recall. I am not sure there are any teams that play consistently for 90 minutes week in, week out - even Chelsea get criticized for not doing this. In the promotion season, the key things for me were having almost no significant injuries and getting good results when playing poorly (I remember beating Nottingham Forest at home, as one example where Svenson scored from a Henderson cross, on the day it was confirmed Huckerby was joining us - wasn''t it?)

I agree that we have been inconsistent but I don''t think that whether we win or not relates to the quality of the opposition in front of us but is down to ourselves. I think we can beat any team in this division on our day (and could probably lose to any team also!). Personally, I feel that a lot of the problems have been down to confidence and hopefully those are being addressed. I am really encouraged that we have won our last two away games. I think we will pick up points at home and if we can get more away wins, this could be crucial.

Personally, I feel that we as fans have to take part of the responsibility for poor home performances. Inside the ground (and certainly round me), I think we have been too quick to criticize the team, in general, and certain players in particular - Henderson, Fleming and Doherty have all suffered this treatment. I don''t think this has helped. I think it''s fair enough for people to complain here but in the ground, we need to get behind the team and do our part in making Carrow Road a tough place for other teams to visit. I wasn''t at the Hull game, but from what I could get from the radio commentary, the atmosphere seems to have changed for the better too. Hopefully, the better results and increased confidence of fans and players will all create a kind of spiral of improving performance!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think this is possibly the most wide open div 1 ever. The league table is incredible with 2 wins between play-offs and relegation zone. Pre-season I thought Wolves, Leeds and Palace were the main threats, but none of them are putting any consistency together. Of the 2 clear at the top, have n''t seen Sheff U yet, but Reading didn''t look particularly convincing last week, and have a pretty small squad.

Barring injuries to key players, I''d predict about 5th, but lets be honest, anything could happen...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I''ve consulted Mrs Dan on this who often goes to see a medium (though the woman looks more like an extra large to me).Her thoughts are that " we shall be in a dark and black country, possibly on a date that has the significant numbers 3,4,5 - in that sequence (you may have to add some noughts to that figure to work out the hidden code). A terrific battle with a large number of wild dogs shall follow whereby the colours gold and green shall figure large. All this to occur at the hour the sun rises to it''s highest point in the sky "End of season prediction ? Load of old rubbish if you ask me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oddly I am in the position of not being sure where we are likely to end the season.   Las year I predicted a final day relegation going down on goal difference in 18th position - so like YC I was not too far off.

This season, it is still too soon to tell.  Worthy has now spotted his best 11 (not found last season - he got close from the manure game onwards but look at the impact shacks and doc may have had - saved us from relegation methinks (and have for months...)) and they are performing well, but has not yet been successful against the better teams in the league, who we are to face soon.  

Shacks and davenport are identikit players and I prefer our homegrown version so will not be worried if Calum does not sign, but I will be if Flem takes his spot back in the side.  More worrying is the midfield which is woefully short of quality and even short in numbers.  At least 2 signings are needed to make us real automatic promotion candidates.  The strikers will come good once they are fit to take a field again!  Despite Deanos lack of form he still has 5 goals and its a long while since any city strikers started with that sort of haul. 

I am confident that we will finish in the top half of the table but not sure beyond that.

I think my assessment of the season remains the same - auto promotion is an excellent season, play off spot is a good performance, par is top 8,  and anything else is woefully under-performing and is a sackable offence for Worthy, given the talent in the squad.

Without analysis auto promotion is still a definite possibility but feel that the best we will do is a play off spot - 5th is my current prediction - but that is based on optimism not any fact based analysis.  Ask me again at the end of Oct ad we will know so much more...   

 OTBC

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Too many unknowns - significant injuries, signings, consistency, etc!

Essentially we do not have a squad with enough quality or size to be sure of promotion prospects. We have a backbone of a few very good players, but each week they are playing with others of lesser ability.

IF the squad is not improved in January, even with average injuries I fear that we shall struggle to reach the play-offs, and I would suggest 8th/9th would be our position.

IF we have significant injuries - to to one or two of Safri, Hux, or Ashton, and if Flem is restored to the defence, then I am confident we would struggle to make the play-offs.

On a more positive note, if we were able to sign Davenport, or someone similar, if we we found another striker with pace and control and if we found a midfielder like Koumas or Sidwell - a threat from any position, then you would have to bet on a play-off place. We have seen Reading, admittedly without Sidwell and Kitson, and other highly placed teams, and we would have to rate our chances. We have six points to earn against Sheff Utd, so would you bet against automatic promotion, even?

In the end, however, the largest uncertainty, is which Norwich City will play - the first half from Saturday, or the other who barely turn up. The manager may berate the latter, but he must learn how to encourage them to play 90 minutes at their best, week-in and week-out!

In the light of allowable transfer budgets, possible injuries, and the problem the manager has to achieve consistency, I suggest a borderline play-off place, with luck perhaps deciding which side we fall.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Zipper- I am with you in that I have no idea where we will finish. I have been surprised by how poorly we started and continue to be disppointed at how we fail to dominate and concede too much possession.

However I feel that anything outside the Top 6 is a sackable offence, unlike your top 8. With the funds and players we have a play off spot should be there for the taking. If it is not achieved then that is a dramatic underperformance and shows that Nigel cannot be relied upon to get us back into the Prem. he has now had experience of both Champs and Prem football, has an England U21 striker, an England goalkeeper and a talismanic striker/left winger, a terrier in the midfield, a NI international, a highly rated right back from PSV and Champ quality elsewhere in spade loads. Excuses will have to be convincing if we fail with that lot.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

[quote]Zipper- I am with you in that I have no idea where we will finish. I have been surprised by how poorly we started and continue to be disppointed at how we fail to dominate and concede too much possess...[/quote]

Hi Tumbleweeed, I allowed 8th to be not sackable, but with a mental note that would be acceptable with extended injuries to key players - hux, safri, deano for example - so truly bad luck, not the ''bad luck'' experienced so far this season.

In reality anything less than a play off spot is a failure this year.

OTBC 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

top two is a realistic target and thats still where we should aim for. We are many point behind but: This league has so many more games, if we are consistent enough then its still up for grabs + i still believe we have the best squad in the league

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If we went up via the play-offs we would, of course, be thrilled (although we''d probably come straight back down again based on Worthington''s ability). With the squad we''ve got, we have the players to finish in the top two, even with him in charge! This is an incredibly poor CCC this season, with only Wolves and Sheffield United looking like a half-decent team.   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...