Whats wrong with people?

[Hank shoots Skyler 2,094]

Fair enough! I originally had the impression that mine and Jim''s input had triggered your post.

[Red Rufus 56]

Having been a longstanding regular reader and a lightweight poster I have to say Morty appears to be an open minded realist going by his posts.........no I am not related and haven''t a clue who he is but he posts a lot less cr*p than many of the posters, usually giving a balanced view with a nice touch of irony at times whilst also appearing to understand football unlike a fair few on here who shall remain nameless!

[morty 0]

Cheers mum.[;)]

[Katie Borkins 1]

If only you weren''t so short, Mort ☺

[morty 0]

[quote user="Katie Borkins"]If only you weren''t so short, Mort ☺[/quote][:D][;)]

[Red Rufus 56]

What time will yer be home for tea love? Oops sorry, that was a giveaway.

[morty 0]

[quote user="Red Rufus"]What time will yer be home for tea love? Oops sorry, that was a giveaway.[/quote][:D]

[Red Rufus 56]

If you are late you can sort those idiots on Vital Naarridge out, they are a rum old crowd bor!

[7rew 0]

The problem people have is that quite recently we have had a sustained period of above expectation results using high variance tactics, and those happen to be more exciting for the crowd.

Football is a game of luck, since there are enough things you can''t control involved. However you can influence the expected goal difference in a match (I expect to win by 1 or lose by 2) and the variance of that number (but it could be 1 either side of that or it''ll be between -3 and +5).

When you are likely to score less than the opposition then you want a high variance to help get wins, when you are likely to score more than the opposition, then low variance is your friend. Low variance can also help avoid big defeats when it is tight. The key part is the number of matches that at our above 0 goal difference, since that gets you points. Broadly speaking, the more goals in a match, the higher the variance is.

Under Lambert in the premier league, we were a couple of goals worse than other teams, so we needed high variance, ultra attacking football to get wins, and we ended at the top end of where we reasonably could be.

In Hughton''s first season, we were better and not behind a lot of teams. So we benefited from lower variance, tighter tactics. We ended up at the high end of where we could reasonably be. The next season was basically the same tactics but was not as lucky, we probably were below our average position, but not stupidly so.

Alex Neil has tried both. He tried both in the prem last season, being put of the high variance stuff by Newcastle. The low varience stuff worked a bit after that, but mostly we weren''t close enough to other teams to get enough wins with it.

This season, we are better than other teams, so I expect to see us playing low variance football going for a between 1-3 goal win, rather than all out attack to possibly get a 5 goal win at the risk of a 1 goal loss.

With these tactics the question is do you feel lucky punk?

Frankly it always is.

[morty 0]

Luck?There was a golfer who said, along the lines of "You know what, the harder I practise, the luckier I get".

[hogesar 9,654]

[quote user="nutty nigel"]Everybody believes their opinion is realistic so using realism as a tag to somehow enforce your own opinion Is pretty pointless. Even with the realism tag most of us are wrong more than we''re right. I bet Highland thought he was being realistic when he predicted we''d finish 14th in our last champs season....[/quote]

Is this the same Highland who said we wouldn''t get promoted last time unless we got Lennon in as manager?

The same Highland who thinks we should have built a team around Hooper? Who, incidentally, has less goals than Jerome and Jacob Murphy this season...

My realistic opinion is Highland doesn''t have a clue [:D]

[morty 0]

[quote user="hogesar"][quote user="nutty nigel"]Everybody believes their opinion is realistic so using realism as a tag to somehow enforce your own opinion Is pretty pointless. Even with the realism tag most of us are wrong more than we''re right. I bet Highland thought he was being realistic when he predicted we''d finish 14th in our last champs season....[/quote]

Is this the same Highland who said we wouldn''t get promoted last time unless we got Lennon in as manager?

The same Highland who thinks we should have built a team around Hooper? Who, incidentally, has less goals than Jerome and Jacob Murphy this season...

My realistic opinion is Highland doesn''t have a clue [:D]

[/quote][:D][Y]

[7rew 0]

The more you practice the more you stack the dice in your favour. You don''t get to stop rolling them.

Tactics are just another way to stack the dice.

Without luck we have to acknowledge that Dean Coney intended to score with his arse.

[morty 0]

[quote user="7rew"]The more you practice the more you stack the dice in your favour. You don''t get to stop rolling them.

Tactics are just another way to stack the dice.

Without luck we have to acknowledge that Dean Coney intended to score with his arse.[/quote]H practised it training.True story.

[Ginja 26]

[quote user="hogesar"]

My realistic opinion is Highland doesn''t have a clue [:D]

[/quote]

Do any of us though? I think realistically speaking very few can honestly claim such a thing, I don''t take issue with people having an opinion, its more how they present said opinion. Fair enough if someone wants to predict a mid table finish, this is a competitive league and it''s not entirely unrealistic, but going around being rude and arrogant about it is where an opinion falls down for me.

[morty 0]

[quote user="Ginja"][quote user="hogesar"]

My realistic opinion is Highland doesn''t have a clue [:D]

[/quote]

Do any of us though? I think realistically speaking very few can honestly claim such a thing, I don''t take issue with people having an opinion, its more how they present said opinion. Fair enough if someone wants to predict a mid table finish, this is a competitive league and it''s not entirely unrealistic, but going around being rude and arrogant about it is where an opinion falls down for me.

[/quote]I think some peoples personal brand of realism seems to be more about setting low targets, so they aren''t disappointed if it all goes wrong. And thats fine, but some also feel the need to constantly, and quite often unfairly, do the team, or individual players down, just so it fits into their low target.This is manifested by a lot of them going missing when we win, where they really should be happy, and praising a job well done. The whole thing has become more about being right, than praising when its due, and criticising if appropriate.

[king canary 7,599]

Highland is basically a troll though. I''ve not been totally positive on us of late but some of his posts take the biscuit.

I remember a few years ago he predicted QPR (who were bottom of the table) to suddenly pick up about 20 points from 12 games and relegate us as we basically lost every single game. We finished nearly 20 points above them.

His posts have zero relation to realism.

[Katie Borkins 1]

If you constantly predict gloom and doom then many will see you as being realistic.

Others will serve you as a Binners.

Others will see you as a parody of a miserable old sod.

[hogesar 9,654]

[quote user="Ginja"][quote user="hogesar"]

My realistic opinion is Highland doesn''t have a clue [:D]

[/quote]

Do any of us though? I think realistically speaking very few can honestly claim such a thing, I don''t take issue with people having an opinion, its more how they present said opinion. Fair enough if someone wants to predict a mid table finish, this is a competitive league and it''s not entirely unrealistic, but going around being rude and arrogant about it is where an opinion falls down for me.

[/quote]

I don''t know. All I do know is I didn''t state categorically that unless we got Neil bloody Lennon in as a manager we''d finish mid-table in the championship last time.

Nothing wrong with opinions. Negative trolling for the sake of it, and people on here will pick up on it, and in my case, take the pee where possible [:)]

[Ginja 26]

[quote user="hogesar"]

I don''t know. All I do know is I didn''t state categorically that unless we got Neil bloody Lennon in as a manager we''d finish mid-table in the championship last time.

[/quote]

I think I also at the time claimed Lennon would be a good shout [:#] but tbf  I didn''t claim it quiet so staunchly as a certain poster!

Hindsight is  a wonderful thing [:D]

[morty 0]

[quote user="Ginja"][quote user="hogesar"]

I don''t know. All I do know is I didn''t state categorically that unless we got Neil bloody Lennon in as a manager we''d finish mid-table in the championship last time.

[/quote]

I think I also at the time claimed Lennon would be a good shout [:#] but tbf  I didn''t claim it quiet so staunchly as a certain poster!

Hindsight is  a wonderful thing [:D]

[/quote]Its not really just hindsight though. Personally I formed my opinion based on the fact I didn''t rate him. Now I''m not claiming football genius status, but I would love to know what Highland based his opinion on. I''m going to go out on a limb here and call "Well he couldn''t do no worse, could he?"

[......and Smith must score. 1,339]

[quote user="morty"][quote user="Ginja"][quote user="hogesar"]

My realistic opinion is Highland doesn''t have a clue [:D]

[/quote]

Do any of us though? I think realistically speaking very few can honestly claim such a thing, I don''t take issue with people having an opinion, its more how they present said opinion. Fair enough if someone wants to predict a mid table finish, this is a competitive league and it''s not entirely unrealistic, but going around being rude and arrogant about it is where an opinion falls down for me.

[/quote]I think some peoples personal brand of realism seems to be more about setting low targets, so they aren''t disappointed if it all goes wrong. And thats fine, but some also feel the need to constantly, and quite often unfairly, do the team, or individual players down, just so it fits into their low target.This is manifested by a lot of them going missing when we win, where they really should be happy, and praising a job well done. The whole thing has become more about being right, than praising when its due, and criticising if appropriate.[/quote]Against all the odds this has turned into a decent thread.[;)]Opinions are all about perception and therefore there can''t be a totally right or wrong opinion. I''m well known as a glass-half-empty fan, probably too much so, but as Morty says us pessimists have less far to fall if/when it all goes wrong.Take the Wigan game. I thought they should have won. The second half - barring Murphy''s goal - was dire and if it hadn''t been for three magnificent McGovern saves near the end Wigan wouldn''t have come away empty-handed. I can''t agree that I should be happy praising a job well done because we won, when having been two goals up so early we nearly let it slip.From the highlights I saw we played very well against Blackburn and we had a comfortable 1-0 win v Bristol City but for the most part we''ve not been at our best this season. To have averaged two points a game is a very good return but there seems to be some mo-jo missing and we need to get it back.Of course the six points are very welcome, and at the end of the day winning is what it''s all about, but the last two games have been very flat.

[morty 0]

[quote user="......and Smith must score."][quote user="morty"][quote user="Ginja"][quote user="hogesar"]

My realistic opinion is Highland doesn''t have a clue [:D]

[/quote]

Do any of us though? I think realistically speaking very few can honestly claim such a thing, I don''t take issue with people having an opinion, its more how they present said opinion. Fair enough if someone wants to predict a mid table finish, this is a competitive league and it''s not entirely unrealistic, but going around being rude and arrogant about it is where an opinion falls down for me.

[/quote]I think some peoples personal brand of realism seems to be more about setting low targets, so they aren''t disappointed if it all goes wrong. And thats fine, but some also feel the need to constantly, and quite often unfairly, do the team, or individual players down, just so it fits into their low target.This is manifested by a lot of them going missing when we win, where they really should be happy, and praising a job well done. The whole thing has become more about being right, than praising when its due, and criticising if appropriate.[/quote]Against all the odds this has turned into a decent thread.[;)]Opinions are all about perception and therefore there can''t be a totally right or wrong opinion. I''m well known as a glass-half-empty fan, probably too much so, but as Morty says us pessimists have less far to fall if/when it all goes wrong.Take the Wigan game. I thought they should have won. The second half - barring Murphy''s goal - was dire and if it hadn''t been for three magnificent McGovern saves near the end Wigan wouldn''t have come away empty-handed. I can''t agree that I should be happy praising a job well done because we won, when having been two goals up so early we nearly let it slip.From the highlights I saw we played very well against Blackburn and we had a comfortable 1-0 win v Bristol City but for the most part we''ve not been at our best this season. To have averaged two points a game is a very good return but there seems to be some mo-jo missing and we need to get it back.Of course the six points are very welcome, and at the end of the day winning is what it''s all about, but the last two games have been very flat.

[/quote]I would put you more as glass quarter empty[;)]

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

"Very flat" to describe a game when we take a 2-0 lead, they get a goal back on 86 mins, we score a 3rd, but they get another goal at the death to leave us hanging on for the final minutes of injury time.

 

Well, it''s a point of view I suppose.

[PurpleCanary 5,556]

[quote user="hogesar"][quote user="nutty nigel"]Everybody believes their opinion is realistic so using realism as a tag to somehow enforce your own opinion Is pretty pointless. Even with the realism tag most of us are wrong more than we''re right. I bet Highland thought he was being realistic when he predicted we''d finish 14th in our last champs season....[/quote]

Is this the same Highland who said we wouldn''t get promoted last time unless we got Lennon in as manager?

The same Highland who thinks we should have built a team around Hooper? Who, incidentally, has less goals than Jerome and Jacob Murphy this season...

My realistic opinion is Highland doesn''t have a clue [:D]

[/quote]

Highland is the miserabilist miserabilists read when they need tips on how to be even more miserable. I don''t think he knows nothing, but the obsessions with Hooper and Lennon did reveal a particular and irrational bias that destroyed his credibility. I am still amazed he hasn''t yet advocated us getting whoever does the sausage rolls at Celtic in to do the catering.

[Essjayess 307]

8th to 12th finish, thats what i expect, said at that start of June, if that happens i will be satisfied, anything higher will be very pleased, anything lower will be disapointed.Guys are right in saying next few weeks will be a truer measure of our season. Games such as away to Forest and Newcastle will tell us if Birmingham away was just an occasional lapse or one that will become to regular.Still to early to really get a sense of the season, who after 7 games would have predicted Barnsley to score 18 goals and Derby just 1?

[Crafty Canary 495]

Of course, he might just be an ardent City fan who loves winding up people on here. Rather like Just One David Sheepshank who used to post once to wind up the Binners and never responded to their posts of outrage before dropping his next bomb the next game.

[morty 0]

[quote user="Essjayess"]8th to 12th finish, thats what i expect, said at that start of June, if that happens i will be satisfied, anything higher will be very pleased, anything lower will be disapointed.Guys are right in saying next few weeks will be a truer measure of our season. Games such as away to Forest and Newcastle will tell us if Birmingham away was just an occasional lapse or one that will become to regular.Still to early to really get a sense of the season, who after 7 games would have predicted Barnsley to score 18 goals and Derby just 1?[/quote]If you don''t mind me asking, what is the main factor that makes you think we will finish between 8th and 12th?We have been a Premiership side for 4 out of the last 5 seasons, we have a very good quality squad, that we have not only retained, but added quality to.Who are the 7 or 11 teams that you think are better than us?

[Chemical Bro 0]

How dare iwan Roberts criticise the team over the lat 2 games........

What a moaner ey

[......and Smith must score. 1,339]

[quote user="morty"][I would put you more as glass quarter empty[;)][/quote]To be fair that''s mighty generous.....