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Moneyball

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The human element let''s everything down. Whether that''s in statistical input, analysing the data or carrying out informed instructions.

There''s no pretence from me. I am only qualified to clean bogs. But at least I managed to post my own words without having to resort to the trusty old copy and paste that need a degree.

Still ..

Players gonna play, play, play, play, play

Haters gonna hate, hate, hate, hate, hate

Fakers gonna fake, fake, fake, fake, fake

I''m just gonna shake, shake, shake, shake, shake

Shake it off, shake it off....

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Nigel

"The human element let''s everything down. Whether that''s in statistical input, analysing the data or carrying out informed instructions. "

Yep, very much agree, some changes in personnel required.

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"All this data is fine, sadly it must be the human element that lets us down when it comes to recruitment Nigel"I think this involves a misunderstanding. Analytics is not simply about collecting stats, which humans then look at, leading to their subsequently making (hopefully better) informed decisions. The aim of the analytic models (e.g. as used at Brentford) is to vastly reduce, if not totally eliminate, the reliance on humans (scouts watching players etc.) in making recruitment decisions. An analogy would be computer-controlled trades on a stockmarket, where a buy or sell order is generated by software configured to do exactly that when certain market conditions are realised. Warburton parted company with Benham at Brentford precisely because he believed his managerial judgement was being undervalued by Benham''s approach.That''s about recruitment, but similar strategies are being continually developed with regard to on-field decision making too, for example substitutions. The idea that making a substitution (the timing, the area, the particular player) is simply a matter of managerial instinct as he watches from the touchline is far removed from the process that actually occurs at the top levels of the modern game. The truth is that every aspect of the game has been undergoing this sort of reappraisal over many years even if those watching from the stands remain largely unaware of it, bless ''em.

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Westie''s evaluation is typically good.

Italian clubs have embraced analytics over an extended period and Norwich have had access to many of the major programmes and information over an extended period as Nutella notes.

There remains a valuable human element however. As with science or retrospective history, there is a value judgment to be made is where the camera points, which stats are selected, which factors are applied the most weight and - in my view crucially - the context in which the information is gathered, interpreted and then applied to the actualite''.

There are times when a safe, short, slow pass is the right option and other occasions when precisely the same action is a dereliction of duty, an avoidance of responsibility within the management of the game. The algorithms used in the most sophisticated current systems offer insights far beyond anything on offer even a few short years ago, though an eye for the situational nuances such as that highlighted remain of value if the interpreter is gifted.

The use and - crucially - integration of such systems and information with tactics, player recruitment, positional analysis, neurological bias and tendencies, club philosophy, investment and the defence against the false friend of experience, is however absolutely fundamental to modern sport and part of daily operations.

Parma

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Grazie Ron...😉

''Pep Confidential'' openly discusses how the analytics are used in everyday football (The Numbers Game was a good intro some time ago), though Westie note how his very close trusted team analyses matches, film and specifically edIted film repeatedly and methodically in advance and then alongside analytics as both a compare and contrast option offering validation or otherwise a critical friend alternative.

I would certainly advise analytics as a tool for boards and owners as a benchmark and ongoing barometric judgment and litmus test if you will for managers: ''the stats say x, why are you doing y''?

As a manager I would value and welcome this empirical process - which should form an intrinsic part of the development of club identity and philosophy - and would have nothing to fear from it. One because I have embraced analytics for many years and two because I can still add considerable value to the analytics, both in terms of recruitment and psychologically and tactically with the players.

Parma

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[quote user="Parma Ham gone mouldy"]Grazie Ron...😉

''Pep Confidential'' openly discusses how the analytics are used in everyday football (The Numbers Game was a good intro some time ago), though Westie note how his very close trusted team analyses matches, film and specifically edIted film repeatedly and methodically in advance and then alongside analytics as both a compare and contrast option offering validation or otherwise a critical friend alternative.

I would certainly advise analytics as a tool for boards and owners as a benchmark and ongoing barometric judgment and litmus test if you will for managers: ''the stats say x, why are you doing y''?

As a manager I would value and welcome this empirical process - which should form an intrinsic part of the development of club identity and philosophy - and would have nothing to fear from it. One because I have embraced analytics for many years and two because I can still add considerable value to the analytics, both in terms of recruitment and psychologically and tactically with the players.

Parma[/quote]Parma, if Neil is relieved of his duties this week, will you apply for the role? [:)]

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[quote user="Parma Ham gone mouldy"]I prefer to be headhunted Lupo.

Perhaps I''ll invest and make the Sporting Director role my caveat.

Parma[/quote]Don''t tease... [:)]

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Parma posted;

I would certainly advise analytics as a tool for boards and owners as a benchmark and ongoing barometric judgment and litmus test if you will for managers: ''the stats say x, why are you doing y''?

Parma thanks for the reply. The above quote from your reply makes me ask the question that do you see our board using analytics in this way or are they more persuaded by their ''gut feel'' so to speak? I am of the opinion, and yes its just my opinion and no way a basis of fact, that our Board do not have the footballing knowledge to understand what these analysis''s offer. As you have stated many times we are undoubtedly missing a Director of Football with our current management structure, with a seemingly very niave manager. If a more rounded manager with ample experience were in charge I would doubt that he would be accepting of a DOF. Unless the whole management of the club is overhauled and, by that I mean from the very pinnacle to the manager, I cannot see the club heading in the right direction.

We are being led by a BOD with no football experience from the playing or coaching side and we are expecting them to make the correct decisions in managerial appointments. What criteria can than they use other than reading of a managers experience and the gut feel I mentioned earlier. Not the best way of making the right choice IMO.

Anyway, ramble over, Parma thanks again for your posts, you make a lot more sense than anything our club and media says to us. Parma for Director of Football should become a mantra our supporters take up and it should be No1 trending on twitter! #Parma!!!!!!

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[quote user="nutty nigel"]The human element let''s everything down. Whether that''s in statistical input, analysing the data or carrying out informed instructions.

There''s no pretence from me. I am only qualified to clean bogs. But at least I managed to post my own words without having to resort to the trusty old copy and paste that need a degree.

Still ..

Players gonna play, play, play, play, play

Haters gonna hate, hate, hate, hate, hate

Fakers gonna fake, fake, fake, fake, fake

I''m just gonna shake, shake, shake, shake, shake

Shake it off, shake it off....[/quote]Copy and paste huh? So just how much of my OP was copy and paste oh great oracle?I''m not looking to get published in the Journal of Sport and Health Science so there''s no need for me to use a referencing system. But at the same time if I can find other articles that agree with the point I''m trying to make I''m going to quote them, and I haven''t ever tried to hide that fact. However if you feel like you need to passive aggressively keep pretending that you know it all and it works for you old boy, you carry on.

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I just post my opinion on what I have seen. You copy and paste others opinions and examples. Neither of us is worth reading like others on this thread. Its turning into a decent thread now dont you think?

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Ron, it''s been quite a while since I worked for NCFC and I don''t doubt much has been learnt since I moved to make my fortune elsewhere.

The dreadful phrase ''we let the manager manage'' has been uttered on multiple occasions since and I remain concerned that a Chinese wall wall between artificially-defined football and non-football roles and functions continue to allow for unnecessary mystique in either direction.

Moneyball, finance, analytics, tactics, conditioning, neuroscience, nutrition, recreation, recovery, physiology, environment, pastoral and education are all areas that both require and benefit from joined-up thinking and open information-sharing.

The ongoing development, usage, importance and shared understanding of such factors cannot and must not be left to the whims of whoever the current head coach lightning rod is.

Indeed the more established and intertwined such elements are in the daily operational functioning of our £100m business, the less our club philosophy, direction and progression is affected by any single manager.

Furthermore the better such an approach is established the clearer the requirements for any incoming head coach are, the more defined the search can be when the necessity arises and higher the odds of finding suitable candidates (who may then end up staying in position longer) to fit our ever-reinforced philosophy and over-arching approach to club development.

It is actually rather the opposite of ''letting the manager manage'' with all its erratic, character-driven idiosyncrasies.

Parma

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Parma, I think David McNally understood this hence the football board idea. Now its difficult to see where that initiative is. McNally, although constantly criticised, found ways to keep the fans more informed than we are now. Moxey hasn''t really devulged anything about strategy. Have you any idea of Moxey''s direction for the club?

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Nutella,

NCFC pay their CEO very well and it is a prime football job. Norwich can compete well the best at £1.5m per annum and CEO can develop quite a powerful, autonomous position.

Jez Moxey arrived at something of an awkward time with baggage in front of him and behind him. It might be observed that he has remained close the owners - where the power ultimately lies - and has commented and involved himself relatively little on football matters.

This may be a circumspect and considered approach, though it would not be unreasonable that note that the club is in a possibly pivotal historical position and that time and circumstances may be moving (or have moved) against us.

When is ''letting the manager manage'' an active philosophy and when is it a passive dereliction of duty?

Parma

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It seems to me there are three questions here. Firstly, does the kind of statistical analysis that works with other more regimented sports also apply to the rather free-flowing football, where a game could at least theoretically  start and then carry on for 45 minutes without any kind of break, stop for tea and crumpets, and then carry on again for aother 45 uninterrupted minutes? I ask because one of the bibles on this, The Numbers Game, gives an example that is meant to back up this concept that is so blindly stupid it cuts away the ground from the whole idea. I also ask because I know this kind of analysis works in cricket, but then cricket is way closer to baseball than it is to football.Secondly, even if so, to how much can the finer points of football be analysed beyond what is apparent to the naked eye of the professional observer?Thirdly, leaving aside analysis in general, is IMPECT (oh gawd , these names they come up with) any good?  The OP seems based on what is essentially a critical-free zone advertising puff for IMPECT. Not least in the way it favourably compares IMPECT to absurdly simplistic previous models of analysis  that give the scorer all the credit for a goal rather than acknowledging the role of the providers(s). No one does that anymore. Apparently IMPECT actually pays attention to passes before the goal is scored. Wow! Groundbreaking or what?!I would also be more impressed by an IMPECT analysis of a game other than Germany 7 Brazil 1, where you had a technically briiliant (in an unshowy European way) team beat an - as usual way overpraised and over-evaluated - and quickly psychologically damaged Brazil team.

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McNally was close to the owners. Delia said he was the most important person at the club throughout the time he was here. McNally was honest and to my eyes they seemed a great match or team if you like. I''m not getting the same feeling about Moxey. It may well be he will prove his worth but right now he''s not inspiring me in the way McNally did.

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[quote user="Parma Ham gone mouldy"]When is ''letting the manager manage'' an active philosophy and when is it a passive dereliction of duty?

Parma[/quote]An interesting question, Parma. Essentially, the equation is simple: is it more of a risk to leave the manager ''in situ'' than it is to remove him? Every fan sits somewhere on that dichotomy, from those who will back the manager regardless, to those who want him out from the moment he arrived and scream ''I TOLD YOU SO!'' when he is eventually chopped.The price of failure is more pronounced than it has ever been, with the ever-widening financial gulf between Premiership television rights and the rest. What may fans do not factor in, is that changing the manager involves considerable upheaval behind the scenes, a complete change of coaching and support staff, new tactics, techniques and training regimes, and (if you''re lucky) a complete footballing philosophy to implement.Until recently I applauded the board for not blinking too soon, and I was sympathetic of their desire to keep the club in ''safe hands'' that they knew would nevre sell the club down the river. But if the club''s trajectory continues, the stagnation could ironically see us begging, cap in hand, for financial injections to keep us afloat as we struggle to stay self-sufficient in the Championship or worse.In summary, I feel the next couple of weeks could be pivotal in the club''s future, as even the most passive and trusting of supporters must be beginning to question whether the active philosophy is now a dereliction of duty. The deafening silence from the corridors of power will end one way or another, but surely the board are aware that the longer they keep the ceremonial sword in its sheath, the more the supporters'' anger will spread beyond Alex Neil and be directed at the boardroom.

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So when Neil Adams resigned the club had a clear alternative strategy in place and McNally made it happen. Same when Lambert left. Not so much when Hughton was sacked though. That appeared to me at the time as being a simple roll of the dice. This situation needs a strategy not a roll of the dice.

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To quote Feedthewolf '' But if the club''s trajectory continues, the stagnation could ironically see us begging, cap in hand, for financial injections to keep us afloat as we struggle to stay self-sufficient in the Championship or worse.''

That''s an excellent point and makes me wonder what the current board would do to alleviate the situation should we become stagnent in this league and losing money yearly, which at the moment is where we are heading. Will we go begging to the banks to extend our overdraft facilities and incur the punitive charges that would incur, would they be willing to let outside investment in, no matter where it comes from, or would they see us struggle to maintain a Championship position with every likelyhood of our main aim each season being to remain in the Championship. All conjecture I know and at times like this we tend to think the worse but its not unfathomable that we end up fighting to stay in this league as opposed to promotion! We been there before after all! We have the rest of this season and next where we will be finacially viable but after that we will undoubtably struggle to remain competitive. This is why IMO the longer we persist with the current set up in terms of the BOD, football management and the current playing staff the greater the risk of us becoming a lower champs/league 1 side we become. I feel we a reaching a Rubicon moment in the future of NCFC and positive action on all fronts is needed asap.

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"It seems to me there are three questions here.

Firstly, does the kind of statistical analysis that works with other

more regimented sports also apply to the rather free-flowing football,

where a game could at least theoretically  start and then carry on for

45 minutes without any kind of break, stop for tea and crumpets, and

then carry on again for another 45 uninterrupted minutes? .............................. Secondly, even if so, how much can the

finer points of football be analysed beyond what is apparent to the

naked eye of the professional observer? .........."Firstly, there isn''t just one, uniform, "kind of statistical analysis" applied to sports, nor are football analytics simply applications of statistical analysis. Secondly, it isn''t a question of having to apply "the kind of statistical analysis that works with other more regimented sports" to football; it''s a matter of developing an equally fruitful football-specific form of analysis. Thirdly, "what is apparent to the naked eye of the professional observer" is not constant but itself changes with the observer''s changing understanding of what he/she is observing. Where professional observers used to (and many fans still do) "see" little more that a ball being kicked around, they now "see" differing utilisations of space etc. etc. And fourthly, the fact that a "gifted interpreter" may still appreciate "situational nuances"
(Parma''s phrases) that elude capture by even the most sophisticated current systems of analysis, doesn''t show that such nuances are beyond analysis. As in the development of any form of explanatory theory, such lacunae are essential drivers of the on-going search for a better, more comprehensive and explanatorily more powerful theory. 

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Westcoast

" Where professional observers used to (and many fans still do) "see" little more that a ball being kicked around, they now "see" differing utilisations of space"

I find this a strange remark, the idea that historically professional observers of the game, didn''t really understand the patterns and were unable to critically analyse a game is absurd.

Maybe I''ve misunderstood what you are saying.

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