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The Great Drinkell

Short term or long term

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If we look at the short term - the team are going through a tough time, we have dropped out of the play off positions, lost 5 in a row, have some key players injured ie Howson & Pinto plus a few others slowly getting back from injury. - so you could say things are looking bleak.

But looking long term we have some very exciting younger players on the books, not only pressing the current first team players like the Murphy''s, Alex Pritchard and Louis Thompson to name a few. with Maddison getting good reviews up in Scotland. you then look below this at the u23''s and below suddenly the long term is starting to look a little rosier.

Now I don''t claim to know who is ultimately responsible for this (hopefully its a group rather than any individual), but from all accounts the younger teams are playing the same style/method/formation as the first team so players will hopefully integrate better as they progress which can only point to brighter horizons. what we need is a couple of wins and vital players coming back from injury and things will look a lot brighter, I''m fully behind the board and agree now isn''t the time to press the panic button.

Having said all the above I''m not saying everything is perfect either but show me a club where it is?

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Good post, and very much sums up how I feel about things. Especially the academy and youth development, people moan on about long term plans, but we are really starting to see this very thing come to fruition.We are in a transition just now, and not necessarily a bad one, but unfortunately it requires patience, which a lot of fans don''t have.

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So Morty do you think it would be better for the long term if we didnt get promoted this year.

I do by the way as I can''t see the kids getting a look in if we go up.

So now I am kind of thinking we should keep Alex because not getting promoted is a job I think he could do quite well :)

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[quote user="Bagster"]So Morty do you think it would be better for the long term if we didnt get promoted this year.

I do by the way as I can''t see the kids getting a look in if we go up.

So now I am kind of thinking we should keep Alex because not getting promoted is a job I think he could do quite well :)[/quote]I see what you''re saying, and I don''t disagree.Plenty won''t like that though.But I''m glad some fans are starting to see the bigger picture.

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Why is it important for the kids to get a look in ? They are after all no more than a means to an end.. to put it bluntly.If you are saying that they will need to continue to play first team football, which most aren''t at the moment, then simply another loan and see where both parties are come June 2018.As to the idea that we should wait another year that is idiotic. Like saying I''ll wait for the next lifeboat while the ship sinks below your feet - ie the parachute payments are far less next season.I would also add that the majority of the whingesr and whiners on here have an awful stench of bin about them, as pretty much all they have is the hope that we fail. That and the joy of having an abundance of empty seats to sit on at poorman road.

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Success breeds success and it''s delusional to think we can hold on to the good young players if we don''t get promoted in the short term.We might be able to hold on to them next season if we don''t go up this year but not if the likes of the Murphs et al are still performing well.then some prem teams will come calling and all the longer deals will get us is a bigger fee.

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While I don''t think every decision the club''s staff make is correct, the balance of short term pragmatism and longer term planning and development does give me hope there is a long term plan to survive, as well as the possibility to thrive. When the financial house of cards propping football up collapses, and even if it doesn''t, I feel we will be well placed to claim a seat at the top table.

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This is a good premise and deserves attention.

It could easily be observed that (at least) 3 categories exist to success at a football club: results in the present, development of an identity and philosophy throughout a club, the focus on sustainability via investment in young talent and providing pathways to the 1st team.

It would of course be ideal for all 3 to exist simultaneously. It would be perfect to find an algorithm - or a bottomless pit of money - that allowed or ensured they all fitted together seamlessly. In my experience they are not interdependent, which the OP hints at.

There are also clearly Managers (and indeed Boards and overall club approaches) that focus on one to the exclusion of others. Not all things may be possible.

To stereotype:

1. Harry Redknapp may buy good players, but does not carefully balance the books

2. Tony Pulis may get results above average with available resources, but does not adhere to entertaining principles

3. Steve Bruce may build a strong 1st Team, but may not spend time at Youth games

4. Dario Gradi may develop club-wide systems from youth level, but may not be able to handle highly-paid stars

Norwich are not going to win every game. They are unlikely - in line with all but 10 clubs - to be a stable Premier League club in the foreseeable future. They are unlikely to win either major cup, particularly as European pathways open up as a reward.

So what realistically - and avoiding treading the dangerous and delicate line of ''little old Norwich'' - should we work towards in the short and long term?

The board - in conjunction with Alex Neil - have actually given us the answer. They have made the strategic decision not to compete in fields where hey cannot win, but have rather taken the ''best available Christmas present for my Dad'' route.

If you have £20 to spend on your Dad, you cannot buy him the Porsche he wants, so you adjust your sights according to your budget and think of something that is lavish if you spend £20 on it. In this way a single cigar at £20 could be great.

You have to overpay at the level you aim at. Norwich have thus bid early and aggressively for young talent that has potential: Pritchard, Canos, Maddison, Thompson, Ebou, Godfrey et al.

They have paid ''over the odds'' - or beyond what Premier League teams would pay, for tomorrow''s talent.

The risk is clearly that the earlier you pounce, the more room there is for potential to not be realised (you are further away from the standard required for today) and also you are tying up funds that could be used to shore up your squad (and managerial position) today.

Club- building can of course be an endless jam-tomorrow unicorn at the end of the rainbow, though seasoned observers might well judge that Pritchard, Thompson, Maddison, Murphys et al represented something more than a just a lucky point in time , there is genuine quality that is (or almost is) ready for 1st Xi places, courtesy of a clear strategy.

This is certainly something that 25k can genuinely get behind, something that 11 random mercenaries playing long-ball 8-block football to stay in 15th place in the top tier season after season might not do.

Parma

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Really good post tbf. Puts a lot into perspective.

I think a lot depends how we handle the next 2 transfer windows (assuming we''ve not gone up). Need to shift plenty of deadwood and bring in younger hungrier players to help build once again.

Mixing this with promising youth coming through and the younger established first teamers already the future could be very rosey.

Big task for a recruitment team with a poor record so far.

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Good post Parma.The mantra really is that a lot of fans really need to calm the feck down.

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My question is the development of younger players, insomuch as I feel, at times, we stagnant growth. This is my personal opinion from watching games on tv and live. My examples would be Redmond and, most obviously, Brady. Redmond moved on, and now under a different set up seems to be thriving. Brady, bright start in that ''15 campaign but fell off and doesn''t seem to have recaptured that bright spark we saw back then and at the Euros.

If what you say is correct Parma, and it''s a very balanced piece, the youth we have "upcoming" are forging a path to first team action with the idea of them as investment pieces should they succeed in attracting Prem attention? However it is at this development stage with us where I''m still unconvinced. Unless of course we''re selling on a 65% completed package for example and act as a downsized S''Hampton?

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[quote user="Morgan"]My question is the development of younger players, insomuch as I feel, at times, we stagnant growth. This is my personal opinion from watching games on tv and live. My examples would be Redmond and, most obviously, Brady. Redmond moved on, and now under a different set up seems to be thriving. Brady, bright start in that ''15 campaign but fell off and doesn''t seem to have recaptured that bright spark we saw back then and at the Euros.

If what you say is correct Parma, and it''s a very balanced piece, the youth we have "upcoming" are forging a path to first team action with the idea of them as investment pieces should they succeed in attracting Prem attention? However it is at this development stage with us where I''m still unconvinced. Unless of course we''re selling on a 65% completed package for example and act as a downsized S''Hampton?[/quote]I think really the basic premise, as regards to the youth set up, is that it costs about a million a year to maintain. You''ll constantly churn out players, some will make the first team, some will be sold on, and maybe one day you''ll get that gem, like a Rooney, that you sell on for big money.I think it was very shrewd of the club to place such an importance on the whole scheme.

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Morgan, it may be hay selling on at a profit is not necessarily the aim.

Not unlike our stated aim to build with long term managers, we have developed a clear policy of not being a selling club. Thus the aim with such high potential young players is to develop, nurture and retain them for longer term first team roles.

It can be observed that expensive can oxymoronically become cheap in this way. At higher levels wages are far more onerous to club finances than transfer fees. Whilst high potential young players may well get higher wages relative to their origins following their transfer to Norwich - and this is somewhat giving away trade secrets - players you develop and progress within your own club rarely have the accelerated wage rates of established imported players (largely irrelevant of de-facto quality). Thus - if you get it right - you might well conversely be saving in the long term considerably by spending early. Any capital gain on a transfer (which would then logically be a sum you cannot turn down) would be incidental and an unplanned for bonus.

What you do need is a manager that is prepared to play such potential players. It is almost impossible for Manager to truly ''drop'' a ''read'' young player seamlessly into a higher level, some adjustment and learning on the job must take place. The manager thus takes a risk (including with his own job). In a results-takes-all Premier League scenario this is not realistically possible.

Parma

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Barney the reason I would wait for another lifeboat is because I can see the first one has a hole in it.

Loaning players out does not a team make:)

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Problem is, it''s nice to think long term but we don''t have the finance to do that.

Yes, we have some very promising young players...the Murphy''s, Godfrey, Thompson, Pritchard, Madison...

But without the premier league money being able to keep a category one academy on top of being able to turn down bids from low prem clubs for these players is pretty slim.

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[quote user="hogesar"]Problem is, it''s nice to think long term but we don''t have the finance to do that.

Yes, we have some very promising young players...the Murphy''s, Godfrey, Thompson, Pritchard, Madison...

But without the premier league money being able to keep a category one academy on top of being able to turn down bids from low prem clubs for these players is pretty slim.[/quote]The plan is coupled with yo-yoing, I would imagine.

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[quote user="Bagster"]Barney the reason I would wait for another lifeboat is because I can see the first one has a hole in it.

Loaning players out does not a team make:)[/quote]The lifeboats being parachute payments which decrease each season, and last for three years only. Your comment about a hole does not equate with what the analogy.It is patently absurd to state (as above) that promotion should be

determined by the need to see how a few younger players might progress.If loaning out players is not such a good idea why ais Maddison at Aberdeen, Toffolo at Scunthorpe and Mathews at Hamilton, why were both Murphys out on loan the season before ?

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Can I say, great OP and great opinion pieces from folks. So thanks for that. This is why I signed up to the Pink Un in the first place! Makes for interesting debate

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[quote user="hogesar"]Problem is, it''s nice to think long term but we don''t have the finance to do that.

Yes, we have some very promising young players...the Murphy''s, Godfrey, Thompson, Pritchard, Madison...

But without the premier league money being able to keep a category one academy on top of being able to turn down bids from low prem clubs for these players is pretty slim.[/quote]
Just as important as finance, the question for me is whether the club''s supporters are actually capable of getting behind such a longer term project. As Parma says, the strategy is one that 25,000 Carrow Road faithful should be able to buy into. But is there enough backbone in the boardroom to stand firm if they don''t?

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[quote user="Morgan"]Can I say, great OP and great opinion pieces from folks. So thanks for that. This is why I signed up to the Pink Un in the first place! Makes for interesting debate[/quote]Its here occasionally, if you look hard enough.[:)]

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[quote user="westcoastcanary"][quote user="hogesar"]Problem is, it''s nice to think long term but we don''t have the finance to do that.

Yes, we have some very promising young players...the Murphy''s, Godfrey, Thompson, Pritchard, Madison...

But without the premier league money being able to keep a category one academy on top of being able to turn down bids from low prem clubs for these players is pretty slim.[/quote]
Just as important as finance, the question for me is whether the club''s supporters are actually capable of getting behind such a longer term project. As Parma says, the strategy is one that 25,000 Carrow Road faithful should be able to buy into. But is there enough backbone in the boardroom to stand firm if they don''t?
[/quote]I think still having 25k in league one answers that question.

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Only the best young players will break through, be purchased or be retained in the team upon promotion to the Premier.

Mercenaries, weapons and short term horses-for-courses will be the realpolitik order of the day upon re-promotion to the Premier. Such players may be expensive shite elephant liabilities (and quite possibly ill-suited and conversely ineffective)?upon relegation to the lower level.

The younger player investment is longer term in the hope they do develop into top tier quality, though they will inevitably be offered more chances at the lower level. They will likely be offered more slack, loyalty and support from the fans, who may invest in them more willingly than ''failed'' players who have dropped down a level. Such ''failed'' players exist across multiple clubs and some are still considered ''Premier'' and have increased wages to match.

The cynical will note that a progression from ''expensive'' and ''failed'' nay be organically replaced with young, potential and de-facto much cheaper (especially in wage terms).

Such back stop planning thus acts simultaneously as a two-tier strategy. Whether this is low-ambition ''doing it in the cheap'' or sensible succession planning coupled with financial prudence depends on your expectations and perspective.

Running a good business involves looking in the mirror and trying to see the reflection as it is, rather than what you might wish it to be.

Parma

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I''m not sure if it is a case of backbone, as that suggests that the club could simply change track and generate the ''immediate'' success the fans would appear to be wanting.For all the gripes on here I don''t hear the same outside of this forum.The immediate aim is, and has to be, promotion. However for the cost of one or two players wages we can maintain the acadamy. And for the price of an average journey man we can find players like Maddison. But that needs a good scouting network and the back up of top coaching.So far I see nothing to suggest we don''t have these or the plans in place to continue.

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[quote user="Barney Rabble"]I''m not sure if it is a case of backbone, as that suggests that the club could simply change track and generate the ''immediate'' success the fans would appear to be wanting.For all the gripes on here I don''t hear the same outside of this forum.The immediate aim is, and has to be, promotion. However for the cost of one or two players wages we can maintain the acadamy. And for the price of an average journey man we can find players like Maddison. But that needs a good scouting network and the back up of top coaching.So far I see nothing to suggest we don''t have these or the plans in place to continue.[/quote]Very much agree with this, this forum is definitely not representative of wider opinion.

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Surely finances will dictate our future?

Parma great post, but as said if we run up debt over the next few seasons and no investment then short term and long term will be structured to financial restructuring and restraints?

It''s pretty clear we really need to go up in the next two seasons or we will be looking to sell off assets in young players and possibly realignment of our youth facilities.

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